the industry dashboard dec 2011 (report)
DESCRIPTION
The Industry Dashboard compares the Cum Y/Y trend in Building Plans Passed (BPP), Buildings Completed (BC) (all in m2), with Cum YTD Cement sales (in tonnes) and Local Building Lumber sales (in m3). These are all excellent indicators of building activity and the graphic presentation of the trends provide an easy comparison.TRANSCRIPT
BMI
Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc
Reg. No. 2002/105109/23
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Studium Ad Prosperandum
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Studium Ad Prosperandum
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BUILDING RESEARCHSTRATEGY CONSULTINGUNIT cc
Reg. No. 2002/105109/23
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Studium Ad Prosperandum
Voluntas in Conveniendum
BUILDING RESEARCH
STRATEGY CONSULTING
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THE INDUSTRY DASHBOARD: DECEMBER 2011: BPP AND BC (SEPTEMBER), CEMENT AND LUMBER SALES (OCTOBER).
Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) ended 2010 at -7,75% compared to 2009
Cumulative Y/Y January 2011 for Domestic Cement Sales recorded a decrease of -5,04% compared to 2010, followed by Cumulative Y/Y declines of -3,34% in February, -2,85% in March, -1,91% in April, -2,11% in May, +0,04% in June and +0,07% in July, + 0,69% in August, +2,08% in September, +2,95% in October and + 3,58% in November - thus a gradually improving trend.
The MAT Forecast for Domestic Cement Sales shows marginal growth of + 3,34% for 2011 vs 2010.
Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) ended 2010 at +7,20% compared to 2009.
Cumulative Y/Y January 2011 recorded a massive increase of 34,58% compared to 2010, followed by Cumulative Y/Y growths of 19,62% in February, 17,38% in March, 12,86% in April, 12,56% in May, 15,57% in June, 15,78% in July, + 14,61% in August, +17,48% in September, +15,67% in October and + 14,10% in November.
The MAT Forecast for Local Building Lumber Sales (in m3) shows strong growth of + 13,22% for 2011 vs 2010.
Total Building Plans Passed (m2) ended 2010 at -11,65% compared to 2009.
Cumulative Y/Y building plans passed (BPP) by larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD Oct 2011 decreased by -2,25% compared with Oct 2010.
• A decrease was reported for Additions and Alterations BPP (- 16,07%), whilst
• BPP for Residential Buildings increased by + 2,60%.
• The increase reported for non residential buildings BPP was + 11,19%. Longer term trends in the non-residential sector still reflect falling demand levels.
The MAT Forecast for Residential BPP (in m2) shows marginal growth of + 2,23%, Non Residential BPP shows growth of + 9,48%, Additions and Alterations BPP shows decline of – 13,69% and Total BPP shows decline of – 1,92% for 2011 vs 2010.
Total Buildings Completed (m2) ended 2010 at -27,87% compared to 2009. Cumulative Y/Y buildings reported as completed (BC) to larger municipalities (in m2) for YTD Oct 2011 decreased by – 7,92% compared with Oct 2010. • The largest percentage decrease in the value of buildings reported as completed (BC) was reported for Non residential BC (- 22,41%), whilst • Residential buildings recorded a decline (- 1,85%) and • Additions and Alterations decreased (- 5,12%). After these first 10 months results it is still our view that the decline in Residential Investment should decrease month on month from now on and in spite of the expected decline in Non Residential activity (about half that of Residential Building) will contribute to the positive growth in Total Investment in Building from the third quarter of 2011. The MAT Forecast for Residential BC shows marginal decline of – 1,51%, Non Residential BC shows DECLINE of – 19,56%, Additions and Alterations BC shows a DECLINE of -4,34% and Total BC shows DECLINE of – 6,62% for 2011 vs 2010. From the foregoing comparisons it can be seen that ALL the indicators indicate a turning point and MAT Forecasts indicating gradual growth (less negative). It still remains to be seen whether the gradual improvement in BPP and BC from the levels achieved in 2010 will be encouraged by the increasing willingness of the Banks to relax their stringent lending criteria so that Mortgage Advances can flow into the industry. At this stage it is mainly first time homebuyers in the middle income sector that are benefiting.
Dr.Llewellyn B Lewis, Principal Consultant, BMI Building Research Strategy Consulting Unit cc, Trwstllewellyn Cottage, 9 Adrienne Street, Strathavon, Sandton, PO Box 784133, Sandton 2146. [email protected] www.strategicforum.co.za Tel: (011) 884 2075 Cell 082 884 0063 Fax 086 6472 494
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Total Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) -13.68% -9.13% 3.09% -0.18% -7.48% -3.69% -5.13% -6.44% -3.19% -2.16% -1.94% -1.78%
Total Non Res BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) -27.22% -3.67% -10.82% -9.64% -13.66% -8.22% -17.75% -19.86% -18.45% -19.69% -18.06% -16.91%
Total BC Cum YTD % Change (m2) -17.93% -7.58% -1.42% -3.25% -9.44% -5.12% -9.29% -10.79% -8.08% -7.92% -7.16% -6.62%
Domestic Cement Sales (Tonnes) -5.04% -3.34% -2.85% -1.91% -2.11% 0.04% -0.02% 0.61% 2.08% 2.95% 3.58% 3.34%
Local Building Lumber Sales (m3) 34.58% 19.62% 17.38% 12.86% 12.56% 15.57% 15.78% 14.61% 17.48% 15.67% 14.10% 13.22%
Cumulative YTD Buildings Completed (BC) % Change by Sector Total: January - Sept 2011(Source: StatsSA; BMI-BRSCU Workings)
MAT FORECAST