the looming energy crisis and...
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The Looming Energy Crisis and Agriculture:Who will feed India when the sun sets on oil?
Steve HallettDepartment of Botany & Plant Pathology
Yield is a function of:
•Choice of crop species•Crop/variety genetics•Water availability•Nutrient availability
…and at a regional level:
•Land availability• Infrastructure (e.g. roads)
Manure, greenmanure, rotations
Sunlight Rainfall
Irrigation Diesel (crude oil)(aquifer)
Inorganic P Inorganic N(mined) (natural gas)
The Thermodynamics of Agriculture
In the USA:Ten calories of hydrocarbons are burned for each calorie of food consumed.
The Malthusian Dilemma and the Population Bomb
Yields
1800 1900 2000
Thomas Malthus, Essay on the Principle of Population
IndustrialRevolution
PetroleumRevolution
Paul Ehrlich, The Population Bomb
100+
Today
Number of people fed per farmer
100+
Today
Oil Consumption
Number of people fed per farmer
100+
Today
Oil Consumption
Diesel
Fertilizers
Pesticides
Fertilizer Consumption
Fuel Consumption
Pesticide Use
Number of people fed per farmer
The Conventional Wisdom:
With a global population expected to reach 9 billion in another few decades we need more efficient agriculture to raise yields. This means more fertilizer, better varieties, genetic engineering…
But perhaps agricultural efficiency has been part of a bigger problem…
What does efficient, high-input agriculture actuallyproduce?
• Cheaper calories• Thriving agricultural industries• (not necessarily thriving farmers)• Demand for inputs• Land degradation• Water depletion
• Dependence on inputs
• A vicious cycle?
• More people
Message #1
The Green Revolution was only secondarily a miracle of scienceThe Green Revolution was primarily an extension of the Petroleum Revolution
Message #2
The Indian “Economic Miracle” was only secondarily a miracle of free marketsThe Indian “Economic Miracle” primarily an extension of the Petroleum Revolution
Message #3
The Petroleum Interval has reached its peakPrepare for the crash
Message #4
More growth, more yield, more efficiency, more productivity is not the answerProtect soil and water at all costsStrengthen communities and social systems
Message #1
The Green Revolution was only secondarily a miracle of scienceThe Green Revolution was primarily an extension of the Petroleum Revolution
Message #2
The Indian “Economic Miracle” was only secondarily a miracle of free marketsThe Indian “Economic Miracle” was primarily an extension of the Petroleum Revolution
Message #3
The Petroleum Interval has reached its peakPrepare for the crash
Message #4
More growth, more yield, more efficiency, more productivity is not the answerProtect soil and water at all costsStrengthen communities and social systems
coal
oil
natural gas
hydro nuclear renewables
coal
hydro
oil & natural gas
nuclear other
Energy Consumption: India
Total primary Energy
Electricity Generation
India: Energy Trends: Total Energy
25
20
15
10
5
0
Qu
adri
llio
n B
tus
1980 1990 2000 2010
Consumption
Production
India: Energy Trends: Oil
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
01980 1990 2000 2010
Tho
usa
nd
bar
rels
pe
r d
ay
Consumption
Production
India: Energy Trends: Natural Gas
Bill
ion
cu
bic
fe
et
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
01980 1990 2000 2010
Consumption
Production
India: Energy Trends: Coal
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Mill
ion
Sh
ort
to
ns
1980 1990 2000 2010
Consumption
Production
Coal Reserves in IndiaHow many times have you been told: “There is enough coal to last a hundred years…”?
• Reserves estimates are uncertain*. Peak may be reached soon.
• Coal quality is moderate (high ash) and declining
• Significant infrastructure issues (rail transportation from East to West; ports)
• Significant imports in the last two decades, and increasing
• Competition for imports increasing• Reserves of suppliers also in question• Costs expected to rise
* 1987: Estimate of 12.6 billion tons increased to 90 billion tons. 2007: decreased to 56 billion tons.
AD 2000AD 1 AD 4000
Bill
ion
s o
f b
arre
ls o
f o
il p
rod
uce
d p
er
year
40
30
20
10
0
The Petroleum Interval:A Two-Hundred Year Glitch in the History of Civilization
AD 2000AD 1 AD 4000
Bill
ion
s o
f b
arre
ls o
f o
il p
rod
uce
d p
er
year
The Petroleum Interval:A Two-Hundred Year Glitch in the History of Civilization
40
30
20
10
0
Crude oil discovered and produced each year worldwide since 1930. Data fromthe Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (www.peakoil.net).
0
20
40
60
Cru
de O
il P
ro
du
ced
(b
illi
on
bb
l)
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
a
b
Discovered
Produced
The Petroleum Interval:A Two-Hundred Year Glitch in the History of Civilization
Crude oil discovered and produced each year worldwide since 1930. Data fromthe Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (www.peakoil.net).
0
20
40
60
Cru
de O
il P
ro
du
ced
(b
illio
n b
bl)
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
a
b
Discovered
Produced
1900 21002000
The Petroleum Interval:A Two-Hundred Year Glitch in the History of Civilization
Crude oil discovered and produced each year worldwide since 1930. Data fromthe Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas (www.peakoil.net).
0
20
40
60
Cru
de O
il P
ro
du
ced
(b
illio
n b
bl)
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
a
b
Discovered
Produced
1900 21002000
The Petroleum Interval:A Two-Hundred Year Glitch in the History of Civilization
AD 2000AD 1 AD 4000
Bill
ion
s o
f b
arre
ls o
f o
il p
rod
uce
d p
er
year
Economic gains
Efficacy of governments
Personal wealth
Agricultural yields
Global population
Global mean surface temp.
Biodiversity loss
Freshwater depletion
Loss of arable land
etc., etc.
The Petroleum Interval:A Two-Hundred Year Glitch in the History of Civilization
40
30
20
10
0
Message #1
The Green Revolution was only secondarily a miracle of scienceThe Green Revolution was primarily an extension of the Petroleum Revolution
Message #2
The Indian “Economic Miracle” was only secondarily a miracle of free marketsThe Indian “Economic Miracle” was primarily an extension of the Petroleum Revolution
Message #3
The Petroleum Interval has reached its peakPrepare for the crash
Message #4
More growth, more yield, more efficiency, more productivity is not the answerProtect soil and water at all costsStrengthen communities and social systems
“I believe that one ought have only as much marketefficiency as one needs, because everything we value inhuman life is within the realm of inefficiency –love, family, attachment, community, culture, oldhabits, comfortable old shoes.”
Edward Luttwak
The Efficiency Trap:
300
320
340
360
380
400
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
CO
2C
once
ntra
tion
(pp
m)
-4,000 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 Present 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Wo
rld
Oil
Pro
du
cti
on
(bil
lio
n b
arrels
per d
ay
)
…a freshwater crisis…a population crisis…a food crisis
…a looming energy crisis…
…a growing environmental crisis…
... “We need to be more efficient!”
“It is very commonly urged that the failing supply of coal will be met by new modes of using it efficiently [and that] the coal thus saved would be, for the most part, laid up for the use of posterity. It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is the truth…”
William Stanley Jevons. 1856. The Coal Question.
The Efficiency Trap:
1769 30.0 Atmospheric engine (Newcomen, 1700)1772 17.6 Low pressure engine (Watt, 1768)1825 10.0 High pressure engine (Evans, 1804),
Double cylinder engine (Woolf, 1804)1850 5.91875 2.5 Compound engine (Elder, 1850-1891)1900 1.0
lb coal consumed/horse power/h
generated
30X Efficiency Increase
Coal: Percent Total Energy in Britain 1700-2000
1700 1800 1900 2000
100
75
50
25
0
Key efficiency improvements
Energy Consumption following Efficiency Improvement:
Four Possible Outcomes
Household refrigerators 1950-2010:
Efficiency : 170% increaseVolume: 175% increase
Electricity consumption per unit increasedThe number of units used increased a lot
We don’t use less fuel as cars become more efficient….
…or as road systems link us more efficiently….
We need to rein-in our desire to make systems more efficientWe need to find ways to make our systems more resilient
The Efficiency Trap:
Why Smokey the Bear Causes Wildfires…
Smokey attempts to make a dynamic system static, and supports productivity over resilience …
The Looming Energy Crisis and Agriculture:Who will feed India when the sun sets on oil?The Looming Energy Crisis and Agriculture:
Who will feed Indiawhen the
sun sets on oil?
India will feed India.
..but not by increasing the industrialization of its agriculture.
Strength comes from the diversity of people and the diversity of natural resources. Both must be protected.
“I believe that one ought have only as much market efficiency as one needs, because everything we value in human life is within the realm of inefficiency –love, family, attachment, community, culture, old habits, comfortable old shoes.”
Edward Luttwak
“I believe that one ought have only as much market efficiency as one needs, because everything we value in human life is within the realm of inefficiency –love, family, attachment, community, culture, old habits, comfortable old shoes.”
Edward Luttwak
Message #1
The Green Revolution was only secondarily a miracle of scienceThe Green Revolution was primarily an extension of the Petroleum Revolution
Message #2
The Indian “Economic Miracle” was only secondarily a miracle of free marketsThe Indian “Economic Miracle” was primarily an extension of the Petroleum Revolution
Message #3
The Petroleum Interval has reached its peakPrepare for the crash
Message #4
More growth, more yield, more efficiency, more productivity is not the answerProtect soil and water at all costsStrengthen communities and social systems
Prepare for the Crash
Protect soil and water at all costs
Strengthen communities and social systems
Questions…?