the maldives: sea-levels, tsunamis and coastal change sue dawson & niklas mörner
TRANSCRIPT
The Maldives:
Sea-levels,Tsunamis and Coastal change
Sue Dawson&
Niklas Mörner
Islands are no more than 1.5 m above sea level
The MaldivesThe Maldives
Satellite photo of theAtolls making up the Maldives
Welcome to the Maldives
Some1200islands
Groupedin some 20largeratolls
“Queen’s Bath” (Hithadoo Island, Addoo Atoll)
(4) Shore terrace 400–800 BP: +60 cm
(5) High-tide level 1790–1970: +20-30 cm
(6) High-tide level today
(1) Mean-tide level today
A sea level fall ~1970-1975
-lowering of the erosion level-building out of lower shoreplane-owergrowing of old surface-weathering of old surface
The lowering was in the order of 20-30 cm
(probably an effect of increased evaporation, decreased precipita-tion and/or changed monsoonal regime)
The Maldives, 2002
Example of records of short high sea levels.
This coral, today 5-10 cm above mean zero,
and “in situ” requites a water depth of ~60
cm (according to Laborel), implying a
higher sea level of about +70 cm.
The coral is cut and dated at 2 levels.
(2) = 1585 +35 BP
(1) = 1635 +35 BP
Goidhoo Atoll
Fen cores
Sea level oscillations in the last millennium (cores from two fens)The 2 swamps became lakes in ~1790 and both dried up in ~1970
NB. Peat and shell dates differ by 350 years, a good measure of the local “sea correction”
The new sea level curve of the Maldives (Mörner, 2007) recording a number of oscillations driven by the redistribution of ocean water masses. The base line seems to peak at around 1300 BP (excluding any Mid-Holocene maximum as predicted by the loading models).
The combined observational records (in mm/year) for the last 300 years.It shows variations – ups and downs – but no trend.
For year 2100, INQUA gives predictions in line with this record,whilst the IPCC scenarios lie far above – way off – observational data
The ”flooding scenario” of IPCC does not concur with observational sea level facts. Therefore, it must be called-off as a mistake.
Today, we favour a 2100 value of +5 cm +15 cm
The MaldivesThe Maldives
EarthquakeEarthquakeEpicentreEpicentre2500 km2500 km3 hrs travel 3 hrs travel timetime
Satellite image 2 hrs after the earthquake
Tide data for Male and Gan
• Population: 290,000• Total number of islands
1,192• Number of inhabited
islands:199
Flooding Status• Only 9 islands had no
flooding• 69 islands completely
flooded
The MaldivesThe Maldives
Sand deposits across the airport
Gan, Laamu Atoll: Maldivestsunami sediment thickness 30cm
Finer sediment than the beach
Particle Size Analysis
Well sorted beach sands differFrom the overlying tsunami deposits
Isdhoo, Laamu Atoll, 2cm tsunami sediment And PSA profiles
Sediment plumesSediment plumes
Sediment plumes across the islands: protectionof the land from the reefs located up to 1km
offshore
Clear sediment plumes into the lagoon
Sediment plumes through to the lagoon inside the atoll (distance c. 500m.)
Coral debris plumes in the lee of trees and vegetation
Erosion scarp on the leeward side of the islands
Tsunami depositsOverlie the beach sands
Male
Highly built up- MaleWas severely flooded
Sea level oscillations in the last millennium (cores from two fens)The 2 swamps became lakes in ~1790 and both dried up in ~1970
NB. Peat and shell dates differ by 350 years, a good measure of the local “sea correction”
Ostracod and Foraminifera
Elphidium sp.
Quinqueloculina
Quadracythere sp.
Spiroloculina
Laamu Atoll
Potential for chronologyof extreme events
Table 1. Submarine shedding of sand into caves with radiocarbon dating of shells and coral after subtraction of 350 years for regional “sea correction”.
Tsunami in AD 1733: (1) in fen records (left), (2) in submarine caves (right) and (3) in a historical record of ”a disastrous flooding in 1733.
The Lisbon earthquake–Tsunami is classical
and similar events are bound to re-occur in the near-future
When a coastal segment experiences erosion, a ”sea level rise” is often advocated.The reality is much more complicated:
in fact, a sea level lowering generally causes more erosion!The clue is often what actually is to be found on the lee-side