John Ainsley

February 1, 2012

The Iowa Caucus

• First state in the country to have a caucus or primary• Media Attention• Momentum• Results could make or break a candidates campaign

The Importance of Iowa

• Pros:• Voters will get more information before they cast their vote• More motivated participants in a caucus• Everybody's vote will count due to realigning with stronger

candidates. • Cons:• Democratic participants have to cast their vote out loud.• Very time consuming• No absentee ballots.

A Little Room For Debate

• Conservative Candidates.• Both Social and Fiscally

Who Typically Does Well?

• Victorious Democrats:• 1976: Uncommitted-37%, Jimmy Carter*-28%• 1980: Jimmy Carter- 59%, Ted Kennedy- 31%• 1984: Walter Mondale- 49%, Gary Hart- 17%• 1988: Dick Gephardt- 31%, Paul Simon- 27%, Michael Dukakis-

22%• 1992: Tom Harkin- 76%, Uncommitted-12%, Paul Tsongas- 4%, Bill

Clinton*- 3%• 1996: Bill Clinton*- 98%, Uncommitted-1%, Ralph Nader-1%• 2000: Al Gore- 63%, Bill Bradley-37%• 2004: John Kerry- 38%, John Edwards- 32%• 2008: Barack Obama*- 38%, John Edwards-30%, Hillary Clinton-

29%

• Success in choosing the party nominee: 66%

Iowa Through The Years

• Victorious Republicans• 1976 (Straw Poll of Sample of 62 Precincts): Gerald Ford- 264,

Ronald Reagan- 248• 1980: George H.W. Bush- 32%, Ronald Reagan*- 30%• 1984: Ronald Reagan*-Unopposed• 1988: Bob Dole-37%, Pat Robertson-25%, George H.W. Bush*-

19%• 1992: George H.W. Bush- Unopposed• 1996: Bob Dole- 26%, Pat Buchanan-23%• 2000: George W. Bush*- 41%, Steve Forbes -31%• 2004: George W. Bush*- Unopposed• 2008: Mike Huckabee-34%, Mitt Romney-25%, Fred Thompson-13%,

John McCain-13%

• Success in choosing the party nominee: 66%

Iowa Through The Years (continued)

• Republicans: Democrats:• Mitt Romney Barack Obama• Newt Gingrich• Ron Paul• Michele Bachmann• Rick Santorum• Jon Huntsman• Rick Perry

The Candidates in 2012

July 5 (Mason-Dixon Polling)Bachmann-32%, Romney-29%, Santorum-6%, Paul-3%, Gingrich-2%, Cain-1%, Huntsman-0%, Perry-0% August 4 (Rasmussen Reports)Bachmann-22%, Romney-21%, Paul-16%, Perry-12%, Gingrich-5%, Cain-4%, Huntsman-2%, Santorum- --August 31 (Rasmussen Reports)Perry-29%, Bachmann-18%, Romney-17%, Paul-14%, Santorum-4%, Cain-4%, Huntsman-3%, Gingrich-2%October 3 (NBC News)Romney-26%, Cain-20%, Paul-12%, Bachmann-11%, Perry-11%, Gingrich-5%, Santorum-3%, Huntsman-1%November 3 (Insider Advantage)Cain-30%, Romney-15%, Gingrich-12%, Paul-9%, Bachmann-8%, Perry-6%, Santorum-5%, Huntsman-2%

Leading Up to January 3rd

November 30th (CBS News)Gingrich-31%, Romney-17%, Paul-16%, Perry-11%, Bachmann-9%, Santorum-4%, Huntsman-1%.December 13 (Rasmussen Reports)Romney-23%, Gingrich-20%, Paul-18%, Perry-10%, Bachmann-9%, Santorum-6%, Huntsman-5%December 27 (NBC News)Romney-23%, Paul-21%, Santorum-15%, Perry-14%, Gingrich-13%, Bachmann-6%, Huntsman-2%

A Month Before the Big Day

• Republicans: Democrats:• Rick Santorum- 25% ( 29,839 votes) Barack

Obama- Unopposed• Mitt Romney- 25% (29,805 votes)• Ron Paul- 21% (26,036 votes)• Newt Gingrich- 13% (16,163 votes)• Rick Perry-10% (12,557 votes)• Michele Bachmann- 5% (6,046 votes)• Jon Huntsman- .6% (739 votes)

2012: The Results

• Dollars spent on TV adds per vote.• Santorum: 15 Dollars• Romney: 132 Dollars• Paul: 52 Dollars• Gingrich: 29 Dollars• Perry: 332 Dollars• Bachmann: 10 Dollars• Huntsman: 0 Dollars

• Total Spent on TV adds• Santorum: $448,035• Romney: $3,934,260• Paul: $1,353,872• Gingrich: $468,727• Perry: $4,168,924• Bachmann: $60,460• Huntsman: $0

Campaign Spending $ $ $