THE INVISIBLE WAND

Adaptive Co-Management

as an Emergent Strategy

in Complex Bio-Economic SystemsA Paper written by

Jack Ruitenbeek and Cynthia Cartier

Centre for International Forestry Research (CIFOR) Occasional Paper No. 34, October 2001

Presentation by Rowan B. Martin

Paradigm: Of Panarchies and Complex Systems

illustrated with René Magritte’s paintings

Paradigm: Of Panarchies and Complex Systems

The local resource user often has the keenest

insights into how things work in the local system . . .

. . . and the insights may be surprising

“The fisheries are collapsing because of the nude sunbathers on the beach” – Saudi Fisherman

Paradigm: Of Panarchies and Complex Systems

Simple cause-effect models of yesteryear are

falling by the wayside . . .

E = mc2

Just as Newton’s laws of physics gave way to

Einstein’s Special Theory of Relativity . . .

and this in turn gave way to a General Theory . . . (F) = ()

. . . we are now entering an era where the

science of complexity has found its toe-hold

Paradigm: Of Panarchies and Complex Systems

bothcreates and conserves because the interactions

among cycles combine learning

Panarchy describes the evolving nature of complex adaptive systems. The panarchy

which is the complex adaptive system of ecology,economy and society

with continuity

within and acrosslevels and scales

New structures and processes emerge from the interaction

of adaptive cycles

Paradigm: Of Panarchies and Complex Systems

Resilience (or the lack thereof) is manifest inthe interaction of adaptive cycles

– fast cycles provide variability and novelty for experiments– slower cycles provide persistence and stability while

accumulating and conserving successful experiments

– slow cycles protect while the fast cycles innovate

– diversity at any level, whether of species or culturesor ideas, increases adaptive capacity

Resilience is at the heart of sustainability

Paradigm: Of Panarchies and Complex Systems

In a complex adaptive system the players seek to adapt

Adaptation occurs to achieve some desirable level of success or performance

Strategies which do not work disappear

Learning happens

Variation and experimentation drive the learning

By appreciating how knowledge and noveltyis created and incorporated it may be possibleto identify points where human intervention

can improve system resilience and sustainability

Paradigm: Of Panarchies and Complex Systems

Lessons from complex systems may be

directly transferable between systems

1. A balance is needed between exploitation of existing ideas and the exploration for new ideas

1

2

3

4FREQUENCY

SPECTRUM

ω 2ω 5ω 10ω

It is unwise for any system to remain locked for too long at either end of the frequency spectrum

Paradigm: Of Panarchies and Complex Systems – LESSONS

2. Networks must foster trust and cooperation

Such networks – – harness complexity in a positive manner

– build social capital

– this capital facilitates adaptation

– it is easier to destroy this capital than to create it

A system which is only partially evolved may be best left alone to continue evolving at its own pace rather than suffer attempts

to accelerate its evolution

. . . added social capital

Here, the net outcome of experimentation lies above the mean, resulting in . . .

Paradigm: Of Panarchies and Complex Systems – LESSONS

3. Assess strategies in the light of how consequences spread

– look for linkages in unusual places

e.g. the Saudi fisherman

Paradigm: Of Panarchies and Complex Systems – LESSONS

4. Promote effective neighbourhoods

People often congregate with like-minded people . . .

. . . but they also like a bit of variety or diversity

Complex systems which lack this component are often lousy –

and for the population as a whole

– both for the individual

Paradigm: Of Panarchies and Complex Systems – LESSONS

5. Use social criteria to promote the spread of valued traitsStudies of incentives and disincentives in bio-economic

systems tend to focus on monetary reward

6. In assessing progress towards high-level goalsseek simple lower level criteria

which tell the same story