THE IMPENDING MECHANIC SHORTAGE AND POSSIBLE AIRLINERESPONSES

by

Keith Harold Norton

The Airline Research Paper (ARP)Submitted to Worldwide Online Campus

in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements ofASCI 620

Embry-Riddle Aeronautical UniversityWorldwide Online

May 2009

ABSTRACT

Researcher: Keith Harold Norton

Title: The Impending Mechanic Shortage and Possible

Airline Responses

Institution: Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University

Degree: Master of Aeronautical Science

Year: 2009

Today’s airlines face many challenges. One issue is the

looming shortage of airframe and powerplant (A&P) mechanics.

To understand the problem requires examining how mechanics

are certificated, the supply of qualified mechanics, and

industry demand for mechanics. Mechanics may earn their A&P

certificate by either completing an FAA approved training

program or by working under the supervision of a

certificated mechanic. The number of active A&P mechanics

is decreasing due to retirements, low wages, a perceived

lack of prestige, and new career options. Demand for A&P

mechanics has varied based on airline health, outsourcing,

and competition from business jet operators. Increased

salaries, apprenticeship programs, and airline based ab

initio training programs could all increase the number of

A&P mechanics.

ii

1

Introduction

Today’s airlines face many challenges. One issue that

receives little popular press is the looming shortage of

certificated airframe and powerplant (A&P) mechanics

(Michaels & Pasztor, 2008). Yet, this problem will impact

future airline operations and their cost of conducting those

operations.

To understand the problem we need to examine how

mechanics are licensed, the issues affecting the supply of

qualified mechanics, and the issues affecting industry

demand for mechanics. These factors can then be evaluated

for potential solutions.

Sources of Trained Mechanics

Earning a mechanic certificate and associated ratings

requires the candidate meet the knowledge, experience, and

skill requirements specified in 14 CFR 65 Subpart D. These

regulations provide two ways to meet the requirements,

training and experience (Certification: Airmen Other Than

Flight Crewmembers, 2009).

Schools that are certificated under 14 CFR 147 may

conduct aviation maintenance training (Aviation Maintenance

Technician Schools, 2007). Schools may be private or public

institutions and most programs take approximately two years

2

to complete. Airlines have traditionally shown a preference

for graduates of Part 147 schools.

These schools must meet strict regulatory requirements

on their facilities, equipment, tools, instructors, and

general curriculum (Aviation Maintenance Technician Schools,

2007). It is expensive to meet these requirements, which is

one reason that over 37 A&P schools have closed in the past

18 months (O’Brien, 2009).

An alternative to training at a school is to work as an

apprentice under an experienced mechanic. In order to meet

the experience requirements for the Mechanic license with

Airframe and Powerplant ratings, the apprentice must show

documentary evidence, acceptable to the FAA, of 30 months of

supervised experience (Certification: Airmen Other Than

Flight Crewmembers, 2009).

Military aircraft mechanics do not fit neatly into the

FAA certification scheme. Military training programs are

narrowly focused on specific aircraft and often a specific

system or systems on that aircraft. This specialization is

the opposite of the broad, general, FAA requirements. For

this reason, most military aircraft mechanics must complete

additional training, typically in a Part 147 program, to

complete all the requirements for the FAA Mechanic

certificate with A&P ratings. However, this additional

3

training slows the process of bringing military mechanics

into the commercial aviation marketplace.

Issues Affecting the Supply of A&P Mechanics

Between 2005 and 2007, the number of active, FAA

certified A&P mechanics has dropped by 1,500 mechanics

(O’Brien, 2009). There are numerous reasons for this

decrease. First, many experienced mechanics began their

career upon return from the Vietnam War. These mechanics

are now retiring in large numbers and they have not been

replaced by equal numbers of new mechanics entering

commercial aviation from the military. The need for

additional training, beyond their military training, is

likely a contributing factor.

In recent years, technically astute students have had

new career opportunities that generally pay better, are more

stable, and receive more respect. Many of the best new

mechanics prefer to pursue a career as an automotive ASE

certified mechanic because of its relatively high pay and

increased respect when compared to aviation mechanics.

Other technical students choose to pursue information

technology or health care careers rather than aviation

maintenance for similar reasons and for the better working

conditions (Napert, 2007). All of these career choices are

4

free from the ever-present FAA regulation and oversight

(Lynch, 2008, October; O’Brien, 2009).

Operating a Part 147 school is very expensive.

Facilities, instructors, tools, aircraft, manuals,

insurance, and environmental compliance require large

amounts of money to establish and maintain FAA

certification. This has resulted in very few new schools

opening and many more closing their doors. Increasingly,

aviation maintenance programs are part of large, established

colleges and universities. Many receive state financial

support (O’Brien, 2009; Phillips, 2009).

A cooperative partnership in Delaware is working to

alleviate the shortage of certificated mechanics in that

state by opening a new Part 147 training program. The State

of Delaware, the Sussex County Council, PATS Aircraft, and

Delaware Technical & Community College (DTCC) have worked

together to establish the program. PATS Aircraft’s pressing

need for more mechanics, to supplement their current 600

mechanics and engineers, was the driving force behind the

project. Through this joint effort, local and state

governments have improved the employment base, a local

company has obtained skilled workers, and a local community

college has increased enrollment (Philips, 2007). It took

two years to establish DTCC’s Aviation Maintenance Education

5

Center and an airframe training program. It will take at

least another year before the powerplant portion of the

school is certificated (Philips, 2009). The presence of

strong local demand for skilled mechanics is the best way to

ensure the future of both the skilled American workers and

excellent training organizations.

A similar situation exists in Marquette, Michigan.

When Sawyer Air Force Base was closed in 1995, Michigan’s

Upper Peninsula lost its largest employer. The Air Force

gave the former strategic bomber base to Marquette County,

which subsequently established it as Sawyer International

Airport. The airport and its immediate surroundings were

made a Michigan Renaissance Zone, which provides substantial

tax incentives for businesses. With these developments,

American Eagle Airlines established Marquette as one of its

two major maintenance hubs in 1996. They employ

approximately 235 maintenance technicians. American Eagle’s

Aviation Maintenance Academy, which provides both initial

and recurrent training to all of the company’s maintenance

personnel, is also located at the Sawyer airport. The

presence of this strong, local employer has resulted in

strong demand for graduates of Northern Michigan

University’s Part 147 maintenance program (Cobb, 2007).

6

This is another example of employer demand driving the

success of a maintenance training program.

Issues Affecting Demand for A&P Mechanics

The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimates that the

demand for A&P mechanics will increase from 138,000 in 2006

to 152,000 in 2016 (see table 1). It is expected that the

strongest demand will continue to be for graduates of Part

147 training programs (Bureau of Labor Statistics, n.d.).

Table 1Employment Projections for Aircraft Mechanics

Occupation Title 2006 2016 Change %

Aircraft Mechanics 122,000 135,000 13,000 11

Avionics Technicians 16,000 17,000 1,300a 8

Total 138,000 152,000 14,000 10

Note. aMathematical error is from source data. From Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. (n.d.). Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2008-09 Edition, Aircraft and Avionics Equipment Mechanics and Service Technicians.

In recent years, many airlines have sought to

simultaneously reduce their costs and meet their maintenance

needs by outsourcing major maintenance (Marks, 2005).

Initially, this work was outsourced to domestic major repair

and overhaul (MRO) organizations. The pressure to reduce

7

costs has resulted in the move to use MRO organizations

based in emerging markets worldwide. China developed civil

air regulations that mirror their U.S. counterparts. This

has made obtaining Part 145 repair station certification in

China relatively simple. This combined with a workforce

that demands wages one tenth of American workers has

resulted in a booming MRO business in China (Anonymous,

2005).

Deregulation has resulted in the rapid expansion of the

number of flights being conducted and the number of aircraft

conducting those flights. This increase has resulted in

increased demand for A&P mechanics for line maintenance.

The rapid growth in the business jet market has

increased the demand for mechanics by corporate and

fractional ownership flight departments. These operators

need mechanics with turbine engine experience, competing

directly with the airlines for qualified staff (Lynch, 2008,

October).

The airline industry has faced numerous challenges in

recent years. The tragedy of 9/11, several major

bankruptcies, mergers, and the recent economic downturn have

all resulted in periodic reductions in overall airline

demand for A&P mechanics. History indicates that industry

downturns are followed by dramatic growth. If that pattern

8

recurs, there will be a significant A&P shortage, which

could limit growth and result in upward wage pressure. It

takes years to train new operational personnel and even

longer to implement new training programs. Unless both

individual airlines and the airline industry begin to focus

on this and other long-term problems, they will face

significant challenges when the economy improves (Moody,

2009).

Several of the newest aircraft require maintenance

technicians with significantly enhanced computer and

electronic skills. Airlines operating these new aircraft

will need to plan for significant training investment in

their mechanics.

The economic viability of outsourcing to foreign MROs

has been diminished by both increasing salary demands in

these markets and by a weakened U.S. dollar. The changing

value of the dollar in international markets has made the

use of domestic MROs more attractive (O’Brien, 2009).

Potential solutions

There is no single step that will solve the A&P

shortage. However, several organizations are taking steps

to improve the situation.

Prior to the recent economic down turn, salaries for

new A&P mechanics had started to rise noticeably. This

9

trend was seen most clearly among aircraft manufacturers and

business jet operators (McMillin, 2005). An increase in

income potential would be very helpful in recruiting a new

generation of mechanics.

Entry level A&P mechanics normally spend several years

working their way up through general aviation, charter

operations, and cargo airlines before they can meet major

airline experience requirements. However, JetBlue has

instituted an innovative program for new mechanics that

takes them through a nine-month mentoring program. Upon

completion of the program, these mechanics become line

mechanics for the airline (Muller, 2007).

The last major injection of mechanics with military

experience into the commercial airline market occurred at

the end of the Vietnam War. A similar, albeit smaller,

transition may occur as the United States eventually draws

down troop levels deployed in the Middle East and South

Asia. These mechanics will still require additional

training to transition into FAA certified positions. This

will likely have a positive affect on Part 147 schools. It

also presents an opportunity for commercial operators to

develop innovative programs to help these mechanics

transition into commercial aviation. Airlines could develop

mentoring programs, similar to JetBlue’s, which would

10

combine the military mechanic’s service experience with on-

the-job experience at the airline to meet FAA certification

requirements.

Several airlines offer ab initio training for pilots.

These programs take potential pilots, with no aviation

experience, and train them from their initial ratings

through to their initial assignment as co-pilots with the

airline. The advantage of these programs is the ability to

train the future employee to professional standards that are

geared towards the airline’s operations. Similar programs

could be developed for maintenance technicians. This would

allow the airline to train the personnel they want to

standards that are higher than the FAA’s and which are

tailored to their equipment. It would also be attractive to

new students because they would know that successful

completion of the program would lead to a coveted job at an

airline.

Both industry organizations and the FAA have examined

ways to provide expanded career opportunities to aviation

maintenance personnel. Changing FAA regulations to include

higher levels of ratings have not made it past the

discussion stage. The maintenance industry, together with

unions and maintenance organizations, has made significant

progress towards industry certifications for maintenance

11

personnel. These certifications validate and document

training and expertise in specific areas, such as avionics.

Similar certification programs in other industries, such as

information technology, have had significant effects on both

prestige and salary levels. Similar results for aviation

maintenance technicians would be very helpful in recruiting

and retaining the best mechanics (Lynch, 2008, October).

Providing more stability to aviation employees would

also help in recruiting and retention. Governmental steps

to level the playing field for domestic MROs are being

considered by both Congress and the President. These steps

would ensure that maintenance done on domestic aircraft was

performed to equivalent standards and that employment,

environmental, and other standards were the same for foreign

MROs as for their domestic competitors. These proposals

have met great resistance from foreign governments and the

airlines (Lynch, 2008, December).

Conclusion

Ultimately, domestic airlines need a domestic workforce

to perform line maintenance on their aircraft. Outsourcing

major maintenance to foreign countries only makes sense when

the dollar is strong and when foreign countries can provide

cheap labor. The development of the domestic aviation

maintenance workforce and its associated industry are assets

12

that domestic airlines should be more active in promoting.

Their viability depends on it. By implementing creative

training programs within the airlines, management can take

direct control of their workforce. By participating in

efforts to enhance the professionalism of the maintenance

career path, airlines can improve the quality of their

operations and help to ensure that a new generation of

workers will desire to make the commitment to obtain the

training needed to work in the aviation industry.

13

REFERENCES

Anonymous. (2005, December). Industry insights: The last

aircraft mechanic. Aviation Maintenance, 24(12).

Retrieved April 4, 2009, from ProQuest

Central database. (Document ID: 1552988111).

Aviation Maintenance Technician Schools, 14 C.F.R. § 147

(2007).

Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.

(n.d.). Occupational Outlook Handbook, 2008-09

Edition, Aircraft and Avionics Equipment Mechanics and

Service Technicians. Retrieved May 9, 2009, from

http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos179.htm

Certification: Airmen Other Than Flight Crewmembers, 14

C.F.R. § 65, Subpart D – Mechanics.

Cobb, K. (2007, January). When chicken little is wrong.

fedgazette. Retrieved April 5, 2009, from

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/pub_d

isplay.cfm?id=1272

Lynch, K. (2008, December). A time of transition. Overhaul

& Maintenance.

Lynch, K. (2008, October). Project bootstrap. Overhaul &

Maintenance.

Marks, P. (2005, September 30). Airlines outsource

maintenance. Knight Ridder Tribune Business News,1.

14

Retrieved April 4, 2009, from ProQuest

Newsstand database. (Document ID: 904667571).

McMillin, M. (2005, August 25). Aircraft makers struggle to

find qualified mechanics. Knight Ridder Tribune

Business News,1. Retrieved April 4, 2009, from

ProQuest Newsstand database. (Document ID: 887504911).

Michaels, D. & Pasztor, A. (2008, May 9). Air safety is

looming concern. The Wall Street Journal Asia. p. 26.

Retrieved April 3, 2009, from ProQuest

Newsstand database. (Document ID: 1475591151).

Moody, E. (2009, Feb 1). Technical trouble. Overhaul &

Maintenance. P. 37.

Muller, M. (2007, October). Into the wild blue: JetBlue

charts new territory with apprentice mechanic program.

Aviation Maintenance, 26(10). Retrieved April 2, 2009,

from ProQuest Central database. (Document

ID: 1360469221).

Napert, G. (2007, August). Outsourcing. Aircraft

Maintenance Technology, 18(10), 54. Retrieved April 2,

2009, from ABI/INFORM Trade & Industry database.

(Document ID: 1327680431).

O'Brien, B. (2009, March). Hiring time. Aircraft

Maintenance Technology, 20(4), 36-39. Retrieved April

15

2, 2009, from ABI/INFORM Trade & Industry database.

(Document ID: 1666006141).

Philips, E. (Ed.). (2007, November 26). Delaware starts

mechanics school. Aviation Week & Space Technology. P.

19.

Philips, E. (Ed.). (2009, February 16). Delaware college to

open airframe mechanic school. Aviation Week & Space

Technology. P. 12.

16

APPENDIX A

OUTLINE

I. Abstract

II. Introduction

A. Overview of looming mechanic shortage

B. Key factors

III. Sources of Trained Mechanics

A. FAR Part 147 certificated schools

1. Highly regulated by FAA

2. Airlines prefer Part 147 graduates

3. Many more schools are closing than

opening

B. Apprenticeship

1. Work under the supervision of A&P

2. Thirty months of combined experience

3. Must document experience

C. Military

1. Military training is very specific

2. Less general than A&P requirements

3. Typically requires additional training

IV. Issues Affecting the Supply of FAA A&P Mechanics

A. Vietnam veterans retiring

1. Not enough new veterans to replace them

17

2. Additional training requirements

discourage veterans from transitioning to

commercial aviation.

B. New career options abound for technical students

1. Automotive maintenance

2. Information technology

3. Healthcare

4. All have better pay and working

conditions

C. Challenges to Part 147 schools

1. Expensive to operate

2. Highly regulated

3. Generally must be sponsored by public

college or university

4. Presence or lack of strong local demand

for graduates affects school viability

a. Delaware

b. Marquette, MI

V. Issues Affecting Demand for A&P Mechanics

A. Outsourcing

1. Domestic

2. Foreign

3. Decreased domestic demand for A&P

mechanics

18

B. Deregulation

1. Increase in number of routes and flights

2. Increase in number of aircraft

3. Increased demand for A&P mechanics

C. Growth of business jet market

1. Increase in corporate and fractional

operations

2. Increased demand for A&Ps with turbine

experience

D. Economic downturn

1. 9/11, bankruptcies, financial crisis

2. Temporary decrease in A&P demand

3. Historically followed by period of

growth

E. Increasingly sophisticated aircraft require A&P

mechanics with advanced skills

F. Changes in the value of the dollar have diminished

the savings of foreign outsourcing

VI. Potential Solutions

A. No “silver bullet”

B. Higher pay is the strongest incentive

C. Fast track airline mentoring programs

D. Improve military transition programs

E. Develop ab initio training programs

19

F. Develop advanced ratings to improve A&P career

path

G. Level the playing field for foreign and domestic

maintenance

VII. Conclusion

A. Domestic airlines need a strong domestic workforce

B. Airlines can make a significant difference in

encouraging and developing their maintenance

workforce