the human health poverty trap poor people are at greater risk of ill health and … … poor health...
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The human health poverty trap
Poor people are at greater risk of ill healthand …
… poor health increases the likelihood of becoming poor.
Establishes a self-perpetuating state that differs from health issue for the rich
Is there a natural disaster-poverty trap?
Poor people are at greater risk of disaster situations
but ……
do disasters increases the likelihood of becoming or remaining poor?
Disasters drive lower growth - meager savings lost to recovery efforts
Disaster events
More likely to result from erratic growth and set backs creating a “recovery gap”
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Environmental factors and economic performance
Climate variability and Malaria risk in Botswana
SST control of MaizeYield and food security in Zimbabwe
Disaster mortality risk from combined hazardsDisaster mortality risk from combined hazards
(World Bank Hot Spots: Dilley, Chen, Lerner-Lam et al)
Poor country disaster characteristics
• Large mortality relative to intensity of event, exposure levels and population density
• Large mortality uncertainty - order of magnitude
• Gender and age usually play a large roll
• Economic impact variable
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
1000.00
0.01 0.10 1.00 10.00 100.00 1000.00 10000.00Annual Disaster-Related Deaths
Annual Disaster-Related Deaths per Million Pop.
Bottom 40% HDI
Bottom 40% Average
Middle 40% HDI
Middle 40% Average
Top 20% HDI
Top 20% Average
Aggregate Natural Disasters
Source UNDP 2004
Distribution of fatalities
Flood disaster economic losses
Flood disaster mortality
Global increase in disasters
Reported Disasters, 1993 – 2002, by HDI Level
0
200
400
600
800
1000
93 94 95 96 97 98 99 0 1 2
1
2
3
Relative Cyclone Vulnerability
India
Pakistan
Papua New Guinea
Viet Nam
Bangladesh
Honduras
Nicaragua
SwazilandComoros
Lao
China
Philippines
El Salvador
Malaysia
Fiji
Cape Verde
Belize
Costa RicaJamaica
Venezuela
Colombia
Thailand
Mexico
US
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
Rep. of Korea
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000
Average population exposed to cyclones
Average annual deaths
Bottom 40% HDI
Middle 40% HDI
Top 20% HDI
Very old and young and women are at greatest risk
Relative Cyclone Vulnerability
India
Pakistan
Papua New Guinea
Viet Nam
Bangladesh
Honduras
Nicaragua
SwazilandComoros
Lao
China
Philippines
El Salvador
Malaysia
Fiji
Cape Verde
Belize
Costa RicaJamaica
Venezuela
Colombia
Thailand
Mexico
US
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
Rep. of Korea
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000
Average population exposed to cyclones
Average annual deaths
Bottom 40% HDI
Middle 40% HDI
Top 20% HDI
Very old and young and women are at greatest risk
Relative Drought Vulnerability
Guinea
Burundi
KenyaPapua New Guinea
UgandaMadagascar
Pakistan
India
Indonesia
MauritaniaChad
MozambiqueSudan
Ethiopia
Philippines
Brazil
China
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
100,000.00
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000
Average population exposed to droughts
Average annual deaths
Bottom 40% HDI
Middle 40% HDI
Top 20% HDI
Females have small survival advantage
Relative Earthquake Vulnerability
India
Guatemala
Indonesia
Nicaragua
Yemen
Uganda
PhilippinesChina
Chile
Armenia
Iran
Turkey
Brazil
Kazakhstan
Romania
Argentina
Italy
US
Japan
Australia
New Zealand
Germany
Belgium
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000
Average population exposed to earthquakes
Average annual deaths
Bottom 40% HDI
Middle 40% HDI
Top 20% HDI
Men have a smalladvantage
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
0 1 10 100 1000
Flood Vulnerability
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
HDI (1980-2000)
HDI lowest 40%
HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
Amenabad India
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
0 1 10 100 1000
Flood Vulnerability
-70
-50
-30
-10
10
30
50
70
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
HDI (1980-2000)
HDI lowest 40%
HDI middle 40%
HDI highest 20%
Islamanbad Pakistan 2005
Northridge California
Relative Flood Vulnerability
Indonesia
Nepal
Morocco
Egypt
Djibouti
Gambia
Botswana
India
Kuwait
Argentina
Venezuela
Kyrgyzstan
Kazakhstan
China
Switzerland
Japan
New Zealand
U.S.
Norway
UK
Germany
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000
Average population exposed to floods
Average annual deaths
Bottom 40% HDI
Middle 40% HDI
Top 20% HDI
Mortality risk is a combinationof physical and social Vulnerabilities: fragile dwellings in risky places.
Relative Flood Vulnerability
Indonesia
Nepal
Morocco
Egypt
Djibouti
Gambia
Botswana
India
Kuwait
Argentina
Venezuela
Kyrgyzstan
Kazakhstan
China
Switzerland
Japan
New Zealand
U.S.
Norway
UK
Germany
0.01
0.10
1.00
10.00
100.00
1,000.00
10,000.00
1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 1,000,000,000
Average population exposed to floods
Average annual deaths
Bottom 40% HDI
Middle 40% HDI
Top 20% HDI
LOW RISK
HIGH RISK
PovertyTrap
Economic Growth
Disaster shock moves economy into poverty trap region
Matthew Bonds Poverty Trap Theory
M*(I): Per capita income as a function of disease prevalence, I.
I*(M): Equilibrium disease prevalence as a function of income, M.
Shock eventin growth zonemoves economyinto zone ofPoverty Trap
Were the people of New Orleans caught in a disaster-poverty trap?
Typical levee failures
Sources: http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/v/mapping/Flood+Depth+Estimation.html; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levee_and_flood_wall_failure_in_New_Orleans_(following_hurricane_Katrina)
Metairie
New Orleans
Jefferson Parish
St. Bernards Parish
East Orleans
Algiers
(Lower Ninth Ward)
Outcomes of Social and Physical Vulnerability
Lower ninth wardNOLA
Total “official” deceases victims to date 1698.
But there are very large uncertainties:
Who keeps the official count How do you define a Katrina victim? Does it include those who died during or after moving to a different
state. There are still approx 500 who remain unaccounted for.
Total may be as many as 3000
How many died?
How do we count: who are the victims?
• Traffic accident victims?
• How should we consider suicides?
• Should we consider those shot for “looting” and other crimes?
• Should we include frail people who died from prior conditions long after Katrina (harvesting issue)?
• How do we count (or even know about) people who died after being displaced from the disaster’s location? People who die from illnesses contracted in refugee camps having been displaced by armed conflict are counted as the victims of conflict. Those who die in FEMA trailer camps are not considered Katrina victims.
Flood vulnerability
Flood vulnerability
Sources: http://www.katrinadestruction.com/images/v/mapping/Flood+Depth+Estimation.html; http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Levee_and_flood_wall_failure_in_New_Orleans_(following_hurricane_Katrina)
Outcomes of Social and Physical Vulnerability
910 deceased victims processed at St Gabriel Morgue as of Jan 18th, the main receiving center for New Orleans deceased
786 identified with age, gender and race (approx one third the total deceased victims; 124 unidentified)
629 released to families
Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims
Gender not a factor 51% male 49% femalePopulation density Not a factor: fatality rates not related to pop. density
Racial factor 50% African American 42% Caucasian All other groups less than 4%` But AA’s were represented > 85% pre-flood
Age played the greatest role: 64% older than 60 yrs (15% pre flood)
39% older than 75 yrs1% less than 5 yrs (one child less than 3yrs)less than 4% younger than 20 yrsless than 20% younger than 50 yrs
Demographic and Geographic selectivity of deceased victims
Families blame more deaths on Katrina
By MICHELLE ROBERTS, Associated Press Writer Wed Dec 13, 1:56 PM ET
NEW ORLEANS - You won't see Sylvester Major's name among the 1,698 listed officially as Hurricane Katrina victims.
He survived the floodwaters that gushed through the windows and door of his house. He persevered through miserable, fearful days at the convention center. He endured separation from family and the only hometown he had ever known. And he lived more than a year after the Aug. 29, 2005, tragedy.
Officially, he died of congestive heart failure at 59. But his family and a social worker who was with him when he died say the real cause was a broken heart, inflicted by Katrina and the loss of his elderly mother, who also died after being evacuated.
• From direct result of storm – drownings, impact trauma, fire, explosions etc during hurricane impact
• From indirect causes – traffic accidents, shootings associated with looting or other acts declared criminal, other types of accidents, suicides, increases in crime etc
• From prior conditions – those who had conditions such as heart disease or respiratory illness and those conditions fatally exacerbated by the trauma of the storm or its aftermath.
• Include a long (at least a year) harvesting period
Katrinalist.columbia.edu objective
A web-based search for ALL Katrina-related mortality