The importance and future of Reliability

in a complex and turbulent environment

ETE/GRASMECH’09 conferenceBSMEE - Bruxelles

A strategic vision

Harry Roossien

Contents

• Importance of reliability– Complex: Forces on organisation and reliability– Turbulent: Technical and economic perspectives

• Testphylosophies in perspective– Simulation, Robustness, Virtual– Acceleration en aggrevation

• Future of Reliability– Reliability Maturity Model

(Sr) Reliability Eng. Group leader Section Manager T&V Quality Officer System Eng. SE Verification Technology Pre-Development

Member Board Chairman

Reliability WG; HALT WG; WG Mech. test

Trainer

SonyEricsson

Platform for Environmental Testing

> 2002 (<1990 Consultancy, 1990-2002 Ericsson)

> 1995

< 1995, > 2006

From Risk to Reliability Training

Harry Roossien

TAB’s TENEEST TC-104

www.sonyericsson.com

www.plot.nl

ik.verniel.nl

1. Importance of Reliability

• Product Test-Technical• Economic

Quality and Reliability – terms and definitions

• Quality– much definitions/approaches– broad– perception

• Reliability– explicit study (models & literature)– quality for a given period of time– quantification (MTTF etc.)– margin

1. Transcedent2. Product oriented3. User oriented4. Production oriented5. Value oriented

1. Arrhenius, Hallberg & Peck2. Weibull, distributions 3. FMECA4. Failure rate/availability5. Standards (MIL, IEC etc.)

Q is the ability of the product to meet required performance under stated conditions … (R) for a specific period of time and to determine the margin to required performance

Test programmes

Basic Q/R program

Field complaint

Basic Q/R program

Extra test

Field return

Basic Q/R program

Extra test

Basic Q/R program

Extra test

Basic Q/R program

Extra test

Extra test

Field INFO

Extra test

Extra test

Extra test

Extra test

• Fear - Risk averse • Many reasons for adding – even big programmes always to small• Need for speed and quality and cost reductions=> Back to basics

recall

Why testing

• Customer satisfaction

• Simulation real world use

• Determine weak spots

• Quality/Reliability assurance

• Costs

• Return rate

• Robustness

Check induced stress

SAFETY

SIMULATION

APPROVALS

KEEP WORK

Knowing product

Improve-ments

Process op-

timisation

Prevent surprises

INSECURE

PART OF DESIGN

It’s all about: - conformance- insight

Turbulence: “Porter’s forces on your organisation”

New Entrants

IndustryCompetition

SustituteProducts

Suppliers Customers

Threat of new entrants

Threat of substitue products

Bargaining power of buyers

Bargaining power of suppliers

“New” competition from South-East Asia and former Eastern block

Not only competition=complex of forces=

“Due to economical crisis more critical consumers”

Costs of Change

1 – 10 – 100 - 1000 rule

Costs/change

Possibilities/costs

Culture/attitudeContingency thinking

Quality costs (ref. Juran)

Quality level

Cost level

Inspection and Prevention Costs

100%

Fail costs

Total QualityCosts

Traditional

AB

Quality is a feature and addressed specifically.

Knowledge

Quality costs (ref. Schneidermann)

Quality level

Cost level

Inspection and Prevention Costs

100%

Fail costs

Total QualityCostsZero defects

Learning organisation

A B

Quality is working practice and integrated

throughout full company.

Understanding

Integral approach required to minimize costs.Part of daily practices, everyone, everywhere!

Organisational importance of Reliability1. Savings on Costs and Time

• Life Time Costs, efficiency and projectdelays

2. Brandname and consumer trust (loyalty)• first choice, second buy

3. Availability• reliability, repair, maintenance• contractual obligation

4. Differentiating (competitive advantage)• quality level and perception• value for money quantification and prove

5. Insight and understanding• Physics of Failure, Root Cause Analysis, Modelling prediction and control

Reliability is efficiency and competitive advantage- insight and understanding leading to pro-active approaches

- answer to forces and competitions (South-East Asia and former Eastern block)

- response to complex and turbulent environments

Summarized: importance of Reliability

Quality is free (Juran)

Reliability is the proof (…)

I’m a

Reliability Engineer

If you see me

running

try to catch up !

• Technical and economic

• Different from and additional to Quality

• Conformance or insight

• Emerging Competitive advantage

• Effective and efficient testing• faster• cheaper • better

2. Testphilosophies in perspective

• time & margin

Q is the ability of the product to meet required performance under stated conditions … (R) for a specific period of time and to determine the margin to required performance

Environmental Stress and Test Philosophies

UseUse

Env

iron

men

tal S

tres

s

Timedy mth yrswk

low

med.

high

veryhigh

Simulation testingSimulation testing

Robustness testingRobustness testing

Reliable simulationHigh temperatureLow temperatureDamp heat steady stateDamp heat cyclicThermal shocksSine vibrationRandom vibrationBump & shockLife tests (bending, switching etc.)Click ratioDust testPerspiration testDrop test etc.

Margins/time reductionStress crackingReliability stress screenDamage boundary85/85 testHT drop/LT dropStep stress free fallHigh temp. vibration

Time reduction6 axes omnidirectional vibr.Extreme thermal cyclingPower cyclingDamage boundaryCombined testing

SIM

ROSEMEOST

HALT

Aggrevated

Accelerated

time

Reliability Roadmap (II)

SingleSimulation

SimulationPrograms

CombinedTesting

SingleRobustness

Robustness Programs

HALT

HASS

production testing

Simulation Robustness Acceleration

?

Virtual??

ROSE

ESS

Q$

tR

p

PoF

Base: PLOT members / CEEES / supplier base

HASS, HAST

Testfilosophy

Mmtfocus

MEOST

“Demolition curve”

HASA

?

• Failure HotelTest only on the known failure mechanisms. Reliability database

• Life Cycle AnalysisBase the test(criteria) on the real world conditions the product will face. Eventually with a safety margin.

• Fix allNo base quality levels, but intention to fix all failures.Trade off and impact analysis per observed failure.

• Virtual testing / Zero verification Based on simulation and modelling confidence on end quality

• Quality Supply Chain and appropriate Quality LevelsBase the end result on the sum of all part verifications. Determine the quality erosion and related that to end user quality expectations in time.

• Tailored testingDefine the tests based on (personal) experiences, feelings and analysis and decide which approach is most effective. This based on end user quality expectations.

Simulation

Developments• p/f levels• single test system thinking• simulation robustness• test customer• standards tailored

• UNDERSTANDING– more info

– margins

• Note: OK for compliance testing

Not for the future

Margins and ROSE CONCEPT

TESTS

REQ: BASE (QUALITY LEVEL)

LEV

ELS

PASS

FAIL

MO

NIT

OR

ING

RELIABILITY GROWTH

• Robustness Specification for Environmental Testing• Method to determine and quantify product robustness

REVISION

What is ROSEThe levels correspond to accumulation of failures which disclose the factthat the technological limit is reached (= state of the art = excellence)

Summary ROSE• more insight in product quality and robustness (understanding)• quantification of product quality & comparisons (progress/competitors)• time reduction: faster testing and “better” results• cost reduction: prevent overkill• mmt summary: one page overview

• Acknowledged by CEEES for technology• Pre-decessor of HALT

No HALT/HASS• ROSE is in between

• standard equipment• margins

• HALT/HASS is other tests• 6 axis omnidirectional vibration• forced temperature changes• power cycling• incl. combined stresses

Robustness

Example• BT audio streaming headset (with display and cord/cables)

Hippix ES series W604

EXAMPLEValues are edited for reference and education

Bluetooth Audio Streaming Headset

ROSE GRAPH W04

Hippix TP series W609

EXAMPLEValues are edited for reference and education

Bluetooth Audio Streaming Headset

ROSE GRAPH W09

Hippix RTL series W628

EXAMPLEValues are edited for reference and education

Bluetooth Audio Streaming Headset

ROSE GRAPH W28

Robustness Growth

130%

88%

114%

136%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

Target ES W604 TP W609 PP W628 TTC Wxx

HIPPIX ROBUSTNESS PROGRESSReliability Level per Revision (RLR)

HALT testing

• Highly Accelerated Life Testing (design – engineering)• Highly Accelerated Stress Screen (production)

• 6 axis omnidirectional vibration• combined with rapid temperature change• combined with on/off cycling

Comparison test philosophies

Simulation testing ROSE/MEOST testing HALT testing

– longer testing,– pass/fail,– proven, – standards,– non-destructive– RCA when necessary– existing tests– Sinle stress– good simulation– field experiences– 3 weeks

– fast testing, – levels, – “new”– based on standards– destructive (TTF)– RCA always necessary– existing tests– single stress

– 1 week

– fast testing, – levels, – “new”– no standards– destructive (TTF)– RCA always necessary– new test– combined stress

– 1 day *

* except preparations

3. Toekomst van Reliability

A paperless office has about as much chance as a paperless bathroom (anonymous)

• Benchmark industy development

• Reliability Maturity

time

1. Reliability Roadmap

SingleSimulation

SimulationPrograms

CombinedTesting

SingleRobustness

Robustness Programs

HALT

HASS

production testing

Simulation Robustness Acceleration

?

Virtual??

ROSE

ESS

Q$

tR

p

PoF?

Base: PLOT members / CEEES / supplier base

HVS, HASS, HASTTestfilosophy

Mmtfocus

MEOST

Utmost dynamic environments

RAFTING ORGANISATIONS

• flat structure – minimum mmt layers• structure organised around core*• 3 to 5 core processess• outsourcing of non-core processes• multifunctional and multi employable teams• simple directive structure with clear

tasks, responsibilities and targets• orderly, manoeuvrable (flexible), sober unit,

but extremely good organised for task

* core processes, core activities, core competencies.

Sources: Van der Hart and Gelderman, Business Marketing, 2003Gelderman, Management competencies

RAFT TESTING

• speed – fast testing • tailored testing, based on life cycle • appropriate test methods• early testing or early analysis • immediate feedback• prediction (mixed models, calculations)

Analysis, Modelling or Test

VIRTUAL

FMECA

CALC

LCA

physics

…

P/F

Reliability Maturity Model

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TargetCompiterPartner

Match

Analyseren en testen= breed mogelijk inzicht= selektie test filosofie

VIRTUAL

FMECA

CALC

LCA

physics

…

P/F

What’s your point today … and tomorrow?

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Reliability Maturity Model

Reliability Maturity Model

• Insight current position– SWOT – focus areas, analysis or testing

• Benchmark your position– with suppliers/test houses– with competitors

• Strategy development– current and wanted position– vision (how to develop, which direction)

© www.reliability-test.nl

Importance of Reliabilityno longer voluntary – it’s a must!

The future• Industry need fast, controlled and low cost tools

– competitive advantage

• Predictions and control – and Life Cycle Analysis

• Role of Virtual Simulation and Modelling – combined with physical measurement and testing (replace?)– as design tool – interactive & intepretation -

• Tailored Testing– based on LCA and rapid test techniques

• Green environment– new failmodes and approaches

• Communication in the complex and turbulent environment– fragmentation, outsourcing, freelancing

Review and tips

1. Importance of reliability – adapt to contingency, total picture & forces

(follow tendencies) PLOT

2. Test phylosophies– start with levels testing already now

(insight, prevent underperformance AND overkill) ROSE - HALT

3. Reliability maturity– find your and partners position and help/use each other

(strategy) RMM

Thank you!

Let’s enjoy the future together

More information via:

www.bsmee.be

www.plot.nl

www.reliability-test.nl