The influence of climate change at high altitude and high latitude

Raino Heino Finnish Meteorological Institute

CONTENTS

- Background and sources

- Climate changes (past and future)- hellip and their impacts- helliphellip at high latitudes altitudes

- Concluding remarks

References

Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC)

2007

Impacts of Europersquos changing climate (EEA)

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)

etchellip

WMO- CCl (Commission for

Climatology)- IPY (International Polar Year)- CliC (Climate and Crysphere)

- BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change

etchellip

EEA ACIAseveral 2004

gt3000 p

WG1 WG2 WG3

2009 ~2013

2010 - 2012Springer 500p

References

Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC)

2007

Impacts of Europersquos changing climate (EEA)

Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA)

etchellip

WMO- CCl (Commission for

Climatology)- IPY (International Polar Year)- CliC (Climate and Crysphere)

- BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change

etchellip

EEA ACIAseveral 2004

gt3000 p

WG1 WG2 WG3

2009 ~2013

2010 - 2012Springer 500p

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established by WMO and UNEP in 1988 to assess scientific technical and socio-economic information relevant for the understanding of climate change its impacts and options for adaptation and mitigationMain activities and products -gt httpwwwipccchIPCC Working Groups 4 major assessment reports- WG I hellipscientific aspects of climate change - WG II hellipimpacts of climate changehellip- WG III hellipmitigating of climate changehellip

IPCC ja Nobel (2007)

IPCC 1990 IPCC 1996 IPCC 2007 hellipIPCC 2050

WHY IPCC hellip policymakers need an objective source of information about the causes of climate change its potential environmental and socio-economic consequences and the adaptation and mitigation options to respond to it

Rio 1992 Kyoto 1997 Bali 2007UNFCCC -gt Copenhagen 2009

Past climate data sources

helliphellipin different time-scaleshelliphellipGlobal Tempereture Changes

wwwknminlsamenweca

wwwwmoint -gt GCOS

Baseline networks of instrumental meteorological data

Arctic climate information

(ACIA)

helliphellipin different time-scaleshelliphellipGlobal Tempereture Changes

wwwknminlsamenweca

wwwwmoint -gt GCOS

Baseline networks of instrumental meteorological data

Arctic climate information

(ACIA)

wwwknminlsamenweca

wwwwmoint -gt GCOS

Baseline networks of instrumental meteorological data

Arctic climate information

(ACIA)

Stockholm Helsinki

Spitsbergen Norway

StykkisholmurIceland Tasillaq Greenland

NORDIC ANNUAL MEAN TEMPERATURES

1960-1920-

1800-

1840-1750-

Warming in the Arctic is gtgtdouble that for the globe from 19th to 21st century and from late 1960s to present

Warmth 1925 to 1950 in Arctic was not as widespread as recent global warmth

Note different scales

Arctic vs Global annual temperature anomalies (degC)

IPCC 2007

BACC The Baltic area has become warmerhellipbull spring growing season and summer start earlierbull autumn frost season and winter start later

Annual trends (daysyear)ECA dataset 1951-2000

10 20 30 40

50

60

70

10 20 30 40

50

60

70Frost days

Hot days

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1834 1854 1874 1894 1914 1934 1954 1974 1994

years

Dur

atio

n of

ice

cove

r (da

ys)

Oulujaumlrvi

Kallavesi

Naumlsijaumlrvi

Duration of the ice cover in some Finnish lakes

+-

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1870 1900 1930 1960 1990

Tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y ( C

)

North Year Filter South Year Filter

Annual mean temperature

Linear trend in the DJF number of events above 90th percentile during the period 1958ndash2000

Highprecipitation

(BALTEX Assessment of Climate ChangehellipBACC)

Interannual variability in water inflow is considerable but no statistically significant trend is found in the annual time series for the period 1921-2005

Change -gt 2071-2100

1961-90

httpwwwdartmouthedu~floodsArchives

2008

Large Flood Events 1985-2007

UNTIL NOW

- No change in heat content and salinity

- Accelerated rise of the sea level

- Less icehellip

Observed Projected

No long-term trends in storminessHowever it is possible to attribute parts of the observed regional changes to changes in the large-scale circulation

(BALTEX Assessment of Climate ChangehellipBACC)

Warming in the Arctic is gtgtdouble that for the globe from 19th to 21st century and from late 1960s to present

Warmth 1925 to 1950 in Arctic was not as widespread as recent global warmth

Note different scales

Arctic vs Global annual temperature anomalies (degC)

IPCC 2007

BACC The Baltic area has become warmerhellipbull spring growing season and summer start earlierbull autumn frost season and winter start later

Annual trends (daysyear)ECA dataset 1951-2000

10 20 30 40

50

60

70

10 20 30 40

50

60

70Frost days

Hot days

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1834 1854 1874 1894 1914 1934 1954 1974 1994

years

Dur

atio

n of

ice

cove

r (da

ys)

Oulujaumlrvi

Kallavesi

Naumlsijaumlrvi

Duration of the ice cover in some Finnish lakes

+-

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1870 1900 1930 1960 1990

Tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y ( C

)

North Year Filter South Year Filter

Annual mean temperature

Linear trend in the DJF number of events above 90th percentile during the period 1958ndash2000

Highprecipitation

(BALTEX Assessment of Climate ChangehellipBACC)

Interannual variability in water inflow is considerable but no statistically significant trend is found in the annual time series for the period 1921-2005

Change -gt 2071-2100

1961-90

httpwwwdartmouthedu~floodsArchives

2008

Large Flood Events 1985-2007

UNTIL NOW

- No change in heat content and salinity

- Accelerated rise of the sea level

- Less icehellip

Observed Projected

No long-term trends in storminessHowever it is possible to attribute parts of the observed regional changes to changes in the large-scale circulation

(BALTEX Assessment of Climate ChangehellipBACC)

BACC The Baltic area has become warmerhellipbull spring growing season and summer start earlierbull autumn frost season and winter start later

Annual trends (daysyear)ECA dataset 1951-2000

10 20 30 40

50

60

70

10 20 30 40

50

60

70Frost days

Hot days

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

1834 1854 1874 1894 1914 1934 1954 1974 1994

years

Dur

atio

n of

ice

cove

r (da

ys)

Oulujaumlrvi

Kallavesi

Naumlsijaumlrvi

Duration of the ice cover in some Finnish lakes

+-

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

1870 1900 1930 1960 1990

Tem

pera

ture

ano

mal

y ( C

)

North Year Filter South Year Filter

Annual mean temperature

Linear trend in the DJF number of events above 90th percentile during the period 1958ndash2000

Highprecipitation

(BALTEX Assessment of Climate ChangehellipBACC)

Interannual variability in water inflow is considerable but no statistically significant trend is found in the annual time series for the period 1921-2005

Change -gt 2071-2100

1961-90

httpwwwdartmouthedu~floodsArchives

2008

Large Flood Events 1985-2007

UNTIL NOW

- No change in heat content and salinity

- Accelerated rise of the sea level

- Less icehellip

Observed Projected

No long-term trends in storminessHowever it is possible to attribute parts of the observed regional changes to changes in the large-scale circulation

(BALTEX Assessment of Climate ChangehellipBACC)

(BALTEX Assessment of Climate ChangehellipBACC)

Interannual variability in water inflow is considerable but no statistically significant trend is found in the annual time series for the period 1921-2005

Change -gt 2071-2100

1961-90

httpwwwdartmouthedu~floodsArchives

2008

Large Flood Events 1985-2007

UNTIL NOW

- No change in heat content and salinity

- Accelerated rise of the sea level

- Less icehellip

Observed Projected

No long-term trends in storminessHowever it is possible to attribute parts of the observed regional changes to changes in the large-scale circulation

(BALTEX Assessment of Climate ChangehellipBACC)

httpwwwdartmouthedu~floodsArchives

2008

Large Flood Events 1985-2007

UNTIL NOW

- No change in heat content and salinity

- Accelerated rise of the sea level

- Less icehellip

Observed Projected

No long-term trends in storminessHowever it is possible to attribute parts of the observed regional changes to changes in the large-scale circulation

(BALTEX Assessment of Climate ChangehellipBACC)

UNTIL NOW

- No change in heat content and salinity

- Accelerated rise of the sea level

- Less icehellip

Observed Projected

No long-term trends in storminessHowever it is possible to attribute parts of the observed regional changes to changes in the large-scale circulation

(BALTEX Assessment of Climate ChangehellipBACC)

IPCC Past and future

Projected warmingin 21st century expected to be

- greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes

- and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean

Projections of future temperature changes

rdquoGreenrdquoworld

Medium

rdquoBaUrdquo

-gt Increases very likely in high latitudes-gt Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions

Projections of future precipitation changes

Winter Summer

Implications (hellip of climate changes) -gt IPCC WG2

Arctic ice and snow as well as permafrost and vegetation zones

2007 2005

Thickness

Ice cover of the Arctic Sea hellipis disappearing

Projected warmingin 21st century expected to be

- greatest over land and at most high northern latitudes

- and least over the Southern Ocean and parts of the North Atlantic Ocean

Projections of future temperature changes

rdquoGreenrdquoworld

Medium

rdquoBaUrdquo

-gt Increases very likely in high latitudes-gt Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions

Projections of future precipitation changes

Winter Summer

Implications (hellip of climate changes) -gt IPCC WG2

Arctic ice and snow as well as permafrost and vegetation zones

2007 2005

Thickness

Ice cover of the Arctic Sea hellipis disappearing

-gt Increases very likely in high latitudes-gt Decreases likely in most subtropical land regions

Projections of future precipitation changes

Winter Summer

Implications (hellip of climate changes) -gt IPCC WG2

Arctic ice and snow as well as permafrost and vegetation zones

2007 2005

Thickness

Ice cover of the Arctic Sea hellipis disappearing

Implications (hellip of climate changes) -gt IPCC WG2

Arctic ice and snow as well as permafrost and vegetation zones

2007 2005

Thickness

Ice cover of the Arctic Sea hellipis disappearing

2007 2005

Thickness

Ice cover of the Arctic Sea hellipis disappearing

Linear trend coefficients in the time series of mean snow depths for the permanent snow-cover period 1936-2000

EU-INTASproject (SCCONE)Snow cover changes over Northern Eurasia

Snow Satellite measurements 1966 ndashJuly 2008

IPCC Glaciers and frozen ground

Area of seasonally frozen ground has decreasedhellip

Increased glacier retreatsince the early 1990s

DesertSteppe

Dry climates

Mild winters

Dry summers

Wet all seasons

Cold winters

Dry summers

Wet all seasons

Polar climatesTundraIce cap

Koumlppen climatic zonesbased on present (1961-90) temperature and precipitation

Pine

Spruce

Birch

now in 2100 Flying into climate change

Climate threat to coral reefs

The Earth is rdquogreeningrdquo

(from satellites)

Biologicalinfluences

1990s

2020s

2050s

2080s

Temp amp Prec -gt 2100

Rising sea levelshellip60 cm

20 cm

IPCC2007

Concluding remarksClimate change will notbe gradual buthellip

Complicated sea currents

If the Golf stream would not exist

Greenland melting

- 5-10 degrC

gt 2 km

what about +5

Arctic ClimateImpact Assessment(ACIA 2004)

-gt httpwwwbaltex-researcheu

The overall format is similar to the IPCC- author groups for the individual chapters- overall policymakers-summary - review process

BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change -gt BACC (2007)

Springer 500p

-gt httpwwwaciauafedu

IPCC Glaciers and frozen ground

Area of seasonally frozen ground has decreasedhellip

Increased glacier retreatsince the early 1990s

DesertSteppe

Dry climates

Mild winters

Dry summers

Wet all seasons

Cold winters

Dry summers

Wet all seasons

Polar climatesTundraIce cap

Koumlppen climatic zonesbased on present (1961-90) temperature and precipitation

Pine

Spruce

Birch

now in 2100 Flying into climate change

Climate threat to coral reefs

The Earth is rdquogreeningrdquo

(from satellites)

Biologicalinfluences

1990s

2020s

2050s

2080s

Temp amp Prec -gt 2100

Rising sea levelshellip60 cm

20 cm

IPCC2007

Concluding remarksClimate change will notbe gradual buthellip

Complicated sea currents

If the Golf stream would not exist

Greenland melting

- 5-10 degrC

gt 2 km

what about +5

Arctic ClimateImpact Assessment(ACIA 2004)

-gt httpwwwbaltex-researcheu

The overall format is similar to the IPCC- author groups for the individual chapters- overall policymakers-summary - review process

BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change -gt BACC (2007)

Springer 500p

-gt httpwwwaciauafedu

DesertSteppe

Dry climates

Mild winters

Dry summers

Wet all seasons

Cold winters

Dry summers

Wet all seasons

Polar climatesTundraIce cap

Koumlppen climatic zonesbased on present (1961-90) temperature and precipitation

Pine

Spruce

Birch

now in 2100 Flying into climate change

Climate threat to coral reefs

The Earth is rdquogreeningrdquo

(from satellites)

Biologicalinfluences

1990s

2020s

2050s

2080s

Temp amp Prec -gt 2100

Rising sea levelshellip60 cm

20 cm

IPCC2007

Concluding remarksClimate change will notbe gradual buthellip

Complicated sea currents

If the Golf stream would not exist

Greenland melting

- 5-10 degrC

gt 2 km

what about +5

Arctic ClimateImpact Assessment(ACIA 2004)

-gt httpwwwbaltex-researcheu

The overall format is similar to the IPCC- author groups for the individual chapters- overall policymakers-summary - review process

BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change -gt BACC (2007)

Springer 500p

-gt httpwwwaciauafedu

1990s

2020s

2050s

2080s

Temp amp Prec -gt 2100

Rising sea levelshellip60 cm

20 cm

IPCC2007

Concluding remarksClimate change will notbe gradual buthellip

Complicated sea currents

If the Golf stream would not exist

Greenland melting

- 5-10 degrC

gt 2 km

what about +5

Arctic ClimateImpact Assessment(ACIA 2004)

-gt httpwwwbaltex-researcheu

The overall format is similar to the IPCC- author groups for the individual chapters- overall policymakers-summary - review process

BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change -gt BACC (2007)

Springer 500p

-gt httpwwwaciauafedu

Rising sea levelshellip60 cm

20 cm

IPCC2007

Concluding remarksClimate change will notbe gradual buthellip

Complicated sea currents

If the Golf stream would not exist

Greenland melting

- 5-10 degrC

gt 2 km

what about +5

Arctic ClimateImpact Assessment(ACIA 2004)

-gt httpwwwbaltex-researcheu

The overall format is similar to the IPCC- author groups for the individual chapters- overall policymakers-summary - review process

BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change -gt BACC (2007)

Springer 500p

-gt httpwwwaciauafedu

Concluding remarksClimate change will notbe gradual buthellip

Complicated sea currents

If the Golf stream would not exist

Greenland melting

- 5-10 degrC

gt 2 km

what about +5

Arctic ClimateImpact Assessment(ACIA 2004)

-gt httpwwwbaltex-researcheu

The overall format is similar to the IPCC- author groups for the individual chapters- overall policymakers-summary - review process

BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change -gt BACC (2007)

Springer 500p

-gt httpwwwaciauafedu

- 5-10 degrC

gt 2 km

what about +5

Arctic ClimateImpact Assessment(ACIA 2004)

-gt httpwwwbaltex-researcheu

The overall format is similar to the IPCC- author groups for the individual chapters- overall policymakers-summary - review process

BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change -gt BACC (2007)

Springer 500p

-gt httpwwwaciauafedu

Arctic ClimateImpact Assessment(ACIA 2004)

-gt httpwwwbaltex-researcheu

The overall format is similar to the IPCC- author groups for the individual chapters- overall policymakers-summary - review process

BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change -gt BACC (2007)

Springer 500p

-gt httpwwwaciauafedu

ARCTIC

Presentand futuretemperature

(Attributionhellip)

Natural +anhtropogeniccauses

Naturalcauses

NAOetc

• The influence of climate change at high altitude and high latitude Raino Heino Finnish Meteorological Institute
• References
• Slide Number 3
• Slide Number 4
• Slide Number 5
• Slide Number 6
• Slide Number 7
• Slide Number 8
• Slide Number 9
• Slide Number 10
• Slide Number 11
• UNTIL NOW - No change in heat content and salinity- Accelerated rise of the sea level- Less icehellip
• IPCC Past and future
• Projections of future temperature changes
• Projections of future precipitation changes
• Slide Number 16
• Slide Number 17
• Slide Number 18
• IPCC Glaciers and frozen ground
• The Earth is rdquogreeningrdquo
• Slide Number 21
• Rising sea levelshellip
• Slide Number 23
• Slide Number 24
• Slide Number 25
• Slide Number 26
• Slide Number 27
• Slide Number 28

(Attributionhellip)

Natural +anhtropogeniccauses

Naturalcauses

NAOetc

• The influence of climate change at high altitude and high latitude Raino Heino Finnish Meteorological Institute
• References
• Slide Number 3
• Slide Number 4
• Slide Number 5
• Slide Number 6
• Slide Number 7
• Slide Number 8
• Slide Number 9
• Slide Number 10
• Slide Number 11
• UNTIL NOW - No change in heat content and salinity- Accelerated rise of the sea level- Less icehellip
• IPCC Past and future
• Projections of future temperature changes
• Projections of future precipitation changes
• Slide Number 16
• Slide Number 17
• Slide Number 18
• IPCC Glaciers and frozen ground
• The Earth is rdquogreeningrdquo
• Slide Number 21
• Rising sea levelshellip
• Slide Number 23
• Slide Number 24
• Slide Number 25
• Slide Number 26
• Slide Number 27
• Slide Number 28