the interagency fuels treatment decisionthe interagency ......the interagency fuels treatment...

The Interagency Fuels Treatment DecisionThe Interagency Fuels Treatment Decision Support System (IFT-DSS)

H. Michael RauscherProject Manager

Joint Fire Science Programg

John Cissel, Timothy SwedbergCommunications Director and Program Manager

Joint Fire Science ProgramJoint Fire Science Program

Tami H. Funk, Sean M. Raffuse, Stacy Drury, Lyle R. Chinkin Sonoma Technology, Inc.gy

Petaluma, California

October 2009

908038-3587

Overview of Presentation

• Brief introduction and backgroundBrief introduction and background• What does IFT-DSS do?

H i IFT DSS l t d t th t ?• How is IFT-DSS related to other systems?• The stakeholder operational environment• The vision for organizing fire related

software

2

Introduction and BackgroundSoftware Tools and Systems (STS) StudySoftware Tools and Systems (STS) Study

Software

IFT-DSSArchitecture

DesignSoftware Engineering Instituteperformed strategic analysis of

Sonoma Technology, Inc.

IFT-DSSConceptual

Design

Current Practices& Needs Assessment

Fuels Treatment Planning Decision Support Process

Define project, vegetation data,landscape and scale

Define projectanalysis

Retrievevegetation,

geophysical,& weather data

Generatesummaryreports

Definearea of interest

(AOI)

View/manipulatedata as needed


Define project, vegetation data,landscape and scale


Retrievevegetation,




(AOI)


(AOI)

View/manipulatedata as neededView/manipulatedata as needed

ArchitectureStudy Graphical User Interface

(User Interaction)

Control Database(Business Process Control)

Dispatcher(Business Process Management & Information Flow)

Data and Software Services(Business Services)

Geospatial Database(Data Storage and Access Service)

Graphical User Interface(User Interaction)

Graphical User Interface(User Interaction)









performed strategic analysis ofproblem space

Document

Design treatment strategies

Simulate & analyzefire behavior

Current year datapreparation & quality control

Simulate alternateweather

scenario(s)

= human mediated action

Simulate vegetation,geophysical, and fuel conditions

landscape, and scale

Analyze fire effectsand/or risk


Treelistdata

LANDFIREdata

View/assessvegetation

data

Update treelistdata (FFE-FVS)

Imputationanalysis

ConsiderDisturbance

Updatedvegetation

data Prepare data forinput to fire behavior

model


UpdateLANDFIRE data

View/assessoutputdata



Meets geophysical,sociological, ecological

target conditions?

YESAnalysis complete

generate finaldocumentation

Performbenefit/lossrisk analysis Identify/prioritize

treatmentareas

Develop compositeindex of values

affected


Inputvalues at

risk

Selecttreatment

areas

Selecttreatments

to apply

FFE-FVS

FCCS

Simulate post-treatment vegetation

and fuels data

Manualadjustment

FFE-FVS

FCCS


NO





scenario(s)



landscape, and scale



Treelistdata

Treelistdata

LANDFIREdata

LANDFIREdata


data


data


Imputationanalysis

ConsiderDisturbance

Updatedvegetation

data

Updatedvegetation

data Prepare data forinput to fire behavior

model


UpdateLANDFIRE data

UpdateLANDFIRE data







target conditions?



Performbenefit/lossrisk analysis


treatmentareas

Identify/prioritizetreatment

areas


affected


affected


Inputvalues at

risk

Inputvalues at

risk

Selecttreatment

areas

Selecttreatment

areas

Selecttreatments

to apply

Selecttreatments

to apply

FFE-FVS

FCCS


and fuels data


and fuels data

Manualadjustment

Manualadjustment

FFE-FVS

FCCS


NO

Recommendations:SOA framework neededBlueSky on right trackJFSP funds BlueSky SOA as test

STS Study – Phase I STS Study – Phase II

JFSP funds BlueSky SOA as test

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar2007 2008 2009

February 2007 February 2008 June 2008 March 2009

3

yInitiation of

Phase I of theSTS Study

yConclusion ofPhase I of the

STS Study

Initiation ofPhase II of the

STS Study

Conclusion ofPhase II of the

STS Study

STS Phase III Plan

• Dec 2009: Proof of Concept v 1 ready forDec 2009: Proof of Concept v.1 ready for the Savannah Fire Ecology Conference

• May 2010: Proof of Concept version of• May 2010: Proof of Concept version of IFT-DSS completedO t 2009 N 2010 L t t t• Oct 2009 – Nov 2010: Long term contract team assembled and contract put out for bid ith F t S i ibid with Forest Service as managing partner

4

Current State of the Fuels Treatment CommunityCommunity

• Currently an assortment of data softwareCurrently an assortment of data, software applications and systems

Not all are accessible to the communityM t bl ifiMost are problem-specificSome are comprehensive but only

support specific data and use-casesIt is difficult to “string” them togetherIt is difficult to string them togetherNot always supported

5


• What does this mean for the userWhat does this mean for the user community?

Users use what they knowUsers use what they knowUse tools that are user-friendly, simpleMay not know that other tools existLimited guidance on which to use

Summary of Survey Respondents

Bureau of Land

~90%

nden

ts

~90%

nden

ts

A lot of time is spent “stringing” tools together for specific purposes

A lot of time is spent acquiring and preparing data

National Park Service

13

Bureau of Land Management

11

~10 20%

~20-50%

Perc

ent o

f Res

pon

~10 20%

~20-50%

Perc

ent o

f Res

pon

preparing dataFish & Wildlife

4

Forest Service 19BEHAVE FOFEM, FIREFAMILY+,

FARSITE, FLAMMAP,FMA+, FVS/FFE,

RERAP, NEXUS,CONSUME, FRCC,SIS, FFI/Firemon,

~10-20%PBEHAVE FOFEM, FIREFAMILY+,

FARSITE, FLAMMAP,FMA+, FVS/FFE,


BEHAVE FOFEM, FIREFAMILY+,FARSITE, FLAMMAP,

FMA+, FVS/FFE,


~10-20%PIFT-DSS must facilitate the most

difficult and time consuming

6

Total Responses = 47 LANDFIRE data,ArcGIS

WIMS data,Google Earth

LANDFIRE data,ArcGIS


LANDFIRE data,ArcGIS


gtasks to ensure success


• What about the existing comprehensiveWhat about the existing comprehensive systems that “string” models together?

ArcFuels, INFORMS, LANDFIRE-IFP = VERY USEFUL SCIENCE

- Some are agency specificSome require “expert” knowledge- Some require expert knowledge

- Do not address all fuels treatmentuse cases

User groups are smallSystems are not widely adopted

Do not facilitate collaborationSystems don’t “talk” to each other

7

Systems don t talk to each other


• Brief introduction and backgroundBrief introduction and background• What does IFT-DSS do for Users?


software

8

IFT-DSS is designed to solve these 7 fuels treatment issuestreatment issues

1 Locate needed data and prepare it for use1. Locate needed data and prepare it for use

2. Find high fire hazard areas within an area of interest

3. Analyze placement of fuels treatments spatially

4. Gauge fuels-treatment effectiveness over timeg

5. Support prescribed burn planning

6. Support risk assessment = f(prob(ignition) & value gain/loss)

7. Support user created solutions for unique situations

9


Define project, vegetation data,landscape, and scale


Retrievevegetation,




(AOI)

View/manipulatedata as needed


Define project, vegetation data,landscape, and scale


Retrievevegetation,




(AOI)


(AOI)

View/manipulatedata as neededView/manipulatedata as needed

Treelistdata

LANDFIREdata


data


Imputationanalysis

ConsiderDisturbance

Updatedvegetation

data Prepare data for


U d t

Treelistdata

Treelistdata

LANDFIREdata

LANDFIREdata


data


data


Imputationanalysis

ConsiderDisturbance

Updatedvegetation

data

Updatedvegetation

data Prepare data for


U d tU d t



input to fire behaviormodel

UpdateLANDFIRE data


GeneratesummaryreportsSimulate & analyze

fire behavior


input to fire behaviormodel

UpdateLANDFIRE data

UpdateLANDFIRE data





scenario(s)Simulate & analyzefire behavior



target conditions?



Generate

Inputvalues at

risk NO


scenario(s)Simulate & analyzefire behavior




target conditions?



Generate

Inputvalues at

risk

Inputvalues at

risk NO



treatmentareas


affected

summaryreports

risk NO


Performbenefit/lossrisk analysis


treatmentareas

Identify/prioritizetreatment

areas


affected


affected

summaryreports

riskrisk NO


Selecttreatment

areas

Selecttreatments

to apply

FFE-FVS

FCCS

Simulate post-t t t t ti

FFE-FVS Generatesummary


Selecttreatment

areas

Selecttreatment

areas

Selecttreatments

to apply

Selecttreatments

to apply

FFE-FVS

FCCS



FFE-FVS Generatesummary

10= human mediated action


treatment vegetationand fuels data

Manualadjustment FCCS

reports





Manualadjustment

Manualadjustment FCCS

reports


• Brief introduction and backgroundBrief introduction and background• What does IFT-DSS do for Users?


software

11

Many Systems - Little Interactiony y

Fuels Systems ReportingSystems

Non-FuelsS tSOA Web-based

EMDS/HFPAS

Systems Systems

FPA FPAiRWin

SOA Web based

National

Regional NFPORS

Others

WFDSSBLUESKY

Regional

Sub-Regional

Project Level IFT-DSS

Base Models & DataStand alone

Project Level

Fl M LANDFIRE

IFP-LANDFIRE

INFORMSARCFUELS

RegionalSub-Regional

P j t L l

FlamMapFOFEMCONSUMEFVS/FFENEXUS

LANDFIREWIMSFFI/FIREMONFSVegFAMWEB

12

ARCFUELSProject Level FMA+FCCS…….

…….




software

13

Th St k h ld O ti l E i t

Fire and Fuel

The Stakeholder Operational Environment

Fire and Fuel Operations Managers

(Users)

I t F l

Scientist Developers

(Service Providers)

Governance through

Agency Senior Management

includingN W C G Interagency Fuel

Treatment Decision Support System

Coordination Team(Coordinators)

Providers)N W C G(Leaders)

DatabaseStewards

InformatiionTechnologists

14

(Service Providers)

gand Software

Managers(Enablers)

What Does IFT-DSS Do for Stakeholders?

• Advantages for UsersUniversal access and version control through the Internet– Universal access and version control through the Internet

– Easy access to the necessary available data– Choice of software tools from a common interface– Easy setups for the most common analysesEasy setups for the most common analyses– Custom solutions for advanced users for unique situations– A single Graphical User Interface to master

• Advantages for Service Providers– Provides developers with software-software communications

standards– Allows developers to improve functionality behind the scenes– Provides developers instant access to a large user community– Reduces the cost of developing and fielding software tools

U t t ti ll t t d l i di ll

15

– Useage reports automatically sent to developers periodically

What Does IFT-DSS Do for Stakeholders?

• Advantages for the IT/Software ManagersEnsures that security requirements are met– Ensures that security requirements are met

– Ensures that agency IT policy has been followed

• Advantages for the Governance Community• Advantages for the Governance Community– Organizes all fuels management software services into a single

SOA system making supervision manageable– Enables informed management decisions on funding, expansion g g, p

of functions, and prioritization of effort– Enhances ability to provide guidance on process and quality

controlIncreases agency operating capabilities by focusing scarce– Increases agency operating capabilities by focusing scarce resources on high priority functions

– A Proof of Concept test case, along with WFDSS and Bluesky, of whether a few SOA systems can organize all or most fire

l t d ft t l

16

related software tools

The Diffusion of IFT-DSS Awareness & Use in a Stakeholder CommunityUse in a Stakeholder Community

Late Majority800

Awareness

UnderstandingEarly Majority

100

Early Adopters

Trial Use

Adoptiony p

44

Innovators 13

17



H i IFT DSS l t d t th t ?• How is IFT-DSS related to other systems?• The stakeholder operational environment• The vision for organizing fire and fuels

related software

18

Vision for the Fire & Fuels Community y

Fuels treatment planners have a needand they use what they knowand they use what they know

19

Scientists and data providers create tools


New technologies allowexisting tools to be wrapped

(standard interfaces)

20

Scientists and data providers create tools


Standardized interfaces

e.g., IFT-DSS e.g., WFDSS

Standardized interfaces also allow inter-system

communication

21Scientists and data providers create tools


User communities

InformaSOA Systems

IFT-DSS WFDSSBlueSky

ation Techn

(IFT-DSS, BlueSky, WFDSS, …..)

nology & GCommon Interface

S d d

Governance

Capabilities/Services

Standards(allows for connections)

22Scientists and data providers create tools

e

Capabilities/Services(algorithms, models, data)

Acknowledgementsg

• John Cissel and Tim Swedberg (JFSP)g ( )• Erik Christiansen (NWCG FMC)• JFSP fuels treatment work group• JFSP fuels treatment work group • STS Study advisory committee• 49 field fuels treatment specialists• ~15 software developersp• IT specialists

23

Documentation produced from the STS Study can be found at:http://frames.nbii.gov/JFSP/STS_Study

IFT-DSS Online Documentation

• Complete Documentation of all products produced by the IFT-DSS project can be found online:found online:

– frames nbii gov/jfsp/sts study– frames.nbii.gov/jfsp/sts_study

• Mockup version of the Graphical UserMockup version of the Graphical User Interface is available:

24

– staging.sonomatech.com/iftdss

Appendix: Workflow Scenariospp

Intended to capture the problem-solving needs of the fuels treatment analysis and planning community

Includes:• Data acquisition and preparation• Strategic planning

S ti ll li it f l t t t i t• Spatially explicit fuels treatment assignment• Fuels treatment over time• Prescribed burn planning• Prescribed burn planning• Risk assessment

25

Data Acquisition and Preparation (1 of 2)q p

Objective: Acquire, prepare, and assure the quality of vegetation data for use in fuels treatment planning.

Vegetation/Inputs Vegetation/Fuels Data Types Workflow Outputs

Tree-lists FSVeg point data FSVeg spatial user upload

Growth Imputation QC/edit Current, complete fuels data forupload

Gridded fuels LANDFIRE user upload QC/edit

fuels data for further analysis

26

Data Acquisition and Preparation (2 of 2)q p

Objective: Acquire, prepare, and assure the quality of vegetation data for use in fuels treatment planningvegetation data for use in fuels treatment planning.

27

Strategic Planning (1 of 3)g g ( )

Objective: Identify high fire hazard areas within an area of interest and identify where further analysis may be warranted based on potential fire hazard. High fire hazard is expressed by high potential fire behavior and/or undesirable fire effects.

Inputs Vegetation/ Fuels Data Types Workflow Outputs

Current, complete fuels; topography

Tree-list Polygon data

LANDFIRE grid data

Fire Behavior Fire Effects QC

Maps and data of fire behavior and fire effects

28


Objective: Identify high fire hazard areas within an area of interest and identify where further analysis may be warranted based on potential fire hazard. High fire hazard is expressed by high potential fire behavior and/or undesirable fire effects.

29


Example of strategic planning output

30

Spatially Explicit Fuels Treatment Assignment (1 of 3)Treatment Assignment (1 of 3)

Objective: (1) Simulate fuels treatment placement in areas of hi h fi h d ithi f i t t d (2) i l t thigh fire hazard within an area of interest and (2) simulate post-treatment influences on fire behavior and fire effects potentials.

Inputs Vegetation/Fuels Data Types Workflow Outputs

Fire Behavior/Effects/MTT User Treatment Fire Behavior/Effects/MTT Maps and data of Treatment Fire Behavior/Effects/MTT

Fire Behavior/Effects/MTT FVS Treatment Fire Behavior/Effects/MTT

Current, complete fuels; topography

Tree-list polygon data

LANDFIRE Fire Behavior/Effects/MTT TOM

treatment locations; pre- and post-treatment fire behavior and fire effectsFire Behavior/Effects/MTT TOM

Fire Behavior/Effects/MTT effects

31


Objective: (1) Simulate fuels treatment placement in areas of hi h fi h d ithi f i t t d (2) Si l t thigh fire hazard within an area of interest and (2) Simulate post-treatment influences on fire behavior and fire effects potentials.

32


Example of fuels treatment optimizationP t t t P t t t tPre‐treatment Post‐treatment

33

Simulated fireline intensity for a hypothetical landscape. Light colored areas indicate low fireline intensity potentials and dark colors represent high fireline intensity potentials (from Finney et al., 2006).

Fuels Treatment Effectiveness Over Time (1 of 3)Over Time (1 of 3)

Objective: Evaluate the temporal durability of fuels treatments; i h l i d d ill ii.e., how long, in years to decades, a treatment will continue to lower potential fire behavior and fire effects.

Inputs Vegetation/Fuels Data Types Workflow Outputs

Current, Tree-list polygon data Growth Fire Behavior Fire Effects Graphs and data

of fuels firecomplete fuels; topography

User supplied data

Growth Fire Behavior Fire Effects Growth…

of fuels, fire behavior, and fire effects over time

34


Objective: Evaluate the temporal durability of fuels treatments; i h l i d d ill ii.e., how long, in years to decades, a treatment will continue to lower potential fire behavior and fire effects.

35


Example of vegetation growth over time

Post‐treatment

+10 years10 years

+ 20 years

36

+ 20 years

Prescribed Burn Planning (1 of 3)g

Objective: Provide the information needed to plan, document, d d d ib d fiand conduct a proposed, prescribed fire.

Inputs Vegetation/Fuels Data Types Processes Outputs

Fuels; range of User entered single Fire Behavior Fire Effects QC

Graphs and data of fire behavior and fire effectsg

weather conditions

gstand level data Fire Behavior Fire Effects QC and fire effects

over a range of conditions

37


Objective: Provide the information needed to plan, document, d d d ib d fiand conduct a proposed, prescribed fire.

38


39

Risk Assessment

Objective: Provide a probabilistic risk assessment for fuels treatment planning.

Vegetation/Inputs Vegetation/Fuels Data Types Processes Outputs

C rrentTree-list polygon data Fire Beha ior MTT

Maps and data for fire beha iorCurrent,

complete fuels; topography

data

LANDFIRE data

User supplied data

Fire Behavior MTT Burn Probability Mode QC

for fire behavior, burn probability, and values at risk

Fire risk = (burn probability) × (fire hazard index) × (value at risk)( p y) ( ) ( )

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the interagency fuels treatment decisionthe interagency ......the interagency fuels treatment...

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