6010 PHK 07-10-20041Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin

Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000

The India Energy and Greenhouse Gas Model: Model Overview and Results

Peter H. KobosStaff Economist, Sandia National Laboratories

Thomas E. DrennenSenior Economist, Sandia National Laboratories

Associate Professor of Economics, Hobart and William Smith Colleges

The 24th Annual North American Conference of the USAEE/IAEE July 8 – 10, 2004, Capital Hilton Hotel, Washington, D.C.

6010 PHK 07-10-20042

India’s Energy Challenges

• Expanding population

• Increasing demand for total primary energy

• The current and projected fuel supply mix maylead to:– Deteriorating local air quality– Increasing global carbon emissions

• Fuel imports may increase

6010 PHK 07-10-20043

Total Primary Energy Demand in India

0

5

10

15

20

25

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Qua

ds

BiomassHydroelectricityNuclearNatural GasOilCoal

Source: International Energy Agency, 2002.

6010 PHK 07-10-20044

Electricity Generation Mix in India

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Qua

ds

HydroelectricityNuclearNatural GasOilCoal

Source: International Energy Agency, 2002.

6010 PHK 07-10-20045

The India Energy and Greenhouse Gas Model

6010 PHK 07-10-20046

The India Energy andGreenhouse Gas Model

Energy Intensity

GDP

Fuel Source by Economic Sector

Demand for Primary Energy by

Economic Sector

Total Electricity Electricity Share

Electricity by Fuel Type

Carbon Emissions

Carbon Content

Total Demand for Primary

Energy

Population

Domestic Production

Domestic Fossil Fuel Production

Fuel Imports

Total Demand for Primary Energy by

Fuel

6010 PHK 07-10-20047

Model Input (1990 – 2020)

• GDP growth scenarios

• Energy consumption by fuel type – Coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, other

renewables, combustible renewables– Derived and user defined scenarios

• Electricity consumption share by fuel type– Coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, other

renewables– Derived and user defined scenarios

6010 PHK 07-10-20048

Model Outputs (1990 – 2020)

• Gross Domestic Product• Population• Energy consumption share by fuel type

– Coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, other renewables, combustible renewables

• Electricity consumption by fuel type– Coal, oil, natural gas, nuclear, hydroelectric, other

renewables

• Carbon emissions (total and per capita)• Implied fuel import requirements

6010 PHK 07-10-20049

Base Case Results: Primary Energy

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1990 2000 2010 2020

Qua

ds

CoalOilNatural GasNuclearHydroelectricityOther RenewablesBiomass

6010 PHK 07-10-200410

Base Case Results:Electricity by Fuel Type

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1990 2000 2010 2020

Qua

ds

CoalOilNatural GasNuclearHydroelectricityOther RenewablesBiomass

6010 PHK 07-10-200411

GDP Growth Scenarios: Primary Energy

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1990 2000 2010 2020

Qua

ds

Low Growth (3%)

Medium Growth(4.6%, Base Case)High Growth (7%)

6010 PHK 07-10-200412

Primary Energy: Biomass

• There is still a strong reliance on biomass in the residential sector (76% of residential energy demand in year 2000 was biomass).

• A biomass reduction scenario considers the gradual shift from this heavy reliance on biomass to electricity.– Biomass share decreases in the residential sector from

76% to 50% – Electricity share increases from 12% to 38%

6010 PHK 07-10-200413

Biomass Reduction Scenario, 2020

The substitution increased projected carbon emissions by 34 million metric tons carbon (MtC) (8%) in 2020.

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Coal

OilNatu

ral G

asNuc

lear

Hydro

Other R

enew

ables

Biomas

s

Qua

ds

Base Case

BiomassReductionScenario

6010 PHK 07-10-200414

Electricity

ElectricityDevelopment Scenarios

– Aggressive Nuclear Technology (ANT)

» Doubles 2020 nuclearcapacity, 6 to 12 GW

– Advanced CoalTechnology (ACT)

» Increases future coal plant efficiency by 5%

Electricity by fuel in 2000

Source: International Energy Agency, 2002.

Other <1%

Hydroelectric4%Nuclear

3%

Coal 85%

Oil 2%

Natural Gas 6%

Renewables

6010 PHK 07-10-200415

Nuclear and Coal Electricity Scenarios:Total Primary Energy Demand, 2020

Aggressive Nuclear Technology (ANT), Advanced Coal Technology (ACT)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Coal

OilNatu

ral G

as

Nuclea

r

Hydro

Other R

enew

ables

Qua

ds

Base Case

ANT

ACT

Carbon Emissions in 2020:Base Case (476.2 MtC), ANT (464.9 MtC), ACT (457.7 MtC)

6010 PHK 07-10-200416

Carbon Emissions

• India represents 5.6% and 6.8% of world carbon emissions in 2000 and 2020, respectively

• Limited fuel switching opportunities from coal to cleaner sources exist

6010 PHK 07-10-200417

Per Capita Carbon Emissions

• Per Capita carbon emissions in 2000 were 0.25 tC/person in India, 0.54 in China, and 5.67 in the U.S.

• Projected per capita emissions in 2020 are 0.33 tC/person in India, 1.17 in China, and 6.47 in the U.S.

6010 PHK 07-10-200418

Energy Imports will Likely Increase

• Oil– Imports in 2000 were 1.3 million barrels per day,

65% of the total oil demand – Imports by 2020 may reach 3.2 million barrels per

day, 88% of the total oil demand

• Natural Gas– India was self-sufficient in 2000– Imports by 2020 may reach 3.1 billion cubic feet

per day, 39% of the total natural gas demand.

6010 PHK 07-10-200419

Conclusions

• India’s primary energy demand is projected to increase from 19.9 to 30.0 Quads (50%), and carbon emissions 250.0 to 440.4 MtC (76%) between 2000 and 2020.

• Substitution from biomass to electricity would increase carbon emissions

• Large scale adoption of advanced nuclear or coal technologies will have only minimal impacts on reducing carbon emissions

6010 PHK 07-10-200420

Conclusions(continued)

• Carbon emissions are relatively low compared to industrialized countries and China

• Energy imports will likely increase for oil by 1.9 million barrels per day, and natural gas by 3.1 billion cubic feet per day

6010 PHK 07-10-200421Sandia is a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Corporation, a Lockheed Martin

Company, for the United States Department of Energy under Contract DE-AC04-94AL85000

The India Energy and Greenhouse Gas Model: Model Overview and Results

Peter H. KobosStaff Economist, Sandia National Laboratories

Thomas E. DrennenSenior Economist, Sandia National Laboratories

Associate Professor of Economics, Hobart and William Smith Colleges

The 24th Annual North American Conference of the USAEE/IAEE July 8 – 10, 2004, Capital Hilton Hotel, Washington, D.C.