The Judges

Kyoto Treaty or Not?

Indisputable Facts

Greenhouse gases are increasing with human activities:

Industrial (factories)Transportation (auto emissions)Agriculture (deforestation)

Facts: Temperature

The temperatures are rising:0.5º-1.0ºF since late 19th CenturyTen warmest years of 20th Century occurred in last decade1998 was the warmest year in recorded historySnow cover and ice has decreased in the Northern Hemisphere

Facts: Global Temperature

Since 1979, scientists agree that doubling of carbon dioxide increases earth’s surface temperature by 3-8ºF. Studies show warming likely to occur quicker over land than seas.

Facts: Precipitation

Precipitation has increased 1% in the world during the last century; 5-10% in the USAHigh latitudes have significant increases in rainfallStorms have become more frequent and extremeRainfall has decreased in tropical areas

Facts: Sea Level

The sea level has risen worldwide 15-20 cm (6-8 in.) in the last centuryMelting of mountain glaciers has contributed to 2-5 cm of the increase in sea levelAlong U.S. coast, the sea level has been rising 2.5-3 mm

Impact of Changes

Increase in temperature causes soil to dry, which would result in improper vegetationIf sea level rises 1 yard, then many islands will be floodedCoral bleaching from algae not participating in symbiotic cycle

Kyoto Treaty

What is it?A set binding emissions targets for developed nations.Includes the following provisions:• Emission targets, international emission

trading, joint implementation among developed countries, compliance and enforcement, and entry into force.

America’s Reaction to Kyoto Treaty

Poll of 1,008 (1998): 6 in 10 Americans believe Kyoto Treaty would be expensive and not implemented.Poll of 800 Adults (November ‘98): 63% willing to accept increases up to $25/mo in household energy costs to comply with the Treaty. However, US government says without emissions-trading system, it would be hard to keep costs below $25. Majority of the respondents opposed paying $50/mo in additional costs.

America’s Reaction to Kyoto Treaty

April 2001: 61% of Americans for Treaty. 26% were against; 13% had no opinion.Education Implications:

High School Education• 47% for Treaty• 33% against Treaty

Some College• 67% for Treaty• 24% against Treaty

America’s Reaction to Kyoto Treaty

Income Implications:>$25K Salary• 55% for Treaty• 27% against Treaty

<$100K Salary• 71% for Treaty• 20% against Treaty

International OpinionGermany: Chancellor, Gerhard Schroeder asked the President to “take responsibility for America’s record of producing 25% of the gases that some scientists say are producing global warming.Sweden: Environment minister says, “The US seems to be preparing to withdraw from the global communities effort to deal with a major threat to the future of the world.”Great Britain: Environment minister says, “There is no serious possibility of negotiating an acceptable alternative.”

International Opinion

Japan: It (Japan) will continue to persuade the U.S. to ratify the treaty.Australia: The Treaty won’t be effective without the United States’ backing.

No Kyoto TreatyGovernment study by Department of Energy’s Information Administration showed potentially disastrous economic losses for US economy ($300 billion per year).

Manufacturing, technology firms, transportation, builders & small businesses would feel impact of high energy costs. As a result, jobs would be lost & Americans pay more for goods & services.

No Kyoto Treaty

Developing countries ExcludedThird World countries would be excluded from limits contained in Treaty. Thus, businesses and jobs would be taken from America and passed to less environmentally sensitive Third World countries such as China, India and Brazil.Ari Fleischer, White House spokesman, stated, “The emissions of rapidly developing countries like India and China will soon be set to match our own.”

No Kyoto Treaty

Developing countries ExcludedThe Senate approved resolution 95-0 urging then President-Clinton not to sign Treaty that impacts developing and developed countries differently.

No Kyoto Treaty

Jim Barrett, President & CEO of Michigan Chamber of Commerce says, “Go with the facts and say ‘NO’ on Kyoto”

No assurance whatsoever that implementing Kyoto Protocol would help environment. At same time, there is virtual certainty it would harm the economy.

No Kyoto TreatyWarming and cooling have been going on since Earth was formed, most likely due to variations of activities of sun.The Earth’s climate is dynamic and been undergoing change since Earth was formed. Fluctuations in temperature and precipitation patterns are natural consequences of variability. Evidence is mounting that current changes in climate system might be expected due to natural causes alone.

No Kyoto Treaty

Environmentalists Not on Right Track:Matt Craighead, columnist, said, “Bush’s response to radical environmentalism is anti-nature and pro-man and thus deserves our highest praise.”They don’t fight for clean air and water for humans. Instead they attack dams because they block fish. In other words, fish and rivers are more important than people.Nature is valued above man.

No Kyoto Treaty

Environmentalists Not on Right Track:Beavers and humans both build dams. Beavers cut down trees to build dams. Yet, beavers aren’t attacked because it is natural for them to do this.75% of Alaskans support drilling for oil in the ANWR (Arctic National Wildlife Refuge) and the AFL-CIO supports it because it creates 250 union jobs.

For Kyoto Treaty

Garden State EnviroNet:Sally Dudley, columnist, states, “The biggest single step we can take to curb global warming is to raise miles per gallon standards for cars and trucks.Pollution from erosion and run-off has damaged our streams and lakes. 85% are not fit for swimming or fishing.

For Kyoto Treaty

Garden State EnviroNet:Cutting down the woods (deforestation) has taken away the homes for animals and construction has increased on farm land and in open fields. (Nearly half the land in New Jersey that was farmed in 1950 is covered with concrete.)

For Kyoto Treaty

ERA/FoEN (Environmental Rights Action/Friends of the Earth Nigeria):

ExxonMobil bought and paid for President Bush’s climate change and energy policies. Thus, why he backed out of Kyoto Treaty.• It is a clear payback for the $25 million oil

industry.

Kyoto Protocol would reduce carbon dioxide emission levels.

For Kyoto Treaty

Boycott America:President Bush is a “Texas oil man”. That backs his decision to withdraw from Treaty.Scientists say that we need a 60-80% reduction in carbon emissions. President Bush will not agree to a mere 5.2% cut!This would represent an irresponsible act by the U.S. if not ratified.

For Kyoto Treaty

World Wildlife Fund (WWF):Outraged with President Bush’s decision!President is quite surprised with the overwhelming reactions.Policy was political decision – not well thought out. There was no extensive analysis behind this important decision.

Conclusions

Based on the economic implications for the U.S. and the world, we do not believe the Kyoto Treaty should be ratified. Therefore, we support President Bush’s decision to withdraw from the Treaty.