the german “energiewende” – climate change, renewables ... · the rationale… climate...
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The German “Energiewende” – Climate
Change, Renewables, Energy Efficiency
Franzjosef Schafhausen Deputy Director General “Energy Transition”
Federal Ministry of the Environment,
Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety, Berlin
Schloss Leopoldskron, Salzburg
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2
… in short
The overarching target is Climate Change
Decision to base energy system on Renewables and Efficiency
Phase out of nuclear until 2022
Very ambitious targets
Concrete and very comprehensive set of measures (166 P&M’s)
Transparent Monitoring Scheme
Constant adaption needed: a learning process
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Challenges
To move the transition forward successfully, we…
… enable the electricity system to cope with large amounts of intermitting
energy supply by photovoltaic and wind on shore
… increase flexibility of supply and demand
… ensure supply security during times of low RE through management
measures
… address the medium-term challenge of electricity market design (e.g.
closer-to-real-time trading to reduce forecasting error)
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4
A learning system
2. Energy efficiency:
reducing energy consumption
increasing energy security
1. Renewable energies:
continuous expansion
reducing support costs
enhancing market integration
3. Grid infrastructure:
Temporary loop flows
expansion and modernisation
integration of RE
4. Flexibilisation of
the whole system
flexible demand
flexible power plants
complete new concepts
and smart solutions
5. Keeping costs
accepatable
avoiding new subsidies
balanced approaches
fair effort sharing
Energiewende faces challenges that can not be solved alone
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What are we talking about?
Energy Structures in Germany
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Primary Energy Balance in Germany
Energy Sources 2011 in TJ %
Oil 4.549 33,9%
Hard Coal 1.685 12,6%
Lignite 1.568 11,7%
Natural Gas 2.760 20,6%
Nuclear Energy 1.182 8,8%
Hydro and Wind 236 1,8%
Other Renewables 1.213 9,0%
cross border net exchange -18 -0,1%
others 236 1,8%
total 14.012
Quelle: BMWi (2011) Energiedaten - Nationale und internationale Entwicklung, Tabelle 4
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Power Generation in Germany 2012
Energy Sources
Power generation in
TWh %
2012 against
2011 ranking
Hard Coal 118,0 19,1% + 0,5% 3
Lignite 158,7 25,7% + 2,5% 1
Natural Gas 69,8 11,3% - 2,5% 5
Nuclear 99,4 16,1% -6,3% 4
Oil 9,3 1,5% +0,2% 7
Renewables 136,5 22,1% +5,7% 2
Wind 45,7 7,4% +1,4%
Hydro 21,0 3,4% +0,1%
Photovoltaic 27,8 4,5% +2,6%
Biomass 35,8 5,8% +1,3%
garbage 4,9 0,8% +/- 0
others 25,9 4,2% -0,1% 6
total 617,6
Quelle: BMWi (2011) Energiedaten - Nationale und internationale Entwicklung Tabelle 22
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That means: The Energy Concept includes all sectors –
it is not only power related!
2/3 of German Primary Energy balance is heat and transport
1/3 of German Energy balance is electricity
8 – 10 % of the German Energy Balance is nuclear power
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Three main elements
Ambitious targets and interim targets
Catalogue of policies and measures covering all types of
instruments
Annual, transparent Monitoring
10
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The Energiewende: Targets
Climate Renewables Efficiency
Green
house
gases
(vs. 1990)
power Primary
energy
Primary
energy
power Energy
productivity
transport buildings
2020
- 40 % 35% 18% - 20% -10%
increase
to
2,1%/a
-10 %
- 40 %
Double
1 ---2 %
Refurbis-
ment p.a. 2030 - 55 % 50% 30%
2040 - 70 % 65% 45%
2050 - 80-95% 80% 60% - 50% -25%
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Policies & Measures
166 Measures
Command & control / requirement
Inter alia „Building codes“
Economic incentives like emissions
trading, soft loans, subsidies
Planning, R&D, information,
education etc.
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Packages of Policies an Measures
Building sector: Building codes + economic incentives + soft
measures + R&D
Industry: emissions trading + economic incentives + soft
measures (inter alia: EMS) + R&D
Small Consumers: economic incentives + soft measures (inter
alia: EMS)
Energy Supply: emissions trading + CHP Act + EEG + economic
incentives + R&D
Transport: CO2 limits (g/km) – electric mobility + alternative fuels +
modal split
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Management Structures of the „Energiewende“
Energy Summit Bundeskanzlerin
Ministerpräsidenten der Länder Bundesminister
Energiewende
Monitoring „Energie der Zukunft“ (BMWi & BMU)
independent Commission of experts working group Monitoring (BMWi & BMU) Secretariat (BNetzA)
Platform „Future grids“
(BMWi) Platform
„Renewables“ (BMU)
Forum on power plants (BMWi)
High level Steeringgroup Energiewende (BMWi & BMU)
Staatssekretäre Bundesministerien
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The rationale…
Climate friendly energy future
Driving innovation: achieving „system competence“
Renewable sources of energy and energy efficiency are the future lead
markets
Acting now: Avoids lock-in effects (!), promoting future technologies
and drives economic growth
The future competetiveness will be decided by efficiency
• The cheapest unit of electricity is the one avoided
• in 2050 we want to use ½ of energy for one unit of our GDP
Reducing dependence on energy imports: already in 2011, Germany
saved 25 bn €/pa of fossil fuel imports
Long term: cost efficient, low carbon energy system
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Phase-out data and remaining nuclear capacities
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2011: Renewable Sources of Energy surpassed nuclear and
became second largest energy source for electricity
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BMU - E I 1 Erneuerbare Energien in Deutschland
2012
18
Entwicklung der Strombereitstellung und installierten
Leistung von Windenergieanlagen in Deutschland
48.8
83
46.0
00
71
2.9
66
2.0
32
1.5
00
909
600
275
100
37.7
93
38.6
39
40.5
74
39.7
13
30.7
10
27.2
29
25.5
09
18.7
13
15.7
86
10.5
09
9.5
13
5.5
28
4.4
89
0
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
50.000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
[GW
h]
0
4.000
8.000
12.000
16.000
20.000
24.000
28.000
32.000
[MW
]
Stromerzeugung [GWh]
installierte Leistung [MW]
EEG:
April 2000
EEG:
August 2004
EEG:
Januar 2009
Novelle BauGB:
November 1997
StromEinspG:
Januar 1991 - März 2000
2012: 31.315 MW
Quellen: C. Ender, Internetauftritt Deutsches Windenergie-Institut (DEWI): "Windenergienutzung in Deutschland - Stand: 31.12.2012";
StromEinspG: Stromeinspeisungsgesetz; EEG: Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz; BauGB: Baugesetzbuch; 1 MW = 1 Mio. Watt; 1 GWh = 1 Mio. kWh;
BMU - E I 1 nach Arbeitsgruppe Erneuerbare Energien-Statistik (AGEE-Stat); Hintergrundbild: BMU / Christoph Edelhoff; Stand: Februar 2013; Angaben vorläufig
EEG:
Januar 2012
Installed wind capacity in 2012: 32 GW
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BMU - E I 1 Erneuerbare Energien in Deutschland
2012
19
Entwicklung der Strombereitstellung und installierten
Leistung von Photovoltaikanlagen in Deutschland
28.0
00
19.3
40
11.7
29
6.5
83
4.4
20
313
556
1.2
82
2.2
20
3.0
75
1 2 3 6 8 11
16
26
32
42
64
76 162
0
4.000
8.000
12.000
16.000
20.000
24.000
28.000
32.000
36.000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
[MW
p ]
0
4.000
8.000
12.000
16.000
20.000
24.000
28.000
32.000
36.000
[GW
h]
Energiebereitstellung [GWh]
installierte Leistung [MWp]
Quelle: BMU - E I 1 nach Arbeitsgruppe Erneuerbare Energien-Statistik (AGEE-Stat); 1 GWh = 1 Mio. kWh; 1 MW = 1 Mio. Watt;
Hintergrundbild: BMU / Bernd Müller; Stand: Februar 2013; Angaben vorläufig
2012: 32.643 MWp
Installed PV capacity in 2012: 32 GW
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Imports / Exports 2013
Germany remains net exporter – 23 TWh in 2012
-150.000,00
-100.000,00
-50.000,00
0,00
50.000,00
100.000,00
150.000,00
200.000,00
250.000,001
.1
19.1
6.2
24.2
14.3
1.4
19.4
7.5
25.5
12.6
30.6
18.7
5.8
MW
h
Tag
Export- u. Importsalden Strom ab 01.01.2013
Exporte
Impo
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Higher amplitudes, particularly in times of low demand and strong
wind
Average spot market price has remained stable but low;
higher amplitudes mainly in time of surplus of wind
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Power prices for German Industries
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Wholesale power market price will further decline
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24 Exemplarische Darstellung Merit Order und Vollkosten 2012 für BMU
Vollkostenkurven 2011
weitere Annahmen:
• Zinssatz für Annuität 8,5%
• Brennstoff und CO2-Preise basieren auf Mittelwerten der Spotpreise für 2011
- CO2 - EUA
- Gas - NCG
- Steinkohle - McCloskey Marker NWE
- Braunkohle - interne Abschätzung
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Power Market Design
At the moment there are lots of uncertainties into the system (world
energy prices, technologies, grid expansion, over capacity, load
management, emissions trading etc.)
Fundamentally the electricity market is funtioning – problem:
marginal cost pricing? – the merit order effect!
Power price at the exchanges are low and does not provide
adequate price signals for new capacities – even existing power
plants are faced with economic problems – result of the „merit order
effect“ of rrenewable power and the inflexibility of the conventional
power generation
„energy only market“ has to be modified – but at the moment there
is no need for new institutions like capacity markets – we do not
need a revolution – what is needed is an evolution of the existing
structures
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Paradoxon of the Merit order effect
part of the support costs come from the lowered wholesale
power market price
RES-E lower the wholesale power market price but thereby
increases overall support costs (=support payments minus
market price for RES-E)
reduction of the wholesale power price will be granted only
gradually towards final consumers
but since 2009 electricity prices for industry has come down by
2 ct/kWh!
industry really starts to profit
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Price Trends
28
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Supply and demand
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EEG costs in 2012: 5,277 ct/kWh
German RE Policies - Electricity
Cost components for one kilowatt-hour of electricity for
household consumers
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009 2010 2011
[ce
nt/
kW
h]
Production, distribution, transport KWKG
EEG Concession levy
Electricity tax Sales tax
Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Institut für neue Energien Teltow (IfnE) and Bundesverband der Energie- und Wasserwirtschaft e.V. (BDEW);
Image: Deutsche Bundesbank; as at: July 2012; all figures provisional
13.9
16.1
18.0
23.723.2
21.7
19.4
25.2
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Germany has paid a lot for RES technology progress
•Overall support costs in 2012: 17 bn €/a
•costs must be kept under control
44.0 51.5 67.0 71.1 75.1 80.7 91.2 38.5 28.4 25.0 18.1 10.4
3.5
7.9 6.8
4.8 3.7 2.8 2.3 1.6 1.3 1.0
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
[Mill. E
UR
]
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
[TW
h/a
]
Feed-in under StromEinspG [TWh/a]
Feed-in under EEG [TWh/a]
Payment of fees [Mill. EUR]
StromEinspG: Act on the Sale of Electricity to the Grid; BauGB: Construction Code; EEG: Renewable Energy Sources Act; 1 TWh = 1 Bill. kWh;
Source: BMU-KI III 1 according to Working Group on Renewable Energy-Statistics (AGEE-Stat); image: BMU / Bernd Müller; as at: July 2012; all figures provisional
StromEinspG:
January 1991 - March 2000
Amendment to BauGB:
November 1997
EEG:
April 2000
EEG:
January 2009
EEG:
August 2004
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Investments paid off: PV costs came down more than 50% since 2006
Dünnschicht Source PVexchange
Since of 1 April of 2013 Germany pays only between 0,11 and 0,16 €/kWh for PV
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Consequence from cost perspective
In the long run: there is no alternative to investing in RES and
efficiency, the matter is only how much one wants to rely on it
But costs are nevertheless crucial for public acceptance and
adabtability of the system and ist actors
cost control
33
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Market integration of Renewable Power
In summer 2011 Germany started a transition process – numerous
things and structures are changing
The EEG structure (20 year guaranteed feed-in-tariffs, principle of
priority feed in) has been very successful in the initial phase
By the end of 2012 we had 23 % of renewable power – now the
integration of renewable power into the energy system and the
markets is the issue – renewable power generation has to become
more cost efficient
Consensus on the need to amend the EEG – but the is the political
will to keep basic structures
Some elements like the „market premium“ could be used
But it is not only a challenge for the renewables – the conventional
power generation has to change too – more flexibility and higher
efficiency
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Market integration of Renewable Power
In addition a lot of so called „flexibility options“ on the supply
side as well as on the demand side have to be used
The „Winterreserve“ is an interim solution to build a bridge to
collect more information and experiences to be able to develop
the existing structures
In order to safeguard the power supply security during the
transition process a „stratecic reserve“ – alongside the „normal
power market“ should be developed and implemented
35
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Enhancing Flexibility
Gri
ds
S
tora
ge
D
em
an
d s
ide
G
en
era
tio
n
Dem
an
d S
ide
Grid
expansion
Flexible thermal
power plants;
feed-in
management
Demand side/
Load
management
Power to heat
Pump storage
Power to Gas
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Grid expansion
Grid development plan
2012 NEP 2012, Stand:August 2012,
www.netzentwicklungsplan.de
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Decoupling
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EUA-prices
0 €
5 €
10 €
15 €
20 €
25 €
30 €
35 €
Spot (EEX) Dec12 (EEX) Dec13 (EEX)
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The integration of Germanys
Energiewende into the EU
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Implications of the Energiewende for our neighbours
The Energiewende…
…is not a “closed shop”
… calls for intensified cooperation and coordination
Renewables generation in Germany is being balanced in the
European grid
Electricity flows lead to challenges for grid stability (in particular
“loop flows”)
Grid extension most pressing issue in the EU context
Integration of renewable is not a “one way road”
On the other side, RES generation in Germany
• contributes to energy security across Europe by diversified, indigenous energy sources
• helps reducing wholesale power market prices across EU
• supports innovation and reduces technology costs for all
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Which way to follow in the EU?
Energy mix remains national responsibility; MS will follow
different approaches
But we need coordination and convergence of energy policies –
otherwise uncoordinated impacts
We need to agree on „no-regrets“
aim for synergies where „no-regrets“ exists
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Expansion of Electricity Grids
Grid extension in Germany:
• reduce loop flows for neighbors
• new North-South-lines in Germany
Cross-border challenges:
• developing an efficient and modern grid
• reducing negative cross-border effects
Common interest in a modern grid infrastructure
Strengthening EU support for cross-boarder lines: CEF
Enormous benefits from bilateral and regional cooperation on
expanding electricity grids
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Jobs and innovation
Development of gross employment in
the renewable energies sector
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
2004 2008 2009 2010 2011
Gross employment
Hydro Wind Biomass Solar energy Geothermal Publicly funded research/administration
160,500
381,600
322,100
339,500
367,400
The transformation of our
energy system …
■… creates new jobs (380.000 so
far)
■ … not only in the direct RES
production but in the overall system
■… is a key driver for innovation
and complete new concepts
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Conclusions
The German energy transformation is a concrete programme
and it is happening (continuous monitoring)
Renewable energies have experienced a strong growth
The reasons: ambitious targets, efficient policies and
instruments, long-term planning security
Benefits of renewable energies: climate protection, job
creation, economic growth, avoided energy imports
Crucial next steps:
cost efficiency, particularly regarding solar PV
market and grid integration of renewable energies
expand grid and storage capacities
sustainable and efficient use of bioenergy
cooperation among EU Member States and globally
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Thank you for your attention!
More Information:
www.bmu.de/english
www.erneuerbare-energien.de/english