The Mediterranen Forecasting System: 10 years of developments

(and the next ten)

N.Pinardi

INGV, Bologna, Italy

The Mediterranen Forecasting System: 10 years of developments

(and the next ten)

N.Pinardi

INGV, Bologna, Italy

OUTLINEOUTLINE

• MOON: the EuroGOOS Mediterranean ROOS and the Operational Oceanography components

• The Observing system achievements

• The forecasting system achievements and the quality of the products

• The next ten years of developments

RT Observing Systemsatellite SST, SLA, VOS-XBT, moored

multiparametric buoys,

ARGO and gliders

Numericalmodels of

hydrodynamicsand

biochemistryat basin scale

Numerical models for shelf andcoastal areas

End-User applications-

Downstream services

The components of operationalThe components of operationaloceanography in the Mediterranean Sea:oceanography in the Mediterranean Sea:1995-today1995-today

OBSERVINGSYSTEM

MODELINGSYSTEM

MOORED BUOY ARRAYS SOOP EXPANDABLE AND ONDULATING INSTRUMENTS

SATELLITE SENSING: SEA LEVEL,

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, SEA SURFACE SALINITY,

COLOR, WINDS DRIFTING BUOYS

(SURFACE AND SUBSURFACE) GLIDERS

REPEATED MULTIPARAMETRIC SECTIONS SATELLITE AND AERIAL SURVEYS

COASTAL RADARS AUTONOMOUS

UNDERWATER VEHICLES

CABLED MULTIPARAMETRIC STATIONS

RIVER RUNOFF AND LOADING MONITORING

SEDIMENT/WQ MONITORING

MODEL PHYSICS PRIMITIVE EQUATION (> 1-5 KM)

TURBULENCE CLOSURE SUBMODELS

MODEL PHYSICSNon-Hydrostatic (<1- 5 KM) TURBULENCE AND LIGHT

SUBMODELS

DATA ASSIMILATIONOPTIMAL INTERPOLATION 3-DVAR, KALMAN FILTER

DATA ASSIMILATION KALMAN FILTERS ADJOINT MODELS

BIOCHEMICAL MODELS PELAGIC COMPARTMENT

BENTHIC CLOSURE

BIOCHEMICAL MODELS PELAGIC COMPARTMENT

BENTHIC-PELAGIC COUPLING SEDIMENT DYNAMICS

ATMOSPHERIC FORCINGOPERATIONAL ANALYSES

AND FORECASTS FROM LARGE SCALE MODELS

ATMOSPHERIC FORCINGOPERATIONAL ANALYSES

AND FORECASTS FROM LIMITED AREA MODELS

MOON data collection: MOON data collection: coverage for the 2004-2008 periodcoverage for the 2004-2008 period

gliders SOOP ARGO M3A Buoy

MOON data collection system:MOON data collection system:Coastal and shelf stations in real timeCoastal and shelf stations in real time

Every day hourly data to validate the Every day hourly data to validate the analysis and the forecastanalysis and the forecast

2) Biochemical pelagic forecasting system(OGS)

•Horizontal res: 1/16°x1/16° ~ 6.5Km•Vertical res: 72 unevenly spaced levels

•Coupling with MyOcean physics•10 days forecast every three days

MFS (Mediterranean Forecasting system)•Horizontal res: 1/16°x1/16° ~ 6.5Km•Vert res: 72 unevenly spaced levels

•Lateral open boundary condition in the Atlantic: nesting in Mercator global model•Coupled wave-current model for wind drag

coefficient

MyOcean V1 MFS system: MyOcean V1 MFS system: Dec. 15, 2010 upgradeDec. 15, 2010 upgrade

MFS analyses: MFS analyses: 10 years of quality increase 10 years of quality increase

MOM1.1 +SOFA OPA8.2 +SOFA (sys2b)

OPA8.2 +3DVAR (sys3a2) NEMO+3DVAR (sys4a)

rmse

1999

2009

SEA LEVEL in the Mediterranean

Forecast days

Tem

per

atu

re R

MS

E e

rro

r (d

eg C

)

Forecast -persistence

Forecast - analysis

MFS forecast skill against MFS forecast skill against persistence at the surfacepersistence at the surface

The MFS users: Limited area sub-basin, shelf scale models

Institution Model1 CNR-IAMC SCRMFS2 CNR-IAMC WMRMFS3 CSIC Model 14 CSIC Model 25 HCMR POSEIDON6 IASA-UAT ALERMO7 IFREMER PREVIMER-MENOR8 IMS-METU NLEV9 INGV AFS

10 IOLR SELIPS11 NIB-MBS NAPOM12 OC-UCY CYCOFOS13 PUERTOS ESEOMED14 UMT-IOI-POU ROSARIO 9620

Domain overlaps and in-situ distribution

The next ten years problemsThe next ten years problems• Sustainable and innovative monitoring network

at large and shelf/coastal scales• Coupled current-waves and atmosphere-ocean

models• Data assimilation for all observational sensors,

and for coupled ocean-atmosphere and coupled physics and pelagic biochemistry models

• Ensemble predictions and re-casting of forecast in probabilistic terms

• Re-analyses at high resolution for the past 100 years

• Involve users in forecast assessment through donwstream services

The sustainable ocean observatory and The sustainable ocean observatory and laboratory: laboratory: foodfood, , transport, transport, energyenergy and and environmental monitoring environmental monitoring togethertogether

An artist view ofthe Ocean integrated

Laboratory and Observatory

It can be ‘relocatable’ and adaptive!

Assimilation of gliders observations: large Assimilation of gliders observations: large improvements from repeated, across shelf improvements from repeated, across shelf trackstracks

Along path daily averaged

glider observations

Model withoutGlider assimilation

Model withGlider assimilation

Sea Surface Height

Ensemble predictions: now the first Ensemble predictions: now the first prototypesprototypes

Initial condition ensemblespread has

amplified at the 10 fcst dayin mesoscale regions

Initial condition spread

10-th fcst day spread

In conclusions

ERROR: to hear the sea sound you have first to download quicktime and

then download the forecast!