The Greater Grand Canyon-Peaks Ecosystem &the Arizona Ecological Transect

byNeil Cobb

Kirsten IronsideAmy Whipple

Northern Arizona University

The Greater Grand Canyon-Peaks Ecosystem &the Arizona Ecological Transect

The Arizona Ecological Transect:Greater Grand Canyon-Peaks Ecosystem

Drought – Pinyon – Global Warming

Climate Change Research

Building Bridges

Regional Networks

Greater Grand Canyon-Peaks Ecosystem

StreamsGreater Grand Canyon-Peaks Ecosystem

Highways

Cities

Greater Grand Canyon-Peaks Ecosystem

Southern Greater Grand Canyon-Peaks Ecosystem

Northern Greater Grand Canyon-Peaks Ecosystem

C Hart Merriam Elevation Gradient

Beaver Creek Experimental Watershed

Major Gradients1. Temperature2. Precipitation3. Urban-Wildlands & Land Use4. Soil Chronosequence (5 mya)

C Hart Merriam Gradient

Environmental Gradientsas Barometers

of Global Change

Rainout/Rainon Shelters

Arthropod Pitfall Traps

Pinyon Transplants

Transect Corners

Nitrogen FertilizationPlots

Gradient Researchand Education Projects

Egbert Schwartz Maribeth Watwood

Microbial Ecology

Bruce Hungate Steve HartEcosystem Ecology

George Koch Tom Kolb

Plant Physiological Ecology

Nancy Johnson Kitty Gehring

Mycorrhizal Ecology &Ecological Genetics

Wireless Sensor Networks

Paul Flikkema

Climate Change Research:Ecosystem Perspective

Mesquite Scrub

Pinyon-Juniper

Ponderosa

Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed

Beaver Creek Experimental Watershed

USFS Rocky Mountain Research Station & UofAresearch activities dating back to the 1950’s.

The United Nations “Man and the Biosphere” Preserve

The V-V ranch

Mesquite Scrub

Pinyon-Juniper

Ponderosa

Flagstaff

Payson

Prescott

Beaver CreekExperimentalWatershed

Beaver

Creek

Fossil C

reek“Sinagua Circle”

Conserving Water through theAges

USFS-University Collaboration

Walnut Creek Center forEducation and Research

Merriam-PowellResearch Station

Sierra AnchaField Station

Santa RitaExperimentalRange Southwest

Field Station

Beaver CreekWatershed

Arizona Field Station Network

Walnut Gulch

A FrameworkFor buildingThe transect

Precipitation Exps

Temperature Exps

Flux Towers

Phenology Networks

Legacy Networks

Data Access Project

Northern ArizonaResearch Database

S.E.R.F.Collaboratory VisionCommunity DataResourcesPublications/Online DataGIS/Remote SensingStudy DescriptorsTechnical Resources

Cross-Data Analytical ToolsCollaborative VisualizationsAuthenticationDiscussion ForumsPersonal Analyses Tool Kits

Cross-Pollination & OutreachGraduate Student Exchange

Navajo Nation Outreach ProgramSpecial sections to SERF & INRAM

ThemesResetting ecosystems: Landscape to RegionEvolutionary Ecology of Extreme EventsGlobal Climate ChangePhenology ShiftsCascading Impacts on BiodiversityInvasive Species

ProductsGrand Theme & Review PapersOriginal Research PapersIT advancement papersModelingWhite paper protocols

Policy Papers

DIREnet

CoordinationNAU Coordinating TeamSteering CommitteeCore Participants

Other NetworksInformation Portals

S.E.R.F.Collaboratory VisionCommunity DataResourcesPublications/Online DataGIS/Remote SensingStudy DescriptorsTechnical Resources

Cross-Data Analytical ToolsCollaborative VisualizationsAuthenticationDiscussion ForumsPersonal Analyses Tool Kits

Cross-Pollination & OutreachGraduate Student Exchange

Navajo Nation Outreach ProgramSpecial sections to SERF & INRAM

ThemesResetting ecosystems: Landscape to RegionEvolutionary Ecology of Extreme EventsGlobal Climate ChangePhenology ShiftsCascading Impacts on BiodiversityInvasive Species

ProductsGrand Theme & Review PapersOriginal Research PapersIT advancement papersModelingWhite paper protocols

Policy Papers

DIREnet

CoordinationNAU Coordinating TeamSteering CommitteeCore Participants

Other NetworksInformation Portals

Drought as an Additional Controlon PJ Woodlands

ParadigmGrazing & Fire Suppression

Promote Woodlands

Modified ParadigmDroughts Can Reset

Successional Clock of Woodlands

1936

1997

Infilling of Pinyon-Juniper Woodlands

High Elevation

Low Elevation

Medium Elevation

1936 to1996

60 yearsofwoodlandchange

Circles are proportional to % mortality

1996-2004 Pinyon-Juniper Mortality

100%

40%

20%

33%

10%

5%

Pinyon Juniper

San Francisco Peaks

May 17, 2003 North of San Francisco Peaks

September 20, 2003 North of San Francisco Peaks

PJ Woodland Juniper Woodland

Legend1883193619972004

*Error bars represent range of possible 1883 values, not SEM

*

*

*

Percent Cover Change 1883-2004

1892 Resetting Ecosystems

2001 109 Years of Increasing Woodland

2003 Densities Comparable to 1883Government Land Office Records

Are Pinyon-Juniper WoodlandsSet for a New Trajectory??

Southwest Climate

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Average

Annual

Temperature

(Fareinheit)

53

54

55

56

57

58

Average

Precip(In)

8

9

10

11

12

13

TemperaturePrecipitation

A Hotter Drought: A First Look at Global WarmingDrought?

Breshears et al. 2005. Regional vegetation die-off in response toglobal-change type drought.

(In Press, Proceedings of National Academy of Sciences USA).

Invasive Species

Changing LandUse

Global Warming

Ecological Impacts Unpredictable

Management Issues more Complex