the influence of a bypass road on urban …...faculty of architecture and town planning, technion,...

©Association for EuropeanTransport and contributors 2006

THE INFLUENCE OF A BYPASS ROAD ON URBAN DEVELOPMENT ANDSAFETY

Wafa EliasFaculty of Architecture and Town Planning, Technion, Haifa, 32000, Israel.

Shalom HakkertTransportation Research Institute, Technion City, Haifa 32000, Israel

Penina PlautFaculty of Architecture and Town Planning, Technion, Haifa, 32000, Israel.

Yoram ShiftanTransportation Research Institute, Technion City, Haifa 32000, Israel

1. INTRODUCTION

One of the principal reasons for the construction of bypass roads in towns isthe removal of through-traffic from the center of a town or city to the periphery,for the purpose of improving the flow of traffic, reducing travel times, andreducing road accidents. Bypass roads, however, have also environmentaland economic consequences. On the one hand, they reduce noise andpollution emissions along the previous route. On the other hand, such projectsare often accompanied by tremendous fears on the part of local proprietorsand businesses regarding the scope of their business revenues, the value oftheir properties, and the impact of the road on land uses.

The literature review shows that there is no one opinion pertaining to theeffect of bypass construction on cities, and that there are various effectsdepending upon many other factors such as the bypass's location, its distancefrom the town center, the level of socio - economic development, approvedland use plans, planning policy, town size and traffic volumes. This study isanother step toward better understanding the effects of bypass constructionon small cities.

This paper analyses the safety and accident impacts, as well as the economiceffects, of the construction of a bypass road using a case study in Israel, theopening of Regional Road 85, and the analysis of data regarding its effectsbetween 1945 and 2003. The town selected for this analysis is called Majd-Elcrum, a predominantly Arab town located in northern Israel. This town wasselected for two reasons. Firstly, during the period in question, Regional Road85, the main traffic artery in that area, which passes through the municipalboundaries of the town, was rerouted twice, in 1952 and 1996, with its positionchanged each time (Figure 1). Secondly, this village, being of intermediateproportions, is ideal for such research as impacts and changes are readilyascertained. These circumstances, along with the long time frame (about 60years), make it a unique subject for analysis in a before/after framework. Inaddition to the use of the standard "before/after" method we also implementedthe "event study" approach, derived from financial analysis to examine thereaction of investors to positive and negative news concerning land prices asinfluenced by bypass construction. The specific variables to be analyzed inthis paper are the incidence and severity of traffic accidents, changes in


property values over time, the spatial distribution of residential housing, thespatial distribution of business activities of various types, and changes in landuse.

The next section reviews the literature on the impact of bypass roads onsafety and accident issues as well as on economic development. The thirdsection presents the research methodology. The fourth sections describes thedata. The fifth section contains research results and analysis, and the finalsection presents the conclusions.

Figure 1: Areal Photograph of Magd Elcrum in 1999

2. LITARATURE REVIEW

The literature that deals with bypass roads, as well as the impact such roadshave on development of villages and cities is plentiful, although it does notprovide clear answers concerning the direction of this impact. Some of theresearch (Leong, 2002; Collins, 2000; Jesse, 1991; Buress, 1996; Harris,

1973) concludes that the bypasses influence residential communitiespositively, whereas other studies determine that the effects are negative, andin some cases even destructive (Steptone, 1986; John, 1994; Mackie, 1983).

A new bypass road improves accessibility to areas of activities, reduces trafficin urban centers and enables the development of new areas as well as theredevelopment of others. In contrast to the above, the construction of a

Internal road____

First bypass

Second bypass


bypass road is liable to bring about a decrease in industrial and commercialland use within the community, owing to the redirection of traffic and hencethe clientele base. The dispersion and expansion of businesses along thelength of the bypass roads effects an alteration in land use.

In most cases, the various researchers examined the impact of the bypassroad upon economic development along with changes in safety levels in thebypassed communities. This impact was generally measured in terms of thenumber of workers and businesses, as well as the amount of commerce,changes in wages (Glen, 2001; Jesse, 1991), the spatial distribution ofbusinesses, the enlargement of industrial and residential space, differences inpopulation size, travel behavior (Collins, 2000; Mackie, 1983) and changes inthe car accident rate (Rune, 2001; Newland, 1962). Generally speaking, thefocus is placed on commerce, services, business and roadside services.

There are many variables that determine the direction and the degree of thebypass road impact, such as the economic base of the community, thecommunity's geographical situation, the population's demographic features,the regional highway network, the distance from large urban areas and thecommunity's spatial situation relative to the bypass road (Johann, 1993;Banistrr, 1994; Poul, 1997; Gillis, 1994; Collins, 2000).

The distance of the bypass road from the city center creates a pocketbetween the old and new roads, where considerable pressure is exerted fordevelopment (Mackie, 1983; Jesse, 1991). Collins (2000); Jesse (1991) haveshown that a highway network has a significant, positive influence onbusinesses and wage-earners alike. In cases where the bypass roadinterfaces with both the bypassed communities and a highway network,greater accessibility is created to these communities and hence newbusinesses and wage-earners are drawn to them. The size of the bypassedcommunities greatly impacts the degree of development within; bypass roadshave considerably more impact on the strengthening and promotion ofbusinesses located in larger communities than they do in relatively smallerones.

Collins and Weisbord (2000), whose study included four cities, investigatedthe effect of bypass roads on medium-sized cities. The study results showedthat when the bypass roads were located outside the city limits, as inRichmond and Fort Wayne, there was a decrease in both population and laborforce, while in Danville, the bypass, which was located within the city limits,caused the city center to become stronger and the areas adjacent to thebypass road attracted new businesses. Bypass locations that create siteshaving easy accessibility to water, sewer, and electrical services will mostlikely be developed for industrial, commercial, and residential uses (Collinsand Weisbord, 2000).The planning policy of the local authorities can eitherencourage or limits industrial, commercial, and residential development(Mackie, 1983 ; Collins and Weisbord, 2000). Two studies (Steptone, 1986;Scott, 1998) showed that bypass construction impacts different segments ofthe population in various ways. For example, minorities and economicallydeprived groups tended not to benefit from such construction; in fact,


bypasses resulted in these groups failing to compete successfully with largebusinesses and established firms, as well as having to move to other areas.

With respect to the impact of a bypass on a specific type of business, it hasbeen established that businesses that do not deal with the provision ofroadside services, but rather with local consumption, do not suffer from thecreation of a bypass, and actually benefit from it, as a result of the transfer oftraffic from the community center which enables the local population to accessthe businesses more easily (Almaghawech, 1999; Collins and Weisbrod,2000; Gillis, 1994).

The following studies examined the impact of bypass roads on the number,types and spatial distribution of businesses: Johann, 1993; Mackie, 1983;John, 1994; Kipnis, 1976; Steptone, 1986; O'brien, 1983, and found thatbusinesses which were impacted negatively were those providing roadsideservices, as well as those located in the city center. Some of the above-mentioned businesses succeeded in being reestablished along the newbypass, along with various new ones, while others closed permanently.Moreover, bypass construction resulted in the creation of new shopping mallsat various highway interchanges, which in turn exerted a negative effect onurban businesses.

Various studies that have investigated the effect of bypass roads on roadaccidents (Newland, 1962; Andersson, 2001; Kipnis, 1976) showed that theconstruction of such roads caused a decrease in the number of roadaccidents with casualties. Elvik, Amundsen, and Hofset (2001) summarized,in a meta-analysis, the results of a number of studies from around the worldthat included 93 evaluations of the impact of bypass roads on the number ofroad accidents. On average, the decrease in the number of road accidentswith casualties was around 25%. A study that investigated the effect ofbypass roads on road accidents on 20 bypass projects in Norway (Elvik,Amundsen, and Hofset, 2001) showed that the construction of bypass roadsled to a decline of 19% in the number of reports of road accidents withcasualties. The effects were evaluated by a before-and-after study,controlling for general area-wide trends in the number of accidents. In Israel,Kipnis and Balasha (1976) investigated the effect of the construction of a roadthat bypassed the town of Ramla. They showed that this road significantlyinfluenced the level of safety for both vehicles and pedestrians. The studyresults pointed to a 50% drop in road accidents between vehicles withcasualties and a 30% drop in road accidents with casualties involvingpedestrians. The researchers explained that the smaller decrease in thepercentage of road accidents involving pedestrians was due to the fact thatmoving the traffic crossing the city's main road to the bypass road increasedthe attractiveness of that street, and increased the number of pedestriansalong it.

3. METHODOLOGY


This study analyses the impact of a new bypass road on the development of asmall town through a case-study of Majd-Elcrum. Various safety indices onthe bypass analyzed. In addition, the study deals with changes in land prices,spatial development of housing and commerce. A descriptive longitudinalanalysis approach is first used to investigate changes that occurred over timein relation to the construction of the first bypass road in 1952 and the secondbypass in 1996. The research period for this case study is 1945-2003.In the core of the analysis, we study the effect of the second bypass on landprices using eventstudy analysis (Campbell, 1997). This method, taken fromfinancial analysis to examine the reaction of investors to positive and negativenews, is adopted here to study the impact of the bypass construction on landprices (Lanoie, 1994). The methodology is based on the assumption that theland prices in Region C within the town are sufficiently stable in order toevaluate the impact of new events on expected future changes in the landprices in Region B (the areas between the two bypasses and along the oldroad). It involves the following steps: (a) identification of the events of interestand the definition of the event window (Lanoie, 1997); (b) prediction of"normal" land prices during the event window in the absence of the event; (c)estimation of the abnormal land prices within the event window, where theabnormal rate is defined as the difference between the actual and predictedrates; and (d) testing whether the abnormal rate is statistically different fromzero. Several methods may be used to estimate the abnormal return: thesingle-index model (constant mean return model), the market model and thecapital asset price model (CAPM), which are the most widely used in financialanalysis. In this study, the market model that assumes a linear relationshipbetween the return of any security to the return of the market portfolio wasemployed: between the land prices in Region C and the land prices in RegionB.

(1) itmtiiit eRR ++= βα

with 0)( =iteE and σ ε

2)(i

iteV =

where t is the time index, i is an index for the case under investigation. itR areland prices in Region B and mtR are land prices in Region C during period t ,and ite is the error term for Region B. iα , iβ , are the parameters of the marketmodelEquation (1) is estimated throughout two periods: 1980 to 1991, and 1980-1996.The event window periods are 1992-2003 and 1997-2003. With theestimates of iα and iβ from equation (1), one can predict a "normal" landprice during the years covered by the event window. The prediction error (thedifference between the actual land price and the predicted normal price),commonly referred to as the abnormal rate, or abnormal return (AR) infinancial analysis, is then calculated as

(2) mtiiitit RRAR βα ˆˆ −−=


Under the null hypothesis, the abnormal rate will be jointly normallydetermined with a zero conditional mean and conditional variance )(2 itARσ :

(3)

−++= 2

222 )(

11)(m

mmteit

RRL

ARt σ

σσ&&&

where L is the estimation period length (i.e. number of years used forestimation) and mR is the mean of the prices in Region A. With large L ,

22 )(teitAR σσ → .

For each individual event, one can estimate the abnormal rate andrelevant test statistics at each instant in time within the event window.However, in order to draw overall inference on the abnormal rateobservations for the event(s) of interest, one can also aggregate theabnormal rates. For any given subset of N events (or securities), thesampled aggregated abnormal rates ( tAAR ) at each instant twithin theevent window is computed as

(4) ∑=

=N

iitt AR

NAAR

1

1

For large L , the variance is

(5) ∑=

=N

iet tN

AARVAR1

22

1)( σ

To test for the significance of tAAR a Z (or t ) test can be derived.In order to test for the persistence of the impact of the event during aperiod )( 12 TT − , the abnormal rate can be added to obtain the cumulatedabnormal rates ))(( 2,1TTCARi for Regions B and C over the period )( 12 TT − :

(6) ∑=

=2

1

),(( 21

T

Ttiti ARTTCAR )

where ba TTtTT ≤<<≤ 21 ∈ event window, and aT and bT are the lower andupper limits of the event window, respectively. Asymptotically (asL increases) the variance of the cumulative abnormal rate for Regions Band C( security i) is

(7) ),( 212 TTiσ = 2

12 )1(ie

TT σ+−

To test the null hypothesis of zero cumulative abnormal rate, one canformulate a Z test as ),( 2TTCAR ii ~ N ( ),(,0 2

2 TTiiσ :


(8) 2/121

2 )),(( TTCARZ

iσ= ~ N (0,1)

4. DATA DESCRIPTION

Data on a variety of subjects were collected for the period 1945-2003,including road accidents, traffic volumes, land-use changes, land prices andspatial changes in housing and commerce.Road safety data included information on road accidents, their severity andtraffic volumes between 1966 and 2001 on the relevant section of Road 85.Accident data were compared over the period 1983 - 2001 to national data.Land use prices were taken from a surveyor's report ( Mussa Halaf , 2003 ) .Data regarding residential and commercial development were taken from avariety of source: aerial photographs, town planning permits and reports onillegal building, interviews with old residents and data from the localmunicipality on issued trade permits.

To study the changes in land-use patterns as related to the construction of thebypasses, the town was divided into four regions (Figure 2): Region A, alongthe historic town's main road (first regional road); Region B1, along the oldroad (Number 85, the first bypass, which was constructed in 1952) and B, thearea between the two bypasses; Region C, which includes the other areas inthe town; Region D on the south of the second bypass (the southernneighborhood). Regions C- east and C- west to include areas not included inthe town's master plan.

5. RESEARCH RESULTS AND ANALYSIS

This section discusses the results of the study, including road-accident ratesalong the two bypasses, the distribution of road accidents on the sectionbypassing Majd-Elcrum by severity of the crash as well as the spatial distributionof businesses and residences, and the findings concerning real estate prices.

5.1 The spatial distribution of businesses in Majd-Elcrum

In 1945 there were three grocery stores in the vicinity of the village spring. In1956, there were a total of seven shops in the proximity of the spring, as wellas a gas station located south of road 85 (the first bypass).In 1988 the numberof businesses reached approximately 70, 51% of which were situated alongthe original road, 8% of which were located along the first bypass and 41% ofwhich were established within the built-up community.

From 1988 to 2003 (Table 1), the percentage of businesses in Region Aremained fairly constant. As opposed to this, it is possible to discern a sharp


Figure 2: Division of the Village into Sub-Areas for the Purpose ofLand Price Inspections

Region C

Region C- east,west, B1

Region B

scale 1:10000

Border of outlineplan 3700/G

Internal road____

First bypass

Second bypass


rise in the percentage of businesses in Regions B in 2003 (that is, along Road85 and between the two bypasses). However, the percentage of businesseswithin the village itself in region C decreased considerably from 42% to 27%.The transfer of businesses from Region C to Region B may be documented inaccordance with the following results (Table 1):

Table 1: Distribution of the Businesses in Magd- Elcrum According toYear and Region

YearNumber ofbusinesses

RegionA

RegionB+B1

RegionC

1988 70 51% 8% 41%

1996 126 52% 6% 42%

2003 142 53% 20% 27%

Table 2: Number of Businesses According to Six Categories and theirSpatial Deployment in 2003, 1996, 1988

Percentage ofBusinesses

2003


1996


1988Type of

businessRegion

ARegionB+B1

RegionC

RegionA

RegionB+B1

RegionC

RegionA

RegionB+B1

RegionC

Roadservice 25 75 0 0 100 0 0 100 0Foodservice 67 5 28 51 0 49 63 0 49Buildingmaterialservices 0 57 43 50 25 25 33 25 25Industrialplants 19 39 42 28 10 62 37 10 62Localservices 82 5 13 68 0 32 64 0 32Professionalservices 56 11 33 62 0 38 50 0 38

The question is whether there is a connection between the type of businessand its spatial location. Table 2 shows us the types of businesses that were

situated in the area along the first bypass road and in the areas that werecreated between the two bypasses. Prior to 1996, 100% of all road services

were situated in Region B, whereas in 2003, only 75% were located in thisregion. As for food services, however, most of these businesses were situated

in Region A throughout the survey period. Prior to 2003, no food servicesexisted in Region B. Since the opening of the second bypass in 1996, the

percentage of food services in Region B has risen to 5%. It is noteworthy thatthese businesses tend to be regional rather than local, and cater to thru-traffic.

The most dramatic change of all took place in connection with the location ofindustrial plants and building material services. In 1988, few of these

businesses were in existence in Region B. However, in 1996, Region B


contained 10% of all industrial plants and 25% of all building material services,and in 2003, these percentages rose to 39% and 57% respectively.

In the sphere of professional services, 50% of all clinics and offices werelocated within Magd-Elkrum in 1988, whereas the other 50% were situatedalong the road within the village. In 1996, the percentage of professionalservices in Region A rose at the expense of Region C. However, in 2003, aslight decrease in percentage occurred in Region A and C to the benefit ofRegion B, which now contained 11% of these businesses.

The majority of businesses providing local services were established alongthe old road (in Region A). From 1988 to 2003 there was a rise in the numberof such businesses in Region A. In 1988, 64% of local services providingbusinesses were set up in Region A (Table 2). In 1996, 68% were organizedin Region A (Table 2), and in 2003, 82% were based in this region.Correspondingly, a sharp decrease in these types of enterprises occurredwithin the village (Region C), which, in 1988, contained only 36% of them.Furthermore, by 2003, this percentage diminished to 13%. In 2003, 5% of alllocal services providing businesses were situated in Region B.

Spatial distribution of residences5.2

By means of aerial photographs, one can discern that the village had originallydeveloped in a circular pattern, spreading out from a natural water source(spring); however, as a result of both the legal limitations placed uponconstruction in the south, due to an ordinance forbidding residentialconstruction on a 75 meter wide strip along the bypass, and the problematictopography northward, the village continued to develop lengthwise, parallel tothe bypass, and within the authorized linear space termed "The Blue Line" bythe Regional Planning Committee. From 1945 to 1996, the majority ofresidential development occurred northeast of the internal road, while most ofthe remaining construction took place in Region C. It can be said, insummarizing the first period, that nearly all residential construction occurred inRegions C within the village and in accordance with the approved masterplan.

Table 3: New Residential Building Distribution According to Regionsfrom 1995-2003

Year A B C C- east+C - west1995 17% 0 80% 3%1996 18% 0 77% 5%1997 8% 10% 81% 1%1998 14% 14% 58% 14%1999 6% 24% 51% 19%2000 9% 18% 49% 24%2001 9% 28% 41% 22%2002 11% 40% 37% 12%2003 18% 16% 55% 11%


From 1995 to 2002, a decline in construction occurred in these two areas. In1995, 80% of new construction took place at these locations, and thispercentage fell to 37% in 2002 (Table 3). With the construction of the secondbypass road, there was a clear impact on the direction of residentialconstruction. Prior to 1996, new construction had not been initiated in RegionB, whereas immediately subsequent to the paving of the second bypass roadin 1997, these areas contained 10% of construction initiatives. The rise in thepercentage of construction continued until 2002 and constituted 40% of allconstruction initiatives in the village; this increase affected a proportionaldecline in residential construction in Region C.

The construction of the second bypass road created a strip of land betweenitself and the first bypass road which was favorable to residential construction.The existing outline plan was certified in 1991, whereas the boundary lines ofthe plan were fixed in the early 1970's. This plan does not currently meet theneeds of the village residents housing. Moreover, many families nowadays donot possess land for residential units as per the approved plan, which isgenerating pressure to develop new areas suitable to the needs of theresidents. The percentage of construction in the areas on either side (westand east) of the village continued to rise until 2000, when it reached 24%.Thispercentage was higher than in Area B (18%). Subsequent to 2000, therebegan a decline in the percentage of construction in both the eastern andwestern areas, and such decline continued until 2003.

In contrast, a rise in residence construction occurred in Region B. From theseresults, one may deduce construction development between the two bypassroads caused a drop in the percentage of construction on both the easternand western flanks. This relates to the existing infrastructures in the areaslocated between the two bypasses, as well as to the fact that these areas arecloser to the village center than are those on the flanks. In 2003, there was adecline in construction in Region B, as well as on the eastern and westernflanks of the village. Concurrently, a rise in the percentage of residentialconstruction occurred in Region C, as well as in Region A. There is alikelihood that this is related to huge fines and demolition orders that residentsreceived subsequent to incidents involving illegal construction.

5.3 Findings Concerning Real Estate Prices from 1945-2003

It can be discerned from data that in 1945, real estate values in Regions B, C-east, C- west were considerably lower than those in Region C (areas withinborder of outline plan); Table 4 demonstrates that prices in Region C werefifteen times higher than those in the other regions.In 1950, real estate values rose in all three areas, with Regions C- east, C-west, B1 showing the most significant increase (58.5%), and increases of27.1% and 10% for Regions B and C respectively. Notwithstanding the rise inreal estate values in both Regions B and C-east, C- west, B1, the differencebetween their real estate values and those of Region C remained substantial.


Table 4: Land Prices in Magd Elcrum between 1945 -2003

year LandPrice inRegion

C

Percentage of Change in

Land Price in Region C

LandPrice inRegionsC-westC-east

B1

Percentage of Change in

Land Price in Regions

C-east,C-westB1

LandPrice inRegion

B

Percentage ofchange in

Land Price inRegion B

1945 6243 416 4161950 9799 10 1633 58.5 980 27.11955 8524 2.6- 1218 5.1- 609 7.6-1960 150560 15.3 2509 21.2 1506 29.41965 15232 0.2 7616 40.7 3808 30.61970 208702 254 89444 215 5963 11.31975 139982 6.6- 69991 4.3- 11998 20.21980 118299 3.1- 78866 2.5 9201 4.7-1985 397755 47.2 397755 80.9 99439 1961990 368746 1.4- 283651 5.7- 113640 2.81995 620815 13.7 620815 23.8 413877 52.82000 811969 6.1 811969 6.1 541212 6.12003 861300 2 861300 2 574200 3.7

Between 1945 and 1990, several fluctuations occurred in real estate prices inMajd Elcrum (Table 4). It would be extremely difficult to measure the preciseimpact of the first bypass road (1952) on these fluctuations, as there were ahost of other factors which could equally have influenced price oscillations.One such factor could have been the mass emigration of residents from thevillage in 1948, the year the State was officially established. Another possiblefactor could have been the governmental expropriation of as much as 75% ofthe land affiliated to the village. Yet another likely determinant could havebeen the socio-economic status of village residents. Additionally, naturalpopulation growth together with a rise in the standard of living, could haveaffected the supply of, and demand for, land. Finally, the authorization ofnational highway development plans along with outline plan, could very wellhave impacted real estate values.

Additional rises in real-estate prices occurred in all three regions from1990 to1995, the most significant of which being in Region B. Prices in this regionrose 52.8%. As previously indicated, the decision to construct the secondbypass, an enterprise which reached its final stages in 1995, took place duringthe period 1990-1995. The agricultural sections of Region B which hadformerly been worthless, were suddenly transformed into areas of vastdevelopment potential. From 1995 to 2003, real estate prices continued to risemoderately in all three regions. Prices in Region C were commensurate withthose in Region B, while real estate in Region C remained 150% moreexpensive than that in Region B.


5.4 Event StudyThe event study results showed that the second bypass construction affected

the real estate values of regions B in the two periods. The abnormal realestate values are statistically different from zero and Z values (table 5) were

statistically significant. The Kurtosis values are less than three, meaning thereis a normal distribution. This analysis showed a statistically significant

increase (at the 5% level of confidence) in the real estate values. The eventstudy result supports the results in the description longitudinal analysis thatshowed an increase trend in real estate values in Region B. The results for

the two time periods 1991 and 1996 are compatible with our postulate that theimpact of the bypass road construction upon real estate values could already

be sensed prior to actual construction and subsequent to the publicnotification of the intent to execute said construction. SCAR

Table 5: Event Window Results

year Event windowperiod

Mean Std Kurtosis

Z

1996 Event window1992-2003

4665.21 9242.05 0.7933 7.067

1991 Event window1997-2003

12459.42 11158.35 1.2988 10.049

5.5 Road-Accident Rate Along the Two Bypasses

Figure 2 shows that the road-accident rate per million km. of travel on thesection bypassing Majd-Elcrum is on a downward trend.

Figure 2: Road-Accident Rate Trends in Majd-Elcrum, 1985-2001

Road-Accident Rate Trends in Majd al Krum,1985-2004

00.51

1.52

2.53

3.54

4.55

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Rat

e of

Roa

d A

ccid

ent p

er

Mill

ion

KM


In the period between 1966 and 1980 (Table 1), the rate was approximately twoaccidents per million km of travel throughout the entire period. From 1981 to1985, there was a significant decrease in the road accident rate, decreasingfrom roughly 2 to 0.74. In order to explain this

Table 6: Rate of Road Accidents and Average Number of Accidents perMillion KM., in Five-Year Groups, in Majd-Elcrum

Year NationalRate

Accident RatePer Million KM

Avg. NoOf Accidents

Avg.DailyTrafficVolume

1966-1970 2.36 4 23161971-1975 1.94 6.6 46601976-1980 2.19 9.2 57461981-1985 0.42 0.74 4.75 88481986-1990 0.42 0.77 5 88461991-1995 0.42 0.60 7.2 163801997-2001 0.33 0.41 8.4 34900

decrease, we compared these results to those in a study by Hakkert (1987),who investigated and analyzed road accident trends in Israel on a number ofhighways, including Route 85. Hakkert found that the average road-accidentrate between 1970 and 1978 was 0.96 and, between 1979 and 1982 fell to0.39. Hakkert concluded that one of the factors that caused the decline in theaccident rate was the improvement of the inter-urban road infrastructure. Thisstudy supports the assumption that the cause of the significant decrease inroad accidents in Majd-Elcrum in the period from 1981-1985 was theimprovement of infrastructures. Road-accident rate per million kms of travel onthe section bypassing Majd-Elcrum and the national average rate of accidentson inter-urban road sections was also compared. From 1966 until 2001 the rateof road accidents per million km of travel in Majd-Elcrum on the section of thebypass road was higher than the national average (Table 1). However, if oneexamines the difference between the accident rate in Majd-Elcrum and thenational average rate, we see that there was a decline in the differencebetween them. From 1996 to 2001, there was a decrease in the accident rate;in 2000, the road- accident rate was 0.3; this period was after the constructionof the road section bypassing Majd-Elcrum, which was opened in mid-1996.

5.6 Distribution of Road Accidents on the Section Bypassing Majd-Elcrum,by Severity of the Accident

The data on the severity of the road accidents on the section of road bypassingMajd-Elcrum is presented in Table 7. The period investigated was divided intofive-year intervals.


Excepting the ten years from 1966-1976, it can be seen that the percentage ofserious road accidents throughout the entire period up to 1996 wasapproximately 50%. From 1997-2001, the percentage of serious accidents felloff to 24%, whereas in the preceding period, the recorded rate was 46%.These results show a substantial decrease in the severity of accidents in Majd-Elcrum following the construction of bypass road.

Table 7 : Distribution of Road Accidents in Majd-Elcrum, bySeverity, 1996-2001

Year

NationalLevelSerious(%)

NationalLevelLight (%)

SeriousandFatal (%)

Light(%)

Total NoofAccidents

1970-1966 25 75 201972-1976 40 60 451981-1977 50 50 341986-1982 36 64 52 48 211991-1987 32 68 54 46 281996-1992 26 74 46 54 442001-1997 20 80 24 76 42

A comparison of the percentage of serious and fatal accidents on the bypassroad section with the national average (Table 2) shows that the percentage ofserious and fatal road accidents in Majd-Elcrum was higher than the nationalaverage in all periods. However, an examination of the difference betweenthe national average and the percentage in Majd-Elcrum during the period1997-2001 shows a significant decrease in this difference: the rate for thisperiod was 4%, compared to 20% for the previous period (1992-1996).

6. CONCLUSION

A summary of the findings of this study reveals that the construction of thetwo bypass roads had significantly affected the town in all areas examined:the number and severity of accidents, land prices in different neighborhoodswithin the town, spatial distribution of residential housing and businessactivities, and land uses (including agriculture). Different sub-areas within thetown were affected by the bypass roads in different ways, and in some casesin contradictory directions (e.g. road accidents and land prices). This impliesthat the equity/distributional effects of the bypass road need to be taken intoconsideration, in addition to efficiency considerations. It appears that thedistributional effects are related to a number of factors, including the specificlocation of the road in relationship to the town space, its distance from thetown center, local zoning plans and rules, planning policy, the socio-economiccondition of the local residents, the traffic volumes and the local populationgrowth rate. Perhaps the most notable finding is that each of the two bypassroads strengthened the roads they bypassed by altering their status from amain road to local road, thus effecting the removal of restrictions on building


and development and hence converting them into central arteries on whichbusinesses and services could flourish.

REFERENCES

Almghawech, R. (1999) Predicting the economic impact of a proposedbypass: Berry, Milton and Ulladulla. Transport Engineering in Australia,8-13.

Andersson, P. K., Lund, B. L., Greibe, P. (2001). Omfartsveje. Densikkerhedsmessige effekt. Rapport 4, 2001. Danmarks TransportForskning, Lyngby.

Banister, D. (1994) Internalizing the Social Costs of Transport , Equityand Acceptability Question in Internalizing the Social Costs ofTransport , Chapter 6 .

Burress, D. (1996 ) Impacts of Highway Bypasses on Kanasas Towns,University of Kanasas for the Kanasas Dept. of Transportation.

Campbell, J., MacKinlay, C. (1997) The Econometrics of FinancialMarkets, Princeton University Press, Princeton, New Jersey.

Lanoie, P., Laplante, B. (1994) The market response to environmentalincidents in Canada: a theoretical and empirical analysis, SouthernEconomic Journal, 60, 657-72.

Collins, M., Weisbrod, G. (2000) Economic Impact of Freeway BypassRoutes in Medium Size Cities. Economic Development ResearchGroup, 1-16.

Elvic,R. and Vaa, T. (2004) The Hand Book of Safety Measures. Elsevier.pp.281-284.

Elvic, R., Amundsen, F.H. ( 2001) Road Safety Effects of Bypasses ,TRB 2001/PDF and TXT Folders / 0500/ Paper 00525 / Paper 000525 .DOC.

Gillis, W.R., Casavant, K. (1994) Lessons from Eastern Washington:State Route Maistreets, Bypass Routes and Economic Development inSmall Towns, EWITS Research Report#2, Dept. of AgriculturalEconomics, Washington State University.

Glen W. (2001) Highway Bypasses of Small Communities :Review ofFinding on Their Economic Impacts ,Economic Development ResearchGroup ,Inc.( www.danc.org/ncts/edr.htm)

Hakkert, SH. (1987) An analysis of Israel road accidents trend, StudyReport no. 118-87. Transportation Research institute. Technion, Haifa.(In Hebrew).


Harris, C.C. (1973) The Urban Economics, Lexington Books, Health,

Mass.

Jesse, L.B., Burke .JR. (1991) Employment and Income Impact ofExpendithres for Bypass , Loop and Radial Highway Improvements,Transportation Research Record, 1305, 224-232.

Johann A. S., Mahmassani, H. S., Helaakoski, R. (1993) EconomicImpact of Highway Bypasses , Transportation Research Record , 1395,144-152.

John, D., Edward , JR . (1994) Traffic and Land Use Planning and theDecline of the Central Business Districts, Institute of TransportationEngineers, vol 61 (12), 247-279.

Kipnis, B. and Balasha, D.( 1976 ). The Effects of Bypass on Vehicle-Pedestrian Safety and Business Activity Along A Town's Major Arterial:The Case of Ramla, Israel, Transportation Engineering, Technion-Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel.

Lanoie, P., Laplante, B., Roy, M. (1997) Can Capital Markets CreateIncentives for Pollution Control?, Working Paper 1753, DevelopmentResearch Group, The World Bank. Forthcoming in EcologicalEconomics.

Leong, D., Lichtman, L., Marcos, F., Michelson, K. (2002) Economicand Land Use Impacts Study of State Trunk Highway 29. Departmentof Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, United States.

Mackie , A.M.(1983) Effect of By-Passes on Town Development andLand Use, Transport and Road Research Laboratory, 105-112.

MacKinlay, A.C. (1997) Event studies in economics and finance,Journal of Economic Literature, 35, 1, 13-39.

Newland,V.J., Newby, R.F. (1962). Changes in Accident Frequencyafter the Provision of By-Passes. Traffic Engineering and Control, 3,614-616.

O'brien, SJ. (1983). Effect on emily street traders by the opening of theseymour bypass section of the hume freeway: seymour job centre survey,Seymour Job Centre, Seymour, Victoria, Australia, 14-17.

Paul, V. P. ( 1997 ) The Bypass Impact on Communities, TrafficCongetion and Traffic Safety in the 21st Century: Challenges,Innovatuins,and Opportunities, 167-172.


Scott Hoffeld and David Griffin , (1998) , Determining DisproportionateImpacts in Environmental Justice Evaluations , Wilmington Bypass ,Wilmington , North Carolina , 131-139.

Steptoe, R. and Thornton, C. (1986), Differential Influence of anInterstate Highway on the Growth and Development of Low-IncomeMinority Communities. Transportation Research Record, 1074, 60-68.

the influence of a bypass road on urban …...faculty of architecture and town planning, technion,...

Documents