the history of the future price of oil - joint global …...the history of the future price of oil...

The History of the Future Price of OilJJ Dooley, MA Wise and PJ Runci

Joint Global Change Research Institute

May 28, 2008

PNNL-SA-60763

2

Climate change is a long-term strategic problem with implications for today

Climate change is a long-term strategic problem with implications for today

Stabilizing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and not their annual emissions levels should be the overarching strategic goal of climate policy.

This tells us that a fixed and finite amount of CO2 can be released to the atmosphere over the course of this century.

We all share a planetary greenhouse gas emissions budget.Every ton of emissions released to the atmosphere reduces the budget left for future generations. As we move forward in time and this planetary emissions budget is drawn down, the remaining allowable emissions will become more valuable. Emissions permit prices should steadily rise with time. $0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

$/to

nne

CO

2 (20

00$)

450 ppm Stabilization550 ppm Stabilization650 ppm Stabilization750 ppm Stabilization

-

5

10

15

20

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 2150 2200 2250 2300

Glo

bal F

ossi

l Fue

l Car

bon

Em

issi

ons

Gig

aton

s pe

r Yea

r .

r

Historical EmissionsGTSP_750GTSP_650GTSP_550GTSP_450GTSP Reference Case

3

Stabilization of CO2 concentrations means fundamental change to the

global energy system

Stabilization of CO2 concentrations means fundamental change to the

global energy system

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ/

year

.

.

FutureHistory

Preindustrial280 ppm

1900300 ppm

1950310 ppm

Today380 ppm

2050510 ppm

2100740 ppm

Oil Oil + CCSNatural Gas Natural Gas + CCSCoal Coal + CCSBiomass Energy Nuclear EnergyNon-Biomass Renewable Energy End-use Energy

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

EJ/

year

.

FutureHistory

Preindustrial280 ppm

1900300 ppm

1950310 ppm

Today380 ppm

2050490 ppm

2100550 ppm

4

CCS Deployment by Electric Utilities IGCC+CCS and Nuclear Are Keys to

Decarbonizing Baseload Power

CCS Deployment by Electric Utilities IGCC+CCS and Nuclear Are Keys to

Decarbonizing Baseload Power

In 2005, conventional fossil- fired power plants were the predominant means of generating competitively priced electricity.

However, given today’s and (likely) tomorrow’s higher natural gas prices and the imposition of a hypothetical binding greenhouse gas control policy,

While renewables are likely to grow substantially, IGCC+CCS and nuclear become -- in some regions of the U.S. -- the dominant means of generating low-carbon baseload electricity.

Dispatch Cost

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000

M W

$/M

Wh

Renewables

Nuclear

PC

New Gas CC

Gas CT

Gas Steam

PC Gas CC

PC

Min Dispatch 50 pctile 90 pctile

IGCC CCS

2045

Dispatch Cost

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000

M W

$/M

Wh

Renewables

Nuclear

PC

Gas CT

Gas Steam

PC

Gas CC

PC

Min Dispatch 50 pctile 90 pctile

PC

2005

5

Two Core Principals for Good Guide Climate Policy

(Edmonds, 1999)

Credible CommitmentThere needs to be a credible expectation that the future energy regime will be different than the past. Technology maturation cycles are significantly longer than political cycles, the Commitment must be binding and transcend multiple political cycles for non-carbon energy technologies to have a chance of achieving significant market penetration.

Means of Controlling Real CostsThere needs to be a credible expectation that the cost of implementing a commitment will not be too onerous. If sticking with the Commitment is too painful (costly), it will ultimately implode.

6

US Oil Prices 1861-2008US Oil Prices 1861-2008

$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

1861 1871 1881 1891 1901 1911 1921 1931 1941 1951 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001

Aver

age

Anu

al O

il Pr

ices

US

Dol

lars

Real (2005US$)

Nominal (US$)

Average 2008 Price through May 16, 2008

7

U.S. Oil Prices 1969-2008U.S. Oil Prices 1969-2008

$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Prev

ious

Glo

bal O

il Pr

ice

Proj

ectio

ns v

s A

ctua

l Glo

bal O

il P

rice

$/bb

l (re

al 2

005

US$

)


8

History of Oil Price Projections and Actual Oil Price (real 2005 US$)


$-

$20

$40

$60$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

Pre

viou

s G

loba

l Oil

Pric

e P

roje

ctio

ns v

s A

ctua

l Glo

bal O

il P

rice

$/bb

l (re

al 2

005

US$

)

Resources in America's Future (RFF 1962) Steele (Feb 1973)Baughman Free Flowing Imports Scenario (Feb 1973) Baughman Restricted Imports Scenario (Feb 1973)IEW (December 1981) Low Cost Scenario:Energy in a Finite World (1981)High Cost Scenario: Energy in a Finite World (1981) Yergin & Hillenbrand (1982) Low PriceYergin & Hillenbrand (1982) High Price AEO 1982AEO 1983 IEW (July 1984)AEO 1984 AEO 1985AEO 1986 AEO 1987IEW (January 1987) Long Range Projections: Low Energy Efficiency Case (DOE 1988)Long Range Projections: Reference Case (DOE 1988) Long Range Projections: High Energy Efficiency Case (DOE 1988)AEO1989 IEW (January 1990)AEO 1990 AEO 1991AEO 1992 GRI 1992AEO 1993 IEW (January 1993)AEO 1994 AEO 1995IEW (January 1996) AEO 1996AEO 1997 AEO 1998AEO 1999 AEO 2000AEO 2001 AEO 2002AEO 2003 AEO 2004AEO 2005 AEO 2006Actual


9

Oil Prices and Projections Pre-1973 Arab Oil Embargo (real 2005 US$)

Oil Prices and Projections Pre-1973 Arab Oil Embargo (real 2005 US$)

$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Prev

ious

Glo

bal O

il Pr

ice

Proj

ectio

ns v

s A

ctua

l Glo

bal O

il Pr

ice

$/bb

l (re

al 2

005

US$)


10

Expectations and Incentives Matter: Pre-1973 Arab Oil Embargo

Expectations and Incentives Matter: Pre-1973 Arab Oil Embargo

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Mill

ions

of R

eal 2

005

US$

Other Energy R&D (e.g., Basic Energy Sciences) Nuclear (Fission)Fusion Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (1968-1985)Fossil Synfuels Program (1970-1984)Sequestration Large Scale Solar Demonstrations (1978-1982)Renewable Energy Energy ConservationEfficiency and Renewables

Federal Energy R&D Investments (1961-2008)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mill

ions

of b

arre

ls o

f per

oleu

m u

sed

to g

ener

ate

elec

tric

y w

ithin

the

U.S

. per

yea

r

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Petr

oleu

m-fi

red

gene

ratio

n as

a p

erce

nt o

f all

elec

tric

ity g

ener

atio

n

Petroleum (millions of barrels per year)

Petroleum (percent of total electricitygeneration)

U.S. Oil-fired Electric GenerationInvestments (1950-2007)

Federal investments in energy R&D were stable or in decline and were overwhelmingly focused on nuclear power.

The electric utility sector was rapidly expanding its use of (cheap) petroleum.

11

Oil Prices and Projections Made Between the Major Oil Disruptions of the

1970s (real 2005 US$)

Oil Prices and Projections Made Between the Major Oil Disruptions of the

1970s (real 2005 US$)

$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Prev

ious

Glo

bal O

il Pr

ice

Proj

ectio

ns v

s A

ctua

l Glo

bal O

il Pr

ice

$/bb

l (re

al 2

005

US$

)


12

Expectations and Incentives Matter: Between the Major Oil Disruptions of

the 1970s

Expectations and Incentives Matter: Between the Major Oil Disruptions of

the 1970s

$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Mill

ions

of R

eal 2

005

US$



0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mill

ions

of b

arre

ls o

f per

oleu

m u

sed

to g

ener

ate

elec

tric

y w

ithin

the

U.S

. per

yea

r

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Petr

oleu

m-fi

red

gene

ratio

n as

a p

erce

nt o

f all

elec

tric

ity g

ener

atio

n

Petroleum (millions of barrels per year)

Petroleum (percent of total electricitygeneration)

U.S. Oil-fired Electric GenerationInvestments (1950-2007)

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,00019

7719

7919

8119

8319

8519

8719

8919

9119

9319

9519

9719

9920

0120

0320

05

Mill

ions

of R

eal 2

005

US$

Other/Unclassified Energy R&DNonconventional Energy R&DDownstream Natural GasOther CoalCoal Gasification/LiquefactionOther PetroleumGas to LiquidsOil and Gas Recovery

Major US Oil and Gas Companies Investments in Energy R&D (1961-2008)

Federal and private sector investments in energy grew dramatically and became a more well rounded portfolio of activities.

Electric utilities quickly reversed course and rapidly decreased their use of petroleum.

13

Oil Prices and Projections 1980s (real 2005 US$)


$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Prev

ious

Glo

bal O

il Pr

ice

Proj

ectio

ns v

s A

ctua

l Glo

bal O

il Pr

ice

$/bb

l (re

al 2

005

US$)


14

Expectations and Incentives Matter: The 1980s


$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Mill

ions

of R

eal 2

005

US$



$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

U.S

. Ven

ture

Cap

ital I

nves

ted

in "

Indu

stria

l/Ene

rgy"

Fi

eld,

Mill

ions

of C

onst

ant 2

005

US$

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Fund

ing

for "

Indu

stria

l/Ene

rgy"

Fie

ld a

s a

Perc

ent o

f All

U.S

. Ven

ture

Cap

ital F

undi

ng

Venture Capital Investments in"Industrial/Energy" DealsVenture Capital Devoted to "Industrial/Energy"Deals as a Percent of All Venture Capital

U.S. Venture Capital Investmentsin Energy 1980-2007

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,00019

7719

7919

8119

8319

8519

8719

8919

9119

9319

9519

9719

9920

0120

0320

05

Mill

ions

of R

eal 2

005

US$



As time passed and the oil disruptions of the 1970s faded into memory, the less priority was accorded to investments in new energy technologies.

15



3,900 miles of CO2pipeline built to date

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Pre-1980 1980-1990 1990-2000 2000s

Mile

s of

Lar

ge C

O2 P

ipel

ines

by

Sta

te a

nd D

ecad

e of

Con

stru

ctio

n

North Dakota / Wyoming

Louisiana / Mississippi

Texas/ New Mexico / Colorado / Oklahoma

>60% of this was built in the 1980s>50% was built in and around West

Texas in the 1980s

16



Most of the existing CO2 pipeline infrastructure was built during a period of rapidly declining oil prices.This was in part due to the fact that the federal government was sending a clear signal that it would support domestic oil production and that this support would not be short-lived:

During the relatively short period 1980-1985, major U.S. oil companies paid over $88.5 billion in Windfall Profits Taxes to the U.S. Government.

It was also due to the fact that their was a widely held belief that oil prices would begin to increase in the near future.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1971 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Act

ive

CO

2-dr

iven

EO

R F

lood

s in

the

U.S

. per

Yea

r

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

Ave

rage

Dom

estic

Oil

Pric

e $/

bbl (

2005

US$

)

Active CO2-driven EOR Projects

Domestic Oil Price (2005 US$)

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1971

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

U.S

. Dom

estic

Oil

Pro

duct

ion

usin

g C

O2 E

OR

(b/d

)

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

Ave

rage

Dom

estic

Oil

Pric

e $/

bbl (

2005

US$

)

CO2-driven EOR Production (b/d)


17



$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Prev

ious

Glo

bal O

il Pr

ice

Proj

ectio

ns v

s A

ctua

l Glo

bal O

il Pr

ice

$/bb

l (re

al 2

005

US$)


18



$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Mill

ions

of R

eal 2

005

US$



$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

U.S

. Ven

ture

Cap

ital I

nves

ted

in "

Indu

stria

l/Ene

rgy"

Fi

eld,

Mill

ions

of C

onst

ant 2

005

US$

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Fund

ing

for "

Indu

stria

l/Ene

rgy"

Fie

ld a

s a

Perc

ent o

f All

U.S

. Ven

ture

Cap

ital F

undi

ng



$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,00019

7719

7919

8119

8319

8519

8719

8919

9119

9319

9519

9719

9920

0120

0320

05

Mill

ions

of R

eal 2

005

US$



As time passed and the oil disruptions of the 1970s faded into memory, the less priority was accorded to investments in new energy technologies.

19



$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

Prev

ious

Glo

bal O

il Pr

ice

Proj

ectio

ns v

s A

ctua

l Glo

bal O

il Pr

ice

$/bb

l (re

al 2

005

US$)


20



CO2 -driven EOR on the upswing.

More venture capital is being devoted to “energy” investments.

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1971 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Act

ive

CO

2-dr

iven

EO

R F

lood

s in

the

U.S

. per

Yea

r

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

Ave

rage

Dom

estic

Oil

Pric

e $/

bbl (

2005

US$

)



-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1971

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

U.S

. Dom

estic

Oil

Pro

duct

ion

usin

g C

O2 E

OR

(b/d

)

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

Ave

rage

Dom

estic

Oil

Pric

e $/

bbl (

2005

US$

)



$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

U.S

. Ven

ture

Cap

ital I

nves

ted

in "

Indu

stria

l/Ene

rgy"

Fi

eld,

Mill

ions

of C

onst

ant 2

005

US$

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Fund

ing

for "

Indu

stria

l/Ene

rgy"

Fie

ld a

s a

Perc

ent o

f All

U.S

. Ven

ture

Cap

ital F

undi

ng



21



$-

$20

$40

$60$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

2005

2008

2011

2014

2017

2020

2023

2026

2029

Pre

viou

s G

loba

l Oil

Pric

e P

roje

ctio

ns v

s A

ctua

l Glo

bal O

il P

rice

$/bb

l (re

al 2

005

US$

)

Resources in America's Future (RFF 1962) Steele (Feb 1973)Baughman Free Flowing Imports Scenario (Feb 1973) Baughman Restricted Imports Scenario (Feb 1973)IEW (December 1981) Low Cost Scenario:Energy in a Finite World (1981)High Cost Scenario: Energy in a Finite World (1981) Yergin & Hillenbrand (1982) Low PriceYergin & Hillenbrand (1982) High Price AEO 1982AEO 1983 IEW (July 1984)AEO 1984 AEO 1985AEO 1986 AEO 1987IEW (January 1987) Long Range Projections: Low Energy Efficiency Case (DOE 1988)Long Range Projections: Reference Case (DOE 1988) Long Range Projections: High Energy Efficiency Case (DOE 1988)AEO1989 IEW (January 1990)AEO 1990 AEO 1991AEO 1992 GRI 1992AEO 1993 IEW (January 1993)AEO 1994 AEO 1995IEW (January 1996) AEO 1996AEO 1997 AEO 1998AEO 1999 AEO 2000AEO 2001 AEO 2002AEO 2003 AEO 2004AEO 2005 AEO 2006Actual


The Recent History of World Oil Prices in Local Currencies

23

Selected Currency Exchange Rates 2002-2008

Selected Currency Exchange Rates 2002-2008

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

1.00

1.20

1.40

1.60

1.80

Jan-0

2Apr-

02Ju

l-02

Oct-02

Jan-0

3Apr-0

3Ju

l-03

Oct-03

Jan-0

4Apr-0

4Ju

l-04

Oct-04

Jan-0

5Apr-

05Ju

l-05

Oct-05

Jan-0

6Apr-

06Ju

l-06

Oct-06

Jan-07

Apr-07

Jul-0

7Oct-

07Ja

n-08

Apr-08

per U

S$

NominalUS$EurosCanadian $100 Japan Yen

24

World Oil Prices 2002-2008 Expressed in Local Currencies

World Oil Prices 2002-2008 Expressed in Local Currencies

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Jan-0

2Apr-

02Ju

l-02

Oct-02

Jan-0

3Apr-

03Ju

l-03

Oct-03

Jan-0

4Apr-

04Ju

l-04

Oct-04

Jan-0

5Apr-

05Ju

l-05

Oct-05

Jan-0

6Apr-

06Ju

l-06

Oct-06

Jan-0

7Apr-

07Ju

l-07

Oct-07

Jan-0

8Apr-

08lo

cal c

urre

ncy

per b

arre

l


25

World Oil Prices in Local Currency Jan 2002=1

World Oil Prices in Local Currency Jan 2002=1

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

Jan-0

2Apr-

02Ju

l-02

Oct-02

Jan-0

3Apr-

03Ju

l-03

Oct-03

Jan-0

4Apr-

04Ju

l-04

Oct-04

Jan-0

5Apr-

05Ju

l-05

Oct-05

Jan-0

6Apr-

06Ju

l-06

Oct-06

Jan-0

7Apr-

07Ju

l-07

Oct-07

Jan-0

8Apr-

08

Jan

2002

=1


26

Two Core Principals for Good Guide Climate Policy

(Edmonds, 1999)

Credible CommitmentThere needs to be a credible expectation that the future energy regime will be different than the past. Technology maturation cycles are significantly longer than political cycles, the Commitment must be binding and transcend multiple political cycles for non-carbon energy technologies to have a chance of achieving significant market penetration.

Means of Controlling Real CostsThere needs to be a credible expectation that the cost of implementing a commitment will not be too onerous. If sticking with the Commitment is too painful (costly), it will ultimately implode.

$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050CO

2 Per

mit

Pric

es U

S$

WRE450WRE550

$6/tonCO2$21/tonCO2

$143/tonCO2

$90/tonCO2

$52/tonCO2

$29/tonCO2

$14/tonCO$8/tonCO2$5/tonCO2$1/tonCO2

27

Back-up SlidesBack-up Slides

28



$-

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Mill

ions

of R

eal 2

005

US$


29

U.S. Oil-fired Electric Generation Investments (1950-2007)

U.S. Oil-fired Electric Generation Investments (1950-2007)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

Mill

ions

of b

arre

ls o

f per

oleu

m u

sed

to g

ener

ate

elec

tric

y w

ithin

the

U.S

. per

yea

r

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

Petr

oleu

m-fi

red

gene

ratio

n as

a p

erce

nt o

f all

elec

tric

ity g

ener

atio

n

Petro leum (m illions of barre ls per year)

Petro leum (percent of tota l e lectric itygeneration)

30



$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

$3,500

$4,000

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

Mill

ions

of R

eal 2

005

US$


31

U.S. Venture Capital Investments in Energy 1980-2007

U.S. Venture Capital Investments in Energy 1980-2007

$-

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

U.S

. Ven

ture

Cap

ital I

nves

ted

in "

Indu

stria

l/Ene

rgy"

Fi

eld,

Mill

ions

of C

onst

ant 2

005

US$

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Fund

ing

for "

Indu

stria

l/Ene

rgy"

Fie

ld a

s a

Perc

ent o

f All

U.S

. Ven

ture

Cap

ital F

undi

ng


32

Number of U.S. CO2 EOR Floods 1971-2008

Number of U.S. CO2 EOR Floods 1971-2008

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1971 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Act

ive

CO

2-dr

iven

EO

R F

lood

s in

the

U.S

. per

Yea

r

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

Ave

rage

Dom

estic

Oil

Pric

e $/

bbl (

2005

US$

)



33

Domestic U.S. CO2 EOR Oil Production 1971-2008

Domestic U.S. CO2 EOR Oil Production 1971-2008

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1971

1974

1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

U.S

. Dom

estic

Oil

Pro

duct

ion

usin

g C

O2 E

OR

(b/d

)

$-

$10

$20

$30

$40

$50

$60

$70

$80

$90

Ave

rage

Dom

estic

Oil

Pric

e $/

bbl (

2005

US$

)



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