the megatrend after cloud computing

1© its-people®, © Jörg Osarek 2011

The Megatrend after Cloud Computing:How to survive the Organic Computing Age


Jörg Osarek, Partner www.its-people.de

November 2011



Agenda

Introductionits-people and Jörg OsarekWelcome to the Cloud Computing Age: We live in a science fiction world!

Liftoff

Learning Curve What we learned from the pastWhere are we now?Complexity wins and won't stop

The new Potion We need a new Magic Potion to beat complexitySample ProjectsOrganic Computing / Organic Information Technology

3 Ingredients 3 Ingredients for our Potion1) Computing Power , 2) Organic Architecture3) Organic Thinking and Acting = our Survival Strategy

Survival Strategy Business Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking and ActingNew Ancient thoughts on Control, Growth Maximazation and Competition

Broader Picture Organic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm ShiftA New MindSet for the 21st CenturyTime for the next level

3Copyright its-people®

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Bio inspired IT &Bio inspired IT &Organic ComputingOrganic Computing

Game Game Changing Changing

Technologies Technologies

Introduction Jörg Osarek

IT &BusinessStrategy

ITManage-

ment

IT Archi-tecture

Cloud Cloud ComputingComputing

www.skilltower.deFounder & CEO

www.its-people.deCo-Founder & Partner

http://www.skilltower.de/

http://www.its-people.de/



Welcome to the Cloud Computing Age

Fascinated with Science FictionFascinated with Science Fiction (=Technology & Mythology since the 1970s)(=Technology & Mythology since the 1970s)

Which fiction became reality?Which fiction became reality?Space ships leaving solar systemSpace ships leaving solar system yesyesEverybody has a planetwide walkie-talkieEverybody has a planetwide walkie-talkie yesyesSpace tourismSpace tourism yesyesPlanetwide computer networkPlanetwide computer network yesyesTablet computersTablet computers yesyesPortable universal translator (rudimentary)Portable universal translator (rudimentary) yesyesAutostereoscopic HologramsAutostereoscopic Holograms yesyesWarp driveWarp drive not yetnot yetAutonomous robots on distant planetsAutonomous robots on distant planets yesyesSelf conscious machinesSelf conscious machines not yetnot yet......Information Technology = Transformation Key RoleInformation Technology = Transformation Key Role

© Jörg Osarek - own work from the 1970s



Welcome to the Cloud Computing Age

Today we live in a Science Fiction World called:Today we live in a Science Fiction World called:

The Cloud Computing AgeThe Cloud Computing Age

While everybody is busy with thatWhile everybody is busy with thatI wondered:I wondered:

What's the nextWhat's the nextMegatrend after that?Megatrend after that?

With which Business StrategyWith which Business Strategycan you survive this coming age?can you survive this coming age?

© Jörg Osarek - own work from the 1970s



The Universe Learning Curve from the Past

BigBigBangBang QuarksQuarks

and othersand othersAtomsAtoms

MoleculesMoleculesDNADNA

LifeLife

TechnologyTechnology

CultureCulture

SciencesSciences

You areYou areHere today.Here today.

MythologyMythology

ComplexityComplexitybeats simplicity -beats simplicity -and it won't stopand it won't stopgrowing!growing!



The Universe Learning Curve from the Past

ComplexityComplexitybeats simplicity -beats simplicity -and it won't stopand it won't stopgrowing!growing!

What can save usWhat can save usfrom the greedyfrom the greedycomplexity monster?complexity monster?



The new Magic Potion

A new Magic Potion that A new Magic Potion that enables systems to self enables systems to self organize, self heal, self learn, organize, self heal, self learn, self optimize. Let's call it:self optimize. Let's call it:

What can save usWhat can save usfrom the greedyfrom the greedycomplexity monster?complexity monster?

Organic IT or Bio inspired ITOrganic IT or Bio inspired IT



The new Magic Potion: widely used todayOrganic Components used in our everyday lives:Organic Components used in our everyday lives:

■ E-Mail Spam Filters (Artificial Neural Networks)E-Mail Spam Filters (Artificial Neural Networks)

■ Business-Intelligence-Systems (Data Mining)Business-Intelligence-Systems (Data Mining)

■ OCR-Systems (Recognition of writing)OCR-Systems (Recognition of writing)

■ simple artificial characters and agents e.g. in Computer games (Bots)simple artificial characters and agents e.g. in Computer games (Bots)

■ Speech and speaker recognition (Service-Hotlines)Speech and speaker recognition (Service-Hotlines)

■ Systems that predict stock markets and the weatherSystems that predict stock markets and the weather

■ Systems that pilot unmanned drone aircraftsSystems that pilot unmanned drone aircrafts

■ . . .. . .



The new Magic Potion: Example Projects■ AnimatLab: IDE for ALife and AnimatLab: IDE for ALife and

Neural Networks with Physics SimulationNeural Networks with Physics Simulation

■ Blue Brain project since 2005 Blue Brain project since 2005 (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland) : Goal: (École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Switzerland) : Goal: Constructing a complete virtual brain in a supercomputer. Constructing a complete virtual brain in a supercomputer. Success: simulating a rat cortical column.Success: simulating a rat cortical column.

■ (Cat-)Brain Simulator from IBM funded by DARPA with 40 Million US$. (Cat-)Brain Simulator from IBM funded by DARPA with 40 Million US$. http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/ibm-unveils-a-new-brain-simulatorhttp://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/ibm-unveils-a-new-brain-simulator

■ IBM's Autonomic Computing InitiativeIBM's Autonomic Computing Initiative

■ China Brain project: 2008-2011China Brain project: 2008-2011

■ Triops of the Artificial Life Lab:Triops of the Artificial Life Lab:http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wx6DvjndhAhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wx6DvjndhA

http://spectrum.ieee.org/computing/hardware/ibm-unveils-a-new-brain-simulator

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Wx6DvjndhA



The new Magic Potion: Example Projects

Priority Research Program of German Research Foundation(DFG 1183) 2006-2011 (challenges for informatics regarding creation of technical systems from 2015)

■ Controlled Self Organization@complex networked systems■ OC Workshop on ICAC 2011 in Karlsruhe■ overlaps in main areas with IBM's Autonomic Computing■ Bio inspired IT-Systems: Hardware and Software■ Self-x-abilities

(self configuring, self optimizing, self healing, self protecting, self explaining)■ Principles: Robustness, Flexibility, Adaptivity■ uses Agents, Artificial Neural Networks, Genetic Algorithms, etc.■ Observer/Controller Architectures

Zentral Mehrschichtig Hierarchisch Verteilt

http://www.amazon.de/dp/3034801297/

http://www.amazon.de/dp/3034801297/



The new magic potion: Areas of use & rulers of the gameAreas of use■ intelligent systems managing

traffic, energy, water, it systems■ virtual receptionist■ virtual butler■ self conscious robots■ ...

Control and market dominance■ who controls the intelligence

building blocks dominates the market while producing copies at no costs (software)



3 Ingredients for our Potion

Computing Power

Organic IT-Architecture

Survival Strategy:Organic Thinking and Acting



Ingredient 1: Computing Power

© DannyCornelissen www.portpictures.nl - free to use for any purpose

the passengersthe passengersof the Oasis of the Oasis of the Seasof the Seas

as many containersas many containersas theas the

Colombo ExpressColombo Expressas fast asas fast as

comet Halleycomet Halley

Computers after 25 years:131.000 x RAM12.500 x processing speed,6,25 million x as many storage+ many extras

With the same increase in performance as computers a standard passenger car today would be able to transport



+ Extras likeWLAN, GPS,Bluetooth, 2 cameras, microphone,

(Video)Telephonepos.transducerInternet via 3G


1985

2010/2011Standard PC:

8GB RAM4x3=12GHz

1TeraByte HD

Für ca. 1.500,- €

64KByte RAM0,96MHz166KByteFloppy




???Device


1985

2010/2011Standard PC:

8GB RAM4x3=12GHz

1TeraByte HD

Für ca. 1.500,- €

64KByte RAM0,96MHz166KByteFloppy

2035Standard ???Dev:

1 Mio. GB RAM150.000 GHz

6,25 Mio Terabyte Space

+ Extras???


+ Extras likeWLAN, GPS,Bluetooth, 2 cameras, microphone,

(Video)Telephonepos.transducerInternet via 3G




Is it possible to create nested networked organic components on a nano scale with 100 billion (100Mrd.) neurons and

70 trillion (Billionen) real time connections?




Is it possible to create nested networked organic components on a nano scale with 100 billion (100Mrd.) neurons and

70 trillion (Billionen) real time connections?

Neural Do-it-yourself Nanotech-Network.Neural Do-it-yourself Nanotech-Network.Designation: AlexanderDesignation: AlexanderBuilding Time: 9 MonthsBuilding Time: 9 Months

Going Live: 07.07.2011Going Live: 07.07.2011Status of training:Status of training:amazing neural abilities.amazing neural abilities.

Yes, it is possible. Yes, it is possible.

We see 7 billion unitsWe see 7 billion unitsup and runningup and runningtoday on our planet.today on our planet.



Ingredient 2: Organic IT ArchitectureBlueprint for an scalable, elastic Organic Cloud Architecture



Ingredient 2: Organic IT ArchitectureBlueprint for an scalable, elastic Organic Cloud Architecturepossible Development process



Ingredient 2: Organic IT ArchitectureDemo Time:Human Pilot vs. Artificial Neural Network on the classic Lunar Lander Game

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GNzFAbk10A

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4GNzFAbk10A



Ingredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & ActingTwo Questions first:

■ Can we fully control our complex traditional IT systems today?



Ingredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & ActingTwo Questions first:

■ Can we fully control our complex traditional IT systems today?

■ So, do you believe we can fully control those new dynamic, self organizing, self healing, self evolving and self defending organic systems? (At least we do have observer controller architectures, right?)



Ingredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & Acting

Will we be able to controlWill we be able to controlorganic information technology?organic information technology?

LifeLifefindsfindsa way!a way!

DinoEggs: By de:User:He-ba-mue (uploaded by author) [CC-BY-SA-2.5 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.5)], via Wikimedia CommonsAllosaurus: By Jakub Hałun (Own work) , CC-BY-SA-3.0 (www.creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/) , via Wikimedia Commons

My personal opinion:My personal opinion:



Ingredient 3: Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking & Acting

Facing thesedangerswe have2 simpleoptions

Stop every progress inour lives immediatelyand return to the caves.

accept the challengeand prepare with aorganic thinking andacting strategy.



Business Survival Strategy: Organic Thinking and Acting

Less...

(Illusion of)Control

Growth & ProfitMaximization

RecklessCompetition

More...

Guide & Influence

Robustness,Reserves, Flexibility

Long TermCooperation

►

►

►

Exchange principles that don't work any longer



Organic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm Shift

The Q-GRINS key disciplines splice togetherThe Q-GRINS key disciplines splice together

■ Quantum PhysicsQuantum Physics■ Genetics / BiotechGenetics / Biotech■ RoboticsRobotics■ InformaticsInformatics■ Nano TechnologyNano Technology■ Space TechnologySpace Technology

Additional evolutionary changes happen in software, Additional evolutionary changes happen in software, hardware and the other Q-GRINS areashardware and the other Q-GRINS areas

© Mike Kiev - Fotolia.com



Organic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm ShiftIn the 21st century there will be much more In the 21st century there will be much more

massive change than in 20th century:massive change than in 20th century:

Technology changes life itself and its evolution!Technology changes life itself and its evolution!

We cross many natural borders while using yet We cross many natural borders while using yet unknown leverages. This multiplies chances+risks. unknown leverages. This multiplies chances+risks.

To manage those new challenges mankind has to To manage those new challenges mankind has to move to the next mental level:move to the next mental level:



Organic IT is only Part of the Q-GRINS Paradigm Shift

Less...

(Illusion of)Control

Growth & ProfitMaximization

RecklessCompetition

More...

Guide & Influence

Robustness,Reserves, Flexibility

Long TermCooperation

The next mental Level for mankind in 21st century:The next mental Level for mankind in 21st century:

Principles of the 21st century mindset:Principles of the 21st century mindset:■ organic thinking (guide, reserves, cooperation)organic thinking (guide, reserves, cooperation)■ boldness to develop and use new ideasboldness to develop and use new ideas■ sustainability & purposesustainability & purpose■ wisely preserve our important heritage.wisely preserve our important heritage.

Let's subscribe to thisLet's subscribe to thisamazing adventure today!amazing adventure today!



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