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Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive
Faculty and Researcher Publications Faculty and Researcher Publications Collection
2014-08
The influence of tropical cyclones on the
predictability of midlatitude weather systems
Jones, Sarah
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
http://hdl.handle.net/10945/47732
Sarah Jones 1,2, Doris Anwender 1,3, Pat Harr4, Simon Lang1,5,
Martin Leutbecher5, Melinda Peng6, Carolyn Reynolds6
1 Deutscher Wetterdienst, 2 Karlsruhe Insitut für Technologie , 3 MunichRe, 4Naval Postgraduate School, 5ECMWF, 6 Naval Research Laboratory
PANDOWAE – Predictability and Dynamics of Weather Systems in the Atlantic–European Sector (FOR896)
is a research unit of the German Research Council (DFG)
www.pandowae.de
The influence of tropical cyclones on the predictability of midlatitude weather systems
500 hPa geopot. (556 gpdam) fcst 10 Sep. 12 UTC - 12 Sep. 12 UTC
Maemi Std. dev. 500 hPa geopot. of 51 ensemble members
Spagetti plot of 500 hPa geopotential (top) and Hovmöller of 500 hPa Standard deviation of the ensemble members (bottom)
Time
500 hPa geopot. (556 gpdam) fcst 10 Sep. 12 UTC - 13 Sep. 00 UTC
Std. dev. 500 hPa geopot. of 51 ensemble members
Time
Spagetti plot of 500 hPa geopotential (top) and Hovmöller of 500 hPa Standard deviation of the ensemble members (bottom)
500 hPa geopot. (556 gpdam) fcst 10 Sep. 12 UTC - 13 Sep. 12 UTC
Std. dev. 500 hPa geopot. of 51 ensemble members
Time
Spagetti plot of 500 hPa geopotential (top) and Hovmöller of 500 hPa Standard deviation of the ensemble members (bottom)
500 hPa geopot. (556 gpdam) fcst 10 Sep. 12 UTC - 14 Sep. 00 UTC
Std. dev. 500 hPa geopot. of 51 ensemble members
Time
Spagetti plot of 500 hPa geopotential (top) and Hovmöller of 500 hPa Standard deviation of the ensemble members (bottom)
500 hPa geopot. (556 gpdam) fcst 10 Sep. 12 UTC - 14 Sep. 12 UTC
Std. dev. 500 hPa geopot. of 51 ensemble members
Time
Spagetti plot of 500 hPa geopotential (top) and Hovmöller of 500 hPa Standard deviation of the ensemble members (bottom)
500 hPa geopot. (556 gpdam) fcst 10 Sep. 12 UTC - 15 Sep. 00 UTC
Std. dev. 500 hPa geopot. of 51 ensemble members
Time
Spagetti plot of 500 hPa geopotential (top) and Hovmöller of 500 hPa Standard deviation of the ensemble members (bottom)
500 hPa geopot. (556 gpdam) fcst 10 Sep. 12 UTC - 15 Sep. 12 UTC
Std. dev. 500 hPa geopot. of 51 ensemble members
Time
Spagetti plot of 500 hPa geopotential (top) and Hovmöller of 500 hPa Standard deviation of the ensemble members (bottom)
500 hPa geopot. (556 gpdam) fcst 10 Sep. 12 UTC - 20 Sep. 12 UTC
Std. dev. 500 hPa geopot. of 51 ensemble members
Time
Spagetti plot of 500 hPa geopotential (top) and Hovmöller of 500 hPa Standard deviation of the ensemble members (bottom)
ECMWF analysis: 8 Sept. 2005 12 UTC
Typhoon Nabi (2005)
Tropical cyclone Downstream ridging
Downstream trough
Upstream trough
Colours: Tropopause Poten0al Temperature Contours: Surface pressure
Characteristic development during Extratropical Transition (ET)
Jetstream
Tropical cyclone core region
Tropical cyclone-‐midla1tude interface
Midla1tude impact region
Upstream trough
Characteristic interaction
Jet: advects developing anomaly downstream
Flow assoc. with anomaly and TC An0cyclone: westward propaga0on
Divergent flow: ridge building
Bosart and Lackmann (1995) Henderson et al. (1999), Martius (2001) Röbcke, Jones and Majewski (2004) Riemer, Jones and Davis (2008) Harr and Dea (2009) Riemer and Jones (2010) Scheck, Jones and Juckes (2010a,b)
Excitation of a Rossby wave disturbance
Divergent flow: ridge building
Excitation of a Rossby wave disturbance
Jetstream
Cyclonic TC circula0on enhances trough
Ø Warm frontogenesis and upper-level ridge building (e.g. Bosart and co-workers, Harr and Elsberry 2000) Ø Diabatic heating and new PV tower at warm front (e.g. Agusti-Panareda et al.) Ø Polewards advection of moist air between TC and subtropical high (Torn 2010) Ø Generation of diabatic Rossby waves
Interaction with low-level baroclinic zone
Forecast from 10.09.2003 12 UTC – 14.09.2003 00 UTC
EOF2 19.0 %
EOF1 29.9 %
EOFs identify synoptic-scale patterns
that dominate variability
EOF-Analysis von Θ on PV = 2 pvu
PC1
PC2
Principal Components give contribution of each
ensemble member to EOFs
2 main patterns of variability: shift / amplitude EOF 1 18.9 %
EOF 2 11.5 %
Analysis method: EOF analysis & fuzzy clustering of principal components
Fcst: 10 Sep. 12 UTC – 14 Sep. 00 UTC
Analysed variable: Potential temperature on dynamic tropopause
Anwender, Harr and Jones 2008
PC1
PC2
EOF 1 18.9 %
EOF 2 11.5 %
Analysis method: EOF analysis & fuzzy clustering of principal components
Fcst: 10 Sep. 12 UTC – 14 Sep. 00 UTC
Analysed variable: Potential temperature on dynamic tropopause
PC1
PC2
Anwender, Harr and Jones 2008
2 main patterns of variability: shift / amplitude
EOF 1 18.9 %
EOF 2 11.5 %
Analysis method: EOF analysis & fuzzy clustering of principal components
Fcst: 10 Sep. 12 UTC – 14 Sep. 00 UTC
Analysed variable: Potential temperature on dynamic tropopause
PC1
PC2
Anwender, Harr and Jones 2008
2 main patterns of variability: shift / amplitude
EOF 1 18.9 %
EOF 2 11.5 %
Analysis method: EOF analysis & fuzzy clustering of principal components
Fcst: 10 Sep. 12 UTC – 14 Sep. 00 UTC
Analysed variable: Potential temperature on dynamic tropopause
PC1
PC2
Anwender, Harr and Jones 2008
2 main patterns of variability: shift / amplitude
EOF 1 18.9 %
EOF 2 11.5 %
Analysis method: EOF analysis & fuzzy clustering of principal components
Fcst: 10 Sep. 12 UTC – 14 Sep. 00 UTC
Analysed variable: Potential temperature on dynamic tropopause
PC1
PC2
Anwender, Harr and Jones 2008
2 main patterns of variability: shift / amplitude
Anwender, Harr and Jones 2008
Tropopause pattern linked to development during ET
Potential temperature on dynamic tropopause (shaded) – surface pressure (contours)
Anwender, Harr and Jones 2008
SVs identify the fastest-growing perturbations within a finite time interval in a linear framework. To initialize the EPS SVs are calculated for different target regions with an optimization time of 48 hours.
Extratropical SVs
Extratropical SVs
Singular vectors in the ECMWF EPS
Lang, Jones, Leutbecher, Peng and Reynolds (2012)
Composites (16. Sep. - 24. Sep.) of vertical integrated Total Energy of initial SVs 1-5
Moist TL95 ≈ 210km
Dry TL95 ≈ 210km
Moist TL255 ≈ 80km
Dry TL255 ≈ 80km
.2
.2
.2
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4 .4
.6
.6
10°S10°S
5°S 5°S
0°0°
5°N 5°N
10°N10°N
10°W
10°W 5°W
5°W 0°
0° 5°E
5°E 10°E
10°E
95
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
108
200
.2
.2
.2
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4 .4
.6
.6
10°S10°S
5°S 5°S
0°0°
5°N 5°N
10°N10°N
10°W
10°W 5°W
5°W 0°
0° 5°E
5°E 10°E
10°E
95
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
108
200
.2
.2 .2
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.6
.6
.8
10°S10°S
5°S 5°S
0°0°
5°N 5°N
10°N10°N
10°W
10°W 5°W
5°W 0°
0° 5°E
5°E 10°E
10°E
159
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
108
200
.2
.2 .2
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.6
.6
.8
10°S10°S
5°S 5°S
0°0°
5°N 5°N
10°N10°N
10°W
10°W 5°W
5°W 0°
0° 5°E
5°E 10°E
10°E
159
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
108
200
.2
.2.2
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.6
.6
10°S10°S
5°S 5°S
0°0°
5°N 5°N
10°N10°N
10°W
10°W 5°W
5°W 0°
0° 5°E
5°E 10°E
10°E
255
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
108
200
.2
.2.2
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.6
.6
10°S10°S
5°S 5°S
0°0°
5°N 5°N
10°N10°N
10°W
10°W 5°W
5°W 0°
0° 5°E
5°E 10°E
10°E
255
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
108
200
Fig. 3. Composites of the sum of the vertically integrated total energy (in J kg�1; shaded)of the leading five dry (a, c, e) and moist (b, d, f) initial SVs for initialisation from 16.09.200612 UTC to 24.09.2006 12 UTC and PV (in PVU, black contours) on model level 50 (� 850hPa). a) and b) TL95 resolution, c) and d) TL159 resolution and e) and f) TL255 resolution.
42
.2.2
.2
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4 .4
.6
.6
10°S10°S
5°S 5°S
0°0°
5°N 5°N
10°N10°N
10°W
10°W 5°W
5°W 0°
0° 5°E
5°E 10°E
10°E
95
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
108
200
.2
.2
.2
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4 .4
.6
.6
10°S10°S
5°S 5°S
0°0°
5°N 5°N
10°N10°N
10°W
10°W 5°W
5°W 0°
0° 5°E
5°E 10°E
10°E
95
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
108
200
.2
.2 .2
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.6
.6
.8
10°S10°S
5°S 5°S
0°0°
5°N 5°N
10°N10°N
10°W
10°W 5°W
5°W 0°
0° 5°E
5°E 10°E
10°E
159
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
108
200
.2
.2 .2
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.6
.6
.8
10°S10°S
5°S 5°S
0°0°
5°N 5°N
10°N10°N
10°W
10°W 5°W
5°W 0°
0° 5°E
5°E 10°E
10°E
159
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
108
200
.2
.2.2
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.6
.6
10°S10°S
5°S 5°S
0°0°
5°N 5°N
10°N10°N
10°W
10°W 5°W
5°W 0°
0° 5°E
5°E 10°E
10°E
255
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
108
200
.2
.2.2
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.4
.6
.6
10°S10°S
5°S 5°S
0°0°
5°N 5°N
10°N10°N
10°W
10°W 5°W
5°W 0°
0° 5°E
5°E 10°E
10°E
255
12
24
36
48
60
72
84
108
200
Fig. 3. Composites of the sum of the vertically integrated total energy (in J kg�1; shaded)of the leading five dry (a, c, e) and moist (b, d, f) initial SVs for initialisation from 16.09.200612 UTC to 24.09.2006 12 UTC and PV (in PVU, black contours) on model level 50 (� 850hPa). a) and b) TL95 resolution, c) and d) TL159 resolution and e) and f) TL255 resolution.
42
Lang, Jones, Leutbecher, Peng and Reynolds (2012)
Singular vectors optimized for tropical belt Lang, Jones, Leutbecher, Peng and Reynolds (2012)
3D Structure TL255 SVs - 17.09.2006 12 UTC
Fig. 5. Total energy (colored surfaces) of the leading TL255 SV from 17 September 200600 UTC and potential vorticity (1PVU; grey surface) of accompanying trajectory. a) initialmoist SV, b) initial dry SV, c) evolved moist SV and d) evolved dry SV; view is from thesouth. e) and f) as c) and d) but view is from the southwest top corner. The colored surfacesenclose 60% of the total energy of the SV. For more explanation see text.
44
Fig. 5. Total energy (colored surfaces) of the leading TL255 SV from 17 September 200600 UTC and potential vorticity (1PVU; grey surface) of accompanying trajectory. a) initialmoist SV, b) initial dry SV, c) evolved moist SV and d) evolved dry SV; view is from thesouth. e) and f) as c) and d) but view is from the southwest top corner. The colored surfacesenclose 60% of the total energy of the SV. For more explanation see text.
44
Moist (TL255) Dry (TL255)
Grey : PV Colored : Total Energy
0 h
48 h
Lang, Jones, Leutbecher, Peng and Reynolds (2012)
Methods used at ECMWF
ANALYSIS UNCERTAINTY: -‐ Ensemble of Data Assimila1ons (EDA): ensemble of 10 4DVar with perturbed observa0ons and stochas0c physics -‐ Singular Vectors (SVINI): fastest growing perturba0ons (linear framework) MODEL ERROR: -‐ Stochas1c Kine1c Energy BackscaLer (SKEB): scheme to model e.g. errors by discre0za0on -‐ Stochas1c perturba1ons of parameterised tendencies (SPPT): scheme to model errors caused by parametriza0on of processes
What impact do the different methods have on tropical cyclone forecasts?
Lang, Leutbecher, Jones (2012)
Experiments to quantify impact:
5 Different Ensemble Setups, 4 with only one perturbation method active-> equivalent to approx. 3500 individual global weather forecasts (30 km resolution, 62 vertical levels) and 1400 individual 4DVar analysis.
Analysed perturbation growth and patterns for 13 tropical cyclone cases:
Energy Growth Azimuthally integrated perturba0on energy aNer 48 hours
Lang, Leutbecher, Jones (2012)
TC track and intensity spread:
Ensemble using all four perturbation methods shows nice track error / spread correspondence
Lang, Leutbecher, Jones (2012)
L
L L
L
Factors modifying waveguide disturbances
Evolution of Rossby waves along the waveguide
Downstream impact of diabatically modified
PV anomalies
T-NAWDEX/DOWNSTREAM 2016
L
L L
L
US: GV
GV: HALO
UK: BAE 146
Partners o Germany: DLR IPA, FX, KIT Karlsruhe, Univ. Mainz o ETH Zürich o US: NPS, NCAR, OU, Princeton, MIT, NOAA o French, UK, CAN contributions envisaged o Links to national weather services: DWD, ECMWF
CAN: NRC Convair 580
Ideal operation period in Sep/Oct 2016: • strongest storm activity • Tropical Cyclones • Polar Vortices
T-NAWDEX/DOWNSTREAM 2016
GB FE 32
Summary Interaction of tropical cyclones and midlatitude wave guide leads to excitation / modification of Rossby wave trains Process often not well captured in NWP models Advances in design of EPS allow for better quantification of uncertainty Additional insight through T-NAWDEX / DOWNSTREAM & further NWP experiments