The Malthusian Moment?The Malthusian Moment?And if there is one…solutions?And if there is one…solutions?

should we eat our parents?should we eat our parents? or our children?or our children? or our pets?or our pets?

The ‘conventional wisdom’ and The ‘conventional wisdom’ and ‘popular political’ agenda…‘popular political’ agenda…

The former, we decided earlier, was often oppressive / The former, we decided earlier, was often oppressive / anti-progressive in the time of Galileo. It opposed to the anti-progressive in the time of Galileo. It opposed to the heliocentric model and Darwinheliocentric model and Darwin’’s notion of evolutions notion of evolution

SOME now tells that we are running out of resources; SOME now tells that we are running out of resources; that global warming will bring down civilization; others that global warming will bring down civilization; others assure us that neither will not happen. Each side claims assure us that neither will not happen. Each side claims that its perspective is based on ‘scientific fact’!that its perspective is based on ‘scientific fact’!

But can we trust conventional wisdom? Cultural truth? But can we trust conventional wisdom? Cultural truth? Can we make unbiased observations? And can we Can we make unbiased observations? And can we

behave rationally even when we gain some insightbehave rationally even when we gain some insight??

All the evidence suggests that All the evidence suggests that when we consumewhen we consume……

the world is a better place to live, the world is a better place to live, We [We [somesome] become more humane, more ] become more humane, more

philanthropic, more altruisticphilanthropic, more altruistic We [ok, some] become more We [ok, some] become more

environmentally conscious, environmentally conscious, and, yet, experience indicates also that we and, yet, experience indicates also that we

are still capable of irrational and self-are still capable of irrational and self-serving and self-destructive behavior.serving and self-destructive behavior.

Gross Domestic ProductGross Domestic Product

High-income countries have the High-income countries have the highest energy use per capita.highest energy use per capita.

9.6

9.5

87.9

7.1

6.9

6.1

5.8

5.8

5.7

5.75.5

4.8

4.6

4.5

United Arab Emirates

Kuwait

Canada

United StatesTrinidad & Tobago

Finland

Singapore

Norway

Saudi Arabia

Australia

SwedenBelgium

Netherlands

New Zealand

France

Energy use per capita, in thousands of kilograms of oil equivalent, 2002

Source: World Bank, 2005 World Development Indicators: table 3.7.

Rates of birth, death, and natural increase per 1,000 population

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1950-1955

1955-1960

1960-1965

1965-1970

1970-1975

1975-1980

1980-1985

1985-1990

1990-1995

1995-2000

2000-2005

Birth rate Death rate

Natural Increase

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Birth and Death Rates, WorldwideBirth and Death Rates, Worldwide

Birth Birth rates and death rates are declining around the world. rates and death rates are declining around the world. Overall economic development, public health programs, and Overall economic development, public health programs, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and improvements in food production and distribution, water, and sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. sanitation have led to dramatic declines in death rates. Moreover, women now have fewer children than they did in Moreover, women now have fewer children than they did in the 1950s. the 1950s.

What happens when the lines What happens when the lines ‘‘birth ratebirth rate’’ and and ‘‘death ratedeath rate’’ cross?cross?

That is, who will pay for retirement (with a ‘pay as you go That is, who will pay for retirement (with a ‘pay as you go system’)? And this is already happening in many European system’)? And this is already happening in many European countries. countries.

All the evidence suggests that prosperity brings about a change All the evidence suggests that prosperity brings about a change in fertility rates. There is then no Malthusian moment looming.in fertility rates. There is then no Malthusian moment looming.

Notes on Birth and Death Rates, WorldwideNotes on Birth and Death Rates, Worldwide

Reaching Replacement FertilityReaching Replacement Fertility

Average number of children per woman

5.6

7.0

5.4

6.4

5.7

7.3

1.9 2.0 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0

Azerbaijan Chile Iran Mauritius Thailand Tunisia

1960-1965 2000-2005

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Trends in Fertility ReductionTrends in Fertility Reduction

Average number of children per woman

5.75.25.4

6.46.4

8.5

5.3

3.3

6.2

3.1

2.4 2.1

4.3

2.5

Egypt India Indonesia Iran Pakistan Turkey Yemen

1970-1975 2000-2005

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, 2005.

Billions

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision (medium scenario), 2005.

Growth in More, Less Developed CountriesGrowth in More, Less Developed Countries

The lessons…The lessons…

Consider what is driving this Consider what is driving this movement? movement?

migration in general; and in 2012.and in 2012.

The vehicle for this transformationThe vehicle for this transformation

Science = sustained self conscious reflection in a public Science = sustained self conscious reflection in a public context about nature and society, and how sci and context about nature and society, and how sci and culture can work together in a complementary way.culture can work together in a complementary way.

Science applied [technology, engineering] during and Science applied [technology, engineering] during and since the industrial revolution...since the industrial revolution...

great great benefitsbenefits: rising quality of life and responsive and : rising quality of life and responsive and constitutional political order, pharmaceuticals, sanitation constitutional political order, pharmaceuticals, sanitation but also produced great but also produced great liabilitiesliabilities; pollution, Nazi and ; pollution, Nazi and Leninist ideologies, etc.Leninist ideologies, etc.

How are the benefits to be paid for? Growth? How are the benefits to be paid for? Growth? Consumption?Consumption?

Liabilities of Industrial Revolutions and Capitalism Liabilities of Industrial Revolutions and Capitalism tempered by:tempered by:

Judeo-Christian ethics (humans Judeo-Christian ethics (humans ““made in the image of Godmade in the image of God””) ) Enlightenment values (Enlightenment values (““all men are created equal…all men are created equal…””); popular ); popular

sovereignty.sovereignty. Note that most contemporary governments, no matter how ‘free’ or Note that most contemporary governments, no matter how ‘free’ or

‘authoritarian’ claim to be ‘democratic’, ‘popular’ and ‘republics’ [e.g., ‘authoritarian’ claim to be ‘democratic’, ‘popular’ and ‘republics’ [e.g., the’ the’ Democratic Peoples Republic of North KoreaDemocratic Peoples Republic of North Korea ’ or the’ or the’ German ’ German Democratic RepubliDemocratic Republic’c’

Evidence: end of slavery in the 19Evidence: end of slavery in the 19thth Cent, dramatic rise in standards Cent, dramatic rise in standards of living, public health and sanitation, all in a system based on of living, public health and sanitation, all in a system based on constitutional / consensual government.constitutional / consensual government.

Solutions? Solutions? To the problem of consumptionTo the problem of consumption

Authoritarian government should distribute resources as Authoritarian government should distribute resources as best benefits the collective, assume an enlightened best benefits the collective, assume an enlightened government, orgovernment, or

application of scientific principles / methods; that is application of scientific principles / methods; that is reflectionreflection on the problem and assessment of the options; on the problem and assessment of the options; followed by followed by education and persuasioneducation and persuasion to generate to generate consensusconsensus). The ‘enlightened’ scientific elite?). The ‘enlightened’ scientific elite?

Note the case of Greece: democratic government, but Note the case of Greece: democratic government, but one in which the politicians insured re-election for one in which the politicians insured re-election for themselves and their families by raising the social safety themselves and their families by raising the social safety network to an unsustainable level, and doing quite well network to an unsustainable level, and doing quite well for themselves besides.for themselves besides.