THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE VULNERABLE THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE VULNERABLE FISHERIES RESOURCE AND FISHERIES RESOURCE AND IITS COASTAL COMMUNITY IN TS COASTAL COMMUNITY IN

CILACAP REGENCY, INDONESIA:CILACAP REGENCY, INDONESIA:A SETA SET--UP FOR ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION STRATEGYUP FOR ADAPTATION AND MITIGATION STRATEGY

Indah SuSIlowatIIndah SuSIlowatI

WaridinWaridin

RIZKY YULIANISARIZKY YULIANISA

FACULTY OF ECONOMICS & BUSINESSDIPONEGORO UNIVERSITY-INDONESIA

The paper is presented in IIFET 2012 : Visible Possibilities: The Economics of Sustainable Fisheries, Aquaculture

and Seafood Trade. Hyatt Regency Kilimanjaro, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: July 16-20, 2012.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTACKNOWLEDGEMENT

Due to all of you, we are able to present our paper in Tanzania, 16 to 20 July 2012

(1)(1) Our deep appreciation are accorded to Our deep appreciation are accorded to the organizerthe organizer::-- special thanks to ANN SHRIVER & sponsorspecial thanks to ANN SHRIVER & sponsor

(2)(2) Thanks to my employer: Diponegoro University (Thanks to my employer: Diponegoro University (UNDIPUNDIP) ) & Higher Degree, Ministry of Education & Culture & Higher Degree, Ministry of Education & Culture ––the Gov ernment of Indonesiathe Gov ernment of Indonesia

Map of Study Map of Study AreaArea

Province: Central Java

INDONESIAINDONESIA

JAVA ISLANDJAVA ISLAND

Central Java Province

ACEHACEH

CilacapCilacap

INTODUCTIONINTODUCTION

• Significant role: fisheries sector to the coastal community; and agriculturesector to the inland/ coastal community, providing: - employment - food supply- research - other utilisation: energy, art, etc.

• Problem: Supply < Demand

KEY-WORDS

•IMPACT

•CLIMATE CHANGE

•the Vulnerable Fisheries

•COASTAL COMMUNITY

•CILACAP, INDONESIA

The objective of this study

• To estimate the impact of climate change in Cilacap and its community; and

• To formulate the adaptation and mitigation strategy under the climate change condition.

7

Affect to:

(1)PRODUCERS

(2)CONSUMERS

Vulnerable, perhaps due to:

• Declining in Stock• Climate Change• Higher Demand higher

population• Environmental Quality deteriorated• Empowerment is less • Co-Management: among A-B-G-C ?

8

Demand vs Supply

D1

D0

Price

Q1* Q0*

P1*E1

E0

S0

S1

P0*

Quantity

EquilibriumE0

ElasticInelastic

Table 1Sectoral Contribution to Gross Domestic ProductFor the Periode of 2006 to 2008 (in percent)

No. Sectors 2006 2007 2008

1 Foodcrops, Veterinary,Forestry, and Fisheries

13.0 13.8 14.7

2 Mines 11.0 11.2 11.4

3 Manufacturing Industry 27.5 27.0 27.2

4 Electricity, Gas, and Water Supply 0.9 0.9 0.8

5 Constructions 7.5 7.7 7.9

6 Trade, Hotel, and Restaurant 15.0 14.9 14.4

7 Transportation and Communication 6.9 6.7 6.2

8 Finance, Real Estate, and Other Service

8.1 7.7 7.4

9 Service 10.1 10.1 10.0

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0

Source: CBS Indonesia, 2008

Agriculture sector employs: about 30-40%

FOOD: SECURITY & SAFETY

3,383,5723,150,0572,895,6492,777,8112,469,9302,120,32251. Bali

9,028,8168,098,277nananana36. Banten

36,294,28034,765,99333,844,00232,503,99129,188,85225,516,99935. Jawa Timur

3,343,6513,121,0452,916,7792,913,0542,750,8132,489,36034. DI Yogyakarta

31,977,96831,223,25829,653,26628,520,64325,372,88921,877,13633. Jawa Tengah

38,965,44035,724,09339,206,78735,384,35227,453,52521,623,52932. Jawa Barat

8,860,3818,361,0799,112,6528,259,2666,503,4494,579,30331. DKI Jakarta

1,274,8481,040,207nananana20. Kepulauan Riau

1,043,456899,968nananana19. Kep. Bangka Belitung

7,116,1776,730,7516,657,7596,017,5734,624,7852,777,00818. Lampung

1,549,2731,455,5001,409,1171,179,122768,064519,31617. Bengkulu

6,782,3396,210,8007,207,5456,313,0744,629,8013,440,57316. Sumatera Selatan

2,635,9682,407,1662,369,9592,020,5681,445,9941,006,08415. Jambi

4,579,2193,907,7633,900,5343,303,9762,168,5351,641,54514. Riau

4,566,1264,248,5154,323,1704,000,2073,406,8162,793,19613. Sumatera Barat

12,450,91111,642,48811,114,66710,256,0278,360,8946,621,83112. Sumatera Utara

4,031,5893,929,2343,847,5833,416,1562,611,2712,008,59511. Nanggroe Aceh Darussalam

218,868,791205,132,458194,754,808179,378,946147,490,298119,208,22900. Indonesia

200520001995199019801971Province

Number of Population by Province (n=33)

2006: 220 Million

2012: 250 million?CJ: 1/7

Conference ‘People and the Sea: New Directions in Coastal and Maritime Studies’; Amsterdam, 7-9 July 2005

Susilowati, Indah et al. (2005). The Coastal Community Empowerment Model of Micro-And-Small Scales Fish Processors: Pekalongan, Indonesia. Diponegoro University.

Demand:Demand:Fish Consumption per capita

22

38

30,5

39

28

9

3

10,5

1715

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Inggris

Australia

Pantai Gading

IndiaMeksiko

Thailand

Kamboja

LaosVietnam

Indonesia

kg/p

ers/

yrs

13

MY FOOD, WHY SO FRAGILE & LESS SAFETY....

PRODUCTION, DISTRIBUTION & CONSUMPTION

quantity, quality, diversification, safety

FOOD SECURITY vs FOOD SAFETYFOOD SECURITY vs FOOD SAFETY::

Small-Scale Fisheries in Nature...

Gillnet is a kind of net to catch fish from surface- and mid-water.

Fish and swimming crab as well as shrimp will be caught from its gill onto the net.

FISHING GEARS

Cantrang is a kind of Payang net with modification likely similar to mini trawl.

Cantrang then has dual classification due to new creation made by fishers & it is conflicting in category.

Subsidence of Pier and Jetty at Harbour

CLIMATE CHANGE ? High-tide sea water

Simulation: next 20 yearsInnundated area SLR, 16 Cm

Courtesy from Pekalongan Municipality Project on Climate Change (2012)

HIGH TIDE SEA WATER

Simulation: next 60 yearsInnundated area SLR, 48 Cm

Simulation: next 80 yearsInnundated area SLR, 64 Cm

2,63 Km

2,12 Km

2,85 Km

Simulation: next 100 years ......wow !

Luas Genangan Mencapai 19.564,2 ha

SupplySupply

Fishing Fleets in Indonesia

0200400600800

10001200140016001800

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

year

num

ber

< 5 GT5 - 10 GT10 – 20 GT20 – 30 GT30 – 50 GT50 - 100 GT100 - 200 GT> 200 GT

Susilowati, Indah et al. (2005). The Coastal Community Empowerment Model of Micro-And-Small Scales Fish Processors: Pekalongan, Indonesia. Diponegoro University.

Production: by Treatment

Fish Marketing in Indonesia, 2007

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Marketing FreshDrying/ SaltingBoilingSmookingFreshsing

Materials and Method (Vulnerable)

Study Area:Cilacap

Data and Sampling:• Cross-sectional survey• Face-to-face interviews by the

trained enumerators • Instrument: semi-standardized

questionnaire and indepth interview • Respondents:

-Fishers (General): n=73a>affected by climate

change: n=43 (incl. Severed ones: n=26)

b> not affected: n=30-Consumer: n=100

• Sampling method: Multi-stage sampling

Tools of Analysis:- Economic Valuation- Descriptive statistics (C/R,

etc)

Related Study:- Empowerment of

Pekalongan Fisheries (Susilowati, et al. 2004; 2005; 2006)

- Food Security from components of production, distribution, and consumption (Achmad Suryana,2003)

24

Variables and Its Indicators

Variables Indicators of Variables Measurements Analyzing cost and benefit resulted from a production

Benefit and Cost Analysis Estimating Revenue, Variable Cost, Fixed Cost, Total Cost Profit : Revenue > Total Cost Loss : Revenue < Total Cost

Analysis of Production

1. Impact on Production Catch

Length of trip Spending

2. Impact on Distribution Physical distribution

Economic Valuation

3. Impact on Consumption Availability (local consumption) Affordability

Variability of Rainfall Density in Cilacap, 2006-2008

Variability of Sea Surface Temperature (SST) in Cilacap 2006-2008

The Results of Interview with Fishers Respondents (n=73)

No. Description Frequency Percentage 1. Knowledge about climate change

a) Yes b) No

52 21

71,2 28,8

2. Method to predict climate change a) Constellations b) Information from BMKG through radio,

television, etc. c) Information from TPI

28 15 30 0

38,4 20,5 41,1

0 3. Volume of Catch

a) Decrease b) No decrease / normal

68 5

93,2 6,8

4. Reason of decrease in catch a) Season/climate b) Increasing of fuel-price c) Others

61 3 9

83,6 4,1

12,3 5. Length of trip

a) Increase b) No increase / normal

67 6

91,8 8,2

6. Additional length of trip a) 0 days b) 1 days c) 2 days d) 3 days e) 4 days f) 7 days

6 4

16 26 16 5

8,2 5,5

21,9 35,6 21,9 6,8

7. Fuel Usage a) Increase b) No increase / normal

67 6

91,8 8,2

8. Food and Lodging Cost a) Increase b) No increase / normal

68 5

93,2 6,8

9. Increase in Maintenance Cost on Boat a) Increase b) No increase / normal

62 11

84,9 15,1

Cost and Revenue per Trip for FishersNo. Description n=73 Share TC

(percent) 1. Average of production (kg/trip) 3019,64 2. Length of trip (%)

Less than 15 days 15 to 30 days More than 30 days

12 56 5

16,4 76,7 6,8

3. Average Total Revenue 60.388.550 4. Average Total Cost 53.934.520 5. Average Fixed Cost

Depreciation of boat Depreciation of fishing gears Depreciation of engine Permit

5.871.230 4.012.810

81.990 776.440

1.000.000

10,89

7,44 0,15 1,44 1,85

6. Average Variable Cost Fuel Food & Lodging Maintenance Labor (ABK) Fees

48.063.290 12.507.530

8.338.360 7.760.270

11.421.990 87.470

89,11 23,19 15,46 14,39 21,18

0,16 7. Average Profit 6.454.030 8. R/C Ratio 1,12

Cost and Revenue per Month for Fish Traders

No. Description n=43 Share TC (percent)

1. Production (kg) 3.810,47 2. Total Revenue (Rp) 1114.313.953,49 3. Total Cost (Rp) 87.008.497,72 4. Fixed Cost (Rp) 514.033,37 0,59

5.

Variable Cost (Rp) Fish Fees Fresh-water Ice Labor Transportations Maintenance

86.494.464,35 76.209.302,33

6.000,00 245.988,37 106.952,72

6.959.302,33 2.511.395,35

455.523,26

99,41 87,59 0,01 0,28 0,12 8,00 2,88 0,52

6. Profit (Rp) 6.454.030 7. R/C Ratio 1,31

Logistic

FINDINGSFINDINGS• Cilacap is the most vulnerable area to climate

change in the southern part of Central Java• There is a decrease in catch and affected

severed losses to the respondents. • Fishers claimed had overspent in fuel, food &

lodging, repairs & maintenance and decreased in productivity.

• The availability and sustainability of fish-stock became questionable. The shocked of fisheries stock affected the chain of distribution and consumption and eventually weaken the food security and the fishers’quality of live in the region.

• 26 respondents suffered severe impacts on climate change and there were changes in direct use value, which consisted of change in productivity, change in food and lodging cost, and change in fuel cost,

• average change in productivity, food and lodging cost, and fuel cost of 26 respondents with severe impact on climate change were Rp1.5, Rp1.2 and Rp1.8 millions, while the average loss was Rp7.2 million per trip

• The adaptation and mitigation efforts(by A-B-G-C) is far from complete

STRATEGY

establishing a better extension program by:

(set up a new (set up a new extension institutionextension institutionwho responsible to underdo the who responsible to underdo the climate change mattersclimate change matters

(with main task on ADAPTATION & MITIGATION

MITIGATION• PHYSIC: such as, growing vegetation /

plants, such as: mangroves and other coastal vegetation, or structures that directly withstand sea level rise, hit a big wave and rob.

• NON-PHYSIC: need adjustments both physically and socio-economic and cultural life

CONCLUSIONS

• In short time, prescription on adaptation strategy to cope the climate change in the study area is indeed needed.

• Ecosystem-based fisheries management perhaps could be proposed as one of the way-outs to manage the vulnerable fisheries in Cilacap. This scheme seems will shed a light as a promising new paradigm of fisheries management in Indonesia.

BOROBUDUR Temple, Central Java-Indonesia

Karimunjawa Coral Reef, Central Java-Indonesia

Congratulate to the Organiser:

THANKS YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTIONS

BIOGRAPHY OF THE AUTHORBIOGRAPHY OF THE AUTHOR INDAH SUSILOWATI: is a professor at the Faculty of Economics &

Business, Diponegoro University (UNDIP), Semarang–Indonesia. She was the head of Research Institute of UNDIP. She is a lecturer in Faculty of Economics and several postgraduate programs in UNDIP.She engaged in the Directorate of Higher Education Degree, Ministry of Education, the Government of Indonesia as reviewer for research works & accreditation of study program since 2005.

• Besides that she also provides consultancy services to several Local Governments and institutions in the region.

• She is a member of Asian Fisheries Society (AFS) and International Institute of Fisheries Economic and Trade (IIFET). She also collaborated with Worldfish to promote sustainable fisheries in the region. She has high commitment in advocating the greenenvironment, fisheries management and conflict resolution to thecompetent communities or stakeholders.

• She completed her Master and Ph.D. programs in resource economics from the Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia (UPM). Her dissertation (1998) entitled “Economics of Regulatory Compliance with Fisheries Regulation in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines”. She did thesis (1991) entitled :Welfare Impact of Improved Boat Modernisation (IBMS) in Pemalang Regency, Central Java, Indonesia”. Her B.Sc. was pursued in the Faculty of Economics, UNDIP where she is attached now.

• She had has presented and published papers in national and international forum. 3939

• REPORT ATTENDING IIFET 2012 CONFERENCETANZANIA, 16-20 July 2012

• INDAH SUSILOWATI, 49 years old, female, the academic staff in the Faculty of Economics, Diponegoro University-Semarang, INDONESIA. My main research interest is in Resource Economics with major research interest in Fisheries Economics.

• I highly appreciated to the anonymous reviewer to select my paper for oral presentation and the IIFET committee and organizer for awarding this paper with grant. I was granted by IIFET in formed of a USD$2000 (cheque from Oregon University), free conference registration and IIFET membership. The titled of my paper is “The Impact of Climate Change on the Vulnerable Fisheries Resource and Its Coastal Community in Cilacap Regency, Indonesia: A Set-up for Adaptation and Mitigation Strategy”. This paper was presented in oral presentation, July, 20, 2012 in Lake Victoria room, Hyatt Regency Kilimanjaro Hotel, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania (Session I: 08:45 to 10:15) under track of the economic impact of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture (Part II) with moderator of Florian Diekert. Please find in attachment is powerpoint of presentation.

• I express my special thanks to Ann Shriver, the Executive Director of International Institute of Fisheries Economics & Trade (IIFET) at secretariat of IIFET in Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Oregon State University, USA for her sustainable communication and support. My thanks to the organizer of IIFET 2012 conference, collegues from University of Dar Es Salam-Tanzania. My high appreciation for sponsor for providing me a funding mentioned above to attend the binneal IIFET conference 2012

• I attended plenary sessions, various parallel sessions, poster and game demonstration sessions during the conference of IIFET 2012. I had have learned much from the conference. Now, I am using the materials, method and experience gained from the conference to help the government- and the other stakeholders (academic-Business-Government-Community) in the fisheries development for Indonesia. Particularly, nowadays, theGovernment of Indonesia has a heavy homework to overcome the fisheries and trade problems. As an academic person and at the sametime as a researcher, I fully aware to share my contribution and expertise in solving this problem. Further, by attending this conference, I able to improve (refresh, update and re-charge) my experience and expertise on fisheries economics and trade. I got a marvellous chance to interact with the competent people and able to enlarge my networking around the world. Furthermore, I hope will be able to disseminate the materials and thoughts learned from the conference to the direct relevant stakeholders targets (such as: DoF officers who are pursuing in the postgraduate program in Diponegoro University, bachelor student as the young generation, fishing/ or agricultural communities who are under the supervision of DiponegoroUniversity in the social services program, fishers’s and/ or farmer’s society union, and the other relevant stakeholders).

• Report prepared byIndah Susilowati-The Faculty of Economics & Business. Diponegoro University - INDONESIAEmail: indah-susilowati@rocketmail.com