the global operational oceanography forecasting system and
TRANSCRIPT
The global operational oceanography forecasting system and services in
China
National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center
May 7, 2019
Hui Wang, Xueming Zhu, Liying Wan,
Yu Zhang, Xi Liang, Na Liu, Qizhen Sun
The development of ocean circulations numerical forecast system in China
The loose regional forecast system
The first CGOFS
The second CGOFS withhigher resolution andadvanced technique
2013 2018
Global
Indian Ocean
NW
P
SCS
ECS
Arctic6
Based on POM for Bohai Sea、East China Sea、Northwest Pacific Ocean
System settings
● Model settings
– Model: NEMO 3.6
– Horizontal Reso.：1/12°
– Vertical Reso.：0~6000 m 75 layers，the upper 0-500m with 1-40 m
– Tripolar grids in horizontal
– Partial-z coordinates in vertical
– Bathymetry：GEBCO+ETOPO
– Forecasting Prescription 5~10d
– Surface forcing: NCEP and ECMWF GFS
● Physical Parameterization
– Vertical mixing: TKE
– Horizontal mixing: along with isopycnal surface
– Mode-split
– sea ice parameterization: LIM3
The second generation CGOFS
NCEP GFS NMEFC GFS CMA GFS ECMWF GFS
Surface Atmosphere Forcing
IVTT STDStatic
visualizationDynamic
visualizationSTD Archived
Fixed-point regional elements
Producing and disseminating product
Data Assimilationsystem
System frame
Tree system architecture➢Data Collection subsystem➢Hierarchical assimilation
subsystem➢Numerical Forecasting subsystem➢Quasi online product produce
subsystem
The second generation CGOFS
Data acquisition
Send data
File info. acquisition
Forecast products acquisition
Original product
acquisition
Administrator Platform (AP)Acquire data info. from CP, download data from DDS and upload data to CP each 5 mins
Acquire forecast products from CP and send to DAS each 5 mins
arrange Document Bulletin and send to administrator each 5 mins
Administrator`s E-mail
Data Download Server (DDS)Starting and checking surface forcing and observing data each 5mins
Data archive server (DAS)Forecast data archiveForecast product disseminationForecast data analysis
Calculating Platform (CP)Conduct the following 3 tasks each 10 mins ：✓Data maintenance✓numerical forecasting integration✓producing forecasting products
Running platform
File info. acquisition
Send forecast products
The second generation CGOFS
High performance calculation
Sending the output to special XIOS process，can realize：
1、parallel IO2、IO and calculating at the same time3、decreasing output files number4、Flexibly customize output variables
Example of NMEFC’s cluster
Sin
gle
no
de
NEMO*27
XIOS*1
Sin
gle
no
de
NEMO*27
XIOS*1
⋮⋮⋮
40 n
od
es
NEMO*1080
XIOS*40
Comparing with the setting without XIOS，operating efficiency can improve 15%
NEMO进程1
NEMO进程2
NEMO进程12
NEMO进程13
NEMO进程14
NEMO进程24
XIOS进程1
NEMO XIOS_Server
XIOS进程2
模式产品
并行单文件输出
并行多文件输出
模式产品Part2
模式产品Part1
Para
llel m
ulti-file
s ou
tpu
t
Para
llel sin
gle
files o
utp
ut
The second generation CGOFS
DA/forecast product classify
level Classify information
0 Without DA
1 SST or SLA——nudging
2 SST and SLA——nudging
3 one of SST, SLA, Argo——PDAF
4 two of SST, SLA, Argo——PDAF
5 all of SST, SLA, Argo——PDAF
The second generation CGOFS
• Classify the DA products to 6levels according to thedifficulty of generation, eachlevel corresponds to differentobs. source, in order to ensurethe operation is notinterrupted.
• Multi-DA systems running incycle, in order to provide thebest analysis fields.
• The forecast product is alsodivided into correspondinglevels according to the initialfields level, and the cycleinspection is conducted toupdate to the best level.
Days -1
Days -2
Days -3
Days -4
Days -5
Days -60
10 ensemblesecond-order exact sampling
(Pham, 2001)
OBS. DATASLA、SST、Argo T/S
Forecasted
LESTKFLocal Error Subspace Transform Kalman Filter
(Nerger, L et al. 2012)
AnalyzedModel daily average
increment
The second generation CGOFSDA Scheme
➢ Adjusting surface based on PDAF
W/O DA surface / PDAF Adjusting GC Adjusting TS profile
SST（℃） 1.2 0.9 0.6 (adjust mixing layer)
SLA（cm） 14 12 10 7
RMSE of 48 hours forecast avg.
Validation for the climatology
Temp Salinity
kinetic energy （with eddy） Kinetic energy （without eddy）
SST（NMEFC-GLORYS） SSS（NMEFC-GLORYS）
NMEFC
GLORYS
The second generation CGOFS
The second generation CGOFS
CGOFS V1 MOM 1/4° CGOFS V2 NEMO 1/12°
ARMOR Satellite reconstruct 1/4°
✓ Increase model resolution can improve forecast skill significantly.
✓ The current and SSH pattern of CGOFS V2 can show more details of eddy and Kuroshio and more agreement with observation than CGOFS V1
Surface currents & SSH on 2016.09.10
Validation according to GOV IVTT Class4
The second generation CGOFS
SLA SST T Profile
Bias
RMSE
AC
Validation according to GOV IVTT Class4
The second generation CGOFS
SLA SST T Profile
Products dissemination
SST
SSH
SSC
SSSOcean circulations
Sea-ice in polar regions
The second generation CGOFS
Escort mission in the Gulf of Arden
RadioactiveMonitoring
SubmersibleJiaolong
Zhongshan Station Great Wall Station
Fishery fields
The CGOFS services & applications
Flammable ice test mining
Arctic support
Antarctic Support
The CGOFS services & applicationsCustomized guarantee for flammable ice test mining
Customized internal wave monitoring and warning guarantee system based on the CGOFS
Frequency: 7×24h during February-July, 2017
Components: temperature, current, density, internal wave,
surface wave, wind
Potential User： “Blue Whale 1” Semi-submersible platform
The CGOFS services & applicationsSubmersible“Jiaolong”Exploration over 7000m in Pacific Ocean
Components: surface winds, vertical
profile of current, wave direction,
effective wave height
Customized products：time windows
for the submersion, operating direction
Mariana Trench
➢The first generation CGOFS had been built up by integratingmulti temporal and special scales and elements, which hadplayed an important role in kinds of major marine events in thedeep ocean
➢ The second generation CGOFS has been built up with higherresolutions and more intensive and high efficiency, and hasbeen used to serve the 21st-Century “Maritime Silk Road”.✓ Based on IV-TT Class4, SST’s RMSE is ~0.45°, SLA’s RMSE is ~7cm
✓ T/S profiles, it is also comparable to other systems
➢The ArcIOPS have been developed and built up, and have beenused to serve the 21st-Century “Polar Silk Road” and Chinesecommercial vessels
Conclusion
➢Mainly develop global oceanography forecasting systembased on the independent research and developmentnumerical model
➢Exploring to build up the integrative and seamlessoceanography forecasting system by coupling atmosphere,ocean, ice, and land models
Next Step Work
Thanks for your attention !