The impact of domestic services on High Speed 1

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1Domestic ServicesIntroduced in December 2009

Operated by Southeastern

At speeds of up to 140mph by Hitachi Javelin bi-mode electric trains

What is the project about?Define the goal of this projectIs it similar to projects in the past or is it a new effort?Define the scope of this projectIs it an independent project or is it related to other projects?

* Note that this slide is not necessary for weekly status meetings

2Current StatusFour years after the service startedPassenger numbers are 10m per annumOverall Customer satisfaction is 95% compared to a UK average of 83%Punctuality over the last year averaged 92.6% ppm compared to a UK average of 90.1%So the service attributes perform above UK average

* If any of these issues caused a schedule delay or need to be discussed further, include details in next slide.

3Passenger Growth: Southeastern 2008 - 2013

Southeastern passenger journeys have grown from 140m pa to almost 180m pa despite the recession* If any of these issues caused a schedule delay or need to be discussed further, include details in next slide.

4Passenger Growth: Southeastern Highspeed 2008 - 2013

Rapid passenger growth in 2010 of 7m has been followed by a period of steady growth to 10m by 2013* If any of these issues caused a schedule delay or need to be discussed further, include details in next slide.

5Passenger Growth: Southeastern Mainline and Highspeed 2007 - 2013

Mainline passenger numbers were falling due to the recession: Highspeed reversed this and has pushed total Kent rail passengers to their highest ever levels of 60m pa* If any of these issues caused a schedule delay or need to be discussed further, include details in next slide.

6Transport is really important to the Kent economyKents economy is driven by its proximity to London and as a gateway to Europe

* If any of these issues caused a schedule delay or need to be discussed further, include details in next slide.

7Historically, Kents economy has underperformed the UK as a wholeGVA per capita has grown over the past 15 years but there is still a persistent gap between local and national output GVA per capita (), 2011Kent has a growing economy. However, historically, GVA has been below the national average. This partly reflects the importance of London to the local economy significant levels of out-commuting depress the GVA figure even though household incomes are relatively high. But Kents GVA is significantly below that of the wider South East region, which is also dependent on London.

The county-wide average also masks considerable local divergence, with economies in coastal East Kent and parts of the Thames Gateway performing significantly worse than more affluent areas in the west of the county. 8But an economic transformation is underwayManaging industrial change is a long term project but the legacy of brownfield land is opening up the South Easts biggest new development opportunities

Chatham Maritime in 1986 and 2013Partly, this is associated with Kents industrial legacy. In particular, a high presence in heavy industries in parts of North and East Kent (quarrying, building materials, heavy engineering) and low value domestic tourism on the East Kent Coast have left a legacy of redundant land and skills challenges in parts of the county. These challenges are persistent and take many years to overcome.

However, the countys economy is being transformed. With limited capacity elsewhere in the South East, Kent offers the South of Englands biggest development opportunities, especially in the Thames Gateway and at Ashford. 9Better connections to London help to drive stronger economic performanceHistorically, counties to the west of London have been better connected reflected in stronger economic outcomes

GVA per capita (), 2011Better connectivity is part of Kents strategy for economic transformation. We know that better connected counties to the west and north of London enjoy better economic outcomes. This is also due to long term industrial structure factors. But the presence of substantial land for development and relatively low GVA/ cap suggests that there is significant economic potential in the county which remains untapped. Until recently, poor connectivity and lengthy rail journeys in particular reinforced underperformance1011

East Kent Coast33,000 homes by 2026Thames Gateway50,000 homes by 2026DRAFT v.2.5Ashford22,700 homes by 2026The strategy: Linking places with growth potentialSo the countys long term strategy is to increase investment and growth in the Thames Gateway Europes largest regeneration initiative, stretching into London and Essex, with the greatest potential for new jobs and housing of any of the radial corridors out of London; Ashford, focused on the long-term expansion of the town; and Coastal East Kent, which historically has suffered from peripherality, poor connectivity and a low-value economic base but which has great potential to build on its quality of life, major investment in cultural infrastructure and new opportunities such as Discovery Park Enterprise Zone.

HS1 is at the centre of this strategy, opening up Kents areas of greatest growth potential. 11Highspeed Stations in Kent

Ebbsfleet17 million square feet of floorspace 1,035 acres of land equivalent to three Hyde Parks40% open space and parkland. Up to 10,000 homes. Up to 20,000 jobs. Only Springhead Park has been developed to date4 to 6 trains per hour 17 minutes to St Pancras compared to 42 minutes previously

* If any of these issues caused a schedule delay or need to be discussed further, include details in next slide.

13EbbsfleetWhilst the expected housing, office and retail development has not progressed the station is a fundamental reason behind the proposed paramaount theme park proposal827 acres 27,000 jobs boost to local education and training

A Paramount Theme Park development of 2bn is proposed close to the station site * If any of these issues caused a schedule delay or need to be discussed further, include details in next slide.

14Ashford

Ashford has a vision to create a vibrant, sustainable town for residents and businesses, with an ambitious 2.5 billion development strategy which will see the town benefit from28,000 new jobs And 31,000 new homes.

Capitalising on High Speed Rail* If any of these issues caused a schedule delay or need to be discussed further, include details in next slide.

15Ashford

The station building was rebuilt for 2.5m, the next phase was to create the station plazza for a further 2.5m.

The scheme did not progress following a change in Leadership at the District Council combined with the abolition of SEEDA and the HCA. * If any of these issues caused a schedule delay or need to be discussed further, include details in next slide.

16Ashford

But Passenger numbers have continued to grow , housing and population growth has continued and out of town business parks continue to fill, but the rents have remained static at around 200/m2

* If any of these issues caused a schedule delay or need to be discussed further, include details in next slide.

17Economic BenefitsEarly studies forecast gains for locations on the HS1 route

Colin Buchanan/ Volterra, 2009Hard economic benefits are difficult to quantify as yet. Early studies projected house price gains as a result of HS118Economic Benefits Too early to say High levels of use Important in changing perceptions of Kent as an investment locationBut no visible correlation yet with resident earnings at district level Part of a long term strategy, not a short term growth measure

However, change is long term. So far, there is no correlation with earnings growth although high use of HS1 would imply an increase in commuting to London for higher-value jobs. We need to do more analysis of house price rises at local (rather than district/ county) level.

But HS1 is important in changing perceptions of Kent as an investment location and locally, we have linked better connectivity with access to investment incentives (Government-backed loans to business) and strengthened place marketing. With a return to economic growth, the prospects for the development of places such as Ebbsfleet Valley will also become more promising, with the significant sunk investment in better rail infrastructure unlocking longer term investment.

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