THE IMMIGRATION DEBATE

REVISED CLASS SCHEDULE

May 28: The Immigration Debate

May 30: The Ebullience of Brazil

June 04: The Latino Experience in America

June 06: Review and Study Guide

GUEST SPEAKER MAY 30

“The Ebullience of Brazil”

Simeon Nichter (UCSD Political Science) Ph.D. UC Berkeley Fellowships at Stanford, Harvard, and Center for

Global Development (Washington DC) Research: political voice of the poor, especially in

Latin America (and Brazil)

The Immigration Debate: Patterns and Policies

THE NUMBERS GAME(S)FlowsStocksProportionsCosts and benefitsRates of assimilation

Emotional Issues and Political Debates

Multiculturalism vs. melting potsDiversity vs. traditionFairness vs. efficiency

Numerical Dimensions

• ~11 million illegal immigrants in U.S.• 55-60% from Mexico• 25% of Mexico’s able-bodied male workforce now in U.S.• U.S.-Mexican wage ratio ~ 8:1 or 10:1

Undocumented Immigrants in the United States

Mexican-Origin Population in United States, 1900-2003

Mx-born (9.9)

1 02 ° 9 8° 9 4°1 06 °1 10 ° 9 0° 8 6°1 14 °

3 0°

2 6°

2 2°

1 8°

E s t a d o s U n i d o s d e A m é r i c a

G o l f o d e M é x i c o

T ró p i c o d e C án ce r

B e l ic e

E sc a l a 1 :1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0

O c é a n o P a c í fi c o G u a te m a la

1 02 ° 9 8° 9 4°1 06 °1 10 ° 9 0°1 14 °

3 0°

2 6°

2 2°

1 8°

Go l f o d e C a l i f o r n i a

(Ma r d e C o r t é s )

2 0 0 0 2 0 0 k m

Regional Origin of Mexican Migrants

Geographical Concentration of Mexican Migrants

Remittances to Mexico, 1990-2003

Border Patrol Agents

Effects of Border Enforcement

1. Shifting routes (toward Arizona)2. Increased use of coyotes (smugglers)3. Reduced “circularity” (more permanent

stays)4. More women and families5. Increased loss of life

Deaths at the Border

2001 = 528

2002 = 470

2003 = 478

2004 = 460

2005 > 500

Migration and the Global Economic Crisis

Context: joblessness everywhereNew entries down (not due to border enforcement, since

95% of migrants without papers get through)Return migration growing (despite concern in Mexico

about major increase)Net migration from Mexico ~ zeroWithin USA, unemployment among Latino men >

Anglo men

The Range of Policy Choice: Legal Migration

Revise legal quotasRevise criteria for entry

Strategies for restriction: Building fences Blocking corridors (e.g., Operation Gatekeeper) Withdrawing incentives and benefits (e.g., Prop 187) Punishing employers

Strategies for opening: Augmenting quotas Guest-worker programs Eliminating barriers

Strategies for reduction: Targeting economic development Circulating information Additional steps?

The Range of Policy Choice: Illegal Migration

Initiatives on Migration

Phase 1: The Whole Enchilada (January-September 11, 2001)

Phase 2: Focus on Security and Border Fortification

Phase 3: The Second Bush Term • Temporary amnesty for those here and employed • Guest-worker program• Eventual path to citizenship

OBAMA AND THE “GANG OF EIGHT”

Path to citizenship: Apply for green card in 10 years, citizenship 3 years after that; pay $1,000 fine plus back taxes; stay employed and learn English (faster track for Dream Act youth)

Border patrol: DHS to receive $3 billion for improved border security, including use of surveillance drones and 3,500 additional agents, plus $1.5 billion for fencing. Within 5 years DHS must achieve 100 % surveillance of border and apprehend 90% of illegal crossers in “high-risk” (densely populated) areas

Skilled workers: visas for skilled engineers and computer programmers to increase from 65,000 per year to 110,00, with an eventual cap as high as 180,000

Guest workers: new program of 20,000 for low-skilled workers, rising to 75,000 by 2019; limitation on farm workers

Family visas: tighter restrictions on family unification; point system based on family ties and work skills by 2015

A HIGHLY EDUCATED GUESS

CIR will pass in Senate with as many as 70 votes

It will fail in the House by about 7 votes

Question: What might change the odds in the House?

What Would You Do?