246 IAER: AUGUST 2004~ VOL. l0 s NO. 3

Financia l S t r u c t u r e and G r o w t h in the Car ibbean : An Empir ica l Analysis

ANNE J, BYNOE AND MARYANN J. FOGARTY DI LIBERTO Pace University and Bloomfield College--U.S.A.

Some theories and empirical evidence suggest a positive impact from the development of the financial structure on economic growth of developing economies. Other studies demon- strate that economic growth encourages the development of the financial sector. This paper empirically examines the direction of causality in the post-independence period of three Caribbean countries: Trinidad and Tobago, Barbados, and Guyana. The paths of economic growth in the three countries have been varied. Economic growth in Trinidad and Tobago has been related to the production and processing of petroleum and natural gas. Barbados has changed from an agricultural country to a diversified economy producing manufactured goods and service exports. Guyana is a transition economy moving from an economically unsuccessful experiment with socialism in the late 1970s and 1980s to an Economic Recovery Program in 1988 with reforms and privatization, which generated strong growth and devel- opment in mining and agriculture. The study uses co-integration techniques to estimate a simple econometric model that relies on the growth-investment relationship. The Granger causality tests indicate that economic growth has expanded the development of the financial structure of Barbados, Guyana, and Trinidad and Tobago. However, there is evidence that monetary policy contributes positively to real economic growth. (JEL O16, 054)

The I m p a c t of U n i t e d Na t ions Economic Sanct ions on Iraqi Civil ians

NEIL TERRY AND AMJAD ABDULLAT West Texas A ~M University--U.S.A.

When the United Nations Security Council first imposed economic sanctions on Iraq in 1990, many diplomats, scholars, and citizens believed that comprehensive economic sanctions were innovative and offered an ethical foreign policy tool to combat threats to peace and security without causing unintended suffering. This research examines trends in under-five mortality rates for 20 countries in the Middle East and Northern Africa. A nonparametric test for trend is used for the years 1960-2001. The results indicate that Iraq is the only country in the region to not achieve a statistically significant downward trend in the under-five mortality rate. Comprehensive economic sanctions in Iraq hurt a large number of children, not only by limiting the availability of food and medicines, but also by disrupting the whole economy, impoverishing Iraqi citizens, depriving them of essential income, and reducing the national capacity of water treatment, electrical systems, and other infrastructure critical for health and life. The government of Iraq also bears a heavy burden of responsibility. The results provide evidence supporting the growing literature that economic sanctions undermine the economic infrastructure in a fashion that harms the civilian population much more than the ruling regime. (JEL O19)