the largest airspace shutdown since wwii: volcanic ash prediction and its challenges
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The largest airspace shutdown since WWII: Volcanic ash prediction and its challenges. Eyjafjallajokull eruption, 2010. Helen Dacre 1 , Alan Grant 1 , Natalie Harvey 1 , Helen Webster 2 , Ben Johnson 2 , David Thomson 2 , Franco Marenco 2 1 University of Reading 2 UK Met Office . - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 1
Helen Dacre1, Alan Grant1, Natalie Harvey1, Helen Webster2, Ben Johnson2, David Thomson2, Franco Marenco2
1University of Reading 2UK Met Office
The largest airspace shutdown since WWII: Volcanic ash prediction and its challenges
Eyjafjallajokull eruption, 2010
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 2
Impact on aircraft
• Volcanic ash is hard and abrasive
• Volcanic ash can cause engine failure
• > 126 incidents of encounters with ash clouds since 1935
• Ash-encounter (AE) severity index ranging from 0 (no notable damage) to 5 (engine failure leading to crash)
• Difficult to predict what a safe level of ash concentration is for aircraft to fly through
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 3
Impact on the ground
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 4
Talk Outline
• Volcanic ash impacts• Volcanic ash advisory centres (VAAC’s)• Volcanic ash transport and dispersion models• Safe volcanic ash concentrations• Model evaluation• Summary• Current and future work
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 5
Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAAC)
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 6
Volcanic Ash Graphics
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 7
Volcanic Ash Transport and Dispersion Models (VATD)
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 8
Volcanic Ash Prediction Challenges• Plume height and vertical profile may be unknown at onset
of eruption and/or time varying
• MER is not obtainable by direct observation
• Mass fraction of fine ash (< 100μm) is not obtainable by direct observation
• The possibility of aggregation of particles exists, but little detailed information is known
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 9
Defining Safe Ash Concentrations
• April 2010- Closure of European airspace caused huge economic difficulties
- Aircraft manufacturers pressed to define limits on how much ash a jet engine can ingest without damage
- CAA set the safe upper limit of ash density to be 2mg/m3
• May 2010:- CAA revised the safe limit upwards to 4mg/m3 – no fly zone
- CAA created a Time Limited Zone between 2 and 4mg/m3
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 10
Predicting Safe Ash Concentrations
Model simulation 14th April – 20th April 2010
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 11
00UTC 16th April
Model column Integrated mass
Leipzig
lidar
model
Comparison with ground-based lidar
DFAF = 4%
(Dacre et al. 2011, JGR)
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 12
Comparison with Airborne Lidar
Vertical cross-section of ash concentration,
Lidar (black), NAME (grey)
Column Integrated Mass Loading
lidar
model
DFAF = 1.2%
(Grant et al. 2012, ACP)
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 13
Comparison with In-situ Particle Probes Location of FAAM aircraft profiles
Profile of ash concentrationMeasured (black), model (red)
DFAF = 2.6%
(Dacre et al. 2013, ACP)
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 14
Summary so far …
Q. Can VATD models predict the structure of volcanic ash clouds?
- Horizontally to within ~100km- Vertically peak to within ~ 1km but ash layers too thick- Elevated source gives the best simulated ash clouds if
information on the plume height is available
Q. Can VATD models predict the concentration of volcanic ash clouds?
- Reasonably when combined with an appropriate distal fine ash fraction of ~ 2-6%
- Peak concentrations underestimated by a factor ~2
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 15
Why are volcanic ash layers so thin?
Location of EARLINET lidars Observed Ash Layer Depth
ObservationsNAME
NAME: varying turbulence scheme
NAME: narrow/wide emission profile
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 16
Quantifying Uncertainty in Volcanic Ash Forecasts
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 17
Outlook and Future Work
• Icelandic volcanic activity is very likely to occur in the next 10-20 years so we need to develop a system that minimises disruption
• Existing VATD can be used to provide reasonable guidance for aviation but there are still large uncertainties
• We need to effectively communicate the uncertainty in ash forecasts so they can be used in risk based decisions
• Assimilation of satellite observations• Ensemble forecasting
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 18
EXTRA SLIDES
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Helen Dacre Department of Meteorology University of Reading 19
Qualitative Evaluation12 UTC 16th April
MODIS visible 10 UTC 16th April
IASI Volcanic Ash12:24UTC 16th April