the global actors and their relations part 2 copyright 2013 cengage learning

THE GLOBAL ACTORS AND THEIR

RELATIONS

PART 2

Copyright 2013 Cengage Learning

“Everybody has accepted by now that change is unavoidable. But that still implies that change is like death and taxes—it should be postponed as long as possible and no change would be vastly preferable. But in a period of upheaval, such as the one we are living in, change is the norm.”

Peter Drucker, management professor


Marching for Change


Chapter 4: Chapter 4: Rivalries and Rivalries and

Relations Among Relations Among the Great Powersthe Great Powers


“Great powers fear each other. They regard each other with suspicion, and they worry that war may be in the offing. They anticipate danger. There is little room for trust….”

John Mearsheimer, realist political scientist


Choice and Consequence



Long-cycle theory: Rise and fall of the leading global power

Hegemon: A single powerful state that exercises predominant influence over global actors

Hegemonic stability theory: Global dominance of a hegemon is necessary to provide the order required for international commerce and military security

Enduring rivalries among great powers

7

The Quest for World Leadership

The Evolution of Great Power Rivalry for World Leadership, 1495‒2025


Might Makes Right


The First World War

Causes• Global level: Structuralism

• State level: Nationalism

• Individual level: Rational Choice

Consequences



The Road to World War I

By the beginning of the 20th century, there was intense competition among European powers.

Triple Alliance• Germany, Austria, Hungary, and Italy

Triple entente• Britain, France, Russia

Serbian nationalists’ assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in July, 1914.

11


World War I: A Guide to the Major Players Alliance Powers:

Germany, Austria-Hungary

Ottoman Empire, Italy (until 1915)

Entente Powers:Great Britain, France, Russia,

United States, Italy (after 1915)

12


World War I Consequences Millions of deaths Three multi-ethnic empires collapsed—

Austrian-Hungarian, Russian, and Ottoman Creation of many new states in Europe Independence of Republic of Ireland Bolshevik overthrow in Russia Versailles Treaty and punishment of

Germany Rise of communism Strong anti-war sentiment in U.S. and

western Europe13

The Consequences of World War I

Territorial Changes in Europe Following World War I


The Second World War: A Guide to the Major Players

Axis Powers: Germany, Italy, Japan

Allied Powers:France, Great Britain,

Soviet Union, United States


The Second World War

CausesRoad to WarUsing Three Analytic Levels



The Causes of World War II

Domestic currents in Germany:• Treaty of Versailles provisions

inflame Germany

• Fascism and Nazi grip on Germany

• German irredentism International currents:• Global economic collapse

18

Proximate Causes on the Road to War

The political rise of Adolf Hitler and his political party, the Nazis

Inaction by France, Britain, Soviet Union appeasement

Japanese colonialismUS isolationism



World War II Redraws theMap of Europe

20

World War II Redraws theMap of Europe

Underlying Causes of WW II at Three Analytic Levels

Global level: Structuralism• Multipolarity—the distribution of global

power to three or more major actors

• Political Economy—the intersection of politics and economics

State level: Nationalism• Collective psychological forces

• Irredentism

• Fascism

• Ideology


Underlying Causes at Three Analytic Levels (continued)

State level: Nationalism• Collective psychological forces

• Irredentism—reclamation of lost territory

• Fascism—far-right ideology that promotes extreme nationalism

• Ideology—set of core philosophical beliefs

Individual level: Rational Choice


The Rise of Hitler and German Nationalism



The Consequences of World War II

Border changes in Europe System change: end to great-

power rivalries in Europe Iron curtain in eastern Europe Beginning of decolonization United Nations

25


The Consequences of World War II (continued) Yalta Conference: the 1945 summit

meeting of the Allied victors Bipolarity: condition in which power

is concentrated in two players, each serving as a “pole”

U.S.-Soviet rivalry the Cold War

26

Allies or New Rivals?


The Cold War

World War II changed the global system to one dominated by two superpowers.



The Causes and Evolutionary Course of the Cold War

Global Level: Realism• Power transition propels both states to top

of global power hierarchy

• Struggle for spheres of influence

State Level: Ideological incompatibility• Domino theory

Individual Level: Misperception• Mirror images—viewing an opponent as

one’s opposite29


Key Events in the Evolution of the

U.S.–Soviet Relationship During the Cold War 1949‒1991

30


Confrontation, 1947‒1962 Kennan’s “long telegram” Containment: a strategy to prevent

Soviet expansion Truman doctrine: declaration by

President Truman that US foreign policy supports people resisting subjugation by communists

Khrushchev pursued a policy of peaceful coexistence

Cuban missile crisis, 196231


From Coexistence to Détente, 1963‒1978

MAD: Mutual assured destruction Kennedy and tension reductions Détente: Relaxation of tensions

• Policy of Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger

• Linkage—cooperation to rewards

• SALT talks

• Cultural exchanges, trade agreements

32

Easing Tensions: US-Soviet Détente



From Renewed Confrontation to Rapprochement, 1979‒1991

Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, 1979 Carter Doctrine Reagan Doctrine Rapprochement –reconciliation, a

diplomatic policy to reestablish cordiality

34


From Renewed Confrontation to Rapprochement, 1979‒1991 (continued) Gorbachev

Foreign policies: withdrawal from eastern Europe, Afghanistan, Cuba; INF, START, and CFE treaties

Domestic policies:• Glasnost—openness and political freedom

• Perestroika—economic restructuring

35

Contending Interpretations of the Causes of the Cold War’s End



The Consequences of the Cold War

End of communism “End of history” Emergence of U.S. hegemony More elusive security threats

• Rogue states

• Terrorism

37

The Post-Cold War

Unipolarity—refers to the concentration of power in a single preponderant state.



America’s Unipolar Moment

Caused by end of Cold War Soft power

• Intangible, versus hard power

Unilateralism—independence• Isolationism

• Hegemonic leadership

• Selective engagement

Imperial overstretch?

39

The Rise of the Rest? From Unipolarity to Multipolarity United States currently the

dominant military and political power

China, Japan, India, the European Union and possibly Russia are potential challengers for hegemon role


The Rise of the Rest? From Unipolarity to Multipolarity Multipolar distributions of power

can lead to war Power transitions Uni-multipolar—a global system

with a dominant power, but key issues require multilateral cooperation


A Resurgent Russia?


Looking Ahead: The Future of Great Power Relations

Many observers sense shifts in global distribution of power are underfoot.US still valuable as leader, politically and militarilyMore actors join the US at the top economically.


Global Prosperity


Transitions in Wealth and Economic Power?


A New Global Hegemon?


The US-China relationship could pursue polarization and rivalry or interdependence and cooperation

Concert—a cooperative agreement among great powers on managing the system

Multilateralism—a cooperative approach to manage shared problems

A New Global Hegemon?



Questions for Discussion

1. In your opinion, can or should the U.S. attempt global leadership? What are your arguments?

2. Do relations with and among Middle Eastern nations dominate world politics today?

3. Who is likely to be the next hegemon? How will this affect the Middle East?

48


Questions for Critical Thinking

1. In what ways did the causes of World War I differ from those of World War II?

2. In what ways is the individual level of analysis useful in explaining the outbreaks of the two world wars?

3. How does the global level of analysis explain the twentieth-century changes in the structure of the international system?

49


Questions for Critical Thinking (continued)

4. What three individuals had the greatest impact on the international system in the twentieth century? Why?

5. What factors help explain the end of the Cold War?

6. What are potential major changes in the structure of the international system in the twenty-first century?

50


Web Links The World War I Document Archive The Avalon Project—World War II Cold War Race for the Superbomb

51

http://wwi.lib.byu.edu/index.php/Main_Page

http://avalon.law.yale.edu/subject_menus/wwii.asp

http://www.wilsoncenter.org/coldwarfiles/index.cfm?thisunit=0&fuseaction=home.welcome

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/amex/bomb/sfeature/index.html

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