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The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition Dr. Peter Hantos The Aerospace Corporation System and Software Technology Conference, Salt Lake City, UT April 26-29, 2010 © The Aerospace Corporation 2010 1

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Page 1: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition

Dr. Peter HantosThe Aerospace Corporation

System and Software Technology Conference, Salt Lake City, UTApril 26-29, 2010

© The Aerospace Corporation 20101

Page 2: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

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Page 3: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

About Your Presenter

Dr. Peter HantosSenior Engineering SpecialistThe Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation

P.O. Box 92957-M1/112Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957

Phone: (310) 336-1802EMail: [email protected]

Dr. Hantos is a Senior Engineering Specialist in the Software Acquisition and Process Department of The AerospaceCorporation. In this capacity he supports the US Air Force and various customers of Aerospace’s National Systems Groupin acquiring military satellite systems. He has over 35 years of combined experience as professor, researcher, softwareengineer and manager, with accomplishments in software engineering, manufacturing automation, office automation andsignal processing.

As a senior software engineer at Xerox he was member of the original development team that was chartered to bring intothe product development domain the world-known inventions from the Xerox Palo Alto Research Center (PARC), primarilythe use of the desktop, icons, mouse-control and network paradigms. Successfully directed engineering and quality processdevelopment on all levels of the enterprise. As principal scientist of the Xerox Corporate Software Engineering Center developed and implemented two corporate-wide processes for software-intensive product development and for the

Slide 2Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

assessment of software technology readiness. In the same capacity he also implemented a corporate-wide software risk assessment program. He holds M.S. and Ph.D. degrees in Electrical Engineering from the Technical University of Budapest,Hungary.

Page 4: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Acknowledgements

• This work would not have been possible without the following:– The Aerospace Corporation Reviewers– The Aerospace Corporation Reviewers

• Suellen Eslinger• Dr. Sergio Alvarado• B. Zane Faught

– Funding source• The Aerospace Corporation’s Software Acquisition Independent p p q p

Research & Development (IR&D) Project

Slide 3Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

Page 5: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Agenda

• Background• Motivation• What is Agility?• Approach

C t t Th A i iti S t (Th Bi “A” A i iti P )• Context: The Acquisition System (The Big “A” Acquisition Process)• Agile Software Development for New Weapon Systems• The Air Force’s Agile Acquisition Initiative• Defense Acquisition Performance Assessment (DAPA) of 2006• New DOD 5000.02 of December 2, 2008• Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act (WSARA) of 2009• Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act (WSARA) of 2009• National Research Council/Air Force Studies of 2009• The State-of-the-Affairs• The Way Forward• Acronyms• References

Slide 4Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

Page 6: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Background

• Emergence of new buzzwords in software development– Competitive pressures of the 1990s forced software companies to re-

examine their development processes and adopt radical approaches. As p p p ppa result, the industry has been flooded with buzzwords associated with “new” development approaches, e.g., “internet time”, “extreme”, and “agile”

• A flood of more management buzzwords over the past 30 years…– There has been a “bandwagon effect” of popular management

movements such as Total Quality Management, management by objectives, reinventing government, reengineering, the balanced scorecard, Lean, and Six Sigma

• However, companies that have been earlier identified as excellent on the basis of these practices later turned out to be mediocre or outright failure [Paparone 2009]

– Attempts have been made to bring agility into the Air Force acquisition process as well [Evans 2003]

• Unfortunately, the Agile Acquisition initiative did not gain any traction• Consequently, the recent recommendation to Pentagon Brass: “Stay

Slide 5Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

q y g yAway from Management Bestsellers…” [Erwin 2009]

Page 7: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Motivation

• Despite of Erwin’s recommendation…– Agility seems to be a simple concept and it is commonly

perceived as a virtueperceived as a virtue– Agile methods are making inroads into software development

• Consequently, the idea of making acquisition agile deserves a closer view

Slide 6Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

Page 8: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

What is Agility?

• The narrow dictionary definition:– Ready ability to move with quick easy grace– Agile is being quick and resourceful

• Agility is perceived a virtueg y p• In business, agility is considered an important organizational capability

• Unfortunately, in most contexts it is ill-defined or inconsistent– Agility does not simply equate with speed, as the following examples showAgility does not simply equate with speed, as the following examples show

• Agility conflicts with speed– The Titanic’s ability to turn sharply is far more likely to avert disaster

than increasing its top speed charging straight aheadthan increasing its top speed charging straight ahead• Agility requires speed but also requires balance

– Martial arts“L d l i h “ il– “Lean” does not always equate with “agile”

• Applying “Lean” might increase the rigidity of a process– Rigidity results from constraining the process in order to optimize

Slide 7Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

g y g p pthe case “right now”

Page 9: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Agility in Different Contexts

• Agility in Software Development– The prevailing characteristic of an agile software development

organization is that it institutionally embraces the agile values of the Agile Manifesto [Agile 2001]:

• Individuals and interactions over processes and tools• Working software over comprehensive documentation• Customer collaboration over contract negotiation

f• Responding to change over following a plan• Agility in Business

– Authors try to resolve the earlier discussed confusion by consideringAuthors try to resolve the earlier discussed confusion by considering agility as a two-dimensional factor [Masini 2005] :

• Range Agility – speed • Time Agility – reactiong y

– They concluded that when it comes to agility, more is not always better; the benefits are bounded and are contingent on ease and market dynamics

Slide 8Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

Page 10: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Agility in Defense

• Agility in DefenseAgility in Defense– There is a confusion about the need for systems enabling war-

fighter agility vs. the need for agile acquisition of weapon systemssystems

• There is no argument about the value of war-fighter agility. However,

W fi ht ilit b i il t d i– War-fighter agility can be primarily supported via weapons design and flexible architecture

– Faster access to new weapons is not always the right l tisolution

– Fast procurement of established weapons is important, but out of scope for this discussion

• Agility in Defense Acquisition– This is the topic of this presentation

Slide 9Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

Page 11: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Approach

• The defense acquisition system is frequently reformedThe defense acquisition system is frequently reformed– The Defense Acquisition Performance Assessment (DAPA) of

2006 mentions 9 major, prior acquisition reforms, DAPA itself is the 10th and the most recent Weapon Systems Acquisitionthe 10 , and the most recent, Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act (WSARA) of 2009 is the 11th…

– It is worthwhile to pause and see if the recommendations call for agilityagility

• These reforms are always based on identified problems or outright failures of the acquisition system– Conversely, it is also interesting to explore if agile ideas, e.g.,

Agile Software Development or the Air Force’s Agile Acquisition Initiative, are appropriate to mitigate the identified problems or failures

Slide 10Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

Page 12: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Context: The Acquisition System (Big “A” Acquisition Process)

AlliedCapabilities

JCIDS Determines required capabilities

(Requirements)

Combatant Commands

R

R

Threats

PPBE Providesfunding

JROC(DOD & Services)

OSD,White House

R

DOD 5000.02RControls implementation of capabilities and flow of

fWhite House(Executive Branch)

$1Congress(Legislative Branch)

funding(Little “a” acquisition

process)

Oversight Organizations 

(AcquisitionWorkforce)

Technology

$2Legend:JCIDS Joint Capabilities Integration & Development SystemJROC Joint Requirements Oversight CouncilPPBE Planning, Programming, Budgeting & Execution Weapon

ContractorsTechnologyR Performance & “Time to Need” Requirements

$1 Allocated Funding for Contracts$2 Allocated Funding for Acquisition Workforce

pSystems

Slide 11Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

Perceived to be a simple construct of three, well integrated inter-dependent processes

Page 13: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Agile Software Development for New Weapon Systems

AlliedCapabilities

JCIDS

Agile Software D l t

Agile Software D l t

Combatant Commands

R

R

Threats

PPBEDevelopment

PracticesDevelopment

Practices

JROC(DOD & Services)

OSD,White House

R

DOD 5000.02RWhite House(Executive Branch)

$1Congress(Legislative Branch)

Oversight Organizations 

(AcquisitionWorkforce)

Technology

$2Legend:JCIDS Joint Capabilities Integration & Development SystemJROC Joint Requirements Oversight CouncilPPBE Planning, Programming, Budgeting & Execution WeaponTechnologyR Performance & “Time to Need” Requirements$1 Allocated Funding for Contracts$2 Allocated Funding for Acquisition Workforce

pSystems

Contractors

Slide 12Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

Agile Development affects only the smaller context of the DOD 5000.02 process

Page 14: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Examining Agile Software Development Values

• Individuals and interactions over processes and tools– This value and the associated practices work well in limited settings but do

t lnot scale up• E.g., the following numbers represent space system development

– Space Vehicle Software is embedded, very largep y g• Typical size 512 Thousand Delivered Source Instructions

(KDSI), including bus software and payload(s)– Ground Systems are even largerGround Systems are even larger

• Space Shuttle size 2,000 KDSI• Satellite control systems ~ 4,700 KDSI

The role of tools and processes is very critical in the d l t f h l i i iti l tdevelopment of such large, mission-critical systems

Slide 13Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

Page 15: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Examining Agile Software Development Values (cont.)

• Individuals and interactions over processes and tools (cont.)– The following data shows the volatility of the work force*

G t S t• Government Sector– Average Annual Separation Rate 17.4% of total Government

Sector employmentA A l Hi R t 18 6%– Average Annual Hires Rate 18.6%

• Information Industry– Average Annual Separation Rate 38.3% of total Information

I d t l tIndustry employment– Average Annual Hires Rate 34%

In such a volatile environment development cannot

• Working software over comprehensive documentation

In such a volatile environment development cannot simply depend on individuals and interactions

Based on all the previous arguments, this is not a realistic principle either

Slide 14Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

* Source: Bureau of Labor Statistical Database for the period of 2001 - 2008

Page 16: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Examining Agile Software Development Values (cont.)

• Customer collaboration over contract negotiationTh D l i f d f th A t l U d A t l– The Developer is far removed from the Actual User and Actual Customer (see next slide)

• Also, there is a substantial tension between the numerous t k h ldstakeholders

At the given scale, maintaining constant collaboration even with the surrogate customers is very difficult

• Responding to change over following a plan– The mentioned, typical space vehicle software development of

even with the surrogate customers is very difficult

, yp p p512 KDSI would require roughly a 6,420 Man-Month effort, spreading over 41 months, involving ~157 Full-time Equivalent Software Personnel

At the given scale, maintaining internal collaboration without coordinated plans is not feasible either

Slide 15Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

Page 17: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Key Stakeholders in the Big “A” Acquisition Process

AlliedCapabilities

JCIDS Actual UserActual User

Surrogate UserSurrogate User

Combatant Commands

R

R

Threats

PPBE Surrogate CustomerSurrogate Customer

JROC(DOD & Services)

OSD,White House

R

DOD 5000.2R

Actual CustomerActual Customer

Surrogate User & CustomerSurrogate User & Customer(Executive Branch)

$1

Legend:

Congress(Legislative Branch)

Surrogate User & CustomerSurrogate User & Customer

DeveloperDeveloper

Oversight Organizations 

(AcquisitionWorkforce)

ContractorsTechnology

$2Legend:JCIDS Joint Capabilities Integration & Development SystemJROC Joint Requirements Oversight CouncilPPBE Planning, Programming, Budgeting & ExecutionR Performance & “Time to Need” Requirements$ ll d d f

WeaponSystems

Contractors$1 Allocated Funding for Contracts$2 Allocated Funding for Acquisition Workforce

• There is a tension between the numerous stakeholders due to different motivation/behavior• The process elements themselves are complex and ambiguous

Slide 16Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

• The process elements themselves are complex and ambiguous• Process integration is not efficient and the overall system is unstable

Page 18: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Final Thoughts on Agile Software Development

• Agile ideas using the rugby metaphor for product development emerged as early as 1986 from H. Takeuchi and I. Nonaka [Takeuchi 1986]:y [ ]– Top management offers only a general strategic direction and challenging

goals (Does not provide a specific work plan)– Hand-picked but self-organizing multi-disciplinary teams– Members work together from start to finish– Process is characterized by constant interaction (“cross-fertilization”)– Multi-level (individual and group) and multi-functional learning

• However, even Takeuchi and Nonaka noted that this holistic approach may not work in all situations:– It requires extraordinary effort throughout the span of the development

process (excessive monthly overtime – not sustainable in the long run)– It may not apply to breakthrough projects that require innovation

• Note that immature technology belongs to this categoryIt may not apply to “mammoth” projects where the sheer project scale– It may not apply to “mammoth” projects where the sheer project scale limits extensive face-to-face discussions

• Takeuchi & Nonaka specifically mention aerospace– The cultural dimensions were not analyzed for these approaches

Slide 17Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

The cultural dimensions were not analyzed for these approaches• All of the studied companies were Japanese

Page 19: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

What is Really Important? Mission Success!

• There is no declared, explicit value statement about Mission Success for Agile Development– However, Mission Success in defense acquisition is essential!However, Mission Success in defense acquisition is essential!

• The definition of Mission Success [Guarro 2007]– The achievement by an acquired system (or system of systems) to

singularly or in combination meet not only specified performance g y y p prequirements but also expectations of users and operators in terms of safety, operability, suitability, and supportability

• The definition of Mission Assurance [Guarro 2007]– The disciplined application of general systems engineering, quality, and

management principles towards the goal of achieving Mission Success, and towards this goal, this disciplined application provides confidence in its achievementits achievement

• How can you ensure that high mission assurance processes are used to develop your software?

Use a robust software development standard [Eslinger 06]– Use a robust software development standard [Eslinger 06]• Eslinger argues that even the use of so-called mature processes, such

as defined by the CMMI® is inadequate, and the government must make a robust software standard contractually compliant

Slide 18Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

make a robust software standard contractually compliant® CMMI is registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office by Carnegie Mellon University

Page 20: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Major Areas in a Typical Software Development Standard*

System and Software ArchitectureS

Preparing for Transition to Operations and MaintenanceHuman Systems Integration

Interoperability and StandardizationMetrics

and MaintenanceSoftware Configuration ManagementSW Peer Reviews and Product E l ti

Reliability, Safety, Information AssuranceProject Planning and OversightSW D l t E i t

EvaluationsSW Quality AssuranceCorrective Action

SW Development EnvironmentSystem Requirements AnalysisSW Requirements Analysis

Joint Technical and Management ReviewsRisk Management

SW DesignSW Implementation and Unit TestingUnit Integration and Testing

gSW Management Indicators (Metrics)Security and PrivacyS b t t M tUnit Integration and Testing

SW Qualification TestingSubcontractor ManagementInterface with Software IV&V Agents

Slide 19Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

* Source: [Adams 05]

Page 21: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

In Summary, What Can We Learn From My Dentist?

Si i d ti t’ ffiSign in my dentist’s office:“Brush only those teeth you wish to keep…”

Slide 20Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

Page 22: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

The Air Force’s Agile Acquisition Initiative

• Championed by Dr. Marvin R. Sambur, then Assistant Secretary of the Air Force for Acquisition*

Theme #1: Warfighter developed requirements and “tossed over the– Theme #1: Warfighter developed requirements and tossed over the wall”; acquirers tried to translate warfighter needs to contract documents

• Recommendation: Working together as a teamThi i t il i ti th Bi “A” A i iti– This is a true agile concern, impacting the Big “A” Acquisition Process

– However, there are problems with “jointness” in JROC– Managing service advocacy conflicts with the idea of managing

the DOD as an enterprise– Warfighter requirements are always tactical; the strategic

perspective is missing

The underlying problems run deep, and theThe underlying problems run deep, and the recommendation did not offer tangible solutions

Slide 21Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

* Source: [Evans 2003]

Page 23: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

The Air Force’s Agile Acquisition Initiative (Cont.)

– Theme #2: Focused Technology Transfer• Recommendation: Foster closer working relationship between labs and

programs and realign high priority limited resourcesprograms and realign high-priority, limited resources– This is a true agile concern. However, the majority of breakthrough

technologies, particularly technologies used in space, are developed by contractors and commercial industry, and not the Air Force Research Lab (AFRL)*

Labs can be directed to work on defense technology development but industry needs to be incentivized

– Theme #3: “Seams” between developmental testing and operational testing• Recommendation: Seamless verification

Bringing in testers early to get advice on testability of requirements is

development, but industry needs to be incentivized

– Bringing-in testers early to get advice on testability of requirements is not necessarily an agile concern, but there is no controversy involved

– However, it is also a euphemism for incremental sell-off of requirementsq

Impartial and independent Operational Testing and Evaluation (OT&E) must not be weakened

Slide 22Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

* This is particularly true for software

Page 24: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Defense Acquisition Performance Assessment of 2006

• Selected DAPA recommendations with possible agile consequences*– Targeting the PPBE process (Budgeting)g g p ( g g)

• Transform and stabilize the Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution (PPBE) process

– Establish a distinct, Stable Program Funding Accountg g– Program all accounts to an 80/20 confidence level

– Targeting the JCIDS process (Requirements)• Replace the JCIDS (Joint Capabilities Integration Development System)Replace the JCIDS (Joint Capabilities Integration Development System)

with a new, two-year recurring planning process based on the 15-year extended plans submitted by Combatant Commands

• Create a new, “Operationally Acceptable” test categoryy g y– Targeting the little “a” Acquisition Process

• Establish Time Certain Development as a preferred acquisition strategy– Make time a Key Performance Parameter (KPP)Make time a Key Performance Parameter (KPP)

• Establish a realistic capability delivery rate even before MS A• Complete the Test & Evaluation Management Plan (TEMP) and the

Initial Operational Testing & Evaluation Plan (IOT&EP) prior Milestone B

Slide 23Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

p g ( ) p* Source: [DAPA 2006]

Page 25: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Analysis: DAPA and Agility

• Do DAPA recommendations call for agility?Th t bili ti f th PPBE i d d– The stabilization of the PPBE process is recommended

– The proposed, new requirements process would have a 2-year duration– The creation of a stable Program Funding Account is recommended– Predictability is emphasized, time would become a KPP– All accounts to be programmed to a high, 80/20 confidence level– Realistic capability delivery rate to be established very early– Realistic capability delivery rate to be established very early– Test plans to be established very early

Most DAPA recommendations do not need agility in fact theyMost DAPA recommendations do not need agility, in fact they emphasize the opposite, i.e., stability and predictability

Slide 24Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

Page 26: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

New DOD 5000.02 (December 2, 2008)

JROCICD

Pre‐Systems Acquisition Systems Acquisition

A

TechnologyDevelopmentApproval

B

System Development &Demonstration 

Approval

Milestones: IOC

Design ReadinessReview

Low‐RateInitial ProdApproval

C

DOD 5000.02 (May 12, 2003)

ICD

Production and 

Deployment

Concept Refinement

TechnologyDevelopment

Concept Decision

SRR SFR CDR TRR SVRPDR

System Development and 

Demonstration

Pre‐Systems Acquisition Systems AcquisitionTechnology Low‐Rate

DOD 5000.02 (December 2, 2008)

Engineering and Manufacturing

JROCICD

A

TechnologyDevelopmentApproval

Production and 

Deployment

Materiel Solution Analysis

TechnologyDevelopment

Engineering and Manufacturing Development

Milestones: IOC

Post‐CDRAssessment

Low‐RateInitial ProdApproval

CB

Manufacturing DevelopmentApproval

• Milestone B decision is realigned to occur at the Preliminary

SRR SFR PDR CDR TRR SVRMateriel Development Decision

g yDesign Review (PDR)

This alignment makes the front-end of the acquisition life cycle

Slide 25Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

more loaded, indicating a waterfall, rather than agile process

Page 27: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act (WSARA) of 2009(WSARA) of 2009

Pre‐Systems Acquisition Systems AcquisitionSource Selection

DOD 5000.02 (2 December 2008)

JROCICD

A

TechnologyDevelopmentApproval

B

Engineering and Manufacturing DevelopmentApproval

Production Materiel  Technology Engineering and 

Milestones: IOC

Post‐CDRAssessment

Low‐RateInitial ProdApproval

C

SRR

and Deployment

Solution Analysis

TechnologyDevelopment

g gManufacturing Development

Materiel Development Decision

SFR PDR CDR TRR SVR

• The Director of Defense Research and Engineering (DDR&E) h ll ll d T h l R di A

DDR&E‐conducted TRAs(Annually, by March 1st)

shall annually conduct Technology Readiness Assessments (TRAs) and report results to the DOD and Congress– This is a new requirement, in addition to the already q , y

established, formal TRAs at the Milestone Reviews

Both the visibility and frequency of these new reviews guarantee

Slide 26Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

the slow-down rather than the speed-up of the process

Page 28: The Holy Grail of Agile Acquisition - DTIC · Senior Engineering Specialist The Aerospace CorporationThe Aerospace Corporation P.O. Box 92957-M1/112 Los Angeles, CA 90009-2957 Phone:

National Research Council /Air Force Studies 2009

• The National Research Council (NRC) was chartered to make recommendations to streamline Air Force and DOD Reviews*– The committee identified 31 formal reviews of four types that take a

substantial toll on the Program Manager and the Program Leadership Team, due to

• Excessive preparation and participation time• Diversion of attention from the execution of the program• Significant cost imposed

– The recommendations could only suggest the elimination or consolidation of six reviews

H th li t did t h ibl d h i• However, the list did not show every possible ad-hoc review and did not indicate the pre-reviews and pre-briefs generated by these formal reviews either

This elaborate review structure and the underlying, fundamentally phase-gated process inherently prevents agility

Slide 27Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

* Source: [NRC 2009]

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The State-of-the-Affairs

• Agile Software Development experimentation is happening but due to numerous concerns the approach seems to be inadequate and undesirable in defense acquisition

• The Air Force Agile Acquisition Initiative did not gain any tractionThe Air Force Agile Acquisition Initiative did not gain any traction but was not comprehensive enough anyway

• The DAPA report emphasized predictability and stability; neither of them is an agile valueof them is an agile value

• The current, big “A” acquisition system has serious counter-lean tendencies– Every new problem or failed project triggers a proliferation of

new committees, oversight boards, policies, extensive documentation requirements and processesdocumentation requirements, and processes

– This is a systemic issue that needs to be addressed first• The NRC experience shows that streamlining processes

Slide 28Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

is extremely difficult in the current environment

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The Way Forward

• Declaration of a proper set of agile values is needed for defense acquisition– Agility is a business strategy, a value proposition based on a value

system. It is essential to have a declared set of values that is • Widely accepted by all stakeholders• Clear and unambiguous

– However, it was shown that different stakeholders have drastically different value systems which need to be reconciled

• Agile Software Development only uses one set of “politically correct” values and assumes unconditional buy-in from all stakeholders. Unfortunately, this assumption is not realistic, even in development

– While the actual Agile Software Development value statements g pmight be inadequate, the path the authors of the Agile Manifesto devised to convey their ideas could be proven useful:

• Agile Values Agile Principles Agile Practices

Slide 29Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

g g p g

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The Way Forward (cont.)

• It is possible that even if a shared set of values and principles are defined – depending on the scope – multiple practice mappings are needed– Despite what some of the Agile Software Development

proponents claim, agile software methods do not scale wellp p , g– It can be safely assumed that in the localized contexts of JROC,

PPBE, or the little “a” acquisition process, different agile practices need to be definedp act ces eed to be de ed

• Should we emulate the business approach of IT agility proposed by Drs. Masini and Sengupta [Masini 2005]?

Their choice of terminology i e time agility and range agility– Their choice of terminology, i.e., time-agility and range-agilityis not beneficial because it conflates the issues; Separate terms and basic definitions should be established for true agile values and rapid execution valuesand rapid execution values

• Of course researching their relationship is still desirable– Another caveat when using commercial models and metrics for

defense acquisition is that the definition and role of Return on

Slide 30Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

defense acquisition is that the definition and role of Return on Investment (ROI) is drastically different in the two domains

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The Way Forward (cont.)

• The DAPA recommendation for using Systems Dynamics l i ([DAPA 2006] A di D 69 89) h ld banalysis ([DAPA 2006], Appendix D, pp 69-89) should be

rigorously implemented– The impact and unintended consequences of proposed new

practices should be always evaluated via modeling and simulation before policy statements or other guidance is drafted

• Current, relevant research efforts at The Aerospace Corporation, p p– Continuous monitoring of acquisition policy changes and

evaluation of cost and risk implications [Hantos-Kern 2009]Application of Systems Dynamics simulation to acquisition and– Application of Systems Dynamics simulation to acquisition and development [Houston-Hantos 2010]

– Application of Unified Life Cycle Modeling (ULCM ®,) a modern life cycle modeling approach developed at The Aerospacecycle modeling approach developed at The Aerospace Corporation, to explore concurrent engineering risks in software-intensive systems development [Hantos 2008]

Slide 31Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

® ULCM is registered in the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office by The Aerospace Corporation

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Questions, Comments?

Slide 32Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010 @)AEROSPACE

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AcronymsAFRL Ai F R h L b tAFRL Air Force Research LaboratoryCDR Critical Design Review

CMMI Capability Maturity Model Integration DAPA Defense Acquisition Performance Assessment

DDR&E Director, Defense Research & EngineeringDDR&E Director, Defense Research & EngineeringIOC Initial Operational Capability

IOT&EP Initial Operational Testing & Evaluation Plan IR&D Independent Research & Development IV&V Independent Verification & Validation

JCIDS J i t C bilit I t ti D l t S tJCIDS Joint Capability Integration Development SystemJROC Joint Requirements Oversight Council KDSI Thousand Delivered Source Instructions KPP Key Performance Parameter

MS MilestoneMS MilestoneNRC National Research Council

OT&E Operational Test & Evaluation PDR Preliminary Design Review

PPBE Planning, Programming, Budgeting, and Execution OROI Return on Investment

SFR System Functional Review SRR System Requirements Review SVR System Verification Review SW SoftwareSW SoftwareTC Transformational Communications

TEMP Test & Evaluation Management Plan TRA Technology Readiness Assessment TRR Test Readiness Review

Slide 33Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

ULCM Unified Life Cycle ModelingWSARA Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act

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ReferencesAdams 05 Adams, R. J. et al, Software Development Standard for Space Systems, The Aerospace , , p p y , p

Corporation Technical Operating Report, TOR-2004(3909)-3537, Revision B, March 11, 2005 Agile 01 Agile Alliance, Manifesto for Agile Software Development, 2001, http://www.agilealliance.org (Last

accessed on March 4, 2010) DAPA 06 Kadish, R., et al, Defense Acquisition Performance Assessment Final Report, March 21, 2006

<http://www acq osd mil/dapaproject/><http://www.acq.osd.mil/dapaproject/>Erwin 2009 Erwin, S.I., Washington Pulse, Pentagon Brass: Stay Away From Management Bestsellers,

National Defense, August 2009 Eslinger 06 S. Eslinger, Mission Assurance-Driven Processes for Software-Intensive Ground Systems, The

Aerospace Corporation Aerospace Technical Report , ATR-2006(8056)-1, September 30, 2006p p p p ( ) pEvans 03 Evans, M., Interview with Marvin Sambur, Assistant Secretary of the Air Force (Acquisition),

Program Manager Magazine, Defense Acquisition University Press, July-August 2003, pp 2-9 Guarro 2007 Guarro, S.B. and Tosney, W.F., editors, Mission Assurance Guide, The Aerospace Corporation

Technical Operating Report TOR-2007(8546)-6018, Rev. A, July 1, 2007 Hantos 2008 Hantos P Concurrent Increment Sequencing and Synchronization with Design StructureHantos 2008

Hantos, P., Concurrent Increment Sequencing and Synchronization with Design Structure Matrices in Software-Intensive System Development, NDIA 2008 Systems Engineering Symposium, San Diego, California, October 20-23, 2008

Hantos-Kern 2009 Hantos, P, Kern, N., Cost and Risk Impacts of the New DOD 5000 Defense Acquisition Framework, NDIA 2008 Systems Engineering Symposium, San Diego, California, October 26-29, 2009y g g y p g

Houston-Hantos 2010 Houston, D., Hantos, P., System Dynamics and Unified Life Cycle Modeling Approaches for Exploring Concurrent Engineering Risks, Space Systems Risk Management Symposium, El Segundo, CA, April 6-8, 2010

Masini 2005 Masini, A., Sengupta, K.,What is IT Agility? Does it Affect Organizational Performance? A Conceptualization and Some Empirical Evidence ” London Business School Research 2005Conceptualization and Some Empirical Evidence,” London Business School Research, 2005

NRC 2009 Air Force Studies Board/NRC, Optimizing U.S. Air Force and Department of Defense Review of Air Force Acquisition Programs, The National Academies Press, Washington D.C., 2009

Paparone 2009 Paparone, C.R., From Not-So-Great to Worse – The Myth of Best Practice Methodologies, Defense AT&L, July-August 2009

Slide 34Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010

, y gTakeuchi 86 Takeuchi, H., Nonaka, I., The New Product Development Game, Harvard Business Review,

January-February 1986

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All trademarks, service marks, and trade names are the property of their respective ownersproperty of their respective owners

Slide 35Peter Hantos – SSTC 2010