the game within the game your expert preview of the … · 4 7 h miami 6.61 5 4 h indianapolis 6.43...

T H E G A M E W I T H I N T H E G A M EYOUR EXPERT PREVIEW OF THE

2018 NFL SEASON

T H E G A M E W I T H I N T H E G A M E

Betfair Australia and Champion Bets proudly team up to give you a comprehensive preview of the 2018 NFL season.

You’ll find analysis, including betting recommendations, for every major futures market. These include:• All 8 Divisions• AFC Championship• NFC Championship• Most Valuable Player• Super Bowl Winner

Champion Bets are one of the most respected, and transparent, betting syndicates in the world. Their expert NFL predictions come straight from the United States, through Scott Kellen, where the syndicate has made more than 7% profit on turnover through 15,000 advised bets.

As well as these futures predictions, Betfair will be sharing game previews from Champion Bets as well. You’ll find this exclusive content on the Betfair Hub for every Thursday Night, Sunday Night and Monday Night Football game. Plus the Playoffs.

We share content from winning punters because we want winning clients. Unlike bookies, Betfair is a low margin exchange like Airbnb. We don’t set the odds. Punters do.

Please enjoy our ultimate NFL eBook.

*All odds correct as of 13:00 03/09/18

Gamble responsibly.

INTRODUCTION


DIVISION SUMMARYThe reigning AFC champions have won the last nine divisional titles. It’s hard to see the Dolphins, Bills or Jets preventing 10 straight with Belichick and Brady still at the helm.

AFC EAST DIVISION

SUPERBOWL ODDS: $300AFC EAST ODDS: $17

GOOD• 5 of 8 games against proj. below .500 teams are at home• Host New England on a Monday night• Host Jacksonville off a bye• Bills were 5-1 as a non-divisional underdog of more than

3 points last year. 6 potential games this year.

BAD• Play 5 of first 6 games against teams projected to win

over 8 games. Also 6 of first 8 games.• 5 of 8 games against proj. above .500 teams are on the

road

PROJECTED WINSBased on projected lines they are calculated to win 6.41 games.

BUFFALO BILLSWK DAYS

BETWEEN HA OPPONENT Projected win for opponent

1 Baltimore 8.58

2 7 A LA Chargers 9.47

3 7 H Minnesota 9.87

4 7 A Green Bay 9.97

5 7 A Tennessee 7.77

6 7 H Houston 8.91

7 7 A Indianapolis 6.43

8 8 H New England 10.96

9 6 H Chicago 6.92

10 7 A NY Jets 6.14

11 Bye

12 14 H Jacksonville 9.34

13 7 A Miami 6.61

14 7 H NY Jets 6.14

15 7 H Detroit 7.63

16 7 A New England 10.96

17 7 H Miami 6.61


WK DAYSBETWEEN HA OPPONENT Projected win

for opponent

1 H Tennessee 7.77

2 7 A NY Jets 6.14

3 7 H Oakland 7.67


5 7 A Cincinnati 6.57

6 7 H Chicago 6.92

7 7 H Detroit 7.63

8 4 A Houston 8.91

9 10 H NY Jets 6.14


11 Bye


13 7 H Buffalo 6.41


15 7 A Minnesota 9.87


17 7 A Buffalo 6.41

AFC EAST DIVISION


GOOD• Travel to Indy off a bye week• Face the Jets who are off a Monday night game• Face the Vikings who are off a Monday night game• Only 6 games against teams proj. to win more than 8

games

BAD• Travel to Houston on a Thursday night• 3 of last 4 games against teams proj. to win more than 8

games• Face Chicago & Detroit in back to back weeks off their

bye weeks


SUPERBOWL ODDS: $7.6AFC EAST ODDS: $1.22

GOOD• Face only 6 teams projected to finish above .500• Play 3 straight home games early in the season• Host Indy on a Thursday night• Host both Minnesota and Green Bay• Travel to the Jets off their bye week• Host KC with extra rest off a Thursday night game and

3rd straight home game• Only a projected dog in one game—at Pittsburgh• Travel to Tennessee with Titans off a Monday night game

BAD• No perceived bad scheduling spots for NE—A pretty easy

schedule


MIAMI DOLPHINS

NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTSWK DAYS


1 H Houston 8.91

2 7 A Jacksonville 9.34

3 7 A Chicago 6.92

4 7 H Miami 6.61

5 4 H Indianapolis 6.43

6 10 H Kansas City 8.00

7 4 A Chicago 6.92

8 8 A Buffalo 6.41

9 6 H Green Bay 9.72


11 Bye

12 14 A NY Jets 6.14


14 7 A Miami 6.61

15 7 A Pitssburgh 9.91

16 7 H Buffalo 6.41

17 7 H NY Jets 6.14


SUMMARYThe odds tell the story here. One team is the Super Bowl favourite and the other three divisional rivals are at the bottom of the market.

The Patriots lost some significant talent in the offseason but they return with Belichick, Brady and Josh McDaniels. If their hall of fame quarterback stays healthy, there’s no reason to look elsewhere.

The Jets, Dolphins and Bills were all active in the offseason but you can see them preparing for the post-Brady era. We’re not expecting more than six wins from any of them, and it could be worse than that for the Bills.


for opponent

1 A Detroit 7.63

2 6 H Miami 6.61

3 4 A Cleveland 6.21


5 7 H Denver 7.13

6 7 H Indianipolis 6.43


8 7 A Chicago 6.92

9 7 A Miami 6.61

10 7 H Buffalo 6.41

11 Bye



14 7 A Buffalo 6.41

15 6 H Houston 8.91



AFC EAST DIVISION


GOOD• Only face 6 teams projected to finish above .500• Travel to Jacksonville with extra rest off Thurs game• Host NE off bye week (NE also off their bye week)• Play 3 straight games at home, finishing with Minnesota• Host Denver with Broncos off a Monday night game• Travel to Tennessee with Titans off Monday night game

against Houston and a look ahead the following week to Jacksonville

BAD• Last 3 games against teams proj. to finish above .500• Travel to Cleveland on a Thursday night• Host Miami following a Monday night game at Detroit• Travel to Miami with Dolphins off Thursday night game


NEW YORK JETS

BETTING SUGGESTIONBack the Patriots to win the AFC East for the 10th time in a row at $1.22.


DIVISION SUMMARYThe AFC North starts with the Steelers. Having won the division for the last two years, they are the team to beat. However, there are enough question marks around Pittsburgh to seriously consider the Ravens.

AFC NORTH DIVISION

SUPERBOWL ODDS: $12.5AFC NORTH ODDS: $1.58

GOOD• Face Tampa Bay with no Jameis Winston (suspension)• Host Carolina on a Thursday night game• Travel to Jacksonville off Thursday game (extra rest)• Face New Orleans with Saints off Monday night game

BAD• Face 9 teams projected to win more than 8 games• Face Ravens with Pittsburgh coming off a Monday game


PITTSBURGH STEELERSWK DAYS


1 A Cleveland 6.21


3 8 H Tampa Bay 6.17

4 6 H Baltimore 8.58

5 7 H Atlanta 8.91


7 Bye

8 14 H Cleveland 6.21

9 7 A Baltimore 8.58

10 4 H Carolina 8.12


12 7 A Denver 7.13

13 7 H LA Chargers 9.47

14 7 A Oakland 7.67


16 7 A New Orleans 9.09

17 7 H Cincinnati 6.57



for opponent

1 H Buffalo 6.41


3 10 H Denver 7.13

4 7 A Pittsburgh 9.91



7 7 H New Orleans 9.09

8 7 A Carolina 8.12

9 7 H Pittsburgh 9.91

10 Bye


12 7 H Oakland 7.67

13 7 A Atlanta 8.91

14 7 A Kansas City 8.00




AFC NORTH DIVISION

SUPERBOWL ODDS: $44AFC NORTH ODDS: $5

GOOD• Only face 7 teams with projected wins above .500• Face Denver with extra rest coming off Thurs game• Face Pittsburgh at home with Steelers off Monday game

BAD• Travel to Cincinnati for Thursday night game• Play 3 straight road games with Pittsburgh and

Tennessee at beginning and end of trip respectively• Travel to Chargers with LA off Thursday game (extra rest

for LA)• Face Saints off their bye week• Travel to Atlanta with Atl off Thursday game (extra rest

for Atl)



GOOD• Host Baltimore on a Thursday night• Travel to Carolina off Thurs game with extra rest• Host the Saints off their bye week

BAD• Play 9 teams projected to win more than 8 games,

including 6 of those 9 on the road• Travel to the Ravens with Balt off their bye week and host

Cleveland the following week with the Browns off their bye week

• Travel to Cleveland with Browns having extra days rest


BALTIMORE RAVENS

CINCINNATI BENGALSWK DAYS


1 H Washington 6.95

2 7 A LA Rams 9.16

3 7 H Chicago 6.92

4 7 H Seattle 7.60

5 7 A San Fransisco 8.45


7 4 H Denver 7.13

8 10 H San Fransisco 8.45

Bye


11 7 H Oakland 7.67



14 7 H Detroit 7.63

15 7 A Atlanta 8.91

16 7 H LA Rams 9.16

17 7 A Seattle 7.60


SUMMARYLe’veon Bell’s contract talk won’t go away and we’re confident Big Ben won’t be ageing like Tom Brady. His road performances last season are cause for concern and they face nine teams projected to win more than eight games. Their defensive deficiencies look set to continue too.

For those reasons, and some improvements from their divisional opponents, we’re going to bet against the Steelers.

Baltimore had nine wins last year and we have them in for 8.58 this season. They only face seven teams that are projected to top .500 and they host Pittsburgh off a Monday night game. That could be the difference. Plus, we’re not convinced Joe Flacco is finished, particularly with the receiving improvements.

We’re taking John Harbaugh’s men at the $5 and hope the Steelers season unravels.


for opponent

1 H Pittsburgh 9.91


3 4 H NY Jets 6.14

4 10 A Oakland 7.67



7 7 A Tampa Bay 6.17



10 7 H Atlanta 8.91

11 Bye


13 7 A Houston 8.91


15 6 A Denver 7.13



AFC NORTH DIVISION


GOOD• Host the Jets on a Thursday night• Travel to Cincinnati off their bye week• Travel to Oakland off a Thursday game (extra rest for

Clev)• Host Cincinnati with an extra days rest• Face Houston with Texans off a Monday night game

BAD• Face Pittsburgh with Steelers off their bye week

UGLY• Face 10 teams projected to win 8 or more games,

including 7 of their first 10 games


CLEVELAND BROWNS

BETTING SUGGESTIONBack the Ravens at $5 to win the AFC North.


DIVISION SUMMARYDefending divisional champions, Jacksonville, are the favourites this season. Followed closely by Houston. Tennessee, who haven’t won a division for nine years, and Indianapolis, are right in the betting too. However, we only want to back one team.

AFC SOUTH DIVISION

SUPERBOWL ODDS: $23AFC SOUTH ODDS: $2.76

GOOD• Host 3 straight home games early in the season,

including New England and Tennessee• Host Indy off bye week— also Indy’s bye week• Host Washington off Thursday game—extra rest• Travel to KC with Chiefs off Monday night game against

Denver

BAD• Give up home game to play Philadelphia in London• Travel to Tennessee on a Thursday night• Jets off a Thursday night game—extra rest for NY• Travel to Buffalo with Bills off their bye week• Host Pittsburgh with Steelers off Thursday night game• Play 4 games straight against teams projected to win 8 or

more games


JACKSONVILLE JAGUARSWK DAYS


1 A NY Giants 6.25


3 7 H Tennessee 7.77

4 7 H NY Jets 6.14


6 7 A Dallas 8.42

7 7 H Houston 8.91

8 7 A Philadelphia 9.51

9 Bye



12 7 A Buffalo 6.41



15 10 H Washington 6.95

16 7 A Miami 6.61

17 7 A Houston 8.91



for opponent

1 A Miami 6.61

2 7 H Houston 8.91


4 7 H Philadelphia 9.51

5 7 A Buffalo 6.41



8 Bye

9 15 A Dallas 8.42



12 8 A Houston 8.91

13 6 H NY Jets 6.14


15 10 A NY Giants 6.25



AFC SOUTH DIVISION


GOOD• Face Chargers in London rather than LA• Host Dallas off bye week but Cowboys are also off bye

week• Host Jacksonville on Thursday night• Travel to NY Giants off Thursday game—extra rest

BAD• Host NE off Monday night game• Travel to Jets off Monday night game• Face 9 teams projected to win more than 8 games,

including 7 of 8 games beginning week 2



GOOD• Host three straight games in November including Jack

and Tenn• Travel to Jets off Thursday game—extra rest• Face Jacksonville off bye week—Jacksonville also off bye

week

BAD• Travel to New England on a Thursday night• Travel to Oakland with Raiders off their bye week• Two stretches of three games in a row against teams

projected to win more than eight games


TENNESSEE TITANS

INDIANAPOLIS COLTSWK DAYS


1 H Cincinnati 6.57

2 7 A Washington 6.95


4 7 H Houston 8.91


6 10 A NY Jets 6.14

7 7 H Buffalo 6.41

8 7 A Oakland 7.67

9 Bye



12 7 H Miami 6.61


14 7 A Houston 8.91

15 7 H Dallas 8.42

16 7 H NY Giants 6.25



SUMMARYDespite the competitive betting odds, this division is a two-horse race.

The Colts are undermanned in multiple positions, and even with a full season from Andrew Luck, we can’t see them competing for a playoff spot.

The Titans are better, but their unproven coaching staff makes it hard to see them beating .500. Particularly with off season surgeries to Derrick Morgan, Rishard Matthews and Jack Conklin. They’d need a lot of luck, and plenty from Marcus Mariota, to win the division. $5 is unders.

Onto our two horses. Plenty of experts love the AFC South champs, Jacksonville. Except us. We see them regressing behind Blake Bortles. Their defence will make this a tough divisional fight, but our money is on the Texans.

A risk, for sure, but Houston are more dynamic than the Jags when fit. DeShaun Watson was electric in his six starts last year and they obviously get J.J. Watt back too. Plus their draw is soft. We like Houston to ride their returning players deep into the Playoffs.


for opponent

1 A New England 10.96




5 7 H Dallas 8.42

6 7 H Buffalo 6.41


8 4 H Miami 6.61

9 10 A Denver 7.13

10 Bye





15 6 A NY Jets 6.14



AFC SOUTH DIVISION

SUPERBOWL ODDS: $29AFC SOUTH ODDS: $3

GOOD• Face only five teams projected to finish above .500• Face Miami at home on Thursday night• Play three straight homes games late in season• Travel to Washington off bye week• Travel to Denver off Thursday game—extra rest• Face Philadelphia off Saturday game—extra rest

BAD• Start with New England on road and finish with

Philadelphia and Jacksonville• Face Cleveland off Monday night game vs Tennessee (one

less day to prepare)


HOUSTON TEXANS

BETTING SUGGESTIONBack Houston to win the AFC South at $3.


DIVISION SUMMARYAnother competitive division with no team bigger than $5. Kansas City are the defending champs, however, the Chargers are the firm favourite. Both teams have been backed in for the Super Bowl, and so have the Broncos at big odds.

AFC WEST DIVISION

SUPERBOWL ODDS: $36AFC WEST ODDS: $3.85

GOOD• Face Rams in Mexico City instead of LA• Travel to Oakland off their bye week• Host Chargers on a Thursday night• Travel to Seattle off a Thursday night game• Face Raiders last game of season with Oakland off

Monday night game

BAD• Host Jacksonville off a Monday night game at Denver• 5 of first 6 games against teams projected to finish better

than 8 wins• Face Arizona off Cardinals bye week• Face Denver with Broncos off Thursday night game—

extra rest for Denver• Travel to NE with Pats off Thursday night game—extra

rest for NE


KANSAS CITY CHIEFSWK DAYS


1 A LA Chargers 9.47


3 7 H San Francisco 8.45

4 8 A Denver 7.13




8 7 H Denver 7.13


10 7 H Arizona 6.41

11 8 A LA Rams 9.16

12 Bye

13 13 A Oakland 7.67



16 10 A Seattle 7.60

17 7 H Oakland 7.67



for opponent

1 H Kansas City 8.00

2 7 A Buffalo 6.41

3 7 A LA Rams 9.16


5 7 H Oakland 7.67



8 Bye

9 14 A Seattle 7.60

10 7 A Oakland 7.67

11 7 H Denver 7.13

12 7 H Arizona 6.41





17 7 A Denver 7.13

AFC WEST DIVISION


GOOD• Face only 6 teams projected to finish with 8 or more wins• Travel to Seattle off their bye week• Host Baltimore off a Thursday night game—extra rest• 7 straight games in the middle of the season against

teams projected to finish with less than 8 wins

BAD• 3 early east coast starts• 3 straight road games, including giving up home game

to play in London but they do have their bye during that stretch

• Travel to KC on a Thursday night• Travel to Oakland with Raiders off Thursday night game—

extra rest for Oakland


SUPERBOWL ODDS: $70AFC WEST ODDS: $5

GOOD• Host Indy off bye week• Host Chargers off Thursday game—extra rest

BAD• Give up home game to face Seattle in London• Travel to Denver off Monday night game against Rams• Travel to SF on Thursday night• Travel to KC off Monday night game to finish season• Host KC with Chiefs off their bye week• Host Cleveland with Browns off Thursday night game—

extra rest for Browns• 3 early east coast starts


LOS ANGELES CHARGERS

OAKLAND RAIDERSWK DAYS


1 H LA Rams 9.16

2 6 A Denver 7.13

3 7 A Miami 6.61



6 7 A Seattle 7.60

7 Bye


9 4 A San Francisco 8.45


11 7 A Arizona 6.41





16 8 H Denver 7.13



SUMMARY Coaching and quarterback changes throughout the division has us backing one team. The Los Angeles Chargers.

Philip Rivers’ team won nine of their last 12 and should carry that momentum into the new season. The veteran quarterback doesn’t show signs of ageing, throwing for over 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns in his last three seasons. Plus the Chargers have Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa causing chaos on D.

Injuries to Hunter Henry and Jason Verrett is a concern but the Chargers have too much talent, and an easy enough draw, to miss out on the playoffs again.


for opponent

1 H Seattle 7.60

2 7 H Oakland 7.67



5 6 A NY Jets 6.14

6 7 H LA Rams 9.16

7 4 A Arizona 6.41


9 7 H Houston 8.91

10 Bye






16 9 A Oakland 7.67


AFC WEST DIVISION


GOOD• Host KC off a Thursday night game—extra rest• Host Chargers off bye week• Host Oakland off Saturday game—extra rest• Host Oakland in week 2 with Raiders off Monday night

game vs Rams

BAD• Face 9 teams projected to win 8 or more games, including

4 straight in the middle of the season• Travel to the Jets off Monday night game vs KC• Travel to Arizona on a Thursday night• Host Chargers last game of the season off a Monday

night game• 3 early east coast starts• Travel to Baltimore with Ravens off Thursday night• Face Houston with Texans off Thursday night game


DENVER BRONCOS

BETTING SUGGESTIONBack the Chargers to win the AFC West at $2.50.


DIVISION SUMMARYNo team has repeated as divisional champs since 2003-04. However, the Eagles are coming off a Super Bowl victory and rightfully enter the season as odds on favourites to win the NFC East again.

NFC EAST DIVISION

SUPERBOWL ODDS: $10NFC EAST ODDS: $1.75

GOOD• Travel to Tampa Bay off Thursday game and no Winston

for Tampa Bay• Host Carolina off a Thursday game• Face Jacksonville in London instead of Jacksonville• Host Dallas off their bye week and Dallas off a Monday

night game

BAD• Travel to Dallas off a Monday night game and Dallas off a

Thursday night game• Face Minnesota with Vikings off Thursday night game -

extra rest for Minnesota• Face 9 teams projected to win 8 or more games including

7 of final 10 games• Face Houston with Texans off a Saturday game


PHILADELPHIA EAGLESWK DAYS


1 H Atlanta 8.91








9 Bye

10 14 H Dallas 8.42




14 6 A Dallas 8.42

15 7 A LA Rams 9.16

16 7 H Houston 9.16




for opponent

1 A Carolina 8.12


3 7 A Seattle 7.60

4 7 H Detroit 7.63

5 7 A Houston 8.91



8 Bye

9 Bye


11 6 A Atlanta 8.91




15 7 A Indianipolis 6.43



NFC EAST DIVISION


GOOD• Host 3 straight home games late in the season against

Washington, New Orleans & Philadelphia• Host Tennessee off their bye week• Host Washington on a Thursday night• Host Philadelphia off a Thursday night game and

Philadelphia off a Monday night game• Only face 7 teams projected to win more than 8 games• Travel to Seattle with Seahawks off Monday night game

BAD• Travel to Philadelphia off a Monday night game and

Philadelphia also off their bye week• Tennessee of their bye week



GOOD• Travel to New Orleans off bye week• Travel to Philadelphia off a Thursday game - extra rest for

Washington• Travel to Giants with New York off Monday night game

BAD• Host Carolina off a Monday night game• Travel to Dallas for a Thursday game• Host Giants off Monday night game• Face Atlanta with Falcons off their bye week• Travel to Houston with Texans off their bye week• Face Jacksonville with Jacksonville off a Thursday night

UGLY• Brutal schedule facing 10 teams projected to win more

than 8 games, including 5 of last 7 games


DALLAS COWBOYS

WASHINGTON REDSKINSWK DAYS


1 H Washington 6.95

2 7 A LA Rams 9.16

3 7 H Chicago 6.92

4 7 H Seattle 7.60



7 4 H Denver 7.13


Bye


11 7 H Oakland 7.67



14 7 H Detroit 7.63

15 7 A Atlanta 8.91

16 7 H LA Rams 9.16

17 7 A Seattle 7.60


SUMMARYCarson Wentz return from injury will go a long way to deciding the Eagles fate this season, but with a defence that is stacked across several key positions they will be hard to top in this division.

The Cowboys lead the best of the rest in the NFC East. They’ll need to keep Ezekiel Elliot healthy and will again lean on their strong offensive line play to win them games down the stretch. However, following the departure of Dez Bryant, they have a gaping hole at receiver.

The Redskins and Giants round out one of the more entertaining divisions in the NFL. It’s hard to see either of these two teams keeping in touch with the Eagles over a 16-game season and if either are going to find a spot in the playoffs, it’ll be via a wildcard berth.


for opponent

1 H Jacksonville 9.34

2 7 A Dallas 8.42

3 7 A Houston 8.91


5 7 A Carolina 8.12


7 11 A Atlanta 8.91


9 Bye




13 7 H Chicago 6.92




17 7 H Dallas 8.42

NFC EAST DIVISION


GOOD• Host Philadelphia on a Thursday night• Travel to Atlanta on a Monday night off a Thursday game

- extra rest• Travel to San Francisco off their bye week but San

Francisco off a Thursday night game• Face Washington off a Monday night game in December

BAD• Host Washington off a Monday night game• Host Tampa Bay off a Monday night game• Face Carolina off their bye week• Host Tennessee who is off a Thursday game - extra rest• Host Chicago with Bears off Thursday night game• Face 10 teams projected to win more than 8 games


NEW YORK GIANTS

BETTING SUGGESTIONBack the Eagles to win the division at $1.75.


DIVISION SUMMARYThere’s a good chance that this division may be the strongest in the NFL this season. The Packers and Vikings both have legitimate Super Bowl credentials and while the Lions and Bears may not be there yet, both sides figure to finish up somewhere around the .500 mark.

NFC NORTH DIVISION

SUPERBOWL ODDS: $14NFC NORTH ODDS: $2.24

GOOD• Only face 7 teams projected to win more than 8 games

and 0 in last 4 games.• Travel to Philadelphia off a Thursday game.• Travel to Chicago off their bye week.

BAD• Travel to the Rams on a Thursday game.• Face Rams and Philly in back to back road games.• Host Miami off a Monday night road game at Seattle• Host Green Bay with Packers off a Thursday game.• 4 of first 5 games are against teams projected to win

more than 8 games.


MINNESOTA VIKINGSWK DAYS


1 H San Francisco 8.45


3 7 H Buffalo 6.41

4 4 A LA Rams 9.16


6 7 H Arizona 6.41

7 7 A NY Jets 6.14


9 7 H Detroit 7.63

10 Bye

11 14 A Chicago 6.92



14 8 A Seattle 7.60

15 6 H Miami 6.61

16 7 A Detroit 7.63

17 7 H Chicago 6.92



for opponent

1 H NY Jets 6.14



4 7 A Dallas 8.42


6 Bye

7 14 A Miami 6.61

8 7 H Seattle 7.60


10 7 A Chicago 6.92


12 4 H Chicago 6.92

13 10 H LA Rams 9.16

14 7 A Arizona 6.41

15 7 A Buffalo 6.41



NFC NORTH DIVISION

SUPERBOWL ODDS: $80 NFC NORTH ODDS: $9

GOOD• Host 3 straight home games, including Carolina and the

Rams.• Travel to Miami off their bye week.• Host Chicago on Thanksgiving.• Host Rams off Thursday game but Rams off their bye

week.

BAD• Travel to San Francisco off Monday night game.• Host Seattle with Seahawks off their bye week.• Face Carolina with Panthers off a Thursday game.• Face 9 teams projected to win more than 8 games.



GOOD• Face only 6 teams projected to win more than 8 games.• Travel to the Rams off their bye week.• Travel to Minnesota off a Thursday game - extra rest.• Face NE with Pats off a Monday night game - extra rest

for GB

BAD• Travel to Rams and New England in back to back weeks.• Travel to Seale on a Thursday night.• Travel to Jets with New York off a Saturday game - extra

rest for NY.


DETROIT LIONS

GREEN BAY PACKERSWK DAYS


1 H Chicago 6.92



4 7 H Buffalo 6.41

5 7 A Detroit 7.63


7 Bye

8 13 A LA Rams 9.16

7 A New England 10.96

10 7 H Miami 6.61

11 4 A Seattle 7.60


13 7 H Arizona 6.41

14 7 H Atlanta 8.91

15 7 A Chicago 6.92

16 7 A NY Jets 6.14

17 7 H Detroit 7.63


SUMMARYThe market tells us it’s a two horse race between the Packers and Vikings here and its hard to see any other scenario playing out. Both teams strengthened over the off-season, adding some nice pieces to their existing strengths.

The week two clash between the pair at Lambeau Field will likely give us a better indication of what’s to come, but at this point its hard to look past the Vikings who are arguably the most complete team in the NFL with Kirk Cousins under centre. We’re expecting an improvement from the Bears under new head coach Matt Nagy and the Lions will undoubtably remain competitive again this season.

It’s hard to see less than one of these teams featuring in the pointy end of the season and therefore we expect the runner up in this division to claim a spot in the Playoffs via the Wildcard.


for opponent

1 A Green Bay 9.72

2 8 H Seattle 7.60

3 6 A Arizona 6.41


5 Bye

6 14 A Miami 6.61


8 7 H NY Jets 6.14

9 7 A Buffalo 6.41

10 7 H Detroit 7.63


12 4 A Detroit 7.63

13 10 A NY GIants 6.25

14 7 H LA Rams 9.16




NFC NORTH DIVISION


GOOD• Only face 7 teams projected to win more than 8 games

and just 1 team in first 5 games and 2 of rest 9 games.• Travel to Miami off their bye week• Travel to the Giants off a Thursday game - extra rest.• Face Tampa Bay with Bucs off Monday night game -

Winston potentially first game back• Travel to Buffalo with Bills off Monday night game against

New England

BAD• Last 4 games against teams projected to win more than

8 games.• Travel to Arizona off Monday night game.• Travel to Detroit on Thanksgiving.• Host Minnesota with Vikings off their bye week


CHICAGO BEARS

BETTING SUGGESTIONBack the Vikings to win the NFC North at $2.24.


DIVISION SUMMARYAnother very strong division and one that typically goes down to the wire. We’re tipping the Saints to make it to the NFC Championship game, so conveniently, we’re backing them to win here. Although the Falcons and Panthers remain as serious threats.

NFC SOUTH DIVISION

SUPERBOWL ODDS: $17NFC SOUTH ODDS: $2.54

GOOD• Travel to Baltimore off a bye week• Host Atlanta on a Thursday night - Thanksgiving night• Travel to Tampa Bay off a Thursday game - extra rest

BAD• Face 10 teams who are projected to win more than 8

games • Play 3 straight road games late in the season• Host Pittsburgh off a Monday night game at Carolina• Face Washington off Redskins bye week • Face teams projected to win more than 8 games in a 9 of

11 game stretch to finish the season• Face Cincinnati off Bengals bye week

PROJECTED WINSBased on projected lines they are calculated to win 9.09 games

NEW ORLEANS SAINTSWK DAYS


1 H Tampa Bay 6.17


3 7 A Atlanta 8.91



6 Bye



9 7 H LA Rams 9.16



12 4 H Atlanta 8.91

13 7 A Dallas 8.42


15 8 A Carolina 8.12





for opponent

1 H Dallas 8.42

2 7 A Atlanta 8.91


4 Bye







11 10 A Detroit 7.63

12 7 H Seattle 7.60




16 6 H Atlanta 8.91


NFC SOUTH DIVISION

SUPERBOWL ODDS: $50NFC SOUTH ODDS: $4.5

GOOD• Host Giants off bye week • Travel to Detroit off a Thursday game—extra rest• Face Washington with Redskins off a Monday night game

BAD• Face 8 teams who are projected to win more than 8

games, including their last three games of the season• Travel to Pittsburgh on a Thursday• Host Atlanta off a Monday night game• Host Seattle with Seahawks off a Thursday game - extra

rest for Seale• Travel to Philadelphia with Eagles off a Thursday game -

extra rest for Philadelphia• Host Cincinnati with Bengals off a Thursday game - extra

rest for Cincinnati


SUPERBOWL ODDS: $21NFC SOUTH ODDS: $3

GOOD• Host 3 home games in a row early in the season,

including hosng Carolina off a Thursday game - extra rest• Travel to Washington off bye week • Host Baltimore off Thursday game - extra rest• Travel to Carolina with Panthers off Monday night game

against New Orleans

BAD• Open at Philadelphia on the road• Travel to New Orleans on a Thursday night• Play 4 straight games late in the season versus teams

projected to win more than 8 games. 9 overall, including two stretches of 4 of 5 games against teams projected to win more than 8 games

• Host Tampa Bay with Buccaneers off bye week• Face Giants who are off a Thursday game - extra rest


CAROLINA PANTHERS

ATLANTA FALCONSWK DAYS


1 A Philadelphia 9.51







8 Bye



11 7 H Dallas 8.42




15 7 H Arizona 6.41




SUMMARYLet’s start by ruling Tampa Bay out from the outset. They aren’t in the same league as the other three teams in this division. From there it gets far more complicated, with all three teams having a legitimate claim at the division.

The Panthers have the strongest defence following the addition of defensive linemen Dontari Poe. However, we really don’t know which Cam Newton we will get this season and for that reason we have Carolina sitting third.

We wont have the same problem with Drew Brees, who is a picture of consistency and let’s not forget Matt Ryan won the MVP two season ago. Both teams are stacked on offense and are balanced enough to grind out wins when they have too. It’ll be interesting to see how this one plays out, but we have the Saints on top. The market tends to agree as we have seen some good money for New Orleans to win the division and Super Bowl over recent weeks.


for opponent

1 A New Orleans 9.09



4 6 A Chicago 6.92

5 Bye

6 14 A Atlanta 8.91



9 7 A Carolina 8.12







16 7 A Dallas 8.42

17 7 H Atlanta 8.91

NFC SOUTH DIVISION

SUPERBOWL ODDS: $110NFC SOUTH ODDS: $10

GOOD• Host 3 games late in the season against San Francisco,

Carolina and New Orleans • Travel to Atlanta off Bucs bye week• Travel to Giants with New York off Monday night game

BAD• Jamies Winston suspended first 3 games all against

teams projected to win more than 8 games• Travel to Chicago off a Monday night game - Winston’s

potential first game back• Face San Francisco with 49ers off their bye week• Host New Orleans with Saints off a Thursday game -

extra rest for New Orleans• Host Philadelphia with Eagles off a Thursday game -

extra rest for Philadelphia


TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS

BETTING SUGGESTIONBack the Saints to win the division at $2.54.


DIVISION SUMMARYIt appears as the NFC West will be the Rams division to lose this season. The Seahawks have committed to a rebuild, the Cardinals still have a question marks at QB and while we’re projecting the 49ers to improve this season, it’s hard to see them topping the Rams.

NFC WEST DIVISION

SUPERBOWL ODDS: $13NFC WEST ODDS: $1.75

GOOD• Host 3 games in a row early in the season • Host Minnesota on a Thursday• Travel to Seale off a Thursday game - extra rest for LA• Travel to Detroit off the Rams bye week but Detroit off a

Thursday game• Travel to San Francisco with 49ers off a Monday night

game

BAD• Lose a home game to play Kansas City in Mexico• Two separate 3 game snts consecuvely on the road

although a bye occurs for one of the stints• Face Packers off GB’s bye week• Play a stretch of 6 of 9 games against teams projected to

win more than 8 games


LOS ANGELES RAMSWK DAYS


1 A Oakland 7.67

2 6 H Arizona 6.41



5 10 A Seattle 7.60

6 7 A Denver 7.13




10 7 H Seattle 7.60


12 Bye

13 13 A Detroit 7.63

14 7 A Chicago 6.92


16 7 A Arizona 6.41




for opponent

1 A Denver 7.13

2 8 A Chicago 6.92

3 6 H Dallas 8.42

4 7 A Arizona 6.41

5 7 H LA Rams 9.16

6 7 A Oakland 7.67

7 Bye

8 14 A Detroit 7.63


10 7 A LA Rams 9.16







17 7 H Arizona 6.41

NFC WEST DIVISION


GOOD• Face Oakland in London instead of Oakland • Travel to Detroit off the Seahawks bye week• Host GB on a Thursday night • Travel to Carolina off a Thursday game - extra rest for

Seattle

BAD• Host Dallas off a Monday night game • Travel to San Francisco off a Monday night game against

Minnesota• Tough stretch against LA Chargers, LA Rams and GB in

November• Host Rams with Los Angeles off Thursday game - extra

rest for LA • Host KC with Chiefs off a Thursday game—extra rest for

KC


SUPERBOWL ODDS: $160NFC WEST ODDS: $16

GOOD• Host Denver on a Thursday• Host SF off a Thursday game—extra rest for Arizona• Travel to KC off the Cards bye week• Travel to Rams who are off a Monday night game• Host Chicago with Bears off Monday night game

BAD• Play 6 of 8 games late in the season against teams

projected to win 8 or more games• Face 9 teams projected to win more than 8 games


SEATTLE SEAHAWKS

ARIZONA CARDINALSWK DAYS


1 H Washington 6.95

2 7 A LA Rams 9.16

3 7 H Chicago 6.92

4 7 H Seattle 7.60



7 4 H Denver 7.13


Bye


11 7 H Oakland 7.67



14 7 H Detroit 7.63

15 7 A Atlanta 8.91

16 7 H LA Rams 9.16

17 7 A Seattle 7.60


SUMMARYIt’s hard to argue against the 49ers stepping up in a big way this season. The were 1-10 last season before Jimmy Garoppolo took over and finished the season 6-10. With a full year of him under centre its feasible that the 49ers can make the playoffs. However, the Rams look to be in a class of their own atop this division.

Over the off-season the Rams swapped Sammy Watkins for Brandon Cooks, bolstered their already stacked defence with household names like Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib and will return 10 of their 11 starters on offence. That’s a scary prospect for the rest of the NFC, let alone the NFC West.

The 49ers are the best chance to stop the Rams from going back to back, while the declining Seahawks and Cardinals stand next to no chance of competing with our pick for the NFC Championship.


for opponent

1 A Minnesota 9.87

2 7 H Detroit 7.63



5 7 H Arizona 6.41


7 6 H LA Rams 9.16

8 7 A Arizona 6.41

9 4 H Oakland 7.67


11 Bye


13 7 A Seattle 7.60

14 7 H Denver 7.13

15 7 H Seattle 7.60

16 7 H Chicago 6.92

17 7 A LA Rams 9.16

NFC WEST DIVISION


GOOD• Face only 6 teams projected to win 8 or more games,

including only 1 game in last 9 games of the season • Host 3 straight home games late in the season • Host Oakland on a Thursday night • Host Giants off a Thursday night game - extra rest for

49ers • Travel to Tampa Bay off the 49ers bye week • Host Seale with Seahawks off a Monday night game

against Minnesota • Host Detroit with Lions off a Monday night game

BAD• 5 of first 7 games against teams projected to win 8 or

more games • Host Rams off a Monday night game • Travel to Arizona with Cardinals off a Thursday game -

extra rest for Arizona • Face Giants with NY off their bye week but San Francisco

off a Thursday game

PROJECTED WINSBased on projected lines they are calculated to win 8.45 games so there is some value on the over.

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS

BETTING SUGGESTIONBack the Rams to win the division at $1.75.


AFCThe AFC discussion always starts with New England and this year isn’t any different. But, you don’t need us to tell you the Patriots have a strong chance to repeat as AFC champions.

Let’s find a couple of teams who have very good chances of getting to the AFC Championship game and move on to the Super Bowl in Atlanta.

We’re looking at both the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers.

Why the Texans? Houston will get back several players they lost early in the season last year in QB DeShaun Watson, DL J.J. Watt and LB Whitney Mercilus. Watson only started six games before injuring himself in practice. In the last five games he started, his team averaged 39 points a game. Watson averaged well over 8 yards per pass in those games as well.

The Texans, in addition to getting back Watt and Mercilus have added S Tyrann Mathieu from the Arizona Cardinals and CB Aaron Colvin from the Jacksonville Jaguars. Both are above average secondary players and will help to improve one of the weaknesses for the Texans last year. The Texans face only five teams projected to win more than eight games.

The Chargers are another team that could do some damage in 2018. They lost four games by three points or less last year and were our third rated team in the league. They have book ends in Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram III that can get after the quarterback, good pass coverage and a veteran quarterback who keeps his teams in the game.

Both the Texans and Chargers have the make up to compete with a New England team who figures to be there again this year.

However, there can only be one AFC Champion and we’re backing the Chargers.

CONFERENCE PREVIEWS

BETTING SUGGESTIONBack the Chargers to win the AFC Championship at $10.


NFCThe NFC is wide open, so let’s make it easier on ourselves by eliminating the Philadelphia Eagles. A Super Bowl champion hasn’t gone back to back since 2005.

The Rams look the team to beat, as they have added a tonne of talent to their defence in NT Ndamukong Suh, CB Marcus Peters, CB Aquib Talib. Plus WR Brandon Cooks. The Rams were also rated as our third best team from the line of scrimmage last year tying with the Chargers.

The best team from the line of scrimmage was the New Orleans Saints. The Saints improved their defense last year to an average defence, which is all they need with their great offence. They added a very good CB Patrick Robinson during the off season to improve a secondary that improved greatly last year.

It looks like it could be a LA Rams and New Orleans Saints NFC Championship come January, where we like the Rams defence to be the difference.

CONFERENCE PREVIEWS

BETTING SUGGESTIONBack the Los Angeles Rams to win the NFC at $7.4.

In the Battle of Los Angeles, we’re siding with the Rams.

Back the Los Angeles Rams to win Super Bowl LIII at $13.


MVPThe MVP traditionally goes to a quarterback. In fact, they have won this award five straight years and 17 of the last 24. So let’s just focus on QBs and we can easily eliminate about 25 of the 32 NFL quarterbacks. Since we have four very good quarterbacks projected to get to the Championship game of their respective leagues, let’s find a winner amongst them.

It’ll take some sexy numbers to win the MVP so we need to find a quarterback who can do just that.

For New Orleans to be good they need to run the ball, which will keep Drew Brees numbers a little more in check.

The Rams also like to run the ball and the Chargers will win more games with their defence, which may keep some of Philip Rivers stats in check as well.

DeShaun Watson averaged three touchdown passes a game in his six starts last year, which had him on a pace to throw 48 touchdowns last year. If he does that again this year by staying healthy he has an excellent chance to win the MVP at big odds.

MVP PREVIEW

BETTING SUGGESTIONBack DeShaun Watson for the 2018 NFL MVP.

the game within the game your expert preview of the … · 4 7 h miami 6.61 5 4 h indianapolis 6.43...

Documents