the impacts of western restrictive measures on russia's ... · russia’s liquids production...
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The impacts of Western restrictive measures on Russia's oil and gas sectors
Centre Energie - Centre for Energy
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Marc-Antoine Eyl-Mazzega
Director, Centre for Energy
Eni - Brussels, 18/04/2018
Russia’s economy was already in recession before the sanctions, came out of recession in spite of the sanctions
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Russia’s GDP and the oil price, 2002-Q1 2018
Source: Rosstat, Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation
Russia’s liquids production breaks all records, further growth only limited by OPEC+ in 2017 and 2018
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Russia’s GDP and the oil price, 2002-Q1 2018
Source: Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation, Rosneft, Sberbank Investment Research, Ifri
Rosneft’s liquids output, 2014-2017 (including Bashneft in 2017)
10,6
10,8
11
11,2
11,4
11,6
11,8
Russia's 2014total liquids
output
Russia's 2015total liquids
output
Russia 2016total liquids
output
Russia'sOctober 2016
liquidsproduction cut
basis
Russia's 2017total liquidsoutput level
with 12months OPECcut and 85%
full compliance
Russia's 2017Etotal liquids
output level ifno OPEC cut
mb/d
Russia’s gas exports to Europe at record high levels, Gazprom developing Nord Stream 2, Turkish Stream, Power of Siberia
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Gazprom’s exports to Europe and EU’s LNG imports, 2007-2017
Source: Gazprom, Platts
Yamal LNG : extreme environment yet on schedule, no cost overruns…
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Russia’s GDP and the oil price, 2002-Q1 2018
Source: Total
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Russia’s oil majors raising capex against all odds
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Evolution of capex of Russian majors versus some IOCs, 2014-2017
Source: Shell, ExxonMobil, Rosneft, Gazprom, Lukoil, Sberbank Investment Research; *
Rosneft includes Bashneft as from 2017
Increasing production drilling, growing share of horizontal drilling > 34% in 2017
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Evolution of production drilling by leading Russian oil producers, 2013-2016
Source: Company data, Deloitte
Ruble depreciation > fall in $ oil prices, leading to a positive impact on revenues and capex as companies export
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Evolution of RR and $ Ural prices, Q1 2014-Q1 2018
Source: Thomson Reuters, Rosneft
Russia’s oil production benefiting from tax advantages as new greenfields and NGLs expand output
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Evolution of Russia’s fiscal reserve funds, Dec.2014-Feb-2018
Source: Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation, Vedomosti, Vygon Consulting
Variation of the fiscal pressure on Russia’s oil sector
Russia’s fiscal reserves were a buffer for falling oil and gas incomes, but the Reserve fund is depleted
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Evolution of Russia’s fiscal reserve funds, Dec.2014-Feb-2018
Source: Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation
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