the global food challenge
TRANSCRIPT
TheGlobalFoodChallengeRosamondNaylor
Director,ProgramonFoodSecurityandtheEnvironment;Professor,DepartmentofEnvironmentalEarthSystemScience;WilliamWrigleySeniorFellow,FreemanSpogliInsAtutefor
InternaAonalStudiesandWoodsInsAtutefortheEnvironment
Challengesforthe21stCentury
••HowtofeedHowtofeedamorepopulousamorepopulousandandricherworldinthedecadesricherworldinthedecadestocome?tocome?
‐Withglobalclimatechange?‐Withglobalclimatechange?‐Withoutdestroyingthe‐Withoutdestroyingthe
environmentintheprocess?environmentintheprocess?
••HowtoprovidefoodaccesstoHowtoprovidefoodaccesstothe~1billionpeoplewhoremainthe~1billionpeoplewhoremainchronicallyhungry?chronicallyhungry?
••HowHowtoaddressfoodinsecuritytoaddressfoodinsecuritywithinwithintradiAonalnaAonaltradiAonalnaAonalsecuritycircles?securitycircles?
FoodSecurityFoodSecurity
WhenallpeopleatallWhenallpeopleatallAmeshavephysicalandAmeshavephysicalandeconomicaccesstotheeconomicaccesstothefoodnecessarytoleadafoodnecessarytoleadahealthyandproducAvehealthyandproducAvelife.life.
‐FAO‐FAO
WorldBankesAmates:WorldBankesAmates:
Pop<$1/day:15%Pop<$1/day:15%
Pop<$2/day:50%Pop<$2/day:50%
Millions of people
2004-6 2009* Asia and the Pacific 566 642 Sub-Saharan Africa 212 265 Latin America and the Caribbean 45 53 Near East and North Africa 34 42 Developed countries 15 15
World Total 872 1,017
* Estimated by FAO. SOURCE: FAO State of Food Insecurity in the World (2009)
Undernourishment in 2004-6 and 2009, by region
Crop‐BasedBiofuelsBoom
40%ofUScorncropnowusedforethanol40%ofUScorncropnowusedforethanol
AgriculturalIntensificaCon
Plants
Soil
Gas EmissionsMicrobes
Leaching
NO3-
NH3, NO, N2O, N2
N Fertilizer
North China Plains: +227 kg/N/ha/year
West Kenya: -52 kg/N/ha/year
(Src: Vitousek et al, Science, 2009)
SocialCostsofSocialCostsofExcessNutrientsExcessNutrients
Joey’sCornandCaYleOperaAon
• Cornyields:240bu/acre
– 4xageneraAonago
• CaYleweightgain4lb/dayw/hormoneinplants
– ~2xageneraAonago
• 175daygrowout– vs.280ageneraAonago
IntensificaAonofAnimalProducAon
Linksto:
•Incomegrowth
•Technology
•Globaltrade
•Fisheriesdecline
AnInconvenientTrough*
•GloballivestockproducAonaccountsfor~18%oftotalgreenhousegasemissions(CO2,N20,CH4)‐‐Landusechange,ferAlizerforfeeds,waste/gas•Stressonlandandwaterresources;nutrienteffluents
*(Source: Steinfeld et al (2007) for research; Atlantic for phrase)
• HowmuchlandwouldittaketotransiAonfromgrain‐tograss‐fedbeefintheUS?• AssumingcurrentconsumpAonofbeefandcurrentproducAvityof
pasture(nodairy)
• 61%morelandrequiredforcaYleundergrass‐fedregime• (~100millionmoreacres)
• Ortomaintainsamerangeland:38%‐66%dropinbeefconsumpAon
Grass‐fedBeef:Grass‐fedBeef:TheLandTradeoffTheLandTradeoff
FeedCrops:TheWaterTradeoffFeedCrops:TheWaterTradeoff
Athirdoftheworld’spopulaAonwillsufferfromwaterscarcityin2025
Physicalscarcity:Notenoughwater.
EconomicScarcity:Noinfrastructuretomakewateravailabletofarmers.
Source: IWMI
WaterscarcityforfoodproducCon?WaterscarcityforfoodproducCon?
Aquaculture:Aquaculture:IntensiveFishProducConIntensiveFishProducCon
FeedlotsoftheSea?
60 tidal cycles6 tidal cycles
WhichFishisBesttoBuy?
LandExpansionforAgricultureLandExpansionforAgriculture
•Brazilsoy:81%•AsiaoilpalmAsia: 92%
%achievedthroughareaexpansion%achievedthroughareaexpansion(1995‐2009)(1995‐2009)
• 42 million ha in 2008-09• Land speculation when financial markets have low yields• 75% land sales in Sub Saharan Africa• Countries with weak land institutions, “under-utilized”
e.g., Sudan, Zambia, Mozambique, Madagascar
WestPapua,IndonesiaWestPapua,Indonesia““FeedtheWorldProjectFeedtheWorldProject””
Threattoecosystemservices
GlobalClimateChangeGlobalClimateChange
HeatWaveinRussiaHeatWaveinRussia’’sPrimeWheatRegion,sPrimeWheatRegion,20102010
Src: Battisti, UW 2010
IPCC Predictions: ~ 20 GCMs
Battisti and Naylor, Science, Jan 9 2009A1B
(IPCC Predictions, 4th assessment, 23 models, A1B scenario)
Agriculture‐Energy‐ClimateLinksAgriculture‐Energy‐ClimateLinks
EnergyandEnergyandclimateimplicaAonsofclimateimplicaAonsofhigh‐yielding,intensiveagriculture?high‐yielding,intensiveagriculture?
HypoxiafromHypoxiafromferAlizedcorn(ethanol)orfromoilspill?ferAlizedcorn(ethanol)orfromoilspill?
LetLet’’sputourinnovaCvemindstosputourinnovaCvemindstoworkwork
• Technology
• Management
• Policy
• ConsumpAon
Solar‐PoweredDripIrrigaConSolar‐PoweredDripIrrigaCon
Solar pumping:•Direct-coupled (no batteries),longer lifetime•Wide range of specs•Immune to oil prices•Simple and safe
Drip Irrigation:•Efficient water use; uniformity•Labor-saving•New market products
300N 0N
ManuelLopezdeLara‐VillaJuarez,YaquiValley,Mexico(photo:IvanOrAz‐Monasterio,CIMMYT)
NOvershootinYaquiValley
• U.S.FarmBill(producAonvs.conservaAonincenAves)• U.S.biofuelspolicy• U.S.aquaculturepolicy(CA,Federal)• Indonesia’sfoodandagriculturalpolicies• China’sruraldevelopmentpolicies
ExamplesofPolicyInvolvementExamplesofPolicyInvolvement
Thegoodnewsisthatwe’redrivingaMercedes…..