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The Global Power OutlookThe Global Power Outlook

Daniele PoponiETP 2016 Programme ManagerInternational Energy Agency

Daniele PoponiETP 2016 Programme ManagerInternational Energy Agency

GETS 2016New Delhi, 6 November 2016

GETS 2016New Delhi, 6 November 2016

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First clear signs of decoupling of CO2 emissions and GDP Global energy-related CO2 emissions flattened in 2015 after

their slowest historical increase in 2014, despite growing GDP Renewable power capacity at record high with over 150 GW

installed in 2015

COP21 provided a historic push for clean energy Start of a new era of collaboration: Country-based approaches

preferred to top-down regulation New goals put forward – going beyond what everyone already

considered challenging when our first ETP was released in 2006

Growing recognition that greater innovation is essential to meet ambitious climate goals

Context Context

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Other renewable power

Buildings

Nuclear

Transport

Appliances and lighting Energy storage

Industry

Biofuels Carbon capture and storage

More efficient coal-fired power

Electric vehicles Solar PV and onshore wind

Technology Status today against 2DS targets

●Not on track ●Accelerated improvement needed ●On track

Clean energy deployment is still overall behind what is required to meet the 2°C goal, but recent progress on electric vehicles, solar PV and wind is promising

Progress in clean energy needs to accelerate

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RE Policies must keep up the good workRE Policies must keep up the good work

Select renewable power capacity additions (2014-2015)

Net additions to grid-connected renewable capacity grew at their fastest pace for the 2nd year in a row, with 150 gigawatts

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Wind Solar PV Wind Solar PV Wind Solar PVChina OECD RoW

GW

2014 2015 (estimated)

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The carbon intensity of the global economy can be cut by two-thirds through a diversified energy technology mix

Contribution of technology area to global cumulative CO2 reductions

The scale of the challengeThe scale of the challenge

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Contribution by sector to global cumulative CO2 reductions

Actions need to be pursued by stakeholders in all sectors to achieve an optimal transition strategy.

The momentum from COP21 needs to be accelerated to reach 2DS ambitionsThe momentum from COP21 needs to be accelerated to reach 2DS ambitions

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Decarbonising electricityDecarbonising electricity

Renewables combined provide 45% of the cumulative CO2 reductions in the power sector to reach the 2DS.

0

5

10

15

20

25

2013 2020 2030 2040 2050

GtC

O2

6DS

2DS

Cumulative CO2 reductions

Contribution of technology area to power sector to global cumulative CO2 reductions

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Decarbonising global electricity supply in the 2DSDecarbonising global electricity supply in the 2DS

Generation today: Fossil fuels: 68% Renewables: 22%

Generation 2DS 2050: Renewables: 67% Fossil fuels: 17%

Global electricity generation mix in the 2DS, 2013-2050

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Benefits from saving electricityBenefits from saving electricity

Electricity savings in the end-use sectors not only reduce electricity bills for consumers, but also provide investment savings in the power

sector.

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Scaling-up low-carbon deploymentScaling-up low-carbon deployment

Deployment rates of low-carbon technologies have to be drastically increased compared to current rates.

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200

Solar PV

Wind onshore

Hydro

STE

Coal with CCS

Biomass

Nuclear

Gas with CCS

Wind offshore

Ocean

Geothermal

GW/year

2010-14 2015-25 2026-35 2036-50

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India Power sector scenarios in the 2DS

India Power sector scenarios in the 2DS

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Final electricity demand by sector in India in the 2DS, 2013-2050

India: meeting exponential growth in electricity demandIndia: meeting exponential growth in electricity demand

In the 2DS, electricity demand in India reaches 4,000 TWh by 2050

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Towards significant diversification of the Indian power mixTowards significant diversification of the Indian power mix

The path followed by the power sector is expected to demonstrate the ambition of India’s low-carbon strategy

Installed capacity in the 4DS and 2DS scenarios

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Decarbonising Indian electricity supply in the 2DSDecarbonising Indian electricity supply in the 2DS

In the 2DS, renewables reach 84% of the Indiangeneration mix by 2050

Indian electricity generation mix in the 2DS, 2013-2050

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Cities’ contribution to decarbonizing power generation in IndiaCities’ contribution to decarbonizing power generation in India

Technical potentials from selected urban supply sources and electricity demand in India in 2050

Growing cities and metropolitan areas could rely on local renewable energy supply - with smart grids enabling the transition

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Thank youThank you