the influence of precipitation patterns on recent peatland fires in

Instructions for use

Title The influence of precipitation patterns on recent peatland fires in Indonesia

Author(s) Yulianti, Nina

Issue Date 2013-09-25

DOI 10.14943/doctoral.k11133

Doc URL http://hdl.handle.net/2115/53887

Type theses (doctoral)

File Information Nina_Yulianti.pdf

Hokkaido University Collection of Scholarly and Academic Papers : HUSCAP

https://eprints.lib.hokudai.ac.jp/dspace/about.en.jsp

Laboratory of Spatial Morphology

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THE INFLUENCE OF PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ON RECENT PEATLAND FIRES IN INDONESIA

NINA YULIANTI

HOKKAIDO UNIVERSITY 2013


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THE INFLUENCE OF PRECIPITATION PATTERNS ON RECENT PEATLAND FIRES IN INDONESIA By Nina YULIANTI A dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy

Division of Human Environmental System Graduate School of Engineering, Hokkaido University July 2013


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Dedication

I would like to expresses deepest gratitude and dedicate this study work for my beloved parent and grandparents for their never ending support, prayer, and

sacrifices during my study.


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The Influence of Precipitation Patterns on Recent Peatland Fires in Indonesia ABSTRACT

In August 2010, Indonesia formally admitted to producing about 2.1 billion tonnes of CO2, which is a very high amount (as a reference the United States produced about 5.2 billion tonnes of CO2), mostly as a result of peatland fires and deforestation. Although fires have become an annual phenomenon in Indonesia, the rate of rapid deforestation has showed a declining trend (FAO 2010). Indonesia has now been requested to reduce not only carbon emissions from peatland fires, but also haze which is cause to air pollution.

Therefore, hotspot data captured by MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) from 2002 to 2012 was examined in peatland of Indonesia, Kalimantan, and Sumatra using various grid sizes utilizing latitude and longitude angles from 1° × 1° to 0.01° × 0.01°. Precipitation data was mainly analyzed to explain fire activities in several regions in Kalimantan and Sumatra, simply because precipitation was a common weather data for all the major weather stations in Indonesia. The NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and JAMSTEC (Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology) definition of El Niño events and their SST anomaly values were also used to analyze their relationship with precipitation and fire activities. Preliminary analysis using a 1° (1° × 1°) grid cell was carried out to locate the most fire-prone areas in Indonesia. Analysis results clearly identified that among the approximately 500 cells covering Indonesia, there were 11 fire-prone cells where the annual average hotspot density exceeded 0.081 hotspots/km2 (= 1,000 hotspots). The top 11 fire prone cells were located solely in Kalimantan and Sumatra; one region (5 adjacent cells) in south Kalimantan, another region (5 adjacent cells) in north Sumatra, and one area (1 cell) in south Sumatra. Detailed analyses using 0.5° × 0.5° grid cells and precipitation data were carried out to understand the seasonal and spatial fire occurrence in Kalimantan and Sumatra more clearly. Most data were tallied every 10 days, enabling a detailed understanding of the seasonal and spatial fire occurrence and precipitation trends. Results of detailed analyses clearly show the number of fire-prone cells with an annual average hotspot density exceeding 0.129 hotspots/km2 (= 400 hotspots) to be 12 for Kalimantan and Sumatra. Two severe fire regions (7 adjacent cells) were identified in the MRP (Mega Rice Project) region in Kalimantan, and in the Dumai region in Sumatra, followed by the Sampit area in Kalimantan and the Palembang area in Sumatra (with 2 adjacent cells). Most fire-prone regions in Kalimantan and Sumatra are located on the peatland and its vicinity. Fire occurrence tendencies in fire-prone regions are mostly explained using the two different precipitation patterns of the region: the summer dry season (SD) pattern and the winter and summer dry season (WSD) pattern. The southern part of Kalimantan and Sumatra, which are located in the southern hemisphere and belong to the SD pattern, show severe fire activities over a relatively longer dry season over a few summer months. The northern part of Sumatra, which is located in the northern hemisphere and accords with to the WSD pattern, shows separate periods of fire activities, due to two dry seasons in both winter and summer months. From a comparison of fire activities in several areas on both islands, it is evident that the most severe peat fires occur in the southern part of Central Kalimantan, due to the relatively longer dry season (of more than 3 months under El Niño) compared with other areas. As a result, a novel method for forecasting and preventing future fires in Kalimantan and Sumatra was proposed. This method involves three factors: the observation of warning fire occurrence by MODIS, the assessment of drought conditions using the accumulated precipitation curve from around early June, and the use of El Niño information from NOAA with the additional from JAMSTEC.


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CONTENTS

Abstract ...................................................................................................................................... i Contents ..................................................................................................................................... ii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................. iv List of Figures ............................................................................................................................ v List of Appendices ..................................................................................................................... vii 1. INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................................. 1 2. LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1 Rainfall Patterns in Indonesia ....................................................................................... 3 2.2 Peat and Forest Fire Monitoring in Indonesia ............................................................... 4

3. METHODOLOGY 3.1 Study Site and Tropical Peatland Distribution .............................................................. 6

3.1.1 Kalimantan ...................................................................................................... 6 3.1.2 Sumatra ........................................................................................................... 7

3.2 Dataset and Method ...................................................................................................... 9 3.2.1 MODIS Hotspots Data using Grid Analysis ................................................... 9 3.2.2 Precipitation Data using Daily Mean Analysis ............................................... 10 3.2.3 Wind, NOAA, and JAMSTEC data ................................................................ 11 3.2.4 Hotspots, Forest, and Peatland Mapping using CAD and GIS Analysis ........ 11

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1 Recent Peat and Forest Fire Trends in Indonesia .......................................................... 12

4.1.1 Fire Distribution ............................................................................................. 12 4.1.2 Annual Fire Occurrence .................................................................................. 15 4.1.3 Seasonality of Fire (Monthly) ......................................................................... 16 4.1.4 Fire and Precipitation Trends in Kalimantan .................................................. 17 4.1.5 Fire and Precipitation Trends in Sumatra ....................................................... 19

4.2 Weather Conditions ...................................................................................................... 21 4.2.1 Precipitation-Dry Season ................................................................................ 21 4.2.2 Wind ............................................................................................................... 27

4.3 Recent Fire Trends in Kalimantan ................................................................................ 30 4.3.1 Fire-Prone Area and Peatland ......................................................................... 30 4.3.2 Annual Rate of Fire Occurrence ..................................................................... 31 4.3.3 Average Seasonal Fire Occurrence ................................................................. 32 4.3.4 Summary of Recent Fire and El Niño ............................................................ 33 4.3.5 Seasonal and Spatial Fire Occurrence under El Niño ..................................... 35

4.3.5.1 Fire occurrence in 2009 ..................................................................... 35 4.3.5.2 Fire occurrence in 2006 ..................................................................... 37 4.3.5.3 Fire occurrence in 2002 ..................................................................... 39 4.3.5.4 Fire occurrence in 2004 ..................................................................... 39

4.3.6 Typical Fire Distributions in El Niño Years ................................................... 40 4.4 Recent Fire Trends in Sumatra ..................................................................................... 42

4.4.1 Fire-Prone Area and Peatland ......................................................................... 42 4.4.2 Annual and Average Seasonal Fire Occurrence in N. Sumatra ...................... 43 4.4.3 Annual and Average Seasonal Fire Occurrence in S. Sumatra ...................... 44 4.4.4 Summary of Recent Fire and Two Types of El Niño ..................................... 46 4.4.5 Recent Extreme Fire Occurrence .................................................................... 47

4.4.5.1 Highest hotspots cell in Sumatra ....................................................... 47 4.4.5.2 Fire occurrence in 2005 in N. Sumatra .............................................. 48 4.4.5.3 Fire occurrence in 2006 in S. Sumatra ............................................... 49

4.4.6 Typical Fire Distributions in Extreme Fire Years .......................................... 50


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5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................ 55 Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................... 55 References .................................................................................................................................. 56 Appendices ................................................................................................................................. 61


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LIST OF TABLES No Tittle Page 3-1. Summary of analysis grid cells ............................................................................................. 9 4-1. Fire occurrence and weather conditions in the last ten years (2002–2011) .......................... 34 4-2. Summary of fire activities (hotspot) in six areas under El Niño conditions ......................... 35 4-3. Summary of severe fire activities (hotspot) and weather conditions in N. Sumatra ............ 47 4-4. Summary of severe fire activities (hotspot) and weather conditions in S. Sumatra ............. 47 4-5. Comparison of major highest hotspots cells in Sumatra and Kalimantan ............................ 48


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LIST OF FIGURES No Tittle Page 1-1. Peat, forest, and deforested area distribution map for Indonesia ........................................ 1 2-1. Typical agro-climatic, rainfall, and dry season regions for Indonesia ................................. 3 2-2. An illustration of peatland fires on the degraded peat dome and its vicinity area ............... 4 3-1. Distribution of peatland, mountainous regions, prevailing wind directions and

expected climate zone boundaries in Kalimantan ............................................................... 7 3-2. Distribution of peatland, weather station, and eight regions for analysis in Sumatra ........ 8 3-3. Five grid cell sizes on the map of MRP .............................................................................. 10 4-1. Hotspot distribution and 11 highest hotspot areas in Indonesia, 2002-2011 ....................... 12 4-2. Hotspot distribution, 5 regions, and 5 highest hotspot areas in Kalimantan ....................... 13 4-3. Hotspot distribution, 4 regions, and 5 highest hotspot areas in Sumatra ............................. 14 4-4. Annual fire occurrence in whole Indonesia (2002 – 2011) ................................................. 15 4-5. Fire period in six regions in Indonesia (2002 -2011) .......................................................... 16 4-6. Annual fire occurrence in Kalimantan and MRP, and dry season precipitation in

Palangkaraya (Central Kalimantan) .................................................................................... 17 4-7. Fire period in Kalimantan and MRP, and monthly mean precipitation in Palangkaraya

(Central Kalimantan) .......................................................................................................... 18 4-8. Annual fire occurrence in Sumatra, and dry season precipitations in Jambi (Jambi, south

Sumatra) and Pekan Baru (Riau, north Sumatra) ................................................................ 20 4-9. Fire period in Sumatra, and monthly mean precipitations in Jambi (Jambi, south Sumatra)

and Pekan Baru (Riau, north Sumatra) ............................................................................... 21 4-10. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 10- and 34-year data from Palangkaraya, Central

Kalimantan .......................................................................................................................... 22 4-11. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 7-year data from Sampit, Central Kalimantan .... 22 4-12. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 9-year data from Pontianak, West Kalimantan ... 23 4-13. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 12-year data from Samarinda, East Kalimantan . 24 4-14. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 12-year data from Medan, North Sumatra .......... 24 4-15. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 12-year data from Pekan Baru, Riau ................... 25 4-16. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 12-year data from Palembang, South Sumatra ... 26 4-17. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 12-year data from Jambi ..................................... 26 4-18. Wind velocity (a) and direction (b) data from Palangkaraya, Central Kalimantan ............ 27 4-19. Wind velocity (a) and direction (b) data from Pontianak, West Kalimantan ..................... 28 4-20. Wind velocity (a) and direction (b) data from Palembang, South Sumatra ........................ 29 4-21. Wind velocity (a) and direction (b) data from Medan, North Sumatra .............................. 30 4-22. Four provinces, five local areas, and fire-prone areas in Kalimantan, 2002-2011 ............. 31 4-23. Annual fire occurrence and monthly mean precipitation during August-September in

Palangkaraya ....................................................................................................................... 32 4-24. Average seasonal fire occurrence tendencies in Kalimantan .............................................. 33 4-25. Correlation between number of hotspots in dry season and average ONI in NDJ,

2002 - 2011 ......................................................................................................................... 34 4-26. Seasonal fire occurrence and accumulated precipitation from June in 2009 ...................... 36 4-27. Large hotspots (fire, red dot) and haze occurrences in southern Kalimantan captured

by NASA MODIS in 23 September 2009 ........................................................................... 37 4-28. Seasonal fire occurrence and accumulated precipitation from June in 2006 ...................... 38 4-29. Seasonal fire occurrence and accumulated precipitation from June in 2002 ...................... 39 4-30. Seasonal fire occurrence and accumulated precipitation from June in 2004 ...................... 40 4-31. Three typical fire distributions in Kalimantan. (a) Typical severe fire distribution in mid

October (2006); (b) Typical West Kalimantan fire distribution in early August (2009); (c) Typical pre-dry season (caution) fire distribution in late July (2009) ........................... 41

4-32. Map of the 12-highest hotspot cells, fire prone cells, and peatland in Sumatra ................. 42 4-33. Recent trends in annual fire occurrence in N. Sumatra ...................................................... 43


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No Tittle Page 4-34. Recent trends of average seasonal fire occurrence in N. Sumatra ...................................... 44 4-35. Recent trends in annual fire occurrence in S. Sumatra ....................................................... 45 4-36. Recent trends of average seasonal fire occurrence in S. Sumatra ....................................... 46 4-37. Fire occurrence and accumulated precipitation in 2005 ..................................................... 49 4-38. Fire occurrence and accumulated precipitation in 2006 ..................................................... 50 4-39. Large hotspots (fire, red dot) and haze occurrences captured by NASA MODIS.

(a) 9 March 2005 for N. Sumatra, and (b) 8 October 2006 for S. Sumatra ........................ 50 4-40. Two typical fire distributions in N. Sumatra. (a) Typical severe fire distribution in early

August (2005); (b) Typical peatland fire distribution in mid February (2005) .................. 51 4-41. Two typical fire distributions in S. Sumatra. (a) Typical severe peatland fire distribution in

early October (2006); (b) Typical early dry season (warning) fire distribution in late July (2006) .................................................................................................................................. 52


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LIST OF APPENDICES No Tittle Page 1. Daily precipitation in Palangkaraya, Central Kalimantan (mm), 1978-2012 ........................ 61 2. Daily precipitation in Sampit, Central Kalimantan (mm), 2006-2012 .................................. 62 3. Daily precipitation in Pontianak, West Kalimantan (mm), 2001-2012 ................................. 63 4. Daily precipitation in Samarinda, East Kalimantan (mm), 2001-2012 ................................. 64 5. Daily precipitation in Medan, North Sumatra (mm), 2001-2012 .......................................... 65 6. Daily precipitation in Pekan Baru, Riau (mm), 2001-2012 ................................................... 66 7. Daily precipitation in Palembang, South Sumatra (mm), 2001-2012 ................................... 67 8. Daily precipitation in Jambi, Jambi (mm), 2001-2012 .......................................................... 68 9. Daily wind direction in Palangkaraya, Central Kalimantan (o), 2002-2012 .......................... 69 10. Daily wind direction in Pontianak, West Kalimantan (o), 2002-2011 ................................... 70 11. Daily wind direction in Palembang, South Sumatra (o), 2005, 2006, & 2012 ...................... 71 12. Daily wind direction in Medan, North Sumatra (o), 2005, 2006, &2012 .............................. 72 13. Daily wind velocity in Palangkaraya, Central Kalimantan (m/s), 1997-2012 ...................... 73 14. Daily wind velocity in Pontianak, West Kalimantan (m/s), 2001-2012 ................................ 74 15. Daily wind velocity in Palembang, South Sumatra (m/s), 2005, 2006, &2012 .................... 75 16. Daily wind velocity in Medan, North Sumatra (m/s), 2005, 2006, &2012 ........................... 76 17. Aerial photo of peatland & canals condition in: (a) the MRP Block C, Central Kalimantan

& (b) near Pekan Baru, Riau ................................................................................................. 77 18. Peatland fires in the MRP area: (a) Block C north in 2009 & (b) Block C south in 2012 .... 78 19. Map of industrial plantation forest and annual crop plantation in Sumatra .......................... 79 20. Brochure JST-JICA project on SATREPS ”Wild Fire and Carbon Management in

Peat-Forest in Indonesia” ...................................................................................................... 80


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1. INTRODUCTION

Over millions of years, tropical forest and peatland have accumulated organic carbon and acted as a carbon sink. Approximately 60% of total global tropical peatland is located in Southeast Asia, and mostly of that peatland (~80%) is distributed only in Indonesia (Fig. 1-1) [1]. The total land area of Indonesia about 1,910,931km2 [2], almost 50% (~940,000km2) cover tropical forest areas which enable carbon sequestration of about 25,500Mt [3,4] and, partially overlapping, approximately 11% (~200,000km2) cover peatland areas with a carbon storage of about 55,000Mt [1,5]. Deforestation activities have contributed to a loss of 30% of tropical forests in Indonesia since 1950s, including for instance, the Mega Rice Project (MRP) which converted a large peat swamp forest (PSF) in the southern part of Kalimantan (>10,000km2) in the mid-1990’s [6,7,8]. Other deforested areas of Indonesia were created from 1985 to 2009, which did not include PSF areas (Fig. 1-1). The deforestation rate for Indonesia declined from the 1.75% for the 1990s to 0.51% in the 2000s [3]. However, one of the adverse effects of deforestation on the environment was the uncontrolled forest and peat fires that occurred prior to the period of 2013.

Fig. 1-1. Peat, forest, and deforested area distribution map for Indonesia

(Map data derived from GWI/GFW, FAO, Wetland, and BAKORSURTANAL)

Like other developing countries, most fires in Indonesia regions caused by human. For instance, vegetation fire in the southern peatland of Kalimantan often occurs in relation to burning activities within the plantations during the dry season. Once these human-caused fires have started, the fire behavior is controlled by natural factors such as precipitation, wind and dryness of fuel. For most tropical areas in Southeast Asia, including Indonesia with its relatively high annual rainfall, precipitation is one of most effective factors against fire. Indeed, our earlier study [15] showed that more than 90% of peat fires in Central Kalimantan from 1997 to 2007 occurred in the dry season. Secondly, fires on peatland are greatly controlled by the ground water level (GWL). Under low GWL condition, dried bare peat becomes most flammable materials. Because dried peat is a solid akin to a low-grade coal [16] and covers forest floor with relatively high spatial density compared to dominant vegetation types such as ferns and local trees [17] with lower spatial density compared with these peats. These fire activities could be produce a large amount of smoke and carbon dioxide (CO2).

The worst air pollution due to haze from fires in Southeast Asia history, occurred during the strongest the El Niño event of 1997-98, which was the strongest El Niño event on record prior to 2000. The dense haze causing this air pollution was released mainly from peat and forest fires in Indonesia [9]. Page et al. (2002)[10] estimated that 810 - 2,570Mt carbon was emitted during the high fire incidence in 1997. The assessment of the Carbon Dioxide Analysis Center (CDAIC) showed the total


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CO2 emissions for Indonesia in 2008 was 406,029Mt, an increase of about 280% over the 1990s [11]. Further, Indonesia has formally admitted to being the source of emissions of very large amounts of CO2 (about 2.1 billion tonnes), mostly from fires and deforestation [12]. Recent carbon emissions only from peat fire in South and Southeast Asia was very similar to the emission from the whole Sub-Sahara Africa emissions (an area 2.5 times larger) [13], which mostly from the largest Indonesia peatland. Thus, Indonesia [1] remains as one of the top carbon emitters, after China and US.

The government of Indonesia is preparing methodology and policies for the REDD+ (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation plus) program, which started in 2009 [14]. Indonesia has several pilot project provinces of REDD+, where mostly that area on peatlands and has high fire incident such as Kalimantan, and Sumatra Islands. Fires and emissions of CO2 are clearly a serious challenge for the future implementation of the REDD+ program in Indonesia. Under REDD+, Indonesia should be enhancing carbon storage and decreasing carbon emissions especially from annual forest and peat fires. To achieve the REDD+ goals, a comprehensive study related of fires and fire characteristics which considering local fire trends in different fire prone areas of Indonesia is necessary.

To evaluate the fire situation in Indonesia accurately, satellite monitoring is the best method. Since 2002, the MODIS sensor on board the Terra and Aqua satellites has covered the whole of Indonesia. Several earlier studies using MODIS hotspot data have focused on Asia [18], Southeast Asia [19], and Borneo [20]. Peat fire activity in the MRP area was discussed in Putra & Hayasaka (2011). However, there have only been a few reports related to fires in Sumatra fires. This study investigates hotspot data for Indonesia, Kalimantan, and Sumatra using several sizes of grid cells based on geographical latitude and longitude.

To ascertain the relationships between fire activity and various weather conditions, we obtained the weather data from several weather stations, where measured at the airports in Kalimantan and Sumatra. Mostly precipitation data in Kalimantan and Sumatra was available in recent twelve years (2001-2012), and not all the data was present. However, previous studies [21,22] have shown precipitation patterns in two Island of Indonesia and noted that the northern latitudes have a different weather pattern to the southern latitudes. Weather data from several weather stations also contained fundamental weather information such as wind direction and speed, temperature, and humidity.

Main goal of this study is to enable an effective future fire prevention strategy for reducing CO2 emissions and protecting the future of remaining peat forest in Indonesia. To achieve this, objectives of this study were as follows: 1. to understand typical spatial fire distribution and times of the most fires in recent years (MODIS

era) for whole Indonesia, 2. to clarify daily mean precipitation and typical dry season for Kalimantan and Sumatra, 3. to identify wind conditions for Palangkaraya, Pontianak, Palembang, and Medan, 4. to investigate how the differences of dry season patterns can be influence the seasonal fire

occurrence for Kalimantan and Sumatra, and 5. to compare the relationship among precipitation patterns, El Niño events, and peatland fire trends

between Kalimantan and Sumatra.


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2. LITERATURE REVIEW 2.1 RAINFALL PATTERNS IN INDONESIA

Due to a constant air temperature, rainfall conditions are an extremely important factor in the tropical zone. As many tropical countries, Indonesia is located along the equator have two seasons: one is the dry season and the other was the wet season. A historical weather map for Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua by Oldeman et al [23,24,25] defined dry (<100 mm/month) and wet seasons (>200 mm/month) using the monthly rainfalls. Fig. 2-1 shows there are several zones belonging to their consecutive dry and wet months. Aldrian and Susanto (2003) [21] described an imaginary line (a dotted red line) to divide the two regions related to the maximum amount of rainfall (the wet period). Seasonal rainfall pattern is largely influenced by monsoon wind activity, and Intertropical Convergence Zone [26]. In addition, variation of rainfall patterns among Indonesia regions can be partly explained by the topography conditions, for instance, Kalimantan dominated by lowlands, while Sumatra dominated by mountains. Other studies [22,27,28] explained that the rainfall in Indonesia has a negative correlation with El Niño conditions. In other words, a decline in the amount of rainfall will occur during El Niño. Rainfall also can be affecting the active fire on peatland areas related to ground water level [15], and surface vegetation moisture.

Fig. 2-1. Typical agro-climatic, rainfall, and dry season regions for Indonesia

(Map data derived from [21,23,24,25])

Several studies prior to 2002 (before MODIS era) showed an indication that the drought is a critical contributing factor for the fires in Southeast Asia [29]. Biomass burning in Indonesia since 1960 mostly occurred during low seasonal rainfall [30]. Likewise, Wooster et al. (2012)[31] explained the relationship between drought and fires before 2000s for Borneo (Kalimantan). Similarly, fires for Sumatra showed severe occurrences on 1997/1998 due to strongest El Niño, but did not clear its correlation with amount of rainfalls [32]. These studies mainly using monthly fires and rainfall variation and they were not sufficient to describe recent fire activity comprehensively. Previous paper of our research group clearly showed 90% of peat fires in the MRP area more pronounced during the dry months [15]. Precipitation model from Li et al. (2007) [33] predicted that future of daily rain rate would be decrease significantly for southern Sumatra and Kalimantan. This could be leading a increasing of the peatland fire risk.

Previous studies in Indonesia were mostly related to the relationship of fire and El Niño. However, no one has refers the influence of precipitation patterns (see Fig. 2-1) against peatland fire. This study used S 0.5o to define the spatial and temporal variation of precipitation patterns and their dry season as well as trends of fire activity. The southern parts of Indonesia (<S 0.5o), which are located in the southern hemisphere and belong to the summer dry season (SD for short). Otherwise, the northern parts of Indonesia (>S 0.5o), which are located in the northern hemisphere and accord with the winter and summer dry season (WSD for short). To investigate recent dry season pattern and its

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influence on the trends of fire, this study used daily mean precipitation (10-day average) analysis for peatland regions of Kalimantan and Sumatra.

2.2 PEAT AND FOREST FIRE MONITORING IN INDONESIA

Fires are not a part of the natural processes in the tropics with high rainfalls but fires still have a

long history in Indonesia. According previous studies, forest and peat fires in Indonesia can be divided into three phases of times. Firstly, ancient fires periods recorded thousand years before present (B.P) era, particularly in the Pleistocene and the Holocene [34,35,36]. After these fires, no certainty studies can be inform about catastrophic fires prior to early 1980s. Coincides with drought of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) incidents, there were occurred second phase of severe fire in 1982/83, 1987, 1991, 1994, and 1997/98 [31,37]. Lastly, recurring fires in the 21th century become annual event particularly on tropical peatlands areas [20,38,39].

A typical fire situation in peatlands has two types, namely underground (smoldering, peat fire) and aboveground fires (surface fires) as shown in Fig. 2-2. Under long-lasting dry condition, the peat fire spreading behavior could be simply explained by heat flows near the ground surface. At the top of the peat layer or ground surface, heat from peat fires warms air near the surface and the heated air moves upward. With this movement, cool surrounding air would move into the surface area and cool the surface. However, with the burning underground peat, the cooling flow of incoming air disrupted by the heat rising from the fire zone and so there is no flow of cooling air [40]. Further, this kind of peat fire tends to move toward underground layers and it was observed that these fires leave deep holes with depths of exceed ten centimeters at the peat fire site [41] with low temperature combustion [42]. The existence of these types of fires is very difficult to detect with the naked eye. Above the peatland floor, fire comes with flames and has high flame temperatures, around more than 800oC (Saharjo, 2006)[43]. Due to high temperatures, not only dead vegetative matter such as trees, bushes, grass, and ferns but also fresh, growing vegetation could be burn with relatively high fire spreading rates. However, this type of fire is more detectable than the previous one.

Fig. 2-2. An illustration of peatland fires on the degraded peat dome and its vicinity area Recent of peatland fires in Indonesia become one of global environmental issue due to high

season of carbon emissions, air pollutions, and deforestation. Nevertheless, the awareness of tropical burning as a problem was yet to obtain any considerable attention due to a lack of updates, as well as a lack of accurate and detailed data. The oldest fire data of the Ministry of Forestry (MoF) of Indonesia for such burnt areas of forests date back to only 1984 [38]. The limitation on conducting fire detection

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5

and monitoring include the many difficulties during and after fire events such as hazardous conditions, fires occurring in un-accessible areas, limited human resources, the time consuming nature of such activities, and costs. Limitations of firefighting facilities and personnel result in frequent and increasingly serious fires. In addition, firefighting efforts on peatland areas that are handled by the government are little effective. The use of satellite-based monitoring would lead to a better ability to comprehend and substantiate fire activities inside tropical forest areas and also in large peatland areas.

Since 1997, the NOAA-AVHRR satellite has recorded hotspots across western Indonesia under cooperation between MoF (Ministry of Forestry) and JICA-FFPMP (Japan International Cooperation Agency-Forest Fire Prevention and Management Project) [35]. One pixel of a NOAA hotspot covers about 1.1 x 1.1 km2; and a recorded hotspot indicates a fire and fires within such an area. Siegert and Hoffmann (2000) [44] using this to study forest fires in East Kalimantan in 1998 but their result showed limitation of NOAA hotspot such as false alarms and low quality of detection due to cloud disturbance. In 2002, the MODIS on board the Terra and Aqua satellites started to cover the whole of Indonesia. The active fire detection of both satellites (MOD14 and MYD14) was developed using contextual algorithms of brightness temperatures from the 4µm and 11µm channels. The method made it possible to observe small areas of flaming and smoldering combustion for hotspots of nearly 50m2

under calm weather, on homogeneous land surfaces, near nadir (the lowest point reached by satellite) and in pristine condition (free cloud and no barrier on the earth’s surface) [45,46,47].

There were two sources to distribute the data globally are the MODIS Rapid Response and the Fire Information for Resources Management System [48]. Several studies had been using MODIS hotspots data on the use of fire detection covering tropical countries. Csiszar et al. (2005) [49] and Giglio et al. (2006)[50] investigated global fire distribution in early MODIS coverage, whereas other studies emphasized occasional fire occurrences [19,20,51]. Therefore, the study here was the most recent study for Indonesia and uses a time series of MODIS hotspot data to understand typical trends of spatial and seasonal fire incidence from national to local scales, intensively.


6

3. METHODOLOGY 3.1 STUDY SITE AND TROPICAL PEATLAND DISTRIBUTION The study covered the area from north latitude 6o to south latitude 11o and from east longitude 95o to 142o. A map of the area of the study, the whole of Indonesia, with the forest and peat distribution superimposed, is shown in Fig.1-1. The total area of the study region is about 11,020,000 km2 (east-west around 5,100 km and north-south around 1,900 km), as shown in Fig. 1-1. Comparing to the total land area of Indonesia, making the ratio of Indonesian land area to the whole area of the studied region about 0.2, with the remaining 80% of the study area covered by sea. This high percentage of sea areas arises as Indonesia an archipelago country, and with exceeds 18,000 islands. There were seven major islands and regions, namely Papua, Kalimantan (Borneo), Sumatra, Sulawesi (Celebes), Java, Moluccas, and Lesser Sunda Islands (Bali, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara). The largest peatland in Indonesia distributed on the three top largest islands (Papua, Sumatra, and Kalimantan), as shown in Fig.1-1. Further study, however, we focused on Kalimantan and Sumatra Islands due to very active peat and forest fire in the recent years. 3.1.1 Kalimantan

Kalimantan covered the Indonesian territory from about N 4.3° to S 4.5° and from about E 108.5° to 118.5° (Fig.3-1). The total land area of Kalimantan is about 586,000 km2 (~70% of Borneo Island; [2]). Kalimantan is politically divided into four provinces, namely West, Central, South, and East Kalimantan. East Kalimantan has the largest land area of 245,000 km2 (42% of the area of Indonesian Kalimantan). Land areas for Central, West, and South are 157,000 (27%), 146,000 (25%), and 36,000 km2 (6%), respectively. Presently, the tropical forest, which partially overlaps the peat swamp forest, still covers nearly half of Kalimantan (~240,000 km2 (41%); [52]).

Distribution of peatland is shown in Fig. 3-1. From Fig. 3-1, it can be seen that coastal areas in Kalimantan, especially in West and Central Kalimantan, are mainly composed of so-called coastal peatland. Coastal peatland is distributed from the northern area of Singkawang in West Kalimantan to the MRP area near Banjarmasin in South Kalimantan. East Kalimantan also has a large coastal peatland near Tarakan. Two large interior peatlands, independent from the coast, are located near Semitau (Lake Sentarum) in the interior area of West Kalimantan and the west side area of Samarinda in East Kalimantan. The total area of peatlands in Kalimantan is about 57,000 km2 (about 10% of the land area of Kalimantan; [53]) and larger than the land area of South Kalimantan province.

Approximate positions of major rivers are also drawn in Fig. 2-1 to show their relationships with the peatlands. Most of the peatlands in Kalimantan were made from the accumulation of soil organic matter (peat) during the Holocene era [54]. Tropical swamp forests are distributed on these peatlands thanks to rivers transporting not only water but also nutrients from mountainous areas. Thus, Great Kahayan and Kapuas River in Central Kalimantan could nourish a large area of tropical swamp forests in MRP and its surrounding area. However, after deforestation and land development such as MRP in such a tropical swamp forest, fires could become somewhat more severe due to drainage or bared dry peat soil. The altitude of peatland near Palangkaraya is only 14 m and its distance from the nearest coast is 100 km, as shown in Fig. 3-1.

Under very flat geographical conditions, very thick peat layers (deeper than 10 m at peat dome) in MRP areas were formed in places over a long period time [55]. Nowadays, flat condition will make fire very likely. In other words, irrigation canals from major rivers could not provide sufficient water to MRP areas due to lower river water level when drought condition occur. Namely, once drought started, vast dried peatland will be made in MRP under low ground water level condition because irrigation canals worked as drainage canals. It will lead to severe peat fire occurrence. Thus, recent frequent peat fires in MRP area become one of big issue for the world environmental.


7

Fig. 3-1. Distribution of peatland, mountainous regions, prevailing wind directions, five regions, and expected climate zone boundaries in Kalimantan

In Fig.3-1, four province borders in Kalimantan and one country border with Malaysia,

defined by the side of a 0.5° grid cell are shown by solid lines for convenience. The total number of cells in the four provinces was 225, comprising 64 for West, 66 for Central, 82 for East and 16 for South Kalimantan. To identify prone areas and to discuss fire activity in Kalimantan in detail, we defined five local regions inside three provinces, excluding East Kalimantan. They were “MRP+”(17 cells including 6 cells from South Kalimantan) in Central and South Kalimantan, “Sampit” (29 cells) in Central Kalimantan, “North West Kalimantan” (A subset of West Kalimantan, North W.K. for short here after) (24 cells), “South West Kalimantan” (South W.K.) (12 cells), and “Interior West Kalimantan” (Interior W.K.) (26 cells), as shown in Fig. 4-22.

3.1.2 Sumatra

The study area covers Sumatra Island from N 6° to S 6° and from E 95° to 108° (Fig. 3-2). Sumatra covers a total land area of about 474,000 km2 (approximately 89.1% of the size of Kalimantan which covers 532,000 km2). Presently, the tropical forest, which partially overlaps the peat swamp forest, only remains about quarter of Sumatra (~120,000 km2; [56]). The total peatland area of Sumatra is about 72,000 km2, which is approximately 15% of the land area of Sumatra [57], (120% larger than that of Kalimantan at 58,000 km2). The distribution of peatland is shown in a dark

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color (brown) in Fig. 3-2. The main area of peatland in Sumatra has developed in a large area of lowland on the east coast, covering a distance of roughly 1,200 km from the north of Dumai in Riau (~N 2.6°) to the north of Lampung (~S 5°), and covering a distance of nearly 200 km (maximum distance) inland from the coast. Other several small areas of peatland are independently located on the west coast and inland, (west of Riau, Jambi and Palembang). North Sumatra has the deepest area of peatland, at a depth of around 9 m [58]; in S. Sumatra the depth is shallower, at about 4 m [57]. Nowadays, major peatland is maintained by several drainage systems under large plantation companies, but many of them use unsuitable system to preserve the peatlands (very low ground water level). As a result, vegetation fires related to agriculture activities tend to be more widespread in Sumatra even outside peatland or undeveloped areas far from seacoast. Recent frequent fires related to deforestation, for instance, in the Riau areas of North Sumatra Province also become one of global environmental issue related to CO2 emission (3.6 Giga tons CO2, [59])

Fig. 3-2. Distribution of peatland, weather station, and eight regions for analysis in Sumatra

In Fig. 3-2, in order to clarify spatial and seasonal fire occurrences in Sumatra, the author have

given suitable names to regions. The borders of these regions are different from those used in conventional political and geographical maps. Sumatra divided into two regions, N. (north) and S. (south) Sumatra, using a latitude line of S 0.5° by considering two different precipitation patterns [21], an historical climatic map revealed several precipitation patterns occurring in Sumatra [23], and a previous study by Chang et al. (2005)[26], as shown in Fig. 3-2.

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Analysis using a 0.5° grid cell provided approximately 105 and 95 cells for N. and S. Sumatra respectively. These cells in N. and S. Sumatra were then grouped into regions, to clarify the spatial and seasonal fire occurrence, particularly for areas of peatland (shown in Fig.3-2). The borders of these regions were constructed on the connecting lines from the rectangular analysis cells (0.5° grid cell). Fig.3-2 then allocated suitable regional names, such as “Dumai+14” (14 cells, a subset of North Sumatra and Riau Province), “Pekan Baru+12” (12 cells for a subset of Riau Province) in N. Sumatra, “Jambi+7” (7 cells, a subset of south Riau and Jambi Province) and “Palembang+16” (16 cells, a subset of South Sumatra and north Lampung Province) in S. Sumatra. Borders of these four regions are shown by the lines in Fig. 3-2. We put “+” after each region to show the expanded region of each local area name (such as “Dumai+”), so as to avoid confusion with the conventional administrative name. The number provided at the end of the names is used to describe the number of cells that the region occupies. The other two regions, and the remaining cells from the above four regions, were simply named N. Others (79 cells), and S. Others (72 cells). Finally, two special areas, Dumai 4 in N. Sumatra and Palembang 6 in S. Sumatra, were introduced to highlight the extreme fire activities in these areas in 2005 and 2006.

3.2 DATASET AND METHOD 3.2.1 MODIS Hotspots Data using Grid Analysis

Daily MODIS hotspot data (Collection 5.1 active fire product) for 2002 to 2012 were used in this paper. Recently, MODIS data has been extracted automatically through the FIRMS website (Fire Information for Resources Management System, http://earthdata.nasa.gov/data/near-real-time-data/data/firms). The hotspot data was the composite data of the Terra and Aqua and includes 12 separate data items such as latitude, longitude, brightness, confidence, acquisition date, etc. Single pixel hotspots could represent a single fire or fire within a 1km2 area [47].

Several cell sizes were used in this analysis, all utilizing latitudes and longitudes as the basis for the grid in the identification of locations across Indonesia. Cell sizes with side lengths from 1 to 0.01 degrees were evaluated as shown in Table 3-1. For simplicity, the cell side lengths were based on latitude and longitude, and the area of cells differs depending on latitude. Representative lengths and areas for various cell sizes are detailed in Table 3-1. The actual size of various grid cells is shown on the map of MRP (Mega Rice Project in Central Kalimantan) in Fig. 3-3, where the five blocks of the MRP (A, B, C, D, and E) are colored differently.

Table 3-1. Summary of analysis grid cells

Grid Cell Size (Degree of

Lati. & Long.)

Representative Length & Area (One Degree at Equator) Target

Maximum Number of

Grids Length (km) Area (km2)

1 x 1 111.3 12,387.7 Whole Indonesia 846 0.5 x 0.5 55.7 3,096.9 Kalimantan, etc. 3,384 0.1 x 0.1 11.1 123.9 MRP, etc. 84,600

0.05 x 0.05 5.6 31.0 Village, etc. 338,400 0.01 x 0.01 1.1 1.2 Plantation, etc. 8,460,000

*Note that the center of cell locate at grid intersects, for example, centered on 1o N and E 101o covers the area north latitude 0.5o-1.5o and east longitude 100.5o -101.5o

By using this grid cell scheme, hotspots were tallied depending on their latitude and longitude. In this paper, the hotspot density unit uses “cell” instead of km2, “hotspots/cell” was used to enable a simple comparison with various hotspot values such as annual, monthly, and mean number of hotspots


10

in various regions composed by multiple cells. Conversion from hotspots/cell to a general hotspot density unit of “hotspots/km2” can be obtained by dividing the number of hotspots in one cell by the cell area of around 12,300 km2. The inter-cell difference in Indonesia is small less than about 1.5% difference between cell areas at the equator and at 10o south latitude.

In detail for Kalimantan and Sumatra, cell sizes with side lengths from 0.5 to 0.01 degrees were used. For simplicity, the cell side lengths were based on latitude and longitude, meaning that the area of cells differs depending on latitude. Most of the analysis used a grid cell size of 0.5° in longitude and latitude to evaluate hotspot density and fire distribution in Kalimantan. Hotspots were tallied depending on their longitude and latitude. A hotspot density measurement of “hotspots/cell” was introduced for simple comparison. Conversion to a more exact and universal measurement of “hotspots/km2” should be carried out using the length of the 0.5° grid at various latitudes. However, there is not much difference in the areas of 0.5° grid cells located within 0° ± 4.5° latitude. The approximate area of these grid cells at the equator will be used in the conversion, as shown in Table 3-1.

Fig. 3-3. Five grid cell sizes on the map of MRP

3.2.2 Precipitation Data using Daily Mean Analysis

Precipitation data for the MRP+ area (Central Kalimantan) was extracted from full weather data measured at Palangkaraya Airport (Tjilik Riwut, S2.23°, E113.95°), which is about 100 km from the nearest coastline (see Fig.3-1). The mean precipitation from the 34 years from 1978 to 2011 was used to ascertain the dry season period. The last 10 years of mean precipitation data, from 2002 to 2011, were used to show recent precipitation trends and their relation to fire occurrence. Additionally, precipitation data from 2006 to 2012 was measured at Sampit Climatology Station (S Sampit, 2.55°,


11

E112.93°), about 4 km from Mentaya River (see Fig. 2-1). The use of data was mostly for comparison the drought against severe peak fire in 2006 for the southern part of Kalimantan and Sumatra.

Precipitation data measured at Pontianak Airport (Siantan Climatology Station, S0.15°, E109.40°), located about 25 km from the nearest coastline (see Fig.3-1), and are used for the northern part of West Kalimantan. Ten years of mean precipitation data from 2001 to 2012 (excluding 2003 due to 5 months missing data) were used to show the dry season period, recent precipitation tendency, and their relations to fire. For a comparison weather condition for the peatland on the eastern Kalimantan, precipitation data was extracted the last 12-year (2001-2012) data measured at Samarinda Airport (Temindung, S0.47°, E117.02°), which is about 53 km from the nearest coastline (see Fig. 2-1).

Precipitation data for the north Sumatra areas was extracted from precipitation data measured at Pekan Baru Airport (Sultan Syarif Kasim II, N0.47°, E101.45°), which is about 106 km from the nearest coastline (see Fig. 3-2). Other precipitation data was obtained from Medan Airport (Polania, N3.66°, E98.60°), which is about 19 km from nearest coastline (see Fig. 3-2). The last 12 years of both mean precipitation areas, from 2001 to 2012, were used to ascertain the dry season, to show the recent precipitation trends, and their relation to fire occurrence in North Sumatra.

Precipitation data for the south Sumatra measured at Palembang Airport (Sultan Mahmud Badaruddin II, 2.90°S, 104.70°E), located about 55 km from the nearest coastline (see Fig. 3-2), and are used for South Sumatra. Twelve years of mean precipitation data were used to show the dry season period, recent precipitation tendency, and their relations to fire in South Sumatra. Other precipitation data was extracted the last 12-year data measured at Jambi Airport (Sultan Taha, S1.63°, E103.65°), which is about 90 km from the nearest coastline (see Fig. 2-1). All of stations located in Kalimantan and Sumatra are under the authority of Indonesia Meteorological, Climatology and Geophysical Agency (BMKG).

Daily precipitation data were processed to determine the average daily precipitation data for certain periods and the accumulated precipitation data from an arbitrary date. In this paper, a 10-day period was used to evaluate the average daily precipitation and day number (DN for short here after) was used as an arbitrary date or starting date for accumulated precipitation. This data processing was applied for simplicity instead of other data smoothing methods. By using a 10-day period, we could identify the dry season more easily. Expressions such as early June, mid August, late September are used in this paper instead of DN = 150 to 159. In addition, accumulated precipitation data for every 10-day is simply converted to mean daily precipitation (mm/day).

3.2.3 Wind, NOAA, and JAMSTEC Data

This study used daily wind direction and velocity data were obtained from three Climatology stations in Kalimantan (Palangkaraya, Sampit, Pontianak) and two Climatology stations in Sumatra (Palembang and Medan). More than 10-year of wind data, except for Medan is 3-year had processed by monthly and 10-day average analysis (same as hotspots and precipitation).

To define conventional El Niño, La Niña, and normal conditions related to drought, monthly NOAA Oceanic Nino Index (ONI) for the recent 10-year (2002-2011) was used in this analysis. There was 3-month running mean of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies (SSTA) in the Niño 3.4 region (N5o-S5o, W120o-170o). The changes of ONI data was obtained from NOAA Climate Prediction Center website [60].

To define El Niño Modoki (pseudo-El Niño) related to 2005 wide drought in north Sumatra, monthly JAMSTEC ENSO Modoki Index (EMI) was used in this analysis [61]. The index is defined as: [SSTA]A-0.5*[SSTA]B-0.5*[SSTA]C. The region A covers E165°–W140°, N 10°S–10°; B covers W110° – 70°, S15°–N 5°; and C covers E125°–145°, S10° – N20°.

3.2.4 Hotspots (Fire), Forest, and Peatland Distribution using CAD and GIS Analysis

Mapping of hotspots and overlying on geographical and satellite images were done using CAD (VectorWorks 2010) software. GIS (Arcview and Cartographica) software was used to made forest, peatland distribution and various maps. The software were extracted, digitized, and geo-processed the spatial data, which derived from several sources such as NASA MODIS, Google Earth, GWI/GFW, FAO, Wetlands, Ministry of Forestry, and BAKORSURTANAL.


12

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 4.1 RECENT PEAT AND FOREST FIRE TRENDS IN INDONESIA 4.1.1 Fire Distribution

The MODIS hotspot data provided by NASA for 2002-2011 was plotted as shown in Fig. 4-1. A total of 631,529 hotspots were recorded in the region covered by the study (N 6o - 11o, E 95o to 142o). About ninety percent of the hotspot cells in Fig. 4-1 fall fully within the borders of the grid cells covering only areas of Indonesia, the remaining is in the cells overlapping the surrounding countries as shown in Fig. 4-1. The limits of the cells extending outside Indonesia is an artifact of the one degree sized grid cells used in the analysis here. This paper ignores administrative boundaries to simplify the analysis and for the ease of the data treatment.

In Fig. 4-1, all coordinate points of MODIS hotspots are indicated with the smallest size of dots. The resulting map shows areas of dense red color regions in Indonesia (regions with high incidences of hotspots) and these can be simply identified on the map in Fig. 4-1. To show fire prone areas more clearly, several cells with the number of hotspots are marked at the cells as shown in Fig. 4-1. Eleven cells overlaid by white in Fig. 4-1 shows cells with fire occurrences above 0.081 hotspots/km2 (=1,000 hotspots). There are five such cells in south Kalimantan, five in north Sumatra, and one in south Sumatra. These cells are named H-1 to H-11 (in descending order with H-1 showing the cell with the highest fire incidence: H-1, H-2, H-3, H-5, and H-8 in Kalimantan (Fig. 4-2), H-4 in south Sumatra, and H-6, H-7, H-9, H-10, and H-11 in north Sumatra (Fig. 4-3).

Fig. 4-1. Hotspot distribution and 11 highest hotspot areas in Indonesia, 2002-2011

The cell with the most fires in south Kalimantan, H-1 (also named MRP*), is located at south latitude 2.5o to 3.5o and east longitude 113.5o to 114.5o (see Fig. 3-3 for the exact position of this cell) had a mean 2,223 hotspots/yr and a maximum of 5,382 hotspots in 2006. To evaluate the fire incidence in this cell objectively the concept hotspot density will be introduced. The 2,223 hotspots/yr for this cell was converted to an annual mean hotspot density of 0.182 hotspots/km2 (dividing the number of fires with the area of the cell in km2) and to a daily hotspot density of 0.497 NASA fire pixels/ (1,000km2 day) (see more detail in the NASA Earth Observations, http://earthobservatory. nasa.gov/). This 0.497 figure is not a very high hotspot density in the NASA scale but it becomes 1.8 pixels/ (1,000km2 day) when considering that fires only occur during about 100 fire days in July, August, and September. This high daily hotspot density shows that the fire incidence in this particular cell in south Kalimantan is among the most intense fire incidences of any area in the world.

There are four other cells with the cells with the very highest fire incidence in Kalimantan. The


13

second and third (H-2 and H-3) are adjacent to H-1 discussed above. The H-2 cell is to the west of H-1 and H-3 is to the north of H-1.

Several noticeable fire and fire free areas can be observed in Fig. 4-2 and in the enlarged insert for the area around Palangkaraya near the top of Fig. 4-2. Most of fires here are human-caused, and occur along canals, roads, and at the seacoast. Such fires form linear patterns and are simply identified in Fig.4-2. The areas with dense hotspots suggest high human activity with deforestation, slash and burn clearing, and plantations. There are 16 cells with more than 500 hotspots/(yr cell) in Fig. 4-2 that deserve special attention. One is south of Palangkaraya in the enlarged insert in Fig. 4-2. There are fire free areas even in H-1 (MRP*), the cell with the highest fire incidence in MRP. In the left upper side of the H-1 cell, there is a fire free area. This area corresponds to a tropical swamp forest south of Palangkaraya (the dense green area in Fig.3-3).

Fig. 4-2. Hotspot distribution, 5 regions, and 5 highest hotspot areas in Kalimantan

Six of the cells with the highest fire incidences (>0.081 hotspots/km2; =1.000 hotspots) were in

Sumatra, H-4, H-6, H-7, H-9, H-10, and H-11. The H-4 cell is at south latitude 2.5o-3.5o and east longitude 104.5o-105.5o. It had 1,387 hotspots/yr or hotspot density of 0.113 hotspots/(km2yr). This cell is located in middle of the south Sumatra area that includes Palembang (capital of South Sumatra Province, (Fig. 4-3). This cell was also named Palembang to make the fire incidence in this cell more easily comparable with the “MRP*” cell in Kalimantan. The H-6 area is at north latitude 0.5o-1.5o and east longitude 100.5o-101.5o, in the middle of north Sumatra, and is close to Pekan Baru (capital of Riau Province, (Fig.4-3). It had 1,280 hotspots/yr (hotspot density: 0.104 hotspots/(km2yr)).


14

The H-7, H-9, H-10, and H-11 areas are all around the H-6 cell, as shown in Fig. 4-3. Five other “high fire incidence cells,” H-6, H-7, H-9, H-10, and H-11 with 1,280, 1,231, 1,152, 1,080, and 1,001 hotspots/(yr cell) respectively lie in North Sumatra 10, mainly in Riau Province. Among these the H-10 cell had 4,906 hotspots in 2005 and the total for these five cells exceeded 5,700 hotspots/(yr cell). Fires in this region may be partially related to the activities of two companies, Asia Pulp and Paper (APP) and Asia Pacific Resources International Limited (APRIL), during the ten year study period. These companies have several pulp mills and paper plants in Riau, Jambi, and South Sumatra Province.

Based on the eleven H-1 to H-11 cells with the highest fire incidences in Indonesia, the authors defined three fire prone areas “South Kalimantan 12”, “South Sumatra 10”, and “North Sumatra 10” as shown in Fig. 4-2. The numbers in Fig. 4-1 shows the number of fires in the cells with the highest incidence in each area. There were eight areas with fire incidences higher than 500 hotspots/(yr cell) and these are shown as blue rectangles with dotted outlines in Fig. 4-1. Three were in West Kalimantan, one in central East Kalimantan and the final four in central Sulawesi, Sumba, and Timor (two).

Finally, we will notice the above-mentioned cells with high fire incidence (H-1 to H-12) coincide with peatland areas in Kalimantan, Sumatra, and Papua by comparing Fig. 1-1 and Fig. 4-1. Peat fire is one of great environmental concern not only for Indonesia but also for the world. Peatland fires emit larger amounts of CO2 and other air pollutants due to low temperature combustion or smoldering [41]. Two high fire areas in Sumba and Timor are due to savanna fire [62].

Fig. 4-3. Hotspot distribution, 4 regions, and 5 highest hotspot areas in Sumatra


15

4.1.2 Annual Fire Occurrence

The annual fire occurrence in the six major regions of Indonesia (see Fig. 4-1) during the most recent ten years (2002-2011) is shown in Fig. 4-4. The unit of the Y-axis in Fig. 4 related to hotspot in this paper is the number of hotspots. The bar graph in Fig. 4-4 shows the number of fires in the six regions, from top to bottom: Papua+, Java+, Sulawesi+, Sumba+ and Timor+, Sumatra+, and Kalimantan+. Thus, this paper ignores administrative boundaries to simplify the analysis and for the ease of data treatment and puts “+” after each region name like “Sumatra+” to show the expanded region defined in this paper. The bottom section of the bars for Kalimantan distinguishes the number of fires in a cell for the Mega Rice Project (H-1 or MRP*). The total number of cells in the regions were 513: 198 for Papua+, 37 for Java+, 91 for Sulawesi+, 66 for Sumba+ and Timor+, 101 for Sumatra+, and 86 including the MRP* cell for Kalimantan+. The annual mean numbers of fires in the six regions were averaged and the rightmost bar, to the right of the bar for 2011, shows the average annual incidence of fires in the six regions.

Fig. 4-4. Annual fire occurrence in whole Indonesia (2002 – 2011)

The rightmost bar in Fig. 4-4 shows that the annual mean number of hotspots in Indonesia was

about 58,000. About 80% of these fires occurred in only two of the regions, Kalimantan+ and Sumatra+, which were responsible for 23,460 and 21,488 fires (40.6% and 37.2%) respectively. The fire incidence for the other four regions is: Sumba+ and Timor+ with 4,774 fires (8.3%), Sulawesi+ 4,084 (7.1%), Java+ 2,226 (3.8%), and Papua+ 1,799 (3.1%). Fire occurrence in the MRP* cell is at the bottom of this annual mean bar in Fig. 4-4, and the 2,223 fires in the MRP* cell were very similar to the number in Java+ (an area nearly 40 times larger) and larger than that of Papua+ (area about 200 times larger).

The most fires in the six major regions occurred in two different years, 2006 (Kalimantan+ and Sumatra+) and 2002 (Sumba+ and Timor+, Sulawesi+, Java+, and Papua+). In 2006, there were 54,302 fires in Kalimantan+ and 42,361 Sumatra+. These two regions contribute 84.1% of the total fires in 2006. In 2002, the fire numbers were 9,761 for Sulawesi+, 7,146 for Sumba+ and Timor+, 4,440 for Papua+, and 3,398 for Java+ but their contribution to the total fire numbers of Indonesia was only 27.9%. The proportion of fires occurring in Kalimantan+ was high in both 2006 (47.2%) and 2002 (49.7%). Active fires in 2006 and 2002 occurred under the drought conditions related to the El Niño event (see Fig. 4-4). A detailed discussion about relationship between fire activities and drought will be elucidated in chapter 4.4.

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16

The number of hotspots in the ten years varied by a factor of seven between the year with the most fires, 114,977 in 2006 and the year with the fewest, 16,335 fires, in 2010. The following statistical approach provides a more objective discussion of fire occurrence. The fire occurrences in seven out of the ten years were within ±1σ(=68.26%). The remaining three years had ±1σ values of 1.01 for 2002, 1.87 for 2006, and –1.36 for 2010. Statistically, the probability of the occurrence of a year with a high number of fires, such as 2006 is about 6%, suggesting that a year with the number of fires in 2006 will occur roughly every 17 years, if the fire occurrences are assumed to follow a normal distribution. 4.1.3 Seasonality of Fire (Monthly)

This chapter will discuss the times that fires occur with monthly means for the ten years period from 2002 to 2011. Figure 4-5 shows the average fire incidence for each month in the ten years for the different regions of Indonesia. As suggested by Fig. 5 the period of the most frequent fire occurrence in the whole of Indonesia are the three months August, September, and October where the number of fires reached 13,890, 14,589, and 11,264 respectively, for a three month total of 39,743, representing about 70% of the average annual hotspot number (57,800).

Fig. 4-5. Fire period in six regions in Indonesia (2002 -2011)

From Fig. 4-5 it is possible to determine the month(s) with the highest fire incidence for the

different regions in Indonesia. In Kalimantan+ fires were most frequent in the three months August, September, and October. The number of fires in these three months reached 19,895 (7,471 in August, 7,543 in September, and 4,881 in October), 85.5% of the annual hotspot average (23,250 fires). The months with the most fires for Sumatra+ were August and September, and Sumatra+ had a noticeable number of fires in six other months but only very few fires in April, November, and December. In Sumatra the highest number of fires in August is not much higher than in other months, the contribution of fires in August is only 21% of the whole year (21,200 hotspots/yr), which is smaller than the 32% in September (the month with most fires) in Kalimantan. The months with the highest fire incidence for the remaining four regions are also seen in Fig. 4-5, for Java+, August, September,


17

and October, and for the three regions of Sulawesi+, Timor+ & Sumba+, and Papua+, the highest fire incidence was October. The next chapter will be discussed in more detail the fire trends with the focus of Kalimantan and Sumatra.

4.1.4 Fire and Precipitation Trends in Kalimantan

Kalimantan was divided into the following five regions for the detailed discussion on fire distribution, the annual changes in fire incidence, and fire period on the main island of Kalimantan (“Kalimantan+” in 4.1.2 covers a wider area) using the one by one degree cells. The regions were “South Kalimantan 12”, West- and East- Kalimantan, South 5, and Central 5. The number at the end of the name indicates the number of cells in its region. West- and East- Kalimantan has 16 and 25 cells, respectively. The boundaries of the five regions are shown with white and yellow broken lines in Fig.4-2.

Fig. 4-6. Annual fire occurrence in Kalimantan and MRP, and dry season precipitation in

Palangkaraya (Central Kalimantan)

Fig. 4-6 shows the annual number of fires in the above-mentioned five regions of Kalimantan from 2002 to 2011. The bars by year show, from top to bottom the fire incidence in the South 5, East, West, Central and other areas, and finally in South Kalimantan 12 which includes the H-1 cell with the highest number of fires in the MRP area. The rightmost bar shows the average of the annual fire occurrences. Fig. 4-6 also shows the annual total precipitation of the driest three months from July to September measured at Palangkaraya Airport by using the inversely drawn bars from the top line of Fig. 4-6 illustrate the relationship between fire activity and rainfall.

From Fig. 4-6, the annual average is 23,250 hotspots/yr. The annual averages show that 61% of the fires occurred in the South Kalimantan 12 and South 5, with 57.2 % (13,183 hotspots) and 3.9% (897) respectively. Fires in West Kalimantan accounted for 23.1% (5,314), East Kalimantan for 11.1% (2,567), and Central and others had 5.6 % (1,289) annual fires on average. The average number of fires in the MRP cell, 2,223, very nearly matches the number in all of East Kalimantan, which covers a far larger area (25 cells).

The largest number of fires in the different areas occurred in 2004 in East Kalimantan (5,440 fires); and in 2006 for the other four Kalimantan areas: South Kalimantan12 with 36,101 fires, West Kalimantan with 9,631 fires, South 5 with 2,076 fires, and Central 5 and others with 2,652 fires. In 2006 the ratio of fires reached a very high 66.9% in South Kalimantan12 (including the MRP* cell).


18

The above-mentioned fire activities in Kalimantan could be partially explained by using precipitation measured at Palangkaraya. Fig. 4-6 clearly showed that active fires in 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009 occurred when total precipitation amount of three driest months in Palangkaraya [15] became less than around 100 mm. The largest fires in 2006 mainly due to South Kalimantan12 could be explained by extended drought until October. The precipitation amount for October 2006 was only 12.6 mm and the lowest monthly precipitation for the last 10 years.

The time of occurrence of fires in Kalimantan will be discussed with Fig. 4-7, which shows the average monthly fire incidence in the ten years surveyed. In Fig. 4-7, monthly mean precipitation of the last 10 years in Palangkaraya is also shown with the inversely drawn bars from the top line of Fig. 4-7. Fig.4-7 clearly shows that fires are most common in three months: August, September, and October, similar to the most intense fire period for all of Indonesia (Fig. 4-5). The number of fires in these three months reached 19,895 (7,471 in August, 7,543 in September, and 4,881 in October), 85.5% of the annual hotspot average (23,250 fires).

Throughout Kalimantan, September was the month with the most fires except in West Kalimantan. In South Kalimantan 12 and South 5, the number of fires in September reached a total of 5,320 fires or 70.5% of the total number of fires in this month. In West Kalimantan, the peak was 3,184 fires in August with only 882 fires in September. Fire numbers in the one H-1 (MRP*) cell were larger than in all of East Kalimantan (24 cells). The number of fires in the H-1 (MRP*) cell from August to October were 3,617, 8,931, and 8,064. These numbers clearly show the need to pay more attention to the very large number of fires in MRP* during September and October.

Monthly mean precipitation trends in Fig. 4-7 supported active fires during the driest two months, August and September. Fires in October can be explained by the ground water level. As the average lowest ground water level was observed from the bottom of September to the top of October, peat fires continue to be active even in October (Putra et al., 2011). South Kalimantan 12 and MRP* remarkably showed this fire trend related to the ground water level in Fig. 4-7.

Fig. 4-7. Fire period in Kalimantan and MRP, and monthly mean precipitation in Palangkaraya

(Central Kalimantan) 4.1.5 Fire and Precipitation Trends in Sumatra

Sumatra was divided into the following four regions for the detailed discussion of the fire distribution, the annual changes in fire incidence, and period with the most fires on the main island of


19

Sumatra (“Sumatra +” in 4.1.2 covers a wider area) using one by one degree cells like the discussion for Kalimantan above. Sumatra was divided into four regions because the ten provinces in Sumatra are too small for the analysis using one by one degree cells. The four regions in Sumatra were “South Sumatra 10”, “South Others”, “North Sumatra 10”, and “North Others”, with the numbers at the end of the names showing the number of cells; the number of cells for “South Others” and “North Others” 19 and 20, respectively. The boundaries of the four regions are shown with white and yellow broken lines in Fig. 4-3; Sumatra is divided into two by the equator, and North and South Sumatra will be used here after.

Figure 4-8 shows the annual number of fires in the four regions of Sumatra distinguished above, from 2002 to 2011, the bars for each year show, from top to bottom, the fire incidence in North others, North Sumatra 10, South others, and South Sumatra 10 which includes the H-4 cell with the highest number of fires in the Palembang area. The rightmost two bars show the average of the annual fire occurrences and the annual largest fire occurrence in Kalimantan in 2006.

The inversely drawn two different bars from the top line of Fig. 4-7 shows the annual total precipitation of the driest three months from June to August measured at Jambi (South Sumatra, these are shown by a white circle located in the northeast of “H-4” in Fig. 4-3). The two separated dry months in February and August observed at Pekan Baru (Riau, North Sumatra, and shown by a white circle located in the south of “H-6” in Fig. 4-3).

From Fig. 4-8, the annual average was 21,200 hotspots/yr and just smaller than the 23,250 hotspots/yr in Kalimantan. The annual averages show that 51% of the fires occurred in south Sumatra (South Sumatra 10 and South others) and 49% of the fires occurred in north Sumatra (North Sumatra 10 and North others). Fires in North Sumatra 10 accounted for 41.5% (8,799), South Sumatra 10 for 35.7% (7,578), South others for 15.3% (3,249), and North others for 7.5% (1,581). The number of fires in the Palembang cell is 1,387 and very nearly matches the number in North others, which covers a far larger area (20 cells).

The two years with the most fires in Sumatra occurred in 2005 and 2006 however with very different fire distributions within the island. In 2006, the year with the most fires, the total number of fires reached 41,895 and most occurred in south Sumatra, 71.5%, with 22,675 (54.1%) fires in South Sumatra 10 and 7,269 (17.4%) fires in South others. In 2005, the year with the second largest number of fires, the total number exceeded 31,500, most occurring in north Sumatra, 84.6%, with 23,998 (76.2%) in North Sumatra 10 and 2,640 (8.4%) in North others.

The most right hand bar in Fig. 4-8 allows a direct comparison with the 2006 Kalimantan fire incidence. Comparing the two 2006 bars, both south Kalimantan and south Sumatra show very high fire incidences under the drought conditions due to the El Niño event in that year, 2006. Looking at the two cells, H-1 (MRP*, 5,382 fires in 2006) and H-4 (Palembang, 5,361 fires in 2006) shows that the fire incidences in 2006 here were very similar.

The above-mentioned very high fire incidences in Sumatra could be explained by using precipitation measured at Jambi (south Sumatra) and Pekan Baru (north Sumatra). Figure 4-8 clearly showed two active fire years in 2005 and 2006. In 2005, most fires occurred in North Sumatra 10. On the contrary, most fires occurred in South Sumatra 10 and South Others in 2006. The two different fire trends in 2005 and 2006 may be explained by dry season trends in north and south Sumatra.

The 2005 fires in North Sumatra 10 (north Sumatra) were due to low precipitation in February (39mm, lowest monthly precipitation of latest 9 years from 2002 to 2010) and other dry months. Our analysis showed that the total number of hotspots in North Sumatra 10 in 2005 reached 20,365. The largest monthly number of hotspots was 5,313 in February. The second and third highest numbers were 4,694 in March and 3,183 in August. The 2006 active fires in Jambi (south Sumatra) also may be due to lowest precipitation in the four dry months from July to October (411mm, lowest four months precipitation of latest 9 years from 2002 to 2010).


20

Fig. 4-8. Annual fire occurrence in Sumatra, and dry season precipitations in Jambi (Jambi, south

Sumatra) and Pekan Baru (Riau, north Sumatra)

Fig. 4-9 shows the average monthly fire incidence in the ten years surveyed in Sumatra. The

rightmost bar in Fig. 4-9 shows the September fire occurrence in Kalimantan. Figure 4-9 shows that the times of highest fire incidence in Sumatra is not as clear as was found

in Kalimantan in Fig. 4-7. In Sumatra the highest number of fires in August is not much higher than in other months, the contribution of fires in August is only 21% of the whole year, which is smaller than the 32% in September (the month with most fires) in Kalimantan. In addition, north Sumatra showed a different period with the highest fire incidence. This difference, however, is not as distinct as the high incidence period in south Sumatra. In North Sumatra there are two fire periods, one is in February and March, another is from June to August. The presence of two periods with many fires may explain why 2005 is the year with the second largest number of fires (Fig. 4-8) and why August is the month with the most fires in Sumatra (Fig. 4-9). In south Sumatra, the most fires occurred in August, September, and October, similar to Kalimantan (Fig. 4-7). The above different fire occurrence patterns in north and south Sumatra can be explained by differences in the precipitation patterns in the two areas.

Two different precipitation types for north and south Sumatra are shown using inversed Y- axis and two bar graphs in Fig. 4-9. Two climate zones with two different precipitation patterns in Sumatra had described by Aldrian and Susanto (2003) [21]. The monthly mean precipitation trends in Fig. 4-9 showed that Pekan Baru (north Sumatra) had low precipitation during the months of February, June, and August. Fires in north Sumatra tended to occur mainly in these months. On the other hand, Jambi (south Sumatra) showed only one lowest precipitation month in June but that fires could become active from August to October. This fire trend was similar to south Kalimantan in Fig. 4-7. South Sumatra and south Kalimantan are in the same climate zone. Fire activities from August to October in south Sumatra in Fig. 4-9 were weaker than that of south Kalimantan in Fig. 4-7. This difference may be mainly due to differences in monthly precipitation amount or about 200 mm in south Sumatra and about 100 mm in Kalimantan.


21

Fig. 4-9. Fire period in Sumatra, and monthly mean precipitations in Jambi (Jambi, south Sumatra)

and Pekan Baru (Riau, north Sumatra) 4.2 WEATHER CONDITIONS 4.2.1 Precipitation-Dry Season

In total, 35 accumulated precipitation data points for each year, one for every 10-day interval, were made to identify dry season in Kalimantan. Each precipitation data point was placed at its representative point, such as DN 5, 15, 25, with a starting period of DN = 1 to 9. This data processing (every 10-day interval) was also effective to find fire occurrence before the dry season, because there were not so many daily hotspots at this time. The accumulated precipitation curve derived from accumulated precipitation data was also very useful for recognizing drought conditions.

As mentioned-above in Fig. 2-1, we can see that there are two typical dry seasons. The winter and the summer dry season pattern (WSD for short) in the northern hemisphere, and the summer dry season pattern (SD for short) in the southern hemisphere.

In Fig.4-10, the daily mean precipitations of two different periods are plotted with thick and thin solid lines. The thick line with a solid round mark shows the seasonal change of daily mean precipitation in the recent years of 2002 to 2011. Daily mean precipitation for the recent 10-year interval from 2002 to 2011 was 7.88 mm/day. The thin line shows the seasonal variation of daily mean precipitation for the 34-year period from 1978 to 2011. The 34-year daily mean precipitation is 7.98 mm/day. A smaller value in the daily mean precipitation for the recent 10-year interval implies dryer conditions in recent years. One more curve with a dotted line in Fig.4-10 is a simple smoothed curve for the daily mean precipitation from the 34-year data, and was used to define the dry season.

In this paper, a daily mean precipitation of 5 mm/day was temporally used as a threshold value to define the dry season in Palangkaraya. With this threshold value, the dry season period in Palangkaraya was defined as the 3-months from early July to late September, using the smoothed curve for the 34-year data, as shown in Fig.4-10. Dry season in Palangkaraya is an S pattern. This period coincided with the period with the lowest under ground water level [15]. However, there was about one and half month time lag between the lowest value of precipitation at DN = 230 and the lowest under ground water level at DN = 275. Recent fire activity tended to show a fire peak at around DN = 275. Very low daily mean precipitation (1.52 mm/day) in late September was the lowest daily mean precipitation of the last 34-year. This recent precipitation trend could also support active fires.


22

Fig. 4-10. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 10- and 34-year data from Palangkaraya, Central

Kalimantan

In Fig.4-11, the daily mean precipitations in Sampit are plotted with thick lines with rectangle symbols. Daily mean precipitation in Pontianak was 8.71 mm/day. This value is wetter than that in Palangkaraya, but has the same precipitation pattern (S pattern). With 5 mm/day of threshold value, the dry season period in Sampit was defined from early August to late September (about 2-month), but there was one wet period in mid September (7 mm/day). The driest condition shows in early to mid August, about 2.55 mm/day. Correspondingly, fires occurrence became very active in Sampit.

Fig. 4-11. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 7-year data from Sampit, Central Kalimantan


23

In Fig.4-12, daily mean precipitation in Pontianak from 2001 to 2010 (except 2003 due to data missing) is shown with a thick line with solid diamond symbols. A dotted thin line in Fig.4.12 was a simple smoothed curve for daily mean precipitation. Daily mean precipitation in Pontianak was 7.85 mm/day. This value is almost the same amount as that in Palangkaraya, but Pontianak showed a different precipitation pattern from the pattern of Palangkaraya, as shown in Fig.4-12. Pontianak had two dry periods (using the same definition as in Palangkaraya, daily mean < 5 mm/day), one was from early February to late March, and the other was from early August to mid August. This precipitation pattern or two dry season pattern is also a typical precipitation pattern in Indonesia, found in northern Sumatra [20]. In Pontianak, the winter dry season is relatively longer but wet for two periods in mid February (7 mm/day) and mid March (6 mm/day), as shown in Fig.4-12. Due to this higher precipitation tendency, fires were not so active in the winter dry season. The summer dry season period in Pontianak was only 2/3 month and was shorter than three months in Palangkaraya. However, Pontianak also had a strong dry period (1/3 month with 2 mm/day) in early August. Thus, active fires in Pontianak mainly occurred in the short summer dry season and from early to mid August.

Fig. 4-12. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 9-year data from Pontianak, West Kalimantan

In Fig.4-13, the daily mean precipitations in Samarinda are shown with thick lines with dots symbols. Average precipitation in Pontianak was 6.31 mm/day with the two dry seasons (WS pattern, same as Pontianak). The winter dry season (W) was very short and wet (4.5 mm/day) in mid February. Although the annual fires are not very active, but the worst fires had occurred in February and March 1998 under El Niño conditions [44]. The long S pattern started from late May and lasted in late August. Very low daily mean precipitation (3.15 mm/day) in early August was the wettest dry season among the areas in Kalimantan. It could be explain low rate fire activity. However, only data from Palangkaraya and Pontianak will be used for further analysis and discussion.


24

Fig. 4-13. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 12-year data from Samarinda, East Kalimantan

Precipitation patterns in Sumatra for four weather stations (Medan, Pekan Baru (known as P. Baru), Palembang, Jambi) were calculated using the recent 12-year interval from 2001 to 2012 (see Figs. 4-14~4-17). In total, 35 mean daily precipitation values for every 10-day interval, were calculated for each station, and are shown by the solid lines in the graphs in Figs. 4-14~4-17. Each daily mean precipitation value was placed on its representative point from DN = 5 to DN = 355 within the 10-day interval. In addition, simple smoothed curves (dotted lines) have been added to the graph, representing the daily mean precipitation. With the help of these two lines, we were able to ascertain the dry season period and the low precipitation values during each dry season, for each station.

Fig. 4-14. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 12-year data from Medan, North Sumatra


25

The definition of a dry season period for each area in Sumatra follows previous analysis of Kalimantan, and the daily mean precipitation of 5 mm/day was used as a threshold value for the dry season. By using the line for daily mean precipitation in our graph in Figs. 4-14, 4-15, and 4-16, we can see that threshold value is apparent in Medan (N 3.66°) in the Northern Hemisphere, revealing an approximately two month winter dry season in January and February (WD(2)) and a summer dry season (SD(2)) in June and July. In Palembang (S 2.90°) in the Southern Hemisphere, there was a relatively long dry season, about 4-month SD(4) from June to September, and in P.Baru (N 0.47°) near the Equator, (located between Medan and Palembang, see Fig. 3-3), there was an intermediate dry season, or a one-month quasi-winter dry season with rain (daily mean precipitation in February higher than 5.5 mm/day), and a dry season of about 2-months SD(2) in June and August.

Fig. 4-15. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 12-year data from P. Baru, Riau

The lowest values of daily mean precipitation during the above-mentioned dry seasons were

an indication of fire activities near each weather station. In Medan, the lowest values of daily mean precipitation in WD(2) and SD(2) found in Fig. 4-14 were about 2.1 mm/day in February and 4.3 mm/day in July respectively. In Palembang, the lowest value in Fig. 4-16 was 1.7 mm/day in SD(4) in August. In P. Baru, the lowest value was 3.4 mm/day only one period in each of June and August, as shown in Fig. 4-15. Moreover, the annual mean precipitation of P. Baru (about 3,200 mm) was considerably higher than the amounts of about 2,500 and 2,600 mm from the other two weather stations. Reasons for this were that we could estimate that the heavy precipitation in P. Baru would mainly be due to the effect of the mountain behind the area (see Fig. 3-2).


26

Fig. 4-16. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 12-year data from Palembang, South Sumatra

Finally, Fig. 4-17 showed precipitation data from Jambi (also applied in monthly data for Fig. 4-9) has short and mild S pattern, as in P. Baru in Fig. 4-15. The dry season is long about 4-month from mid May to late September, but intermittent (not stable). Three wet periods (> 5 mm/day) showed in early June, mid July, and late August. However, data from Jambi were not included in detail analysis for simplicity.

Fig. 4-17. Daily mean precipitation patterns using 12-year data from Jambi

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4.2.2 Wind

Using the 10-day average the same as precipitation data, the wind data particularly velocity (speed) and direction analyzed in this chapter. The daily mean wind of two different periods measured at Palangkaraya (100 km from sea-line), Pontianak (25 km from sea-line), Palembang (55 km from sea-line), and Medan (19 km from sea-line), is plotted with thin and solid lines as shown in Figs. 4-18~4-21 respectively. The thin line shows the seasonal changes of daily mean wind for the 15-year for Palangkaraya, the 10-year for Pontianak, the 3-year for each Palembang and Medan. Daily mean wind for the severest fire year in 2006 (Figs. 4-18~4-20) and 2005 (Fig. 4-21) shown by the different colored of the solid line in all of the figures. For ease of comparing the wind conditions in the dry seasons, in Figs. 4-18 ~ 4-21 added a line with an arrow corresponding period of the dry season in every place (see chapter 4.2.1).

Fig. 4-18. Wind velocity (a) and direction (b) data from Palangkaraya, Central Kalimantan

A previous study in the MRP area showed that the wind velocity for Palangkaraya between

2-3 m/s [63]. In Fig. 4-18, daily mean wind velocity for the recent 15-year interval from 1997 to 2012 was 2.3 m/s and had relatively constant pattern. Two small peak of wind velocity showed in mid August and early October and coincided to the summer dry season in Palangkaraya. One sharp peak showed in early October in 2006 with exceeding 4 m/s, and it was the rapidest daily wind velocity during the last 15-year. A strong wind under very dry condition such in 2006 in Palangkaraya maybe partly explains the fire peak for the MRP and its vicinity area [65].

Fig. 4-18b shows the south winds (S) started in late June and lasted in mid October for the last 15-year. This is affected by active prevailing wind of southeast monsoon and usually created dry condition through the southern part of Kalimantan [64]. In 2006, southerly wind was extended to the

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late October as shown in Fig. 4-18b. This condition might be influence long period of low precipitation for Palangkaraya region, but further analysis should be done.

Fig. 4-19. Wind velocity (a) and direction (b) data from Pontianak, West Kalimantan

From Figure 4-19a, a daily wind velocity for 10-year for Pontianak was very same to a value

for Palangkaraya (see Fig. 4-18a). There has not been a significant wind velocity under short dry season (August), although Pontianak located close to the sea line. This result may say that calm and slow moving is one of the typical wind conditions in both Palangkaraya and Pontianak. However, the highest wind velocity in 2006 was about 3 m/s in late May. Other lower peaks also showed in August (~2.6m/s) and September (~2.7 m/s). Both peaks of daily mean wind velocity occurred under the summer dry season. High wind speed can support the fire to spread faster.

As in Palangkaraya, southerly winds (S) dominate from June to September in Pontianak (see fig. 4-19b). This condition may explain that they are in similar weather zones. Nonetheless, the movement of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ)[21] also could be influence Pontianak with two dry seasons. In 2006, there are slight fluctuations in wind direction in Pontianak. The southwest wind (SW) appeared in August and September in the dry season, and tended to have a fairly high speed (see 4-19a).

Fig. 4-20a for Palembang was made similar as Fig. 4-18a for Palangkaraya, but used only three years wind data (2005, 2006, and 2012). Daily mean wind velocity in Palembang was 3.1 m/s. This value is higher than that in Palangkaraya and Pontianak, in Kalimantan. Palembang had two strong wind periods; one was from January to March, and the other one was from July to October as shown in fig. 4-20a. This highest velocity conditions is a typical wind pattern for Sumatra and could be cause some serious foehn wind. It can be partly explained by the mountainous topography in Sumatra, rather the flat condition as in Kalimantan [66]. An extreme peak occurred from late September to early October in 2006 was exceeding 5 m/s. One rectangle above wind velocity curves

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showed peak fire period in 2006 for Palembang. Thus, fires in Palembang area may be more active during that high daily wind velocity period.

Fig. 4-20b showed mostly daily mean wind direction during the dry season was from the southeast (SE). The southeast wind started from May and about one month ahead than the south wind in Palangkaraya (see Fig. 4-18b). This could be partly explaining the earlier onset of the dry season in Palembang (Fig. 4-16). Similar to Palangkaraya, the southeasterly wind direction in 2006 was extended until November under the influence of El Niño.

Fig. 4-20. Wind velocity (a) and direction (b) data from Palembang, South Sumatra

Fig. 4-21a for Medan was made similar as Fig. 4-18a, 4-19a, and 4-20a. Pattern and the

average value of daily wind velocity (~2 m/s) are similar to Pontianak and Palangkaraya than Palembang. However, in Fig. 4-21a, there are several small peaks (2.5 m/s), such as between January and February, and between July and August. The two periods coincide with the winter and summer dry season in Medan. In 2005, two other peaks appear in March and April. Several periods of high daily mean velocity in 2005 can exacerbate the fire condition.

Wind direction under two dry seasons in Medan in Fig 4-21b clearly showed different source. The north (N) and northwest (NW) are more pronounced during the winter, however, the south (S) and the east (E) become noticeable during the summer. The area where positioned beyond N0.5o could be more affected by boreal winter monsoon such in north Sumatra [26]. Then, dominance of the north wind in 2005 was extended until April. This is likely influence the longer dry season as indicated also in the south such as Palangkaraya and Palembang. Thus, the wind is one of the conditions of the weather factors that need to be studied further in the future.

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Fig. 4-21. Wind velocity (a) and direction (b) data from Medan, North Sumatra

4.3 RECENT FIRE TRENDS IN KALIMANTAN 4.3.1 Fire-Prone Area and Peatland

Fire prone areas (>100 hotspots/(yr. cell) = 0.033 hotspots/(yr.km2)) in the recent 10-year interval are highlighted by colors in Fig. 4-22. Many of them are located in the above-mentioned five local regions or coastal peatland areas. Among them, 12 cells showed a very high hotspot density (>0.129 hotspots/km2 = 400 hotspots). They were named H1, H2, H3, etc. in descending order of hotspot density.

The 7 highest hotspot density cells (H1, H2, H3~5, H8, and H9) were located in MRP+ area and covered most of the MRP area. Another two cells (H7 and H12) were in Sampit areas (north and east side of Sampit). The rest of the cells (H6, H10 and H11) were in West Kalimantan. H6 and H10 were in South W.K. and the lowest, H11, was in North W.K. From these distributions, we may say that most fires in Kalimantan are peatland fires because the top 10 highest hotspot density cells are located in the south coastal peatland areas.

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Fig. 4-22. Four provinces, five local areas, and fire-prone areas in Kalimantan, 2002-2011

4.3.2 Annual Rate of Fire Occurrence

The annual fire occurrence in the whole of Kalimantan, the four provinces and the MRP+ region, during the most recent 10-year period (2002-2011), is shown with stacked bars in Fig. 4-23. The unit of the Y-axis in Fig. 4-23 is the number of hotspots. The stacked bar graph in Fig. 4-23 shows the number of fires in the five regions, from top to bottom: East-, West-, South-, Central-Kalimantan, and MRP+. Here, note that the number of hotspots in South Kalimantan is smaller than the actual number because almost half of the area (analysis cells) of the western part of South Kalimantan belongs to the MRP+ region (Central Kalimantan) in this paper. To denote this meaning, we put “–” after name of South Kalimantan, as “South– K”.

The annual mean numbers of fires in the above regions are shown in the rightmost bar on the bottom line of Fig. 4-23, to the right of the bar for 2011. The annual mean bar graph in Fig. 4-23 showed that the mean number of hotspots in Kalimantan is about 22,900 hotspots/yr., 29.6% of the fires occurred in MRP+, 62.7% of the fires occurred in Central Kalimantan and South–Kalimantan, and 30.8% of the fires occurred in (three regions of) West Kalimantan. Although East Kalimantan Province has the largest land area of the four provinces, there were not many fires here in recent years, as shown in Fig. 4-23. We should, however, note that East Kalimantan experienced severe fires under drought conditions in February and March of 1998 under strong El Niño conditions [44].

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Fig. 4-23. Annual fire occurrence and monthly mean precipitation during August-September in

Palangkaraya

Fire activity of each year in Fig. 4-23 clearly shows: the number of hotspots in the 10-year period varied by a factor of about 13.5 between the year with the most fires, 54,000 in 2006, and the year with the fewest, 4,000 fires in 2010. Since fire activity in 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2009 was higher than average, we may refer to them as “severe fire years (>30,000 hotspots).” Similarly, we call the three years 2003, 2005, and 2011, “average fire years (approximately average number of hotspots)” and the other three years 2007, 2008, and 2010, are referred to as “weak fire years (< 10,000 hotspots)”. The bar graph of the severest fire year, 2006, in Fig. 4-23 showed: the number of hotspots in Kalimantan is about 53,500 hotspots/yr., 33.1% of the fires occurred in Sampit, 65.9% of the fires occurred in Central Kalimantan and South–Kalimantan, and 25.8% of the fires occurred in West Kalimantan.

To explain the different fire activities for each year, the monthly mean precipitation of the driest two months from August to September measured at Palangkaraya Airport were added, using the inversely drawn bars from the top line of Fig. 4-23. We could easily identify that there was a negative correlation between the number of hotspots (fire activity) and amount of precipitation. 4.3.3 Average Seasonal Fire Occurrence

A previous study by Yulianti et al. (2012) [67] has already shown that fires in Kalimantan were most common in the months of August, September, and October. About 85.5% of the annual hotspot was observed during these three months from August to October. To understand seasonal fire occurrence tendency in detail for various areas in Kalimantan, the same analysis method using 10-day periods in the previous section on the “Dry season” was also applied here.

From Fig.4-24, we can say that a severe fire season (severe fire: >100 hotspots/(day)) in the whole of Kalimantan starts from early August and lasts until early November. A fire peak in late August for the whole of Kalimantan is made by the contribution of active fires in West and Central Kalimantan. The fire season in each of the four provinces in Kalimantan can also be identified from Fig. 4-24.

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The two provinces of Central and West Kalimantan show different severe fire periods. The fire season in West Kalimantan started in early August and lasted until early September (>50 hotspots/(day)). There was a fire peak in mid to late August (about 136 hotspots/(day)). The fire season in West Kalimantan almost coincided with the dry season in August in Pontianak (see Fig. 4-12). Relatively, high fire occurrence (22–45 hotspots/(day)) in mid September until mid October mainly occurred in the south region of West Kalimantan.

Fires were most severe in Central Kalimantan. The fire season in Central Kalimantan starts in mid August and lasts until early November. A severe fire plateau (>130 hotspots/(day)) formed in late August and lasted until mid October. The fire season did not coincide with the dry season from July to September in Palangkaraya (see Fig. 4-10); rather there was one-month difference between the dry season and the fire season. The reason for the one-month difference could be explained by the underground water level, as previously explained by our research group [15].

Fig. 4-24. Average seasonal fire occurrence tendencies in Kalimantan

4.3.4 Summary of Recent Fire and El Niño

To find the relationship between fires (hotspots) and weather conditions, Table 4-1 was made in descending order of the number of hotspots (150-day (DN = 150–299) roughly from June to October) of each year. We used NOAA definition of El Niño and La Niña events and their SST Anomaly values listed in the middle of Table 4-1 [60]. Daily mean precipitation values for Palangkaraya and Pontianak were calculated based on daily precipitation values during 150-days from DN = 150. The average values of the two places are also listed in Table 4-1, because this could show dry conditions in West and Central Kalimantan.

Strong positive relationship (R2=83.55%) is found between the number of hotspot in dry season and ONI values for the last 10-year (Fig. 4.25). From Table 4-1, severe fire years, 2002, 2004, 2006, and 2009, had more than 30,000 hotspots under the dry conditions arising from the El Niño event with ONI (Ocean Niño index) values in NDJ greater than +0.7. We could also easily identify a negative correlation between the number of hotspots (fire activity) and the daily mean precipitation values, especially the average value of the two places in Table 4-1. On the contrary, under Moderate La Niña events or wet conditions, fire activity became very weak (<10,000 hotspots). This may be explained mostly by ONI values in NDJ less than -1.0 except 2008 had -0.8, as in Fig. 4-25.

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Fig. 4-25. Correlation between number of hotspots in dry season and average ONI in NDJ, 2002-2011

Table 4-1. Fire occurrence and weather conditions in the last ten years (2002–2011)

Rank by

hotspot

Year

Sum of num.hotspots

in Kalimantan

Jun.-Oct (DN:150-

299)

Weather conditions

ENSO Daily mean precipitation (150 days:Jun.-Oct.) mm

El Niño La Niña

Running 3-month mean ONI values

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2

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raya

(B) Pontianak

1 2006 43,383 Weak El Niñoa 1.0 2.4 2.0 2.8

2 2002 41,730 Moderate El Niñoa 1.3 2.9 2.1 3.7

3 2009 34,078 Moderate El Niñoa 1.6 3.6 2.0 5.2

4 2004 30,801 Weak El Niñoa 0.7 4.7 3.0 6.3

5 2003 15,492 - 0.3 - 3.6 -

6 2011 14,146 Weak La Niñaa -1.0 4.8 4.5 5.0

7 2005 11,699 Weak La Niñaa -0.8 6.6 2.2 11.0

8 2007 7,478 Moderate La Niñaa -1.4 10.1 11.5 8.6

9 2008 4,722 - -0.7 7.6 4.8 10.3

10 2010 2,136 Strong La Niñaa -1.5 12.7 13.8 11.6

Average 20,567 -0.1 6.2 5.0 7.2 aDefined by NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) bONI (Ocean Niño Index), NDJ- November, December, & January

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4.3.5 Seasonal and Spatial Fire Occurrence under El Niño Conditions

To understand seasonal fire activity, a total of 15 of 10-day seasons from early June (DN = 150) to late October were used, except for 2006 when a total of 17 seasons were used, until mid November. Daily MODIS hotspot and precipitation data were accumulated every 10-day from early June to evaluate fire activity and rainfall conditions in individual seasons from early June to late October. The accumulated number of hotspots for every 10-day was then divided by 10 (days) to show the average daily fire occurrence for each of the seasons. On the other hand, the accumulated precipitation values for every 10-day was accumulated again from early June to late October to make a so-called accumulated precipitation curve. Checking the slope of the accumulated precipitation curves could easily recognize dry conditions or droughts.

A total of six areas located in Central, East and West Kalimantan (W.K. for short here after) were selected to understand spatial fire activity during the 15 seasons. The three areas in W.K. were North, Interior and South W.K. The two areas in Central Kalimantan were MRP+ (including the western part of the South Kalimantan province) and Sampit. The last one was East Kalimantan province. “South- Kalimantan” and “Interior Central Kalimantan” are not included in the following analysis, for simplicity, as the number of hotspots for both places were relatively small, and to avoid misunderstanding the result for “South Kalimantan” (only the eastern part of South Kalimantan Province).

In Table 4-2, fire activities in six areas of each El Niño year are summarized using the total number of hotspots during the 150 days from early June to late October, except for 2006 where 170 days until mid November are used. From Table 4-2, 2006 was the severest fire year for most areas except North W.K. and East Kalimantan. MRP+ has the largest number of hotspots. Sampit followed MRP+, but there was 3.45 times difference between 17,421 in 2006 and 5,052 in 2009. After these two areas, South W.K. followed them. These three areas of MRP+, Sampit and South W.K. cover most of the coastal peatland in Kalimantan and were responsible for about 70% of hotspots on average.

Table 4-2. Summary of fire activities (hotspot) in six areas under El Niño conditions

Rank Year/ Period

Central Kalimantan West Kalimantan East Kalimantan MRP+ Sampit North South Int.

1 2006 Jun.-Nov. 13,191 17,421 3,543 5,982 3,865 3,667

2 2002 Jun.-Nov. 13,105 11,137 2,715 4,555 3,699 3,884

3 2009 Jun.-Nov. 11,486 5,052 4,142 4,221 3,234 3,042

4 2004 Jun.-Nov. 8,031 6,816 1,824 2,937 3,538 4,208

Sum 45,813 40,426 12,224 17,695 14,336 14,801 Percentage (%) 31.5 27.8 8.4 12.2 9.9 10.2 4.3.5.1 Fire occurrence in 2009

Seasonal fire occurrences in the above-mentioned six areas located in Central, East, and W.K. are shown in Fig. 4-26 using different lines with different symbols. The average daily number of hotspots in every 10-day season from early June (DN = 150) was used here to identify fire seasons and to discuss the relationship with precipitation values. The spatial distribution of the six areas in Fig. 4-26 can be found in Fig. 4-22. The accumulated precipitation in every 10-day season from early June is also shown in Fig.4-26, by inverting the Y-axis. The two curves found in the top part of Fig. 4-26 are made from precipitation data measured at Palangkaraya and from Pontianak data, as in Fig. 4-10 & 4-12. Units for the Y-axis and inversed Y-axis in Fig. 4-26 were hotspots/day (average daily number of hotspots) and mm for accumulated precipitation from DN = 150 respectively. From these accumulated


36

precipitation curves for Palangkaraya and Pontianak, the drought period could easily be found by checking the horizontal gradient of the accumulated curve. Thus, accumulated precipitation curves could explain fire activity in the MRP+ area and North W.K. From this weather point of view, hotspot curves for the MRP+ area and North W.K. were illustrated using thick lines and two different symbols (■ for MRP+, ▲ for North W.K.) in Fig. 4-26.

Firstly, this study selected 2009 because it was the third severest fire year for MRP+ and the fourth severest fire year for North W.K. (West Kalimantan), but both areas had highest daily number of hotspots, with 297 hotspots/day in MRP+ in late September and 150 hotspots/day in North W.K in early August. The severest fire occurrence among the El Niño years of 2002, 2004, 2006 and 2009 could be partially explained by the long duration of the drought conditions, which started in early July, and the lowest accumulated rainfall by late September, of 100 mm (see Fig. 4-26).

The fire peak for North W.K. in 2009 was short, only in early August with a daily average fire occurrence of about 150 hotspots/day (the highest peak of the recent decade). This fire peak occurred just after the short drought from early July and coincided with the dry season in North W.K. (see Figs. 4-12 and 4-26). After this peak, the number of hotspots decreased to 67 hotspots/day and the precipitation to less than 10 mm/day during early and mid August. A fire peak for interior W.K. was also found in early August, with about 110 hotspots/day, but only lasted until mid August. South W.K. showed a different trend compared to the other two areas in W.K. Namely, South W.K. had a small fire peak in mid September with about 90 hotspots/day but the fire period was more than two months, from early August to early October. This longer fire period indicates that the precipitation pattern for South W.K. could be different from that of other areas in North and Interior W.K.

Fig. 4-26. Seasonal fire occurrence and accumulated precipitation from June in 2009

The fire peak and period for the MRP+ area were quite different from those in the three areas

in W.K. In 2009, a fire peak for MRP+ appeared in late September with about 300 hotspots/day (the highest peak of the recent decade) as in Figs. 4-26 and 4-27. Long drought conditions from around early July may make this a severe fire condition, when a very dry thick layer of peat arose from the rainless conditions. A severe fire period with more than 100 hotspots/day lasted one and 1/3 month, from early September to early October. The fire trend in Sampit area was almost the same, but the fires were not as active as those of MRP+. A fire peak for Sampit occurred in early October with only about 120 hotspots/day. However, Sampit area had the largest fire peak (around 420 hotspots/day, the


37

highest peak of the last decade in the whole of Kalimantan) in mid October in 2006. This unique trend in Sampit suggests that the Sampit area may belong to another precipitation or climate zone, as showed in Fig. 4-11.

To fight against these severe fires in MRP+ and W.K. areas, we would like to highlight the small number of fires in June and July as shown in Fig. 4-26. In North W.K, fires (around 20 hotspots/day) already started in early and mid- June. Fires from late July (around 30 hotspots/day) could make the highest peak for North W.K, as shown in Fig. 4-31c. In MRP+ area, fires indicated by around 30 hotspots/day were observed in mid July. Such pre-dry and early season fires may reflect peat and vegetation conditions as fuel for a fire. In other words, a peat and vegetation fire could only start by consuming dry peat and dry vegetation. We should thus pay more attention to these pre-dry and early dry season fires. It could provide a means of fire prevention against Kalimantan fires. We would like to call them "caution fires" to promote the idea of developing new measures against severe peat fires.

Fig. 4-27. Large hotspots (fire, red dot) and haze occurrences in southern Kalimantan captured by

NASA MODIS in 23 September 2009

4.3.5.2 Fire occurrence in 2006

2006 was the severest fire year for most areas except for North W.K. and East Kalimantan. Sampit showed the highest total number of hotspots, at 17,421 during the 170-days from June to November, as shown in Table 4-2. In addition, Sampit had highest two daily numbers of hotspots, 418 in mid October and 398 hotspots/day in early November. To analyze seasonal fire occurrence in 2006, Fig. 4-28 shows fire activity from early June to mid November, with a similar figure format to Fig. 4-26.

The two accumulated precipitation curves in the top part of Fig. 4-28 show the longest drought condition, more than 4-months from early July to mid November in Palangkaraya (MRP+) and lowest


38

accumulated rainfall values of 200 mm in early September in Pontianak (North W.K.). This means that both areas were drier than other years, which resulted in the worst fire damage.

The fire peak for North W.K. in 2006 was short, only in mid August with a daily average fire occurrence of about 140 hotspots/day (second highest peak of the recent decade). This fire peak occurred during the drought from late July and coincided with the dry season in North W.K. (see Fig. 4-12 & 4-28). After this peak, the number of hotspots decreased to 20 hotspots/day under drought conditions. This makes us consider another factor, in addition to precipitation, to explain fire activity. A fire peak for interior W.K. was also found in mid August with about 160 hotspots/day (highest peak of the recent decade). After this peak, the number of hotspots decreased to 65 hotspots/day. South W.K. showed two fire periods with around 100 hotspots/day. The first fire period was from mid August to early September. The second one was from early to mid October. The small number of hotspots in mid September can be partially explained by about 15 mm/day precipitation from early September observed in Pontianak.

The fire peak and period for MRP+ and Sampit area were quite different from other three areas in W.K. In 2006, the fire peak for MRP+ appeared in early October with about 260 hotspots/day (the second highest peak of the recent decade). The long duration of drought conditions from around mid July may make this a severe fire condition. A fire peak shift from late September in 2009 to early October in 2006 (1/3 month difference) could be partially explained by the shift of the onset of drought from early July in 2009 to mid July in 2006 (1/3 month difference). In addition, a small number of hotspots (about 60 hotspots/day) in mid September could be explained by the above-mentioned September precipitation in Pontianak or the wet conditions.


In a similar manner, precipitation trends may explain Sampit’s highest fire peak in mid

October in 2006. It is notable that there was large difference between the final values of the accumulated precipitation curves for Pontianak in Figs. 4-26 and 4-28, showing around 80 mm (totally 800 mm rainfall from DN = 150) and around 43 mm (to-tally 430 mm rainfall from DN = 150) in 2009 and 2006, respectively. On the other hand, precipitation curves for Palangkaraya in Figs. 4-26 & 4-28 showed around 30 mm (totally 300 mm rainfall from DN = 150). These lower precipitation or longer drought conditions in both Pontianak and Palangkaraya suggest that the dry area in 2006 was wider than that in 2009. These precipitation conditions could explain why there was more severe fire


39

activity in 2006, including fires in Sampit. Under the very dry conditions in 2006, Sampit fires lasted until early November.

In 2006, caution fires for North W.K. could also be found in mid July, as shown in Fig. 4-28. Caution (warning) fires for MRP+ were not so clear due to the delayed onset of the drought (from around early July). However, caution fires could still be found in mid and late August. 4.3.5.3 Fire occurrence in 2002

2002 was second severest fire year, and the number of hotspots in each area was almost same as the numbers in 2006, except for Sampit (36% down from 2006). To analyze seasonal fire occurrence in 2002, Fig. 4-29 was prepared with a similar figure format to Fig. 4-28. The two accumulated precipitation curves in the top part of Fig. 4-29 show the long duration of drought conditions for more than three-months from around late June to early October in Palangkaraya (MRP+), and the second lowest accumulated rainfall values of 337 mm in early September in Pontianak (North W.K.). Under these dry conditions, second only to 2006, five areas (excluding North W.K.) had the second severest fires, after only 2006 (see the numbers of hotspots in Table 4-2).


4.3.5.4 Fire occurrence in 2004

2004 was the fourth severest fire year, under weak El Niño conditions. To discuss seasonal fire occurrence in 2004, Fig. 4-30 was prepared with a similar figure format to Figs. 4-26, 4-28 and 4-29. Two accumulated precipitation curves in the top part of Fig. 4-30 show the July rainfall, 196 mm for Palangkaraya (MRP+) and 334 mm for Pontianak (North W.K.). After these rainfalls, drought conditions started from late June and active fires began in late August, as shown in Fig. 4-30. However, rainfall from late August until mid September reached 76 mm for Palangkaraya and 93 mm for Pontianak. After these rainfalls, the drought condition restarted in MRP+ area and fires became active again. MRP+ had a severe fire peak, 200 hotspots/day, in mid October. On the other hand, North W.K. had an additional 190 mm rain from mid September and fires became very rare.


40


3.3.6 Typical Fire Distributions in El Niño Years

In Fig. 4-31, three typical fire distributions in El Niño years are shown. Fig. 4-31a shows the fire distribution during the severest fire period in mid October (DN = 280–289) in 2006, Fig. 4-31b shows the distribution of fires in August (dry season for north area of W.K.): early August (DN = 210–219) in 2009, and Fig. 4-31c shows the fire distribution in the pre-dry season (caution fires): late July (DN = 200–209) in 2009.

Sampit area suffered from the severest fires (total number of hotspots exceeded more than 17,000) in the most recent 10-years (2002~2011). Seasonal fire peaks appeared in mid October under the long drought condition from early July (see Fig. 4-28). The total number of hotspots in mid October was 4,178 (418 hotspots/day) and the distribution is shown in Fig. 4-31(a). From Fig. 4-31a, we note that most fires were distributed along the coastal peatland in southern Kalimantan. These severe fires on peatland in Central Kalimantan during the last period of the dry season could become very active due to the very low level of ground water, as explained by Putra and Hayasaka (2011) [15]. In 2006, drought conditions lasted for more than 4-months from mid July to early November. Under these long-lasting dry conditions, peat fires could continue by smoldering under the ground or in peat layer. Thus, peat fire cannot be suppressed as described in Usup et al (2004) [40]. 2006 fires were a good example because they showed us that peat fires could remain active until heavy rain comes or even until November.

Typical dry season fires for West Kalimantan (including North, Interior, and South W.K.) occurred early in August (DN = 210–219) in 2009 (see Fig. 4-26). The total number of hotspots in early August was 3,094 and they were distributed like in Fig. 4-31b. From Fig. 4-31(b), you can see a high density of fires on coastal and interior peatland, and in mountain areas (deforestation fires) along the border with Malaysia. Fires in MRP+ already became active from early August.

Pre-dry and early dry season fires in late July were plotted with a dot in Fig. 4-31c (see also Fig. 4-26). From Fig. 4-31c, it is clear that most fires were located on coastal peatland areas in W.K., the inland peatland area in Interior W.K., and in the MRP+ area (see Fig. 4-22).


41

Fig. 4-31. Three typical fire distributions in Kalimantan. (a) Typical severe fire distribution in mid October (2006); (b) Typical West Kalimantan fire distribution in early August (2009); (c) Typical pre-

dry season (caution) fire distribution in late July (2009)

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4.4 RECENT FIRE TRENDS IN SUMATRA 4.4.1 Fire-Prone Area and Peatland

Fire prone areas (>100 hotspots/(yr. cell) in the most recent 11-year period (2002 to 2012) are highlighted using different colors in Fig. 4-32. Most of these areas are located on the eastern side of Sumatra, but some are in the northern part. There were 12 cells showing a very high hotspot density (>400 hotspots/(yr. cell) = 0.129 hotspots/(yr. km2)). These cells were named H1, H2,…, H12, in descending order of hotspot density. The 7 highest hotspot density cells (H1~4, H8, H11 and H12), located in the Dumai region or Dumai+14p (Dumai4p: H1, H3, H4, and H12), cover most of the northeast coast peatland in N. Sumatra (Riau Province). According to the peatland map [57], the Dumai region contains a peat layer that is relatively deeper (~8 mm) than other places in S. Sumatra and Kalimantan (except the MRP area). It is of note that Dumai+14p belongs to a different climate zone than most of S. Sumatra and Kalimantan (see Figs. 4-14 and 4-32).

The seventh highest cell, H7, is located on the eastern side in Pekan Baru (capital of Riau Province) near the Equator and on the coast. The other highest cells, H5, H6, H9, and H10, are located in the region of S. Sumatra. H5 and H6 are located on the eastern side at Palembang (capital of the South Sumatran Province), and two cells in Palembang6p. H9 in the south in Pekan Baru, and H10 in southeast Jambi are two cells included in Jambi+7p (see Fig. 4-32).

From the distribution of these highest hotspot cells, it is evident that the most recent fires in Sumatra have occurred mainly on the coastal peatland. Many of the fires on peatland can be explained by the history of development as in the MRP area of Kalimantan [68]. The areas with dense hotspots of the MRP area were related to high human activity with deforestation, slash and burn clearing, and plantations [67].

Fig. 4-32. Map of the 12-highest hotspot cells, fire prone cells, and peatland in Sumatra

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43

4.4.2 Annual and Average Seasonal Fire Occurrence in N. Sumatra

The stacked bar graph in Figure 4 shows the number of fires that have occurred in three regions in N. Sumatra (from bottom to top: Dumai+14, P. Baru+12p, and North Others 79). The annual mean numbers of fires in these three regions and those in S. Sumatra, (and the annual fire in Kalimantan), are shown in the two bars on the far right in Fig. 4-33. The unit of the Y-axis is the number of hotspots in each region.

The annual mean number of hotspots in N. Sumatra over the past 10-years was about 8,600, and 60% of these fires occurred in peatland areas (Dumai+14p and P. Baru+12p). A comparison of the two bars in Fig. 4-33, shows that the number of fires in 2005, (about 27,000 hotspots/yr.), is larger than the average number in Kalimantan (23,000 hotspots/yr.). About 80% of the extreme fires in 2005 occurred mainly in peatland in the Dumai and P. Baru regions; areas responsible for approximately 16,000 and 5,400 fires (60.3% and 20.4%) respectively. Fire occurrences in both peatland areas were 4.2 times larger than in the North Others 79, which is predominantly non-peatland.

The occurrence of fires in most years (6 out of the 10 years) in N. Sumatra was in the range of +1σ to -1σ. The variance of fire occurrence (V) of about (3,900)2 was smaller than that of about (16,000)2 in Kalimantan. This relatively stable fire occurrence in N. Sumatra may suggest that the occurrence of so-called routine fires on plantations and developed land are not so strongly related to the weather conditions, and the yearly fire occurrences could be related to agriculture activities such as agricultural residue burning. Small-sized fire occurrence could, therefore, imply that large land clearing or deforestation activities are no longer taking place in N. Sumatra.

The extreme fire occurrences in Dumai+14p in 2005 was an exceptional case, and the main cause of these severe fires was due to the expansion of fires lit for land clearing and agricultural activities. On inspection of weather data measured at Medan, (located about 400 km northeast of Dumai), these fires may also have occurred during severe drought conditions. In Medan, the drought lasted for about two months, from mid-January to mid-March in 2005, and overlapped with the dry season in N. Sumatra.

Fig. 4-33. Recent trends in annual fire occurrence in N. Sumatra

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In this paper, to clarify the average seasonal fire occurrence tendency in N. Sumatra, the

average number of hotspots every 10-days (1/3-month) were calculated. In doing so, one active fire area named “Dumai 4p” was extracted from a part of Dumai+14p, to illustrate the seasonal fire occurrence clearly.

From Fig. 4-34, it can be seen that the seasonal fire occurrence trend in N. Sumatra displays two major fire seasons: one fire peak in February and one in March, and another from May to August. Such seasonal fire peaks can be partially explained by the two precipitation patterns and the dry season periods for Medan (N 3.5°) and P. Baru (N 0.5°) in Figs. 4-14 and 4-15. We have observed that, firstly, the winter fire peak in February (in Fig. 4-34) is mainly due to fires occurring in Dumai 4p (N 1.8°) and P. Baru+12p. These fires correspond to the winter dry seasons WD found in Figs. 4-14 and 4-15. The highest fire peak for Dumai 4p (mid-February) corresponds to the lowest daily mean precipitation (about 2 mm/day) in Fig. 4-14. Secondly, the early summer peak in June in Fig. 4-34 is mainly due to fires occurring in North Others 79 and Dumai+ 14p. These fires can be mainly explained by the summer dry season in P. Baru in Fig. 4-15, because the low latitude 32 cells (<N 2.5) in North Others 79 are responsible for about 80% of the fires, and these cells have a similar rainfall pattern to P. Baru. Thus, most fires in N. Sumatra tend to occur under a rainfall condition of about 3.5 mm/day in mid-June, as seen in Fig. 4-15. Thirdly, the highest fire peak in the whole of N. Sumatra occurs in early August. This peak in August is mainly due to the increased number of fires in P. Baru under the lowest daily rainfall of about 3.5 mm/day. Such a tendency may, therefore, imply the occurrence of peat fires in P. Baru+.

Fig. 4-34. Recent trends of average seasonal fire occurrence in N. Sumatra

4.4.3 Annual and Average Seasonal Fire Occurrence in S. Sumatra

The annual mean number of fires in S. Sumatra is shown in Fig. 4-35 (using a similar graph format to Fig. 4-33). The stacked bar graph in Figure 6 shows the number of fires in three regions in S. Sumatra, from bottom to top: Palembang+ (16p), Jambi+ (7p), and South Others 72. The annual mean number of fires in the three regions (excluding 2006) in S. Sumatra, and the annual number of fires in Kalimantan are shown by the two bars on the far right in Fig. 4-35.

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Fig. 4-35. Recent trends in annual fire occurrence in S. Sumatra

The annual mean number of hotspots in S. Sumatra during the last 10-years was about 8,900,

and, approximately, 47% of the fires occurred in peatland areas (Palembang+ and Jambi+). Fire data from 2006 were excluded from the statistics calculation, due to severe fire occurrence (+5.3σ, +2.6σ if the data from 2006 are included) under the drought enhanced by El Niño in 2006. A comparison of the two bars in Figure 6, shows that the number of fires in 2006, (about 29,000 hotspots/yr.), was larger than that of the average number in Kalimantan (23,000 hotspots/yr.). About 57% of these extreme fires in 2006 occurred mainly in peatland areas in the Palembang+ and Jambi+ regions, which are responsible for around 13,300 and 3,300 fires (45.5% and 11.4%), respectively. The occurrence of fires in both these peatland areas was 1.3 times larger than that in South Others (mostly non-peatland).

The fire occurrence in the majority of years in S. Sumatra, (6 out of the 10 years), was within the range of +1σ to -1σ and the variance of fire occurrence (V) of an area of around (7,200)2 was smaller than that of an area of about (16,000)2 in Kalimantan, but larger than that of an area of about (5,900)2 in N. Sumatra. The relatively stable fire occurrence in S. Sumatra may also suggest that continual and small-size fire occurrences are not strongly related to weather conditions, as in N. Sumatra. It is evident that the occurrence of small fires in heavy rain conditions during 2010 could have made the variance of fire occurrence in S. Sumatra larger than that in N. Sumatra.

The extreme fire occurrence in Palembang+ in 2006 was an exceptional case and the main cause of these severe fires was due to an expansion of fires for land clearing and agricultural activities, and which occurred under severe drought conditions lasting three months from early August to late October in 2006, and which overlapped with the dry season in S. Sumatra.

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46

Fig. 4-36. Recent trends of average seasonal fire occurrence in S. Sumatra

Fig. 4-36 is similar to that of Fig. 4-34 for N. Sumatra, and was used to clarify the average

seasonal fire occurrence tendency in S. Sumatra. By using this graph, one fire active area named “Palembang 6p,” was defined and extracted from one part of Palembang+16p, to clearly illustrate the seasonal fire occurrence.

From Fig. 4-36, the trends of seasonal fire occurrence in S. Sumatra show one fire season from May to late October, with a few peaks in September. This one-fire-season pattern in S. Sumatra almost corresponds to the one-summer-dry-season pattern in Fig. 4-16. The difference in the fire peak in September of about one month in Fig.4-36 and the low of precipitation in August in Fig. 4-16 can be estimated using the author’s previous research related to Kalimantan, where we found there was a time lag of approximately one month between precipitation and a rising ground water level [15]. This result was obtained from measurement results in peatland in Block C, the MRP, in Central Kalimantan [69].

From Fig. 4-36 the highest peak can be seen in late September for all three regions in S. Sumatra. Palembang 6p had the same values as the MRP area in Central Kalimantan, [65]. This could suggest that peat fires in S. Sumatra and south Kalimantan occur under a similar weather condition created by the southern monsoon during the summer months (between May and October). 4.4.4 Summary of Recent Severe Fire and Two Types of El Niño

To find the relationship between severe fires (> +1σ in Fig. 4-33) and weather conditions for N. Sumatra, Table 4-3 made in descending order of the number of hotspots (roughly from February and June). We used the NOAA and JAMSTEC to define the type of El Niño events. Their indexes of SST Anomaly values listed in the middle of Table 4-3 [60, 61]. Daily mean precipitation values for Medan and P. Baru were calculated based on daily precipitation values during 60-days (DN = 31-90) and 90 days (DN = 151-240). The average values of the two places are also listed in Table 4-3 because this could be partly show dry condition in N. Sumatra.

The extreme in N. Sumatra, 2005, had more than 10,000 hotspot between February and March fire year under the dry condition arising from the El Niño Modoki event, and has EMI values of +0.5. Under Moderate and Weak El Niño, mostly fire in N. Sumatra occurred in the period of June-August in 2006 and 2009 respectively. We could be easily find a negative correlation between the number of hotspots (fire activity) and the daily mean precipitation values in February-March and June-August, especially the average value of two places in Table 4-3.

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Table 4-3. Summary of severe fire activities (hotspot) and weather conditions in N. Sumatra

Rank Year Period

Sum of Num. Hotspots Weather Conditions

in north Sumatra ENSO Daily Mean Precipitation mm

6-month

Mean 3-month

Mean Peatland Area N.

Others

EMI ONI Average (A) (B)

Dumai+ P. Baru+

El Niño In ONDJFMa in NDJb (A)+(B)/

2 Med. P. Baru

1 2005 Feb.-Mar. (WD) 8,026 3,861 750 Modoki

0.5 -0.80 2.7 1.8 3.5

Jun.-Aug. (SD) 5,139 580 3,500 6.6 4.4 8.8 2 2009 Feb.-Mar. (WD) 796 217 419

Moderate -0.6 1.60 9.5 7.3 11.7

Jun.-Aug. (SD) 2,791 1,672 2,518 5.8 5.4 6.1

3 2006 Feb.-Mar. (WD) 2,062 784 501 Weak -0.08 1.00 4.4 4.2 4.6

Jun.-Aug. (SD) 2,724 1,394 3,271 5.4 5.6 5.1 Average Feb.-Mar. 3,628 1,620 557

-0.06 0.84 5.5 4.4 6.6 Average Jun.-Aug. 3,551 1,215 3,096 5.9 5.1 6.6

aEMI (ENSO Modoki Index), ONDJFM-October-March bONI (Ocean Niño Index), NDJ- November, December, & January

In a similar manner with Table 4-3, Table 4-4 made in descending order of the number of hotspots ((150-day (DN = 151–300) roughly from June to October) of 2004, 2006, and 2012 (> +1σ in Fig. 4-35). We also used NOAA definition of El Niño and their SST Anomaly values listed in the middle of Table 4-4 [60]. Daily mean precipitation values for Palembang calculated based on daily precipitation values the same as Kalimantan in Table 4-1.

The extreme fire in S. Sumatra, 2006 occurred under the dry condition arising from the El Niño event, arising from ONI values of +1. However, there was one severe fire year, in 2012 occurred under the dry condition arising from the normal conditions with ONI of -0.3 (after La Niña event). It could be explained partially by low daily mean precipitation values in Table 4-4.

Table 4-4. Summary of severe fire activities (hotspot) and weather conditions in S. Sumatra

Rank Year Period

Sum of Num. Hotspots Weather Conditions in south Sumatra ENSO Daily Mean Precipitation

Peatland Area S. Others 3-month mean (150 days: Jun.-Oct.) mm Palembang+ Jambi+ El Niño ONI values in NDJ Palembang

1 2006 Jun.-Oct. 11,883 3,056 11,680 Weak 1.0 2.1

3 2012 Jun.-Oct. 4,177 1,581 4,752 - -0.3 2.8

2 2004 Jun.-Oct. 4,316 2,919 4,586 Weak 0.7 4.0 Average 6,792 2,519 7,006 0.5 2.9

4.4.5 Recent Extreme Fire Occurrence in Sumatra 4.4.5.1 Highest hotspot cell in Sumatra

Extreme fire occurrences were observed in both N. and S. Sumatra in 2005 and 2006 respectively. The cells with the top 12 highest hotspot densities ( >400 hotspots/yr.) in Figure 3 were mainly due to the occurrence of these extreme fires. The top four highest hotspot cells from H1 to H4 are located near Dumai, and two cells of H5 and H6 are near Palembang. A comparison of the seven highest cells from the top 12 highest hotspot density cells in Kalimantan [65], are listed in Table 4-5.

From Table 4-5, the fires in H1 near Dumai could be referred to as “extreme” fires, because the average and maximum number of hotspots in H1, were 941 and 4,494, respectively. The average number in H1 was almost the same as the value of 971 in the H1k cell in Kalimantan. However, the greatest value in H1 (4,494) was the highest overall. SD values of 2.77 - 2.94 for the four highest cells in Sumatra were higher than those values (1.45 - 2.4) in Kalimantan (seen in Table 4-5). These differences could imply that the extreme fires in Sumatra with higher SDs were incidental fires. In contrast, the extreme fires in Kalimantan with lower SDs were routine fires lit for the purpose of


48

development. The seasonal occurrence of these extreme fires in Sumatra is discussed in the sections below.

Table 4-5. Comparison of major highest hotspot cells in Sumatra and Kalimantan

Rank Ave.* Max. SD (σ) for Max. Year for Max. Region

Sumatra

H1 941 4,494 2.94 2005 Dumai 4p (east)

H2 686 2,385 2.77 2005 Dumai (northwest)

H3 624 2,231 2.85 2005 Dumai4p

H4 483 772 1.35 2006 Dumai4p (south) H5 477 2,966 2.95 2006 Palembang (east)

Kalimantan

H1k 971 2,417 1.76 2006 MRP (C south)

H2k 804 2,289 1.80 2009 MRP (C north)

H3k 678 1,846 1.65 2002 MRP (C middle)

H4k 629 629 1.45 2006 MRP (B&D)

H5k 561 1,443 1.51 2002 MRP (A) H7k 506 2,298 2.40 2006 Sampit

*Ave.: 11-year (2002-2012) for Sumatra, 10-year (2002-2011) for Kalimantan 4.4.5.2 Fire occurrence in 2005 in N. Sumatra

In Fig. 4-37, seasonal fire occurrence and drought in N. Sumatra were found in the various curves of hotspots and precipitation. In the figure, N. Sumatra, fire occurrence in three regions, Dumai+14p, P.Baru+12p, and north others (79), are arranged from bottom to top using a variety of lines. The number of hotspots in Dumai 4p is shown independently by a dotted line. The difference between Dumai+14p and Dumai 4p shows fire occurrence in 10 grid cells in Dumai+14p except Dumai 4p or “Dumai+10p”. Average seasonal fire occurrence over 10-years is also shown with a dotted line to highlight the severe fire occurrence in 2005. Two accumulated curves for precipitation using two solid lines of different colors, and using daily data for P. Baru and Medan, are also included so as to evaluate the severity of the drought period.

From Fig.4-37, it is evident that the extreme fires of 2005 in N. Sumatra occurred in different regions and in different seasons. The most distinctive feature is that the 2005 extreme fires occurred during the dry seasons. The first extreme fires in Dumai 4p (a part of Dumai+14p) and P. Baru +12p occurred during a drought in the winter dry season WD or between mid-January and mid-March. The value of more than 100 hotspots/day was considerably higher than that of 50 hotspots/day (the 10-year average value for the whole of N. Sumatra), as shown in Fig. 4-37 and Fig. 4-39a. The following extreme fires occurred in late June in Dumai+14p (mostly in Dumai north in Table 1). The third extreme fire peak was mostly due to fires in Dumai north and North Others (79), and occurred during early and mid-August.

The extreme fires could therefore be explained by the drought conditions (using the accumulated precipitation curves in Fig. 4-37) or by the flat part of the lines for both Medan (~2 mm/day) and Pekan Baru (~1 mm/day). The drought conditions in 2005 are likely to have been caused by the active winter boreal monsoon occurring under El Niño Modoki or quasi-El Niño conditions [70]. This abrupt, wide area drought affected the north of Southeast Asia, and caused a rising by about +0.5 of the average EMI (El Niño Modoki Index) values between late 2004 and early 2005, as recorded by JAMSTEC (2013)[61] in Table 4-3.

Fires in the Dumai region, (except in Dumai4), showed another two peaks in late June and in early and mid August. These fires can be explained by the short, a devastating summer drought (SD) in Medan occurring in June and August, giving the lowest precipitation rate over the past 12-years.


49

Correspondingly, fires in North Others (mostly areas of non-peatland) became very active in late June and early August (see Fig. 4-37) under drought during SD.

Fig. 4-37. Fire occurrence and accumulated precipitation in 2005

4.4.5.3 Fire occurrence in 2006 in S. Sumatra

In Fig. 4-38, the seasonal fire occurrence and drought in S. Sumatra were found using the various curves for hotspots and precipitation. In S. Sumatra, fire occurrence in three regions, Palembang+16p, Jambi+7p, and south others (72), are displayed from bottom to top using a variety of lines (in Figure 9). The number of hotspots in Palembang 6p is independently shown by a dotted line. The difference between Palembang+ 16p and Palembang 6p shows fire occurrence in 10 grid cells in Palembang+ 16p except Palembang 6p or “Palembang+10p”. In Fig. 4-38, the average seasonal fire occurrence over 10-years is also shown with a dotted line to illustrate the severe fire occurrence in 2006. An accumulated curve for precipitation using the daily data for Palembang was also added to evaluate the severity of the drought period (using solid lines).

From Fig.4-38, we can see that the 2006 extreme fires in S. Sumatra occurred in different regions and in different seasons. Of particular note, however, is that the 2006 extreme fires in S. Sumatra also occurred during the dry season. The extreme fires in Palembang 6p (a part of Palembang+16p) and Jambi +7p occurred either during a drought in summer dry season SD or from mid September to mid October. Their numbers (more than 200 hotspots/ day) are considerably higher than that of the 100 hotspots/day of the 10-year average values for the whole of S. Sumatra (see Fig. 4-39b). A catastrophic fire can be ascertained (with about 700 hotspots/day) by one sharp peak in early October (twice as large as in Sampit). The worst fires in the Palembang and Jambi region coincided with the fire peak in the MRP area. About 60% of these fires in early October occurred in Palembang 6p (mostly in eastern Palembang in Table 1). Fire occurrences on non-peatland (or in South Others) were in early July and August, and we are thus able to refer to these fires as "warning fires" for the areas of peatland in S. Sumatra.

The extreme fires occurred in Palembang, under a devastating long-term drought involving a period of no rain lasting about 3-months. About 3-month prior to this drought, a pre-drought with very low rainfall (3.6 mm/day or the same rate as the annual rate in a dry season) was observed (see Fig4-38). These conditions are likely to be related to the El Niño event with ONI (Ocean Niño index) values in NDJ of about +1, as discussed in relation to Kalimantan [65] and Table 4-4.

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Fig.4-38. Fire occurrence and accumulated precipitation in 2006

Fig. 4-39. Large hotspots (fire, red dot) and haze occurrences captured by NASA MODIS. (a) 9 March 2005 for N. Sumatra, and (b) 8 October 2006 for S. Sumatra.

4.4.6 Fire Distributions in Extreme Fire Years

Two typical fire distributions in 2005 shown in Fig. 4-40. Fig. 4-40a shows the fire distribution during the second severe fire period in early August (DN 210-219), and Fig. 4-40(b) shows the severest fire period in mid February (DN = 40–49). To show the most fires areas, one enlarged insert for the area around Dumai overlay with the peatland and plantation map, placed near the bottom of Fig. 4-40b. Detailed maps of industrial plantation forest and annual crop plantation in

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51

Sumatra can be found in Appendix 19. Dumai and Pekan Baru areas suffered from severest fires (total number of hotspots exceed

24,000) in the most recent 11-year (2002-2012). Seasonal fire peaks appeared in mid February for whole North Sumatra under the long WD condition from mid January (see Fig. 4-37). The total number of hotspots of one peak in mid February was 3,080 and they distributed like in Fig. 4-40b. From the enlargement area in Fig. 4-40b, we note that most fires near Dumai located close to the industrial plantation forest (light green color, refer to acacia) and the annual crop plantation (yellow color, refer to palm oil). Moreover, fires in two regions of N. Sumatra in 2005 coincided to the severest fire period in the Asian region as discussed in Vadrevu and Justice (2011) [18].

Other seasonal fires showed in late June and August only for Dumai areas under 2-month SD for Medan and Pekan Baru (see Fig.4-37). Fires in August occurred under the short drought conditions only in Medan from late July. The total number of hotspots in early August was near 2,000 for whole N. Sumatra, and they distributed like in Fig. 4-40a. Both the densest fires distribution in Fig. 4-40b was not only on peatlands areas, but also outside peatlands in the center of Riau Province. This condition maybe implying fire related to agriculture activities and deforestation [59, 71].

Fig. 4-40. Two typical fire distributions in N. Sumatra. (a) Typical severe fire distribution in early

August (2005); (b) Typical peatland fire distribution in mid February (2005)

In 2006, there were two fire distributions in early October (DN = 270–279) in 200 6 (see Fig. 4-41a), and in early July (DN = 180–189) (see Fig. 4-41b). To show the most fires areas, one

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enlarged insert for the area around Palembang overly with the peatland and plantation map as shown in Fig. 4-41a.

Palembang and Jambi suffered from the severest fires (total number of hotspots exceeded 15,000, see Table 4-4) during the recent 11-years (2002-2012). Seasonal fire peaks appeared in early October under a devastating drought condition from late July (see Fig. 4-38). The total number of hotspots in mid October was approximately 7,000 and the distribution shown in Fig. 4-41a. It could be explained by similar peat condition as in the MRP areas of Kalimantan [65].

Fig. 4-41. Two typical fire distributions in S. Sumatra. (a) Typical severe peatland fire distribution in

early October (2006); (b) Typical early dry season (warning) fire distribution in late July (2006)

From the enlargement area in Fig. 4-41a, we note that most fires distributed mostly along the coastal peatland of Palembang east (colored grey). In the other hand, active fire on the non-peatland in Palembang west partially maybe related to the activities of two types of plantations (industrial plantation forest and annual crop plantation see Fig. 4-41a). Under these long-lasting dry conditions such in 2006, not only peat fires but also vegetation fires will be very active.

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53

5. CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATIONS

To clarify the present fire situation, fire prone areas, the trends in fire incidence for all of Indonesia, Kalimantan and Sumatra, this study analyzes mainly NASA MODIS hotspot, daily precipitation, and NOAA Oceanic Niño Index data, which supported by wind data and JAMSTEC El Niño Modoki Index. Analysis results clearly showed trends of spatial, annual and seasonal fire occurrence were not uniform among the peatlands in north and south regions. This condition partially could be explained by variation of precipitation patterns and severe drought enhanced by a different El Niño event in the recent decade. Therefore, the conclusions of this study can be summarized into the following three parts:

Firstly, the recent trends of forest and peat fire occurrence using a 1° (1° × 1°) grid cell for

whole Indonesia as follows:

1. The cell with the highest fire incidence (H-1, MRP*) was found in the Mega Rice Project (MRP) area in south Kalimantan. This one cell had both the maximum and the highest mean number of hotspots in the recent ten years, 5,382 hotspots in 2006 and 2,223 hotspots/yr respectively. The maximum hotspot density was 0.438 hotspots/km2. The three cells (H-1, H-2, H-3) with hotspot density exceeding 0.081 hotspots/km2 covered most of the MRP area. The total number of hotspots of these three cells was 5,174 hotspots/yr. (see Figs. 4-1, and 4-2).

2. The cell with the fourth highest fire incidence (H-4) was in the Palembang area in south Sumatra. The number of hotspots was 1,387 hotspots/yr. The other five cells with the highest fire incidence (H-6, H-7, H-9, H-10, and H-11) were in north Sumatra. The total number of hotspots of the five cells was 5,744 hotspots/yr. (see Figs. 4-1, and 4-3)

3. The annual mean number of hotspots in the whole of Indonesia was 57,800 with 78% of these fires occurring in Kalimantan (41%) and Sumatra (37%). In the year with the most fires, in 2006, the total number of hotspots was about twice (115,000) the annual mean (57,800). In 2006, the contribution of Kalimantan (47%) and Sumatra (37%) was 84%. (see Fig. 4-4)

4. For all of Indonesia the three months of August, September, and October had the highest incidences, with about 70% of fires (39,743) occurring in these three months. The percentages of the average annual number of fires (57,800) in August, September, and October were 24% (13,890), 25% (14,589), and 19% (11,264) respectively. (see Fig. 4-5)

5. Kalimantan and Sumatra also had high incidences of fires in August, September, and October with 87%, 80%, and 66% of total number of fires in each month, respectively. The fire peak for central and south Kalimantan was September and for west Kalimantan was August. South Sumatra had the most fires in the three months of August, September, and October while north of Sumatra had two periods with high fire numbers, one in February and March, and the other in June, July, and August. (see Figs. 4-5, 4-7, and 4-9)

Secondly, the recent trends of fire occurrence using 0.5° × 0.5° grid cell, and their relationship

with precipitation pattern and El Niño event for Kalimantan as follows:

1. There were twelve cells where the average hotspot density exceeds 0.129 hotspots/km2 (= 400 hotspots) among more than 200 cells covering all of Kalimantan. These most fire prone areas were found in four regions: MRP (7 cells), Sampit (2 cells), South (2 cells), and North West Kalimantan (1 cell). (see Fig. 4-22)

2. The most high hotspots cell (H1k) was MRP Block C south with 0.316 hotspots/km2 (= 971 hotspots). Other six adjacent cells with the highest density hotspot (H2k~H5k, H8k, and H9k) were covering the entire MRP area of Central and South Kalimantan Province. (see Fig.4-22)

3. The severest fires for the MRP area and its vicinity occurred in late September in 2009 under the driest conditions of moderate El Niño for Palangkaraya. The average number of hotspot was about 300 hotspots/day, which three times larger than the annual peak fire. (see Figs. 4-24, and 4-26)


54

4. Fire activities in the last 10-year in south Central Kalimantan (MRP and Sampit) were severe than other areas in Kalimantan. This may be explained by different dry conditions of peat. Namely, the peat in the southern part of Central Kalimantan could become dryer under the relatively longer dry season (about 3-month) compared with other areas (dry season in West Kalimantan is only 2/3-month). (see Figs. 4-10, 4-11,4-12, and 4-24)

5. One of spatial analysis results clearly showed a so-called a fire belt shape arising from severe fires that occurred mainly on the southern coastal peatlands from West to Central Kalimantan in mid October in 2006. The severest fire incidents for whole Kalimantan occurred in October in 2006 under the driest conditions in both Palangkaraya and Pontianak (see Figs. 4-28 and 4-31).

Thirdly, the recent trends of fire occurrence using 0.5° × 0.5° grid cell, and their relationship

with precipitation pattern and El Niño event for Sumatra as follows:

1. There were twelve cells where the average hotspot density exceeds 0.129 hotspots/km2 (= 400 hotspots) among the approximately 200 cells covering all of Sumatra. These most fire prone areas were found in four regions: Dumai (7 cells), Palembang (2 cells), Jambi (2 cells), and P. Baru (1 cell). (see Fig. 4-32)

2. The highest hotspot cell (H1s) found near east of Dumai in N. Sumatra contained an annual maximum number of hotspots of 4,494 in 2005. The 11-year average number is 941/yr. (0.306 hotspots/km2), and this average number is slightly smaller than the 971 hotspots observed in one of cells in the MRP region (Block C south) in Kalimantan (where a maximum number of 2,417 was observed in 2006). However, the annual maximum number of 4,494 within the Dumai cell is the highest recorded. (see Fig. 4.32 and Table 4-5)

3. The fifth highest hotspot cell (H5s) found near eastern Palembang in S. Sumatra had a maximum number of 2,966 hotspots in 2006, when the average number was 477/yr (0.155 hotspots/km2). This maximum number was also higher than that of 2,417 in the cell in the MRP referred to above. (see Fig.32 and Table 4-5)

4. Extreme fire occurrences in N. Sumatra in 2005 and in S. Sumatra in 2006 could be partially explained by an enhanced drought occurrence due to two different types of El Niño events (see Fig. 4-38 and 4-40). But their relatively high standard deviation (σ) values of 2.7σ in N. Sumatra, and 2.6σ in S. Sumatra (higher than 1.8σ in Kalimantan in 2006 which was the worst recent fire year for Kalimantan), suggest that both extreme fire occurrences could be classified as accidental fires (See Fig. 4-33 and 4-35). The origin of extreme fires could be from intentional fires related to practices such as land clearing and plantation development.

5. With the exception of data from the extreme fire years, most of the annual fire occurrences in the recent 10-years lay between +1σ and -1σ, except for 2010 in S. Sumatra (see Fig. 4-33 and 4-35). The above-mentioned recent fire occurrences in Sumatra were partially explained using various precipitation patterns and dry season periods for both N. and S. Sumatra (see Fig. 4-14 and 4-16).

From comparison of the results in Kalimantan and Sumatra, we may say the recent fire occurrence in Sumatra was not as intense as in Kalimantan (the annual mean number of fires was about 18,000 in Sumatra and smaller than that of 23,000 in Kalimantan), but showed a stabile annual pattern. Thus, this study recommend the future of peatland fires in Kalimantan and Sumatra can be forecasted by the observation of warning fire occurrence by MODIS, the assessment of drought conditions using the accumulated precipitation curve from around early June, and the use of El Niño information from NOAA and also supported from JAMSTEC especially for north Sumatra.

Finally, as peatland fire in Kalimantan and Sumatra mostly occur under two dry seasons: the

SD for the south Indonesia region and WSD for north Sumatra region, we should pay attention about the relationship between precipitation and ground water level (GWL) against the peat and peatland characteristics. In order to make better approach for the further modeling or index, the various remote sensing and field measurements should be considered at each the highest hotspots density areas such as Dumai, Palembang, Sampit, as well as the most MRP.


55

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would first like expresses deepest sense of gratitude to my teacher and research supervisor,

Assoc. Prof. Hiroshi Hayasaka, who offered me the opportunity to do my PhD thesis and used the excellent facilities in Laboratory of Spatial Morphology, Division of Human Environmental System, Hokkaido University. For his wise guidance, expertise, constant co-operation, constructive inspiration, and helpful suggestions had enabled me to complete this research work and in preparation the dissertation.

Likewise, I would like to express my gratitude to the members of the committee: Prof.

Shigeyuki Okada of Graduate School of Engineering and Prof. Mitsuru Osaki of Research Faculty of Agriculture, Hokkaido University for their valuable comments and critical suggestions on this study. My sincere thanks to Dr. Aswin Usup, Head of Research Center for Fire Prevention and Land Rehabilitation, and Dr. Yanetri A. Nion, Head of Division of Agrotechnology, University of Palangkaraya for their advice, guidance, and support during several field observations. Great thank to coordinators of Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA), Sapporo: Mr. Kobe Nobuyuki, Ms. Tomoko Maekawa, and Ms. Kiyomi Misaki for facilitate the administrative matters during my time in Sapporo.

I am very grateful to Dr. Hidenori Takahashi of Hokkaido Institute of Hydrology-climate,

Hokkaido University for providing many important data, and Mr. Alpon Sepriando of Meteorological, Climatology and Geophysical Agency of Central Kalimantan, Palangkaraya for providing the various weather data. I also thank Ms. Minnie Wong of University of Maryland, for providing the MODIS hotspot data in the beginning of this study. Thanks to those who helped during my research student period: Mr. Yukiyasu Yamakoshi and Mr. Ohichi of Hokkaido Industrial Research Institute, Sapporo for assistance with the combustion instruments, and Mr. Tsunehiro Watanabe of Graduate School of Environmental Science, Hokkaido University, Nayoro for help the peat and vegetation analysis.

Last but not the least, many thanks are to my family, relatives, colleagues and friends. I would

like to dedicate this dissertation especially to my beloved mother and grandmother for their continuous prayer, patience, and support during my study. Special thank to my friends from English Engineering Education (e3), Special coordinated Training Program for Sustainability Leader and Sustainability Meister (STRASS), and Hokkaido Indonesia Student Association for their friendship and cheer for the last three and half years. I also would like to thank those who inspire and help me in the church and office in Indonesia and Japan. This study is partly supported by the JST-JICA Science and Technology Research Partnership for Sustainable Development (SATREPS) project on Wild Fire and Carbon Management in Peat-Forest in Indonesia


56

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61

Appendix 1. Daily precipitation in Palangkaraya, Central Kalimantan (mm), 1978-2012

Day No.

Year

1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

1 11.30 6.60 0.00 25.00 0.00 13.20 12.70 9.80 13.50 0.00 42.20 46.10 14.50 0.00 2.10 10.00

2 33.80 35.40 56.20 0.40 0.20 21.70 1.30 1.70 98.80 12.70 1.30 0.20 1.20 10.00 0.00 29.00

3 0.00 25.00 0.20 23.80 28.40 20.50 36.50 32.00 5.80 14.40 2.00 0.30 44.50 0.30 13.00 29.00

4 37.70 34.30 0.90 23.40 0.20 21.50 10.10 27.40 4.00 0.00 3.60 14.10 14.40 0.00 6.50 2.00

5 42.00 11.00 28.50 7.00 3.80 6.20 8.40 9.60 10.50 28.20 30.80 3.20 44.50 34.80 0.00 1.00

6 0.00 60.70 4.90 0.90 5.00 0.00 0.00 5.20 3.50 26.80 32.00 0.00 4.00 18.30 36.60 0.00

7 10.30 15.70 6.00 0.00 11.00 49.20 12.60 0.00 14.80 0.00 3.40 0.30 2.70 0.00 1.00 0.00

8 17.80 29.40 7.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 52.30 8.40 3.00 0.90 8.50 1.20 14.00 8.00 1.30 41.00

9 0.10 1.00 71.40 0.00 0.20 1.00 0.00 1.80 1.00 0.10 12.50 66.90 4.00 0.00 8.00 24.00

10 26.80 19.40 6.50 3.10 0.00 36.00 3.90 2.70 5.30 0.00 3.20 3.40 0.00 6.60 3.20 2.00

11 8.00 34.80 2.70 0.00 0.80 2.70 10.00 0.20 1.40 13.00 0.20 81.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 71.00

12 13.10 8.30 11.80 0.00 17.50 4.00 0.00 1.20 0.10 39.60 30.60 43.00 53.10 9.30 0.00 1.00

13 1.00 2.20 0.00 0.00 31.40 0.50 0.00 21.70 0.00 1.20 0.00 13.70 0.00 9.00 0.80 49.00

14 22.60 25.20 2.70 0.00 0.00 1.00 6.00 2.30 0.00 3.10 20.40 0.00 0.60 3.20 1.30 3.00

15 0.90 3.00 31.60 0.00 1.00 32.30 0.00 1.00 0.00 1.70 2.50 44.00 16.10 29.30 66.40 5.00

16 9.30 0.00 1.40 0.00 0.00 44.40 0.20 4.80 0.00 6.70 0.00 6.80 23.00 24.70 2.40 10.00

17 0.00 20.90 5.20 0.00 0.00 0.70 2.80 0.00 28.40 0.50 171.00 0.00 44.40 10.00 30.00 51.00

18 7.20 0.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.20 0.60 0.10 9.80 5.70 0.00 24.90 2.30 0.00 20.00

19 14.30 6.00 2.30 0.00 0.00 27.30 0.70 0.00 0.00 0.10 3.00 0.00 5.20 58.40 1.00 17.00

20 15.30 13.40 5.90 0.00 0.00 5.40 0.00 0.50 0.00 16.90 0.50 0.00 0.00 35.60 10.00 6.00

21 63.80 62.60 21.90 0.00 0.40 4.50 4.20 0.00 0.00 5.60 0.00 47.90 2.40 5.10 1.00 0.00

22 17.70 5.80 0.00 0.10 0.00 1.60 8.50 0.00 0.00 0.70 31.10 0.00 0.00 6.70 40.00 32.00

23 20.60 0.00 7.80 0.00 1.30 4.90 0.30 0.00 7.50 1.20 12.60 12.80 0.00 24.50 12.00 6.00

24 74.40 0.70 36.60 0.00 26.90 0.10 41.30 11.00 1.60 0.90 1.20 0.30 9.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

25 3.50 16.80 2.00 16.40 8.20 156.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 30.90 0.20 0.00 0.00 20.10 0.00 0.00

26 0.00 23.20 2.30 3.10 15.30 7.30 6.70 6.00 0.00 0.00 14.30 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00

27 0.00 0.00 40.20 0.00 4.80 0.90 12.00 1.00 0.00 10.50 0.70 27.70 5.50 7.00 2.50 0.00

28 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.90 9.00 8.60 0.60 34.70 3.30 0.00 1.30 0.00 1.10 0.00 0.00

29 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.60 6.50 1.00 0.00 14.70 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 15.90 0.00 0.00

30 0.00 10.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.60 0.30 0.00 4.50 154.50 27.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

31 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 83.00 17.80 21.70 3.50 44.50 0.00 3.80 0.00 53.40 1.70 0.00 0.00

32 0.00 0.70 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.00 7.10 1.40 31.90 16.00 6.80 0.00 7.90 38.80 4.90 0.00

33 0.10 5.70 0.30 0.20 0.00 0.00 18.00 27.60 10.80 45.70 6.00 4.80 61.50 0.00 11.30 0.00

34 0.00 12.80 1.20 0.00 18.20 1.50 4.90 12.00 0.00 27.50 7.00 0.00 0.60 9.70 0.00 44.00

35 0.00 19.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 33.20 0.00 55.90 0.00 1.80 0.00 56.10 0.10 0.30 0.00

36 3.20 21.00 0.00 21.10 9.50 49.40 10.50 4.00 2.40 6.60 6.50 0.00 0.00 4.80 66.60 20.00

37 2.50 0.00 35.50 3.60 19.30 0.00 16.10 4.00 27.90 26.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.90 0.00

38 36.20 29.30 0.00 85.60 5.60 23.30 18.20 40.60 2.60 1.00 21.40 0.00 0.00 0.20 3.40 2.00

39 5.10 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 1.20 35.20 0.50 46.00 3.00 0.30 0.80 0.00 8.40 0.00 8.00

40 31.40 9.50 2.00 0.00 7.10 7.70 4.60 0.00 62.80 27.30 18.20 4.30 0.00 40.10 0.00 0.00

41 10.40 7.00 0.00 24.60 3.20 0.00 0.00 4.80 2.80 0.50 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00

42 3.60 24.00 0.00 24.50 2.60 8.60 8.60 0.00 6.20 16.70 14.30 2.50 0.00 0.00 30.00 0.00

43 0.20 50.60 3.80 0.10 0.00 0.00 1.60 57.00 0.00 0.00 4.80 23.20 0.00 0.00 2.40 3.00

44 0.00 13.70 16.70 0.40 0.10 0.00 0.00 16.70 22.20 0.20 8.80 40.70 0.00 0.00 23.50 13.00

45 0.00 1.30 1.10 20.50 5.20 17.80 0.50 14.00 1.40 0.00 37.40 41.60 1.60 0.00 2.30 9.00

46 0.00 1.60 5.70 0.30 3.10 0.00 18.80 0.00 1.00 0.00 39.10 1.20 5.00 0.00 4.20 1.00

47 12.30 30.50 6.30 6.70 0.50 0.40 10.10 0.00 22.70 3.80 14.20 48.30 2.60 0.00 49.20 2.00

48 0.00 34.40 6.00 0.00 25.00 1.60 2.60 0.90 6.70 0.00 2.10 1.40 28.90 0.30 82.40 1.00

49 1.60 40.30 17.00 2.20 0.00 5.30 0.10 0.00 8.60 0.00 0.50 4.80 0.00 8.50 0.80 26.00

*Complete data on the CD-ROM will be provided on the request. Contact e-mail address: [email protected], [email protected]


62

Appendix 2. Daily precipitation in Sampit, Central Kalimantan (mm), 2006-2012

Day No. Year

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 1 0.60 0.00 2.80 6.60 9.80 0.00 0.00 2 0.00 0.40 3.10 23.50 1.00 24.00 0.00 3 55.60 2.80 1.20 0.00 0.00 57.50 0.10 4 11.40 6.70 0.00 0.10 7.00 3.60 0.00 5 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.60 0.00 4.30 6 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 11.00 0.00 0.00 7 0.00 0.00 1.50 15.10 6.60 3.80 0.00 8 0.00 0.00 11.10 0.10 16.60 0.00 3.30 9 9.00 2.00 19.90 0.00 4.80 1.80 22.80

10 13.00 7.50 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.50 13.80 11 12.60 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.60 0.10 12 0.80 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 1.90 13 26.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 1.70 0.00 14 10.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 8.70 15 7.20 0.30 0.00 17.40 0.00 0.00 0.10 16 10.10 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 17 30.40 0.00 0.00 31.20 0.00 0.00 15.70 18 4.40 121.30 4.00 45.30 0.00 0.00 27.00 19 0.00 29.90 0.00 0.60 6.50 10.80 4.00 20 0.00 23.70 15.50 7.00 39.60 0.80 0.00 21 0.00 9.20 0.10 0.00 0.00 17.00 0.00 22 0.00 1.70 0.00 9.60 0.40 10.00 0.00 23 12.00 120.30 0.00 9.20 0.00 8.50 0.00 24 0.20 13.20 0.00 0.40 9.60 0.00 0.00 25 0.00 25.00 12.50 2.20 0.00 2.30 0.00 26 0.00 6.50 57.00 0.00 5.00 6.00 0.00 27 0.00 0.00 7.40 0.50 1.30 0.00 47.00 28 0.00 6.10 2.20 15.90 26.00 0.00 0.30 29 0.00 0.40 0.00 3.90 64.80 35.00 0.60 30 64.00 5.30 0.00 2.20 38.00 4.60 3.20 31 9.00 9.60 8.80 14.30 32.20 2.70 21.10 32 22.00 0.50 73.50 0.00 4.80 0.00 0.00 33 5.00 0.00 22.00 27.00 16.20 2.80 27.00 34 27.00 0.00 15.20 0.00 0.00 5.20 4.00 35 39.20 24.50 0.10 0.00 0.20 2.50 0.00 36 36.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.40 19.10 6.30 37 29.40 10.70 12.90 0.00 10.80 0.00 0.40 38 9.00 0.60 1.90 0.00 1.50 0.10 23.10 39 1.60 3.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.20 40 3.00 29.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.50 41 33.00 78.50 1.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.30 42 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 0.20 43 0.40 14.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 2.10 44 0.00 4.70 0.00 0.00 55.80 0.00 3.10 45 47.20 1.00 0.00 33.00 1.60 37.20 5.20 46 2.80 17.50 0.00 0.80 58.40 10.40 0.00 47 11.00 3.40 0.00 0.00 123.40 0.20 0.20



63

Appendix 3. Daily precipitation in Pontianak, West Kalimantan (mm), 2001-2012

Day No. Year

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 2.00 0.00 2.60 0.00 16.00 0.20 97.30 6.40 13.30 6.40 0.00 2 1.00 0.00 0.00 21.30 22.30 0.00 14.60 0.40 2.00 6.80 1.20 3 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 5.80 34.00 0.00 1.50 0.00 4 9.00 2.00 31.00 0.00 13.30 4.90 12.10 0.00 16.70 29.60 1.50 5 14.00 0.00 5.40 0.00 7.80 15.00 16.20 0.00 14.30 1.50 2.00 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.80 1.00 0.00 1.80 3.70 13.20 0.00 7 2.00 0.00 0.00 1.10 56.00 63.20 1.50 0.10 1.00 0.00 18.50 8 2.00 0.00 17.10 0.00 43.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 9.80 9 2.00 13.00 8.50 0.00 0.10 16.80 0.00 0.00 100.60 0.00 7.30

10 0.00 10.00 28.70 1.00 0.60 4.80 0.00 2.70 4.00 0.00 32.80 11 0.00 94.00 104.00 18.50 5.20 0.90 0.00 0.00 32.20 0.00 6.30 12 0.00 0.00 91.30 0.00 0.00 37.70 5.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.40 13 0.00 0.00 10.30 0.00 1.00 48.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.30 14 5.00 2.00 0.00 2.50 0.20 5.00 5.00 0.00 0.00 3.10 22.80 15 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 29.00 0.00 6.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.40 2.50 1.40 3.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 17 0.00 96.00 9.40 0.00 2.50 5.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18 0.00 0.00 4.20 0.00 0.00 6.40 0.00 0.00 7.50 8.30 0.00 19 22.00 0.00 0.30 11.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.10 0.00 20 0.00 53.00 5.00 36.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 21 23.00 3.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22 0.00 21.00 3.80 9.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23 0.00 23.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 57.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 24 0.00 1.00 0.00 22.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 9.50 0.00 13.30 25 1.00 9.00 0.00 36.00 0.00 0.00 21.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 26 9.00 5.00 0.00 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.60 0.00 7.20 0.00 27 1.00 25.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 0.00 3.50 7.50 1.10 19.00 15.70 28 0.00 11.00 0.00 7.10 0.00 0.00 1.40 38.40 15.30 0.00 7.10 29 10.00 1.00 0.00 12.30 0.00 0.00 27.30 0.00 1.00 4.00 5.00 30 0.00 8.00 47.90 26.20 0.00 0.00 2.40 0.30 4.50 0.00 4.20 31 46.00 24.00 8.00 0.50 0.50 0.00 0.00 21.50 0.40 0.50 40.10 32 14.00 33.00 79.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.50 0.00 0.00 11.40 33 31.00 1.00 4.70 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.60 12.50 3.90 0.00 34 12.00 2.00 7.90 8.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 19.00 0.00 8.50 35 24.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.10 0.00 0.00 6.20 36 7.00 0.00 2.50 1.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.20 37 0.00 0.00 11.00 0.00 0.00 2.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.50 0.00 38 0.00 0.00 9.50 0.00 0.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.10 0.00 40 16.00 0.00 53.20 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41 12.00 0.00 5.20 0.00 0.00 41.20 2.00 1.00 0.00 10.60 0.00 42 4.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.00 21.10 0.00 0.30 0.00 18.40 0.00 43 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.40 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 44 0.00 0.00 15.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 45 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.40 36.50 0.00 13.50 0.00 0.00 2.40 0.00 46 11.00 2.00 74.20 2.90 25.30 86.00 19.60 0.00 0.00 3.50 0.00 47 23.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.30 5.90 0.00 0.00 7.00 0.00 12.00



64

Appendix 4. Daily precipitation in Samarinda, East Kalimantan (mm), 2001-2012

Day No. Year

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 1.50 2.40 0.00 2.70 19.60 13.00 0.70 53.00 1.50 15.50 0.00 2 0.90 0.50 0.00 14.00 1.00 0.00 0.60 8.10 32.50 2.90 0.60 3 0.00 1.50 0.30 9.40 0.00 34.20 0.50 5.50 1.00 0.00 6.00 4 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.40 1.80 10.20 0.00 0.00 27.80 32.00 5 0.50 66.30 47.50 0.00 25.00 61.00 5.70 0.00 11.60 0.00 0.60 6 2.60 9.10 0.00 33.50 0.00 3.40 5.70 1.00 1.00 0.00 93.00 7 0.60 0.00 3.20 35.00 0.00 8.70 2.20 7.40 0.00 1.00 0.00 8 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.70 0.00 8.50 0.00 8.00 2.50 11.30 9 0.10 0.00 0.50 0.00 3.40 1.00 52.00 3.00 3.50 0.00 6.10

10 15.70 32.00 8.40 0.00 0.00 3.00 7.00 0.00 0.00 4.50 24.90 11 27.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.70 12 0.00 0.00 22.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.50 0.00 0.00 32.00 3.00 13 16.90 0.00 4.00 0.00 6.50 4.80 0.00 1.00 0.00 11.00 0.00 14 0.00 8.70 32.90 0.00 7.30 15.50 46.20 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 15 12.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.40 6.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.60 16 13.30 1.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17 0.00 15.90 0.80 0.00 32.50 11.00 0.00 0.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 18 1.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.30 0.00 1.00 16.00 4.50 19 14.10 0.00 29.50 42.00 0.00 3.50 0.00 2.00 14.00 3.00 3.50 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.00 0.00 2.90 3.10 20.60 1.00 12.00 13.50 21 30.00 9.50 13.30 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.20 18.00 0.00 0.40 22 3.20 10.00 0.00 32.80 0.00 0.00 3.00 1.60 5.60 0.00 0.00 23 0.00 0.00 36.50 2.00 0.00 42.40 15.30 6.00 9.60 3.50 15.50 24 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.30 2.20 4.90 6.80 1.60 0.00 4.50 0.00 25 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.30 0.00 1.30 2.40 0.00 3.30 0.00 0.90 26 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.10 0.00 0.00 1.50 16.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 27 0.00 0.00 12.70 14.20 0.00 0.00 20.40 1.60 8.30 0.00 0.00 28 7.10 0.00 16.10 8.90 2.30 0.00 50.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.30 29 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 26.70 0.00 3.60 5.50 0.00 30 7.50 0.00 9.00 66.30 21.40 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.50 31 2.00 0.00 14.00 31.70 26.40 0.00 0.80 0.00 13.00 4.50 0.00 32 5.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.00 2.50 17.00 4.00 25.00 33 60.90 0.00 2.10 5.00 0.00 0.00 3.40 5.50 0.00 4.00 1.00 34 0.40 33.70 18.00 12.00 11.80 11.50 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 35 0.10 12.20 44.50 12.40 5.00 16.30 0.00 0.00 5.70 0.00 2.00 36 5.70 0.00 4.20 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 31.90 37 0.00 0.00 0.00 37.10 0.00 7.30 72.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.50 38 49.50 0.00 0.50 24.50 0.00 1.20 50.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.50 39 5.70 0.00 9.30 1.00 0.00 0.40 0.00 4.80 9.00 0.00 31.70 40 15.10 0.00 5.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70 0.00 9.90 41 12.00 0.00 0.00 11.30 0.00 20.20 2.50 31.40 0.70 0.00 0.00 42 0.10 0.00 11.00 0.00 0.00 42.00 0.00 4.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 43 51.40 0.00 0.70 9.60 0.00 16.30 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 4.00 44 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.50 0.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.60 45 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 4.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.40 46 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 39.60 0.00 3.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 47 0.00 3.00 3.30 7.30 0.00 16.00 19.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00



65

Appendix 5. Daily precipitation in Medan, North Sumatra (mm), 2001-2012

Day No. Year

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 15.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.20 8.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2 2.00 0.00 33.00 0.00 39.60 5.00 0.00 0.00 9.30 5.60 50.00 3 47.10 3.60 0.20 0.00 0.00 5.40 0.00 0.00 43.90 22.00 0.00 4 0.40 0.00 0.20 0.00 41.40 0.00 15.20 0.00 4.20 0.00 2.00 5 7.10 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.60 9.20 1.00 0.00 6 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 12.80 0.40 0.00 0.00 58.80 52.00 7 23.90 20.50 8.70 0.40 0.00 63.60 0.00 1.10 0.00 14.60 0.00 8 0.00 0.00 48.00 4.30 3.00 0.00 19.40 67.40 0.00 0.00 4.00 9 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 2.30 37.40 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00

10 1.40 1.00 1.00 0.00 1.20 0.00 12.20 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 11 3.00 2.60 2.00 74.20 0.00 0.00 23.50 0.00 1.50 0.00 1.00 12 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 13 7.60 43.40 0.00 0.80 44.30 0.00 4.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 14 24.40 0.00 1.50 3.70 0.00 4.80 1.20 0.00 71.50 0.00 0.00 15 14.00 0.00 1.80 2.00 14.60 1.80 0.00 0.00 14.40 7.80 0.00 16 6.70 0.20 5.70 5.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.90 0.00 0.00 17 0.10 0.00 0.50 0.00 12.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.70 0.00 0.00 18 0.10 0.00 10.00 0.00 3.20 0.00 1.20 2.60 0.00 3.30 0.00 19 2.60 0.00 4.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.40 7.00 0.00 11.50 0.00 20 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.30 0.00 0.00 13.00 0.00 1.20 0.50 0.00 21 1.60 1.50 15.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 9.80 0.00 0.00 22 0.00 0.00 27.80 8.10 2.00 0.00 33.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23 0.00 2.60 0.00 4.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 24 0.00 1.60 0.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 25 11.80 3.80 0.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.30 0.00 26 33.80 9.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 27.60 25.00 27 0.40 0.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.70 10.40 13.00 1.20 7.00 28 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.60 2.90 0.20 29 6.80 0.00 0.00 1.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 30 0.00 0.00 5.60 4.20 15.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.10 0.00 10.00 31 6.10 0.00 1.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 32 5.30 0.00 26.60 31.00 0.00 3.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 33 0.00 0.00 6.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 34 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.50 0.00 0.80 0.00 6.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 35 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.50 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.00 36 0.00 1.20 1.00 0.00 1.40 12.70 0.00 0.00 27.20 0.00 0.00 37 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 38 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.60 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 39 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.10 0.00 40 0.00 0.00 24.60 2.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 42 0.00 15.10 2.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 43 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.00 0.80 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 44 6.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 15.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 13.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 46 0.80 7.50 16.90 0.00 0.00 11.30 0.00 0.00 4.80 0.00 0.00 47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.00 0.00



66

Appendix 6. Daily precipitation in Pekan Baru, Riau (mm), 2001-2012

Day No. Year

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 35.60 0.00 0.50 0.00 15.80 0.00 5.50 0.00 14.20 1.70 7.60 2 0.60 0.00 0.90 0.00 0.30 0.00 33.00 0.00 1.70 0.00 0.50 3 37.00 0.00 18.50 0.00 5.10 0.00 60.70 0.00 5.00 11.70 0.00 4 0.00 0.00 40.10 0.00 0.00 32.20 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 18.00 5 0.00 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.80 0.00 23.20 0.00 0.00 7.20 6 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 18.70 0.00 2.00 0.00 11.60 1.40 7 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 19.00 4.60 0.00 20.90 16.10 0.00 0.00 8 0.00 0.00 37.60 3.80 27.30 26.70 0.00 3.90 35.60 20.50 3.60 9 0.00 0.40 13.00 2.50 14.00 28.20 3.00 2.20 0.00 13.60 3.00

10 0.00 2.30 46.00 53.90 6.40 31.10 10.00 2.10 0.00 0.00 5.10 11 0.20 0.00 0.00 21.60 0.00 9.20 35.50 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 12 0.00 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.30 7.10 1.10 28.10 52.60 9.10 13 0.00 2.60 9.80 16.60 0.00 4.10 0.80 0.00 11.00 8.60 12.50 14 0.10 0.00 0.30 20.00 0.50 0.00 10.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 15 146.30 0.00 6.20 0.00 6.00 60.50 7.70 43.00 1.40 2.30 36.80 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 17.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.20 2.50 17 0.00 0.40 25.00 0.00 0.40 6.70 13.50 0.00 0.00 1.00 5.40 18 13.30 3.70 20.00 72.60 0.00 1.60 23.30 0.00 0.00 31.10 1.60 19 0.00 0.80 3.30 3.40 0.00 0.00 4.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 20 0.00 0.80 3.80 69.20 0.00 0.00 23.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21 2.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.70 20.90 0.00 70.80 0.00 22 1.50 89.90 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.60 1.00 0.00 0.70 0.00 23 1.20 13.10 1.00 0.10 0.00 16.60 0.00 11.30 0.00 42.20 0.40 24 30.00 34.00 0.00 2.70 0.00 26.40 0.00 10.40 0.00 4.50 22.20 25 6.00 2.20 56.00 0.80 0.00 0.00 3.40 1.00 4.40 0.00 3.00 26 26.00 8.60 0.00 0.10 0.00 3.40 0.10 1.10 1.60 0.00 19.00 27 6.30 11.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.70 8.20 12.40 7.40 15.10 28 13.50 0.80 0.00 4.60 0.00 0.00 0.50 8.30 0.00 7.40 24.10 29 5.30 5.60 32.80 1.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 43.00 16.00 71.20 24.80 30 0.00 0.00 46.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.10 39.60 25.40 11.10 4.10 31 0.30 0.00 52.20 15.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 32 0.00 0.00 6.40 59.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 85.40 0.00 0.00 33 0.00 0.00 5.00 16.50 1.00 1.10 0.80 60.80 2.00 0.00 0.00 34 0.00 0.00 11.00 0.40 0.00 4.00 0.00 1.00 6.00 236.00 0.00 35 0.00 0.00 7.20 0.20 0.00 9.8 2.20 0.00 0.00 8.50 0.00 36 0.60 0.00 0.00 25.50 0.00 1.70 1.50 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 38 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.90 0.00 39 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.10 0.00 1.00 0.00 40 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41 0.00 0.00 4.70 7.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.80 0.00 42 0.00 0.00 6.20 0.00 0.00 8.30 0.00 0.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 43 0.80 0.30 10.00 0.00 0.80 42.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 18.70 44 0.00 0.00 8.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 45 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.20 7.10 37.50 6.30 0.00 0.00 39.60 46 1.10 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 4.50 2.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.90 47 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.70



67

Appendix 7. Daily precipitation in Palembang, South Sumatra (mm), 2001-2012

Day No.

Year 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

1 13.00 0.00 0.00 6.70 6.50 0.00 8.70 10.00 3.20 5.00 0.00 2 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 6.80 0.50 1.90 0.00 0.00 3 21.00 0.00 33.50 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 17.60 15.00 2.00 4 10.00 0.00 0.00 17.90 18.30 9.20 25.00 0.00 4.00 0.00 31.00 5 24.00 0.00 0.00 6.00 32.50 20.50 60.40 0.00 18.80 3.00 16.00 6 6.00 17.80 0.00 1.20 0.00 4.90 0.00 0.00 0.80 15.00 12.00 7 1.00 0.00 11.30 0.00 5.60 119.00 38.50 0.00 37.30 10.00 11.00 8 1.00 0.00 47.30 5.10 1.50 18.30 2.70 0.00 0.00 28.00 0.00 9 8.00 11.30 0.00 0.50 10.90 2.70 3.70 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.80

10 0.00 13.00 16.40 0.30 100.40 0.00 8.20 1.20 4.50 4.00 3.00 11 2.00 14.80 0.00 2.70 1.50 19.70 9.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12 0.00 18.10 2.90 0.90 1.10 0.00 1.30 26.20 2.80 3.00 0.00 13 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.50 29.30 0.00 40.00 10.50 0.00 10.00 0.00 14 0.00 8.50 27.80 0.00 0.00 6.20 25.30 3.50 8.00 0.00 0.00 15 53.00 3.00 5.20 0.00 51.70 8.20 48.00 66.80 4.30 29.00 25.00 16 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.10 7.70 13.90 4.70 2.60 2.60 0.00 0.00 17 0.00 15.50 0.00 0.00 2.00 2.10 2.50 6.60 0.40 0.80 2.00 18 0.00 13.10 0.00 41.30 0.00 8.30 8.00 0.00 1.40 2.00 0.00 19 3.00 0.00 0.20 0.00 0.00 35.40 100.20 8.90 0.00 15.00 6.00 20 0.00 38.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.30 0.00 21 9.00 19.10 5.00 6.60 0.00 13.00 2.50 2.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 22 16.00 3.40 0.00 3.30 0.00 22.30 2.40 18.60 0.00 0.00 25.00 23 13.00 0.00 0.00 24.00 0.00 18.00 0.00 1.20 0.00 2.00 3.00 24 11.00 4.60 1.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 31.90 10.80 4.00 0.00 5.00 25 120.00 35.90 2.80 0.80 0.00 0.30 0.30 0.10 30.70 11.00 0.00 26 1.00 4.40 0.40 1.70 0.00 0.50 7.80 4.00 3.40 0.00 0.00 27 5.00 20.00 0.00 8.70 0.00 0.50 13.90 1.50 10.70 1.00 0.00 28 0.00 20.20 0.00 40.10 43.00 1.00 21.20 36.00 19.10 3.00 4.00 29 34.00 6.80 6.70 0.00 0.00 0.20 3.20 0.00 2.70 44.00 127.00 30 0.00 37.70 5.20 0.00 12.00 0.50 2.30 0.30 12.90 0.20 0.40 31 0.00 13.70 0.00 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 40.10 0.00 6.00 4.00 32 0.00 10.00 0.00 21.70 31.00 0.00 3.20 1.00 42.10 20.00 0.00 33 22.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.20 0.00 9.60 8.10 0.30 17.00 0.00 34 0.00 0.00 75.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.20 1.50 12.40 30.00 0.40 35 5.00 0.00 3.30 31.50 0.00 2.00 0.50 0.00 0.00 19.00 11.00 36 1.00 0.00 9.00 0.10 38.20 24.70 0.60 0.00 0.70 11.00 26.00 37 0.00 0.60 2.80 0.60 10.40 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 7.00 1.00 38 43.00 0.00 3.40 12.70 0.80 0.00 0.30 0.00 4.30 0.00 0.00 39 15.00 4.10 0.60 10.50 0.00 39.20 0.00 2.70 0.40 8.00 2.00 40 0.00 0.00 15.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.00 28.00 0.00 41 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 91.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 12.00 42 0.00 0.40 5.20 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 14.00 0.00 43 0.00 0.00 5.80 0.00 25.90 31.00 0.00 0.00 12.40 17.00 0.00 44 1.00 0.00 20.60 0.20 7.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.90 11.00 0.00 45 0.00 7.90 10.00 3.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.30 22.00 0.00 46 1.00 1.00 9.80 0.70 0.00 2.80 0.30 0.00 0.50 2.00 0.00 47 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.40 0.00 78.40 0.00 0.00 0.50 32.00



68

Appendix 8. Daily precipitation in Jambi, Jambi (mm), 2001-2012

Day No. Year

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 19.40 0.00 0.00 0.00 8.60 0.00 15.40 13.20 12.00 0.00 0.00 2 10.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.00 2.70 0.00 4.00 34.30 0.00 3 3.10 0.00 0.00 1.60 1.50 0.40 0.00 0.00 13.00 0.00 0.00 4 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 1.80 8.30 0.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 0.20 5 0.00 0.00 0.20 44.20 7.90 18.40 5.80 0.00 1.00 0.60 45.00 6 2.30 22.30 0.00 0.00 2.40 0.00 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 29.00 7 0.00 4.40 0.00 0.00 3.20 7.00 0.00 1.30 2.00 0.00 0.00 8 0.00 0.70 8.60 3.50 13.00 26.50 0.00 0.00 6.00 10.10 0.00 9 0.00 3.60 11.20 0.00 3.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.00 0.00 8.00

10 3.00 38.20 1.30 0.00 0.00 1.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 11.00 11 1.10 0.00 1.30 88.00 0.00 1.10 15.00 0.80 0.00 0.60 1.00 12 12.00 10.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.10 0.00 0.70 5.00 4.80 0.00 13 6.70 4.80 0.00 0.00 0.50 0.00 1.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 0.00 14 27.60 0.00 12.90 0.00 11.00 0.30 7.00 0.00 2.00 15.60 0.00 15 3.40 0.00 14.00 0.00 0.00 0.80 0.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 0.00 16 0.00 0.00 33.20 0.30 0.00 30.50 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 0.00 17 20.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.00 0.00 0.00 16.90 1.00 0.60 10.00 18 0.00 0.00 10.80 70.20 1.60 1.00 13.60 0.00 0.00 14.20 0.00 19 5.60 0.00 0.00 11.20 0.00 15.30 53.70 0.70 0.00 1.00 12.00 20 2.20 9.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 28.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21 3.60 4.80 43.20 12.00 0.00 1.10 9.50 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22 9.40 2.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.90 3.40 38.00 0.00 0.00 0.90 23 4.30 0.00 23.50 53.00 0.00 30.40 0.00 4.60 0.00 15.50 134.00 24 3.20 0.00 18.40 22.20 0.00 7.30 3.70 16.60 0.00 0.00 9.00 25 0.60 0.00 2.40 2.50 0.00 1.50 3.20 13.60 6.00 7.20 0.30 26 0.10 0.00 0.00 30.50 0.00 0.00 1.10 12.50 30.00 0.00 19.00 27 0.90 44.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 22.30 25.40 8.00 0.90 0.20 28 1.30 11.10 0.00 39.20 0.60 0.00 19.20 5.50 0.00 2.00 1.00 29 60.00 7.40 17.40 0.20 0.00 0.00 4.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 31.00 30 1.00 0.40 25.80 0.00 0.00 8.50 0.20 0.00 12.00 0.00 0.00 31 0.50 18.20 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 30.50 0.00 2.40 2.00 32 0.00 0.00 0.00 29.80 42.00 42.00 0.00 0.00 33.20 2.00 0.00 33 0.00 0.00 0.20 31.40 31.00 31.00 5.20 4.30 1.50 0.30 0.00 34 0.00 0.00 22.50 0.00 1.00 1.00 0.30 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 35 0.00 0.00 12.50 30.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 54.00 36 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.60 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 1.00 1.00 37 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.60 0.00 0.80 0.00 21.00 0.00 38 0.00 0.00 4.20 33.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 21.60 0.00 4.00 39 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 1.80 0.00 0.00 2.00 0.00 40 0.00 0.00 0.00 5.00 0.00 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 41 0.00 0.00 15.70 0.00 0.00 14.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.00 0.00 42 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 23.90 4.00 0.00 43 0.00 1.20 13.80 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 44 0.00 0.00 2.50 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 45 0.00 0.00 36.70 0.00 0.00 0.00 2.10 0.00 45.80 0.00 0.00 46 0.00 0.00 126.60 11.80 4.00 1.10 2.10 0.00 0.00 6.00 0.00 47 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.50 0.00 0.00 11.00 28.00



69

Appendix 9. Daily wind direction in Palangkaraya, Central Kalimantan (o), 1997-2012

Day No. Year

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 1 360 180 270 225 270 135 315 270 270 210 300 2 315 180 225 360 315 270 270 270 270 200 290 3 180 135 270 270 135 225 180 270 360 360 280 4 135 90 270 360 315 315 315 180 225 360 270 5 135 360 270 315 270 360 270 180 315 300 280 6 180 270 315 270 225 135 270 135 180 180 210 7 315 180 180 315 180 180 180 135 360 330 250 8 180 90 270 90 270 270 180 180 270 340 300 9 360 180 315 180 270 315 315 360 180 280 360

10 180 45 90 135 315 360 270 180 270 360 240 11 225 225 90 270 180 315 270 360 270 280 200 12 225 180 360 315 225 270 270 360 315 90 250 13 180 180 180 180 180 225 360 360 180 300 240 14 360 90 180 360 315 270 270 90 360 270 270 15 135 360 315 315 315 360 270 180 225 360 220 16 180 180 360 180 135 90 90 180 360 90 260 17 270 180 180 315 180 360 270 180 270 270 280 18 315 180 225 315 270 225 270 315 180 300 300 19 180 180 270 270 360 180 225 270 360 300 180 20 270 360 270 360 180 360 360 315 270 300 310 21 270 360 225 225 225 90 135 180 45 340 330 22 225 45 225 360 270 180 360 135 180 360 240 23 270 360 360 45 180 225 360 270 180 180 220 24 315 180 360 270 270 360 360 270 180 240 210 25 360 180 225 270 315 360 180 180 270 300 240 26 270 135 225 270 180 45 360 180 270 330 180 27 225 180 270 180 360 360 360 360 360 340 220 28 360 225 225 180 225 270 360 180 360 300 320 29 180 360 225 180 180 225 180 90 270 310 190 30 315 45 225 45 135 45 270 270 360 270 250 31 315 360 270 180 270 180 270 270 270 10 200 32 90 45 315 270 270 315 315 180 90 180 320 33 180 90 270 315 270 315 270 270 280 180 360 34 315 45 315 180 270 270 180 270 360 180 360 35 315 180 270 180 270 315 315 315 360 360 320 36 315 45 270 270 270 315 270 315 180 10 20 37 315 225 270 180 270 315 270 270 290 290 270 38 135 180 270 270 180 270 180 225 100 240 280 39 225 270 225 270 270 315 180 360 10 180 180 40 270 180 315 0 270 225 315 270 360 270 280 41 180 360 270 180 270 315 270 270 360 340 290 42 180 135 315 90 315 360 270 360 40 250 290 43 270 360 270 360 270 270 270 360 300 340 290 44 135 45 270 180 270 180 360 360 360 350 10 45 360 360 315 315 315 360 270 270 180 90 340 46 270 360 180 360 315 90 270 180 270 260 210 47 180 180 180 180 360 45 90 270 240 230 310



70

Appendix 10. Daily wind direction in Pontianak, West Kalimantan (o), 2001-2011

Day No. Year

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 315 315 225 315 135 315 270 315 270 270 225 2 315 315 270 315 135 45 270 315 270 270 360 3 225 315 225 315 90 270 270 315 225 270 225 4 270 270 270 225 225 VRB 270 315 270 270 270 5 45 315 225 315 45 225 270 270 270 225 270 6 45 315 225 315 315 225 225 270 270 45 225 7 315 180 270 270 270 315 135 270 270 270 270 8 315 45 270 270 270 225 180 270 315 360 270 9 315 45 315 180 270 45 180 270 225 270 270

10 315 225 270 VRB 225 45 270 270 315 270 225 11 270 135 270 225 270 90 180 270 315 270 315 12 225 45 315 270 225 270 90 270 315 315 315 13 225 360 315 360 315 225 225 270 360 270 315 14 270 45 270 CALM 270 270 270 315 360 360 360 15 45 270 270 225 315 45 270 315 360 270 270 16 225 225 270 225 315 270 225 270 360 270 315 17 225 45 45 360 45 315 270 270 360 270 360 18 180 45 45 315 315 315 270 270 360 315 360 19 45 225 45 270 315 270 135 270 270 270 270 20 270 270 45 315 315 270 225 270 270 270 360 21 180 225 225 225 270 270 360 270 270 90 225 22 270 225 360 45 135 315 360 270 270 270 225 23 225 225 270 45 45 315 135 180 360 45 360 24 315 270 270 45 45 315 180 180 360 315 270 25 180 45 45 315 270 315 270 135 90 45 270 26 360 135 135 315 270 315 270 135 360 270 225 27 135 315 90 270 270 315 360 135 360 270 225 28 225 315 90 90 270 315 45 270 315 45 270 29 360 45 90 225 225 270 360 315 315 45 315 30 270 45 45 315 270 270 180 45 315 270 360 31 225 315 135 45 270 270 270 360 315 270 90 32 270 270 225 315 270 VRB 315 270 315 225 90 33 270 315 315 225 315 90 315 45 315 270 90 34 180 45 180 225 270 315 270 45 315 270 360 35 270 360 225 315 315 270 270 45 315 270 360 36 225 315 315 270 270 270 270 270 315 45 270 37 45 315 315 270 270 45 270 270 315 225 270 38 315 315 90 225 315 315 270 270 270 225 270 39 270 360 225 225 360 315 270 360 315 90 270 40 270 270 45 315 315 180 225 360 270 225 270 41 270 360 225 270 315 135 225 270 270 225 270 42 315 270 VRB 315 360 180 315 270 270 270 90 43 315 315 225 270 270 45 45 270 270 45 270 44 315 270 45 135 270 225 270 270 270 45 270 45 315 315 270 315 225 135 270 270 270 225 270 46 270 45 225 135 45 45 270 270 315 225 135 47 315 315 225 VRB 225 315 360 270 225 225 45



71

Appendix 11. Daily wind direction in Palembang, South Sumatra (o), 2005, 2006, & 2012

Day No. Year

2005 2006 2012 1 270 360 315 2 225 315 225 3 225 315 360 4 225 360 315 5 360 315 315 6 225 360 315 7 225 360 315 8 225 270 315 9 225 270 315

10 270 315 315 11 225 360 315 12 360 315 270 13 360 315 225 14 360 315 225 15 225 315 315 16 360 360 315 17 225 315 360 18 90 360 360 19 360 360 45 20 360 360 315 21 225 315 315 22 360 315 315 23 360 315 315 24 360 360 315 25 360 360 360 26 360 360 360 27 360 360 315 28 360 360 315 29 360 360 315 30 315 360 315 31 360 360 45 32 360 315 45 33 315 360 315 34 360 315 315 35 360 360 270 36 360 315 90 37 360 315 45 38 360 360 360 39 360 360 270 40 360 315 315 41 360 315 315 42 360 270 315 43 360 90 315 44 360 90 315 45 360 360 270 46 45 45 180 47 270 45 270



72

Appendix 12. Daily wind direction in Medan, North Sumatra (o), 2005, 2006, & 2012

Day No. Year

2005 2006 2012 1 360 360 360 2 270 360 360 3 360 360 - 4 - 360 - 5 315 360 - 6 360 360 90 7 360 180 360 8 360 270 360 9 360 90 315

10 360 360 - 11 90 45 - 12 - 360 360 13 90 360 - 14 45 360 360 15 90 360 360 16 45 360 - 17 - - 360 18 - 315 45 19 90 360 - 20 360 360 360 21 90 360 360 22 90 360 360 23 90 360 - 24 - - 360 25 360 45 360 26 360 360 360 27 45 45 360 28 360 360 360 29 315 360 - 30 - 360 360 31 360 360 360 32 360 360 90 33 360 - 90 34 360 45 - 35 - 270 90 36 360 - 360 37 360 360 360 38 360 360 315 39 360 360 180 40 360 360 360 41 360 360 360 42 360 360 360 43 360 360 180 44 360 360 - 45 360 - 360 46 360 - - 47 45 360 180



73

Appendix 13. Daily wind velocity in Palangkaraya, Central Kalimantan (m/s), 1997-2012

Day No. Year 1 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2 2.22 1.67 1.11 1.39 1.67 2.22 3.61 2.78 1.94 1.33 2.78 3 1.67 3.61 3.33 1.39 2.78 3.06 1.39 3.33 1.67 2.88 4.17 4 1.67 2.78 3.61 1.67 2.78 1.94 1.67 2.22 0.83 1.75 3.33 5 1.67 2.50 5.56 2.22 2.22 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.67 2.00 4.44 6 2.22 1.67 4.44 2.78 1.67 1.11 4.44 1.67 2.50 2.00 4.44 7 3.33 1.67 3.33 1.67 2.78 3.33 3.33 2.78 1.94 1.29 2.22 8 2.50 5.28 4.17 5.00 2.78 2.78 2.22 3.61 1.67 2.04 2.78 9 1.94 1.11 3.06 1.94 1.94 1.11 2.78 1.94 1.39 0.83 2.78

10 2.22 4.17 4.17 2.50 3.89 1.67 2.78 2.78 1.67 0.79 1.39 11 5.28 1.94 3.61 2.50 2.22 1.94 3.33 1.67 1.67 2.42 2.22 12 3.06 2.22 1.11 1.94 1.94 2.22 1.67 1.67 1.11 1.25 5.83 13 2.78 1.67 1.39 3.33 2.50 1.67 4.17 1.67 1.67 2.33 1.67 14 2.78 1.11 4.44 2.78 2.78 1.67 3.33 1.11 2.78 1.42 2.78 15 2.50 2.50 1.94 2.50 1.39 1.67 2.22 2.50 1.94 3.17 3.89 16 3.06 1.94 2.50 1.67 3.33 2.50 2.22 1.67 1.67 2.83 3.33 17 5.00 6.94 2.50 3.33 1.94 2.22 1.39 3.06 1.94 1.25 2.22 18 1.67 2.50 1.39 2.78 2.22 5.56 1.94 2.78 2.22 1.33 1.67 19 2.22 3.61 2.22 1.94 1.94 2.22 1.94 2.22 1.67 1.17 1.39 20 1.11 2.78 2.22 2.50 1.67 1.39 2.22 3.33 1.67 2.96 1.94 21 1.94 1.94 2.50 1.39 1.67 5.56 1.11 3.33 2.78 3.29 2.22 22 3.33 2.50 2.22 2.22 1.67 2.22 2.22 3.33 1.39 1.42 1.11 23 3.33 2.50 2.50 1.94 1.39 1.67 1.39 2.50 1.11 2.42 2.22 24 3.33 2.22 1.67 2.50 1.39 1.94 5.00 2.22 1.67 2.29 2.78 25 3.33 6.94 2.22 3.33 1.94 2.22 1.67 1.11 1.39 0.75 2.22 26 1.94 2.50 2.78 1.94 1.39 2.50 1.39 2.22 1.67 1.25 4.72 27 2.22 1.67 3.06 7.78 1.67 1.94 1.39 1.11 1.94 1.04 2.22 28 5.00 1.39 5.56 2.22 1.39 1.94 1.67 3.61 2.78 1.71 4.44 29 1.11 2.50 2.50 2.22 1.39 1.94 1.39 1.94 1.11 2.46 1.67 30 1.94 1.67 1.67 1.67 1.39 1.67 2.50 1.94 1.94 1.08 3.06 31 4.17 2.22 4.17 1.67 3.33 2.78 2.22 2.50 1.11 1.54 4.17 32 3.06 3.33 5.56 1.94 3.06 1.94 2.22 2.22 1.67 0.21 2.78 33 1.67 2.78 4.72 2.78 2.78 2.22 1.94 1.67 1.11 1.21 2.50 34 2.78 2.78 3.33 2.50 1.67 1.39 1.94 1.67 2.78 2.79 1.67 35 2.22 3.33 2.78 3.33 2.78 1.67 1.94 1.94 0.83 1.04 2.78 36 3.61 3.61 3.89 4.17 2.50 2.22 1.94 1.67 1.94 0.38 2.50 37 3.33 2.22 6.11 4.17 2.50 2.50 1.94 1.94 1.94 0.38 2.50 38 1.94 2.22 5.56 2.50 1.94 2.22 1.94 3.06 2.22 1.58 2.78 39 3.06 2.50 2.50 2.78 2.78 1.39 1.94 4.17 1.39 1.58 3.06 40 2.78 3.06 3.33 1.67 1.94 2.22 1.39 1.67 0.83 1.46 2.78 41 2.78 4.17 3.06 1.67 2.22 1.94 2.78 2.50 1.67 0.88 1.67 42 3.06 1.39 2.78 3.61 3.61 2.22 2.78 2.78 1.67 0.92 1.67 43 1.94 2.50 1.94 1.39 2.22 1.11 1.39 2.22 1.39 0.92 1.67 44 2.22 2.78 5.56 1.11 2.50 1.39 2.78 2.22 1.39 1.04 1.67 45 2.78 4.17 5.56 1.67 4.17 2.22 1.39 1.94 0.00 0.67 2.50 46 1.94 2.78 7.50 3.33 2.78 1.67 1.67 1.11 1.39 0.46 1.94 47 4.72 2.22 1.67 1.67 5.00 2.50 1.67 4.17 1.11 1.96 3.06



74

Appendix 14. Daily wind velocity in Pontianak, West Kalimantan (m/s), 2001-2011

Day No. Year

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 1 2.06 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.06 3.09 1.65 2.57 2.57 1.41 2 2.06 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.06 2.06 3.09 1.89 2.57 1.54 2.06 3 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.06 2.57 3.09 1.67 3.09 2.57 1.29 4 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.41 5 1.54 2.06 2.06 1.54 2.57 2.06 2.57 1.54 3.09 4.12 1.75 6 2.06 2.06 3.09 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.06 2.06 3.60 2.06 2.29 7 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.06 2.06 3.09 3.09 2.10 8 2.06 1.54 2.57 2.57 0.00 3.09 2.06 1.54 3.09 3.09 2.06 9 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.06 1.54 3.09 3.09 2.37

10 1.54 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.06 1.54 2.57 2.57 1.93 11 3.09 2.06 4.12 2.06 2.57 2.06 2.06 2.57 3.09 3.09 3.24 12 2.57 1.54 3.09 2.06 2.06 2.57 3.09 2.06 3.09 3.09 1.98 13 2.57 2.57 3.09 2.06 2.06 3.09 2.57 2.06 3.09 3.09 2.34 14 2.06 2.06 2.57 0.00 2.57 3.09 3.09 2.06 2.57 2.06 1.43 15 2.06 2.57 3.09 2.06 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.06 3.09 2.57 2.79 16 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.06 2.57 3.09 1.71 17 3.09 2.06 1.54 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.57 1.93 2.57 3.60 1.93 18 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.06 3.09 4.63 2.09 19 2.06 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.06 1.54 2.06 3.09 2.34 20 4.12 2.57 2.06 2.06 2.57 3.09 2.06 2.06 3.09 2.57 2.01 21 2.06 2.57 3.09 2.57 2.06 4.12 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.06 1.44 22 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.06 3.60 3.09 1.89 23 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.06 3.09 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.06 1.89 24 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.06 3.09 2.57 1.54 25 2.57 1.54 2.06 2.57 1.54 3.09 2.57 2.06 1.54 2.06 1.80 26 2.57 1.54 2.06 2.06 2.57 3.09 2.57 2.06 2.57 3.09 1.85 27 2.06 2.57 1.54 2.57 2.06 3.09 2.57 2.06 3.09 2.57 2.23 28 3.09 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.06 3.09 2.57 2.31 29 2.06 1.54 2.06 2.57 2.57 3.09 3.09 2.06 2.57 2.57 1.63 30 3.09 2.06 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.57 3.09 2.06 3.09 2.06 1.29 31 3.09 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.06 2.57 2.06 2.06 3.09 2.06 2.28 32 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 4.12 2.06 1.71 33 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.06 2.06 4.63 3.60 1.59 34 2.06 1.54 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.57 3.09 4.12 2.57 1.77 35 4.12 2.06 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.06 3.60 3.09 2.31 36 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 3.60 2.39 37 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.57 3.09 2.06 2.63 38 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.06 2.06 3.09 2.06 2.36 39 3.09 2.06 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.06 2.13 40 5.14 2.06 1.54 2.57 2.57 2.06 3.09 2.06 2.57 2.06 1.39 41 5.14 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.06 3.09 1.54 2.10 42 4.12 2.06 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 3.09 2.57 1.80 43 4.12 2.06 1.54 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.06 3.09 2.06 2.02 44 3.09 2.57 1.54 2.06 2.06 2.57 2.57 2.06 3.09 2.57 2.47 45 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.06 2.06 3.09 3.09 2.06 3.09 2.06 2.22 46 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.06 2.06 2.06 3.09 2.57 2.57 2.06 1.83 47 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.57 2.06 2.57 2.57 3.09 2.06 1.91



75

Appendix 15. Daily wind velocity in Palembang, South Sumatra (m/s), 2005, 2006 & 2012

Day No. Year

2005 2006 2012 1 3.00 2.00 4.00 2 5.00 2.00 3.00 3 5.00 2.00 2.00 4 2.00 3.00 3.00 5 4.00 2.00 2.00 6 4.00 2.00 3.00 7 5.00 2.00 5.00 8 4.00 3.00 7.00 9 2.00 3.00 6.00

10 3.00 3.00 5.00 11 3.00 4.00 3.00 12 3.00 3.00 3.00 13 3.00 2.00 4.00 14 4.00 3.00 3.00 15 3.00 4.00 2.00 16 5.00 4.00 4.00 17 5.00 3.00 2.00 18 4.00 4.00 1.00 19 3.00 3.00 0.00 20 5.00 2.00 3.00 21 5.00 4.00 3.00 22 6.00 5.00 4.00 23 5.00 1.00 4.00 24 5.00 3.00 6.00 25 4.00 4.00 4.00 26 3.00 4.00 3.00 27 3.00 5.00 5.00 28 4.00 4.00 3.00 29 3.00 4.00 4.00 30 3.00 4.00 4.00 31 3.00 5.00 3.00 32 4.00 4.00 2.00 33 3.00 5.00 4.00 34 2.00 4.00 3.00 35 4.00 4.00 3.00 36 4.00 3.00 1.00 37 2.00 4.00 2.00 38 5.00 5.00 2.00 39 3.00 4.00 2.00 40 5.00 4.00 3.00 41 5.00 4.00 3.00 42 5.00 2.00 2.00 43 2.00 2.00 3.00 44 2.00 2.00 2.00 45 2.00 4.00 2.00 46 5.00 3.00 4.00 47 3.00 2.00 2.00



76

Appendix 16. Daily wind velocity in Medan, North Sumatra (m/s), 2005, 2006 & 2012

Day No. Year

2005 2006 2012 1 0.80 1.90 3.40 2 2.00 2.60 2.10 3 3.60 2.60 2.00 4 1.90 3.20 1.80 5 2.20 1.50 2.20 6 1.90 1.90 4.10 7 3.20 2.60 2.30 8 2.30 1.10 2.70 9 1.60 1.60 4.10

10 1.50 1.40 2.80 11 3.20 1.80 2.70 12 3.30 1.70 2.50 13 2.60 2.10 3.60 14 1.50 1.20 2.90 15 1.90 2.10 2.30 16 3.00 1.70 2.40 17 3.00 1.40 2.30 18 4.30 2.00 2.30 19 3.60 2.10 1.90 20 1.40 2.30 2.00 21 1.90 3.10 1.60 22 2.90 3.70 2.90 23 2.20 3.20 1.40 24 1.80 2.50 3.20 25 1.70 1.90 2.90 26 1.30 2.50 2.50 27 2.30 2.80 2.30 28 1.70 3.00 2.80 29 3.40 2.50 2.50 30 2.30 2.30 3.80 31 3.20 2.60 3.20 32 - 2.60 1.90 33 - 2.20 2.70 34 2.50 1.80 4.20 35 1.70 1.30 1.50 36 1.20 2.10 2.70 37 2.00 2.30 2.90 38 2.50 1.80 3.20 39 2.70 1.80 2.60 40 2.00 2.50 2.60 41 2.50 2.80 2.00 42 3.00 2.90 2.90 43 2.10 2.60 2.80 44 2.20 2.80 1.60 45 3.20 2.00 1.90 46 1.90 1.90 1.60 47 1.20 1.70 4.30



77

Appendix 17. Aerial photo of peatland & canals condition in: (a) the MRP Block C, Central Kalimantan and (b) near Pekan Baru, Riau

J/J Pro.100304, HH

111110, NY

(a)

(b)


78

Appendix 18. Peatland fires in the MRP area: (a) Block C north in 2009, and (b) Block C south in

2012

J/J Pro. 090918, HH

120902, NY

(a)

(b)


79

Appendix 19. Map of industrial plantation forest and annual crop plantation in Sumatra

*Update and complete information for Indonesia on http://webgis.dephut.go.id/ditplanjs/index.html

!

!""#$%&'()*&+%$",$-)"&


80

Appendix 20. Brochure JST-JICA project on SATREPS ”Wild Fire and Carbon Management in Peat-Forest in Indonesia”

*Complete brochure on http://www.census.hokudai.ac.jp/html/JSTJICA/material/pamf-e2011.pdf

the influence of precipitation patterns on recent peatland fires in

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