the global livestock agenda: opportunities and challenges
DESCRIPTION
Presented by Jimmy Smith at the 15th AAAP Animal Science Congress, Bangkok,Thailand, 26-30 November 2012TRANSCRIPT
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The global livestock agenda Opportunities and challenges
Jimmy Smith
15th AAAP Animal Science Congress, Bangkok,Thailand
26-30 November 2012
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The global livestock sector • Magnitude • Diversity • Dynamic • Important for global development challenges
Trends in the global livestock sector • Consumption • Food production • Trade
Livestock and the environment Livestock and livelihoods Livestock and health/nutrition
Overview
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The global livestock sector
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The global livestock sector
17 billion domestic animals
Asset value $1.4 trillion
Employs 1.3 billion people
Uses one third of the earth’s ice free surface
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Four out of the five highest value global commodities are livestock
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Livestock contribution to AgGDP
6
4.0%
5.6%
4.3% 2.9%
3.8%
2.8%
2.4%
2.8%
2.4%
Livestock
GDP
(Figures in bars are annual growth rates)
FAO, 2012
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Diversity in the livestock sector
From…..
Few animals
Multiple functions
Sales – at times of need
Risk mitigation 7
To…..
00,000s of animals
Rapid, regular turn over
Only for income
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Growth scenarios for livestock systems
‘Strong growth’ – Where good market access and
increasing productivity provide opportunities for continued smallholder participation.
‘Fragile growth’ – Where remoteness, marginal land
resources or agro-climatic vulnerability restrict intensification.
‘High growth with externalities’ – Fast changing livestock systems
potentially damaging the environment and human health
Different research and development challenges for poverty, food security, health and nutrition, environment
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Livestock and global development challenges
Feeding the World – Livestock provide 58 million tonnes of protein annually and 17% of the
global kilocalories.
Removing poverty – Almost 1 billion people rely on livestock for livelihoods
Managing the environment – Livestock contribute 14 -18% anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions;
use 30% of the freshwater used for agriculture and 30% of the ice free land
– Transition of livestock systems – huge opportunity to impact on future environment
Improving human health – Zoonoses and contaminated animal source foods
– Malnutrition and obesity
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Animal source foods and global diets
10
FAO, 2012
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Livestock growth and GDP
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Consumption and production
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% growth in demand for livestock products 2000 - 2030
13
FAO, 2012
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Consumption - drivers Population: Rising to 9-10 billion
Urbanization
– Since 2008 more people in urban than rural areas
– Two thirds urban anticipated by 2050
Incomes
Supermarkets
Trade
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Supermarkets or informal sector?
‘Supermarket revolution’ took off in 1990s
Increases in market share vary around the world
General features • Impacts the rich first
• Vertical integration of food markets
• Threat to smallholder participation
Effects not same for all products • First in processed foods
(flour, oil, condiments)
• Last in fresh foods (meat, dairy, fruits and veg)
Informal milk market 80% in India
ILRI/Mann
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FAO: SOFA 2009
Growing trade in livestock commodities–with impacts also at local level
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Food production: From where?
Herrero et al. 2009
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Food production: By whom?
Today: 50 – 75% of livestock production in Africa and Asia from small farms (less than 2ha; 2 TLU)
Future: Small or large farms?
Large commercial farms pro-efficiency (foreign capital investment)
Smallholder development possibly more pro-poor
Smallholders: Low opportunity cost of labour
Do diversified smallholder farms promote biodiversity and better management of ecosystems services?
Smallholder sector fragmented: What actors are needed to support it?
Trajectory of change?
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Livestock and the environment
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Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops to 2050
Climate change What will happen to feed resources? diseases? productivity?
Courtesy of Andy Jarvis
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Global greenhouse gas efficiency per kg of animal protein produced
Large inefficiencies in the developing world– an opportunity?
Herrero et al PNAS (forthcoming)
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Production efficiency – developed countries
22
Capper et al., 2009
Feed, breed,
health =
4 fold milk
increase
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Estimated GHG emissions per kg of FPCM at farm gate, averaged by main
regions and the world
23
FAO, 2010
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Trade-offs: Environment−livelihoods
Use of biomass– for soil or feed (or fuel)
Reduction of animal numbers– implications for livelihoods
Producing with smaller environmental footprint
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Livestock and livelihoods
Livestock production and marketing are essential for the livelihoods of almost 1 billion
Two-thirds are women
1.3 billion people employed in livestock value chains globally
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Role of animals
Multiple Comparing cattle systems in Kenya, Zambia and Sri Lanka:
– Up to 40% of benefits from livestock keeping came from non-market, intangible benefits, mostly insurance and financing
– Insurance: – Financing:
Livestock - an inflation-proof savings/investment Manure, traction, social
26
ILRI/Mann
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Livestock and human health
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2000 0 2000 4000 Kilometers
Diseases
# Anthrax
# Avian Influenza
# Botulism
# Bovine TB
# Brucellosis
# C. difficile
# Cryptosporidium
# Diarrhea
# Dysentery
# Foodborne Illness
# Gastroenteritis
# Leptospirosis
# Salmonella
# Trichinosis
# Waterborne Illness
N
Population Dens ity (person per sq km)
0 - 5
5 - 10
10 - 25
25 - 50
50 - 100
100 - 250
250 - 500
500 - 1000
1000 - 2500
2500 - 5000
5000 - 10000
100000 - 250000
25000 - 50000
50000 - 100000
Livestock and human disease
• Animal-source foods are the
biggest contributor to food-
borne diseases.
• Diseases transmitted from
livestock and livestock
products
kill more people each year
than HIV or malaria.
• One new human disease
emerges every 2 months and
20% of these come from
livestock.
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To eat or not to eat . . . meat, milk and fish
1 billion undernourished
2 billion overweight
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Research challenges and opportunities
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Informing the global research agenda Biophysical research
• Addressing productivity (feed-breed-health) • Enhancing efficient animal production – environmental issues • Addressing and informing livestock-human nutrition • Disease challenges • Practical environmental solutions
Institutional • Incentives and institutional arrangements for environmental
stewardship – payment for ecosystem services • Market and service provision models • Business enterprise models • Evidence to guide public and private sector roles and investments in
livestock
Livestock systems transition • An opportunity to address future food needs • Diversity of starting points and solutions • Research-for-development to address transition:
– Environmentally, socially, economically equitable and sustainable - INCLUSIVE
–
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….research that enhances understanding and targeting options and provides biophysical and institutional solutions must be combined to enhance the transition of today’s smallholder livestock farms through inclusive growth to be a vibrant part of the food, poverty alleviation, environmental and health solutions for the future………….
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