the math that matters
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The Math that Matters in the Realtime Web SXSW 2012 | #MathMatters
Gilad Lotan | @gilgul
Illustra(on: Ma. Taylor
Flickr: mangpages
Attention is the Bottleneck
Information Flows through People
Alex Dragulescu
Flickr: sharynmorrow
$ = f(Channel, Demographics, Time, …)
$ = f(Topic, Network, Timing, Influence, Trust, “engagement” …)
Daily Routines
Data Reflects Us
Language / Time Zone 49ers: 36, Saints: 32
Game starts
Game ends!
49ers
Typical Sports Event
GOP debates
#gayrights, #lgbt, #jesus, #flipflop, #jobs, #economy
#pales(ne, #OWS, #immigra(on, #abor(on
#republican, #dems, #economics, #amnesty
• Know your data • Identify deviations from the norm (important
events) • Identify types of events (shape of the curve) • Understand context (language)
• Co-occurrence (relationship between terms)
Invisible Audiences
Flickr: leN-‐hand
Seeing Millions of Conversations
Al-Jazeera Fox News
Difference between Audiences
What Audiences are Clicking on?
Shape of an Audience
Pi.sburgh
Oklahoma City
Noblesville, IN
Engelwood, Dayton, OH
Birmingham, AL
1.4m 4.6m 3.9m 1.7m 620k 879k
• 28.7% of those who follow The Economist also follow the New York Times. This is the highest intersec(on in terms of percentage.
• 19% of those who follow Al-‐Jazeera English also follow the New York Times.
• Of the people who follow either CNN or New York Times, 9.5% follow both.
• 663 users follow all six news accounts.
Clicks per Tweet
Clicks per Tweet (norm) RT per Tweet (norm)
• Know your audience – What they talk about (audience TTs) – Who else they follow – Their shape (clusters)
• More followers != More engagement
• Driving traffic vs. Building a Network (reach)
Information Flows
Influencer: An individual who disproportionately affects the spread of information
“Influence” as an Exposed Metric is Problematic
• Simple quantifiable measure • People aren’t always rational – may trust
someone despite past transgressions • Dynamic – changes constantly • Exogenous – may come from outside the
observed network • Based on Context
Gaining Your Network’s Trust
Urban Outfitters vs. NYC Crafters
Going Viral is Usually Unexpected
“I’m not a Twi.er celebrity by any means. I barely had over 1000 followers when the day began... What I do have is a tribe. A #ght knit group of independent ar#sts and cra4ers that follow me. My cause resounded with them. They spread it, and their friends spread it, and a few big influencers on Twi.er spread it, and then it was gone”
Network Type + Resonance > Network Size
Not necessarily about being first
• Trust • Context Setting • Having the right network in place (“tribe”) • Bridges
Instead of “Influence”, think about:
- Know your audience What type of people follow you, how they’re connected Alignment between content and audience
- No to vanity metrics
more followers doesn’t necessarily mean more engagement
- Bridges vs. Influencers
just because we’re connected doesn’t mean information will flow
- Clicks vs. Retweets what are you optimizing for?
- Building up the Right Network
trust, resonance
- Not about being first
