the mersey partnership€¦ · businesses will find ways to trade with each other. staying in...

THE MERSEY PARTNERSHIPECONOMIC REVIEW 2012

Economic Report 2012:Layout 1 29/2/12 17:15 Page 2

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Weightmans is very happy tosupport the Economic Review2012. Understanding how global and local economies are performing is crucial forbusiness growth.

The Economic Review 2012 givesinsight into the challenges facedover the last year and a spotlighton key implications going forward.

There is a lack of confidence thatis now deep rooted after four orfive years of economic downturn.Banks are not lending, pensionsare not performing, andconsumers are not buying.Western economies are worriedabout significant shifts in powerand prosperity. Large corporationsbecome more powerful andGovernments are weakened.Nobody seems to have long termsolutions to the Euro zone crisis,to rising unemployment and to theproblems caused by mountains ofdebt.

Businesses today face rising costsin all sorts of areas at a timewhen competition is increasingand we are having to learn newways to operate.

Notwithstanding all the difficultiesbusinesses will find ways to tradewith each other.

Staying in business and sustainingyour business means constantvigilance about the cost base andimproving the balance sheet,creating the best possible profitmargin and trying to engendersome growth.

In the right sectors, and with theright practices, business cangrow. You need to focus on whatyour customers want to buy andthe value that they put on yourproduct or services. You needgood decisions about investment,strong operational management,and a careful eye on the market,your competitors and the future.This is especially important forLiverpool City Region ascompanies seek to compete andgrow in new markets whiledeveloping innovative products orservices.

During the course of thisdownturn our business has grownsignificantly. We have had arigorous approach to debt andhave tried to invest in clientrelationship management,focusing on achieving the bestresults for our clients. We haverecently won a major award,National Law Firm of the Year atthe Legal Business Awards 2012,which is a testament to all of that.Our headquarters are based inLiverpool which is our heritageand our strength and I wish alllocal businesses every success inthese challenging times.

Patrick Gaul

Managing PartnerWeightmans

FOREWORD


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Welcome to The MerseyPartnership’s latest EconomicReview for Liverpool City Region.

The Review is, once again, basedon the latest available data setsfrom a variety of official sources.This data records key economicperformance using a wide rangeof indicators.

This edition of the EconomicReview is published as the UK’sdeficit reduction measurescontinue to bring about significantand far-reaching change in oureconomy. Alongside change on a national scale, internationalattention is also focussed on the world economic outlook.

Therefore, for the first time, the Economic Review includes a section on the international and national context in whichLiverpool City Region’s economicperformance is being measured.

It is more important than ever -in today’s global markets - to consider these implications for Liverpool City Region. Newopportunities with which we cancontinue to grow our economycontinue to emerge.

The four key sectors identified fortheir potential to create new jobsand new opportunities – theVisitor Economy, the Low CarbonEconomy, the KnowledgeEconomy and SuperPort – remainat the heart of our economicdevelopment strategy. Progress isbeing made in each.

In addition, the creation ofEnterprise Zones will assistdelivery of ambitious schemes.

Liverpool has become the first cityto agree new powers through theCity Deals programme. This willhelp the City to close skills gaps,create employment and make thecity attractive for private sectorinvestment.

At last, responsibility for strategiceconomic development will passto the Liverpool City Region LocalEnterprise Partnership (LEP).

I am pleased that the LEP Boardhas decided to establish the LEPthrough the existing corporateentity of TMP. The City Region willhave one of the most innovativeLEPs in the country, whichdemonstrates our collectivecommitment to continue thegrowth charted through each ofthe eight annual EconomicReviews.

The following pages show that westill face huge economicchallenges and that we have lostsome momentum during the pastyear. However, they also show thatwe now know what needs doingand are having some positiveresults.

The modelling in the final sectionillustrates what can be achieved ifwe continue to harness the criticalmass of all our economic assetsand opportunities across theentire City Region, regainmomentum without delay, remainfocussed - and accelerate.

Rod Holmes

ChairThe Mersey Partnership

INTRODUCTION

Images and case studies included in the Economic Review 2012 profile a range of companies and projects representing innovation and investment - evidence of growth and confidence in Liverpool City Region’s economy.


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Creative and Digital Industries

Advanced Manufacturing

Finance and Professional Services

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1 Southport Commerce

2 England’s Classic Resort

3 Port of Liverpool

4 Liverpool City Fringe Enterprise Zone

5 Mersey Waters Enterprise Zone

6 UNESCO World Heritage Site

7 Knowledge Quarter

8 Liverpool City Centre

9 Liverpool Innovation Park / Wavertree Technology Park

10 Wirral International Business Park

11 Unilever Research and Development

12 Knowsley Industrial Park

13 Speke Corridor

14 3MG

15 Mersey Gateway

16 Heath Business and Technical Park

17 Daresbury Science and Innovation Campus

18 Haydock Industrial Park

Growth Sector Clusters


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Major Hospitals

England’s Golf Coast

Liverpool John Lennon Airport

Universities

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CONTENTSForeword

Introduction

1 Implications 7

Creating and Capitalising on New Business Opportunities

Accessinig New Markets

Changing Patterns of Business and Employment

A Need to Boost Entrepreneurship

Focus on Skills for Future Competitiveness

2 International and National Context 13

International Perspective

UK Conditions

UK Sector Conditions

UK Labour Market Conditions

3 Liverpool City Region Economy 21

Local Economic Data

Change in City Region Economy

Comparison with other Economies

GVA within the City Region

Economic Value and Growth by Sector

Population

Employment and Economic Activity

Recent Trends

Unemployment

Business Base

Skills

4 Economic Forecasts for Liverpool City Region 41

Economic Value

Employment

Population

Baseline Growth Sector Forecasts

Impact of Delivering the Growth Sector Action Plans

5 Glossary 49

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All data contained in the Economic Review 2012 is available on request. Contact: [email protected] or 0151 227 2727.


Creating and Capitalising on New Business Opportunities

Accessing New Markets

Changing Patterns of Business and Employment

A Need to Boost Entrepreneurship


IMPLICATIONS: CHALLENGES ANDOPPORTUNITIES FOR GROWTH

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Wirral Waters represents an investment worth more than £4.5bn to Liverpool City Region.


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During recent years, TMPEconomic Reviews have been ableto report that the Liverpool CityRegion has achieved relativelystrong performance, comparedwith earlier years and other UKcity regions. This year’s Reviewshows that the City Region, likeothers, is being significantlyaffected by external conditions -with some loss of momentum –but still great opportunities. The following is a summary ofimplications:

Creating and Capitalisingon New BusinessOpportunities

Weak growth prospects for the UKeconomy over the next two years(see UK Conditions page 14) willmake business growth morechallenging, with feweropportunities and increasedcompetition. Major new projects in the pipeline for Liverpool CityRegion, such as the Seaforth In-river Terminal, Mersey Gatewaycrossing, the Liverpool BioCampus and Liverpool and WirralWaters will enter constructionphases in the next two years.

The economic impact of theseschemes is critical to the mediumterm prospects for the City Regionbut the impact of this investment,and resulting jobs, will be limitedfor the next two years. LiverpoolCity Region’s relatively high level ofpublic sector employment andGovernment’s spending plans forthe next four years, put the onuson the private sector to driveeconomic growth (see UKConditions page 15).

Steps taken during recent yearshave provided a platform forgrowth and the economy hasstarted to re-balance between thepublic and private sector (seeSector Composition page 29).Dedicated teams of local

businesses are leading the deliveryof action plans for job growth infour areas of economic potential.This work is progressing well.Liverpool City Region’s position in the offshore wind industry hasbeen transformed by collectiveaction, leading to new contracts at Cammell Laird. This provides a model for collaborativeopportunities in Port Centric andMultimodal logistics and also forcluster development in theadvanced manufacturing and life-sciences sectors. In the visitoreconomy, further hoteldevelopments in 2012 will open newbusiness tourism opportunities.

The challenge over the next twoyears is to rapidly accelerate therate of private sector job creation.This is required to offset continuedredundancy in the public sector,and to address underlying levels ofunemployment.

A range of venture capitalproducts are available for businessinvestment. The North West Fundprovides an additional £185millionof business finance that is uniqueto Liverpool City Region, and iswell aligned with our growthsectors.

Where public sector investmentstreams still exist – RegionalGrowth Fund, European RegionalDevelopment Funds and incentivesat the City Region’s newEnterprise Zones and recentlyannounced Mayoral DevelopmentZones, they need to be targeted atnew growth opportunities.

Accessing New Markets

Liverpool City Region’s principalmarkets have been domestic,European and in the US; yet thisyear’s Economic Review showsemerging economies, such asBrazil, Russia, India and China, arelikely to achieve the highest growthrates over the next two years.

IMPLICATIONS: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR GROWTH 01


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There is continued overseasdemand for high-quality UK goods and services. In emergingeconomies, incomes are growingand driving demand for consumerproducts.

As these economies expand thereis also demand for businessconsultancy services. Opportunitiesare appearing in the growthsectors, in company supply chains,and in the export of businessinnovation and R&D. All of thesepresent opportunities for LiverpoolCity Region businesses to accessnew markets.

Evidence also suggests thateconomic growth is likely to bedriven by medium sizedbusinesses that have a track-record of delivery and are able toinvest to grow. The City Regionlacks sufficient critical mass inthis area. It has a higher thanaverage number of family ownedbusinesses, which typically do not generate high growth rates.This issue requires a deeperunderstanding and more focusedsupport.

Changing Patterns ofBusiness and Employment

Evidence in this year’s EconomicReview points to a shift in thenature and form of the LiverpoolCity Region’s economy. Althoughthe impact of the financial crisishas been severe in terms ofoverall economic performance,(see International and NationalContext pages 14-19) this hasn’t,until very recently, translated intosignificant unemployment.

This is due to two main factors:Firstly, there has been a largeincrease in part time working inLiverpool City Region. Secondly,there has been a sharp rise inself-employment, mainly as aresult of redundancies and a

preference to start businessesrather than take benefits (seeLiverpool City Region Economy,Recent Trends page 29).

There are a number of significanttrends:

• Businesses are trying to retaintalent and expertise to beprepared for recovery; andsalaries are being protected as far as possible

• New self-employment will lead to a stronger entrepreneurialculture, although it might proveto be a stop-gap for someindividuals until jobs becomeavailable

• Household incomes across theCity Region are falling. This willhave a knock-on impact on overall consumer spending.Inflation is currently high and this is increasing the pressure on low income households

Availability of high quality workopportunities for young people iscrucial to attracting and retainingtalent, and driving futurepopulation growth. This year’sreview shows that employmentgrowth has been strongest inlower skilled and manualoccupations and also in sectorsthat are considered lower value(see Liverpool City Region Economy,Recent Trends pages 29-30). This is positive; it provides a firststep into the labour market foryoung people or those out of work. However, growth is alsoneeded in high value sectors andprofessional and managerialoccupations.

Liverpool City Region isdetermined to create long term,sustainable jobs to reverseunderlying structural issues oflong-term unemployment andhigh value jobs. This remains achallenging target.


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A Need to BoostEntrepreneurship

Evidence highlights again thedeficit that the City Region has in its business base; and therequirement to stimulate newenterprise. This is not a newconclusion and some of thebarriers originally identified in the 2005 MerseysideEntrepreneurship Commissionstill remain.

Firstly, analysis of Liverpool CityRegion population structure (seeLiverpool City Region Economy,Population pages 26-27) still shows a deficit of 24-44 year oldindividuals relative to the nationalaverage. This group plays animportant role in terms ofenterprise; it is often the cohortthat start successful growthbusinesses.

Secondly, some of the CityRegion’s biggest businesses are not headquartered here andhave to compete internally forresources and investment togenerate growth in the CityRegion.

Thirdly, Liverpool City Region stillhas high levels of public sectoremployment. Evidence suggeststhat such places are likely to havelower enterprise rates.

There is a range of building blocksthat the City Region is putting inplace to promote a culture ofentrepreneurship.

• Educational performance isimproving, with a focus onenterprise in schools andacademies across the CityRegion (see Liverpool City Region Economy, Business Base pages 34-35)

• New combinations ofbusinesses, education providers and researchinstitutions are emerging

• Growth sector action plansprovide a framework for supply chain development and the evidence of futuremarket potential

• A range of financial productsare available, although evidence on the successfultake-up of finance is mixed

The Global EntrepreneurshipCongress and new programmes inthe City Region’s universities willprovide an increased focus on theenterprise agenda. This presentsan opportunity to drive significantcultural change.

IMPLICATIONS: CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES FOR GROWTH 01


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Businesses have cited futureskills needs as a critical factor for their business. This year’sEconomic Review shows thatLiverpool City Region hascontinued its recent progress on improving skills, albeit from a low base.

Within growth sectors there is evidence that many of thetraditional manufacturing andengineering skills are transferableto the knowledge-based economy.These skills are found in the olderage group, but young people haveto start from scratch.

Much closer links are starting toappear between the growthsectors and skills providers. The Jobs for Tomorrow project,led by Connexions, has helpedschool careers advisersunderstand future job prospects.University Technical Colleges areemerging in the SuperPort, LowCarbon, Engineering and LifeSciences sectors. The relationshipbetween Balfour Beatty andLiverpool Community Collegeprovides a good practice exampleof links between the private sectorand further education.

Employers are increasinglylooking for qualities such asleadership and teamwork. These are required to make theCity Region attractive for newinvestment and for the growth of existing companies. The CityRegion needs to understand thefuture skills needs of employers,and align skills programmes withthese needs. This is still proving to be difficult. Public funding isreducing for training providers,and the skills funding system willhave to be increasingly driven bythe needs of business rather thanthe demands of learners.

There is also a strong linkbetween skill levels andunemployment (see Liverpool CityRegion Economy, figure 43, WorkingAge Population by QualificationLevel, page 39). It will take time,but delivery of major new projectswill bring jobs to the City Regionover the next ten years. Thechallenge for Liverpool CityRegion is to equip people to be jobready and support them totransition into work.


02International Perspective

UK Conditions


UK Labour Market Conditions

INTERNATIONALAND NATIONALCONTEXT

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Range Rover Evoque produced at Halewood Operations, Knowsley and part of Jaguar LandRover’s £1.5bn investment in UK advanced manufacturing.


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INTERNATIONAL AND NATIONAL CONTEXT 02

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The world economic outlookweakened once more in 2011.Governments switched from tryingto stimulate their economies totrying to protect them, particularlyin the more advanced countries.This acted as a drag on globaleconomic activity. The reboundseen in 2010, as industries beganto rebuild stock, ran out of steamand private sector demandbecame muted.

Growth in advanced economies isexpected to remain subdued overthe coming two to three years.Austerity measures mean peoplewill have less money. By contrast,the emerging markets of Brazil,Russia, India and China, known asthe BRIC countries, are expectedto be the drivers of growth in thefuture. In 2010 BRIC countriescomprised 17% of global GDP;through 2011 and 2012 they areexpected to account for 40% ofworld GDP growth.

UK Conditions

In the first three quarters in 2011the economy grew by 0.5%compared to the 3.0% growthrecorded in the preceding 12 months.

Consumer confidence last yearweakened to levels experiencedduring the recession of 2008/09.Household disposable incomeincreased by a mere 0.1% in 2010and during 2011 came underfurther pressure from taxincreases, welfare cuts andinflation, compounded by limitedearnings growth. Inflation was4.0% or above throughout 2011,peaking at 5.2% in September and has been above the Bank ofEngland’s target rate of 2.0%since 2009. At the same time,take-home pay continued to fall.In 2011; median gross weeklyearnings for all employees – thevalue that separates the higherhalf of the population from thelower remained unchanged from2010 at £403.90, up only 1.7% onthe 2009 figure.

Figure 1Selected GDP Growth

Figure 2Annual Growth in BRICCountries & UK

Source: OECD, Quarterly National Accounts.

Source: International Monetary Fund, World EconomicOutlook Database.

Source: ONS, GDP Quarterly Release.

Figure 3UK GP Growth


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At the national level, the UK facesa significant budget deficitdeepened by unprecedentedmeasures undertaken to stabilisethe banking system and financialsector as well as stimulate theeconomy through the recession. In an attempt to reduce thestructural deficit the governmentintroduced a number of measuresto drive fiscal consolidation,including spending cuts and taxincreases. The Chancellor’sAutumn Statement 2011 includedan update of forecast outcomesfor fiscal consolidation. Thegovernment plans a totalconsolidation of £147 billion peryear by 2016/17, consisting of totalreductions in spending of £116billion and a net increase in taxesof £31 billion.

In response to the level ofindebtedness it faces, the UKgovernment introduced a numberof measures aimed at stimulatingprivate sector growth andstrengthening manufacturing inorder to enable exports andinvestment to drive economicgrowth going forward. Examplesincluded a reduction in corporatetax and commitment to furtherreductions, a £50 million BusinessAngel Co-Investment Fund, exportfinance to help firms break intooverseas markets and theintroduction and extension of theRegional Growth Fund.

Firms cut back on investing intheir businesses during therecession to preserve cash-flow.Despite improvements incorporate sector balance sheetsduring the recovery, investmentlevels have remained below pre-recession levels. The Euro Zonedebt crisis and financial marketuncertainty only underlined thepoor credit conditions and keptinvestment confidence down.

BRIC and emerging economieshave provided competitivealternatives to investment indomestic markets.

The UK trade performance has weakened as a result ofdiminished demand for UKexports despite the supportprovided by sterling’s relativeweakness. The USA and EuroZone represent the UK’s largestexport markets accounting for13% and 54% of exportsrespectively. Both haveexperienced deterioration ineconomic performance. Limitedgrowth prospects in thesemarkets weaken UK prospectsand leave net trade, an importantdriver of future economic growth,vulnerable.

Source: HM Revenue and Customs, RegionalTrade Statistics.


Figure 4UK Private Sector BusinessInvestment Levels

Figure 5UK Exports by Country GroupDestination

Trigon Snacks, the Aintree-based manufacturer of nut and other food products,is seeking new business in overseas markets. The Weightmans client, whichsaw its annual sales in 2011 rise to £25.5m, up from £22m in 2010, alreadyprovides manufacturing and warehousing services for the Dutch food serviceindustry supplier, Welco and is now planning product launches in China.


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In the five quarters the UKeconomy was in recession, up tothe middle of 2009, it lost 7% ofoutput; to date 3.4% of that lostoutput has been recouped.However the current globaleconomic climate forecastssuggest it may take a further twoyears for the economy to return topre-recession levels of output(Source: International MonetaryFund, September 2011).

Manufacturing was one of thehardest hit sectors during therecession but experienced astrong recovery, especiallycompared with previousdownturns. In the 18 months thatfollowed recession, the sectorrecouped nearly half of lostoutput. Stock building and exportdemand bolstered manufacturingperformance as domestic demandfaltered. However the sector hasbeen impacted by the latest globalslowdown, only 0.8% of outputwas recouped in the last threequarters.

Likewise, the construction sectorexpanded during the first half of2010 but has since slowed, due tocuts in the public sector.

The business services and financesector contracted by 7% duringthe recession and recovery hasbeen protracted. However, during2011 the sector recorded growthin each quarter.

Output in the transport, storage, information andcommunications sector during the recession contracted by 8.3%peak-to-trough, however thesector has grown since. Indeed, it was the first to regain pre-recession levels, doing so inquarter three 2011.

The distribution, accommodationand food service activities sectorcontracted by 8.9% during therecession and has grown backslowly by 3.5% to date.

The broad Government and otherservices sector helped lift theeconomy throughout 2009 and thefirst half of 2010. Growth slowedin 2011 and is expected to go intoreverse over the coming few yearsas the government continues tocut back on its spending.

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Figure 6UK Sector Output Performance




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UK Labour MarketConditions

In the two years since the start ofthe recovery the UK labourmarket has not managed toachieve sustained growth; in 2011conditions seemed to deteriorate.During the recession, employmentlevels held up much better thanexpected given the magnitude ofoutput lost, as well as theexperience of past recessions.

Employment fell by 2.4% from29.5 million to 28.8 million,compared with peak-to-troughdeclines of 6.0% in the 1980s and1990s. Employment levels held upmuch better due to increasedflexibility in the labour market. In the face of declining demandboth employees and employersaccepted different ways to reducelabour costs rather than laying offstaff; including policies such asunpaid leave, short-time working,recruitment freezes and wagereductions. In 2010 employmentlevels recovered, restoring450,000 people back intoemployment. However, since thebeginning of 2011 the recovery in the labour market has stalled,in the second half of 2011 over150,000 people left employmentas public sector job lossesoutnumbered private sector jobcreation.

Public sector employmentbolstered the UK labour marketduring the recession as privatesector employment declined. In 2011, both private sector andpublic sector employmentsuffered. The number of peopleworking in the public sector iscurrently at its lowest level sinceSeptember 2003, at 5.99 million,whilst private sector employmentremains at 98% of its pre-recession level.

Self-employed numbers in the UKhave increased significantly sincethe onset of the recession,growing by 7.4%, equivalent to anadditional 282,500 individuals.This trend was predominantlydriven by part time self-employment. Currently there are4.14 million self-employedindividuals in the UK labourmarket, the highest number sincecomparable records began in1992. The shift towards part time,or temporary, rather than fulltime employment creation hasbeen a characteristic of theeconomic recovery. Givenuncertainty over economicconditions and the sustainabilityof the recovery, firms’ willingnessto take on permanent full timestaff has been eroded.

Figure 9UK Employee and Self EmploymentLevels

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Source: ONS, Labour Market Statistics.




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Figure 10UK Full Time and Part TimeEmployees

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Figure 12UK Seasonally Adjusted Claimant Count

Source: ONS, Labour Market Statistics. Source: ONS, Labour Market Statistics.


1 International Labour Organisation definition of unemployment – people without jobs who have been actively looking for work over the past four weeks


Two quarters before the economyformally entered recession inquarter two of 2008, unemploymenthad started to increase. Throughout2008 and 2009 the level continuedto rise, peaking at 2.49 million,which was 885,000 more than thepre-recession level. During 2010unemployment declined marginallyby 55,000. However, in 2011numbers picked up again and at 2.6million unemployment is now at itshighest level since 1994.

Perhaps not surprisingly, thenumber of individuals claiming jobseekers allowance (JSA) morethan doubled during the recessionfrom 778,400 to 1,626,000. Therefollowed a see-saw of the figuresin 2010 and 2011, declining in2010 by 176,000, increasing in2011 to levels experienced at thepeak of the recession. The figurefor November 2011 was 1,598,600.


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Figure 13UK Longer Term Claimants


Labour market data highlight that young people aged from 16 to 24 years weredisproportionately affected by therecession and fragile economy.Whilst the number of individualsof all ages claiming job seekersallowance (JSA) for more than sixmonths increased by 2.5 times,the number of young claimants

more than tripled from 36,000 to120,000.

Despite a significant reduction innumbers during 2010, in 2011 therate of increase in longer-termyouth claimants outstripped therate for claimants of all ages,reaching 125,000, the highest levelsince 1997.

In 2011 Cybertill increased its revenues by 56% from just over £4m to£6.25m and will post a profit of around £250,000. At the same time thecompany also increased its customer base by 23% to 740 clients – evidenceof growth achievable in Liverpool City Region’s economy despite difficulttrading conditions.


03Local Economic Data

Change in City Region Economy




Population


Recent Trends

Unemployment

Business Base

Skills

LIVERPOOL CITY REGIONECONOMY

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Mersey Gateway Project will help create more than 4,000 new jobs generating additional £61.9m GVA by 2030.


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Local Economic Data

In 2009 Liverpool City Regioneconomy was worth £21.9 billion2. The area represented some 2.1%of the total value of the UKeconomy. London and the SouthEast made up 35% of the country’seconomic value. Liverpool CityRegion’s growth is from a lowerbase when compared againstother parts of the UK (For example,in 1999 it was estimated that theCity Region economy was worth£15.5bn; whereas West Midlandswas worth £34.7bn, GreaterManchester £32.4bn and WestYorkshire £27.6bn.).

Within the EU Liverpool CityRegion is comparable to Auvergnein France, Calabria in Italy, Izmirin Turkey and Lithuania. Otherdominant port cities in Europehave far larger economies,Hamburg £60.2 billion andAntwerp £45 billion.

Area GVA 2009(£m)

South Yorkshire 19,876

Liverpool City Region 21,913

Tyne & Wear 23,014

West Yorkshire 39,266

Greater Manchester 45,690

West Midlands 45,802

Source: ONS, Regional GVA and TMP Modelling.


Figure 14Contribution to Liverpool City Region GVA

Table 1Comparative GVA

LIVERPOOL CITY REGION ECONOMY 03

2. Economic value here is defined by GVA – Gross Value Added. This is described by the Office for National Statistics as the contribution to the economy of eachindividual producer, industry or sector in the United Kingdom. A weakness in using ONS data to describe the value of the City Region is that Halton and Warringtonare combined; using a combination of analysis by Cambridge Econometrics and the TMP research team we have disaggregated this data. Be aware that any GVArelated figure for the whole City Region or Halton are based on this disaggregation, not only on ONS figures.

LIVERPOOLCITY REGION

£21.9bneconomy


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Change in City RegionEconomy

One weakness in GVA data is thetiming of its release; officialstatistics always lag behindcurrent performance. Latest GVAfigures relate to 2009, but werepublished two years later inDecember 2011. After a period ofgrowth the UK economy fellsharply in 2009, including that ofthe City Region, but it fared betterthan the country as a whole:

• From 2008 to 2009 UK GVAdropped 2.7%

• From 2008 to 2009 LiverpoolCity Region GVA dropped 1.7%

In the five years to 2009, thegrowth rate of the City of Liverpoolalone closely matched the nationalperformance, outperforming thewider Liverpool City Region.

Lower growth in Sefton and Wirralheld back the headline figure for thewider area including Warrington,Flintshire and Wrexham as well asthe City Region.

Liverpool City Region displayedresilience during the 2008/09recession, not showing as muchof a drop as comparator urbanareas.

Figure 15, GVA Growth modelsGVA up to 2011, calculated using acombination of national GVA andGDP data and recent results fromthe Annual Population Survey.This suggests that the City Regionwill have had a slight drop in GVA during 2011 (in part at leastconnected to public sector cuts),before expecting growth in 2012.The City Region economy at theend of 2011 could have beenworth £21.5 billion at 2009 prices.

GVA 5-yearGrowth

(2004-2009)

UK 17.4%

Liverpool City Region 12.4%

Liverpool 18.9%

Knowsley & St.Helens 15.6%

Wirral 7.9%

Sefton 2.0%

Halton 5.6%

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Liverpool City RegionLiverpool Liverpool City Region (modelled)UK (modelled)UK

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Cha

nge

in e

cono

mic

val

ue (i

ndex

ed to

200

7)

Table 2GVA Growth 2004 - 2009

Figure 15GVA Growth



The rebuilding of The Everyman Theatre - a cultural cornerstone of Liverpoollife will enhance the Everyman’s reputation as one of the UK’s leading andmost innovative theatres and establish the new venue as an important hub inthe City Region’s creative sector.

£5.9m investment from European Regional Development Fund.


12.4%GVA growth in last 5 years


24

GVA per capita is a way of viewingthe relative position of the localeconomy within the nationalpicture. Liverpool City Region isranked 33rd out of 37 similarareas across the UK, (see GVA perCapita; Current Rank Order andchange over 5 years table 3).

The City Region includes Sefton andWirral which are ranked near thebottom, with a drop in ranking ontheir position five years ago.Liverpool City moved up tenpositions in the ranking (see table 3).


Table 4City Regions

Area GVA 2009 Change Change (£m) 2004-09 2008-09

Liverpool City Region* 21,913 12.4% -1.7%West Yorkshire 39,266 13.3% -1.9%

Tyne & Wear 23,014 12.3% -2.1%

South Yorkshire 19,876 14.4% -2.3%

Greater Manchester 45,690 10.9% -2.6%

West Midlands 45,802 8.0% -2.6%

* Excluding Halton. Source: ONS, Regional GVA and TMP Modeling.

Source: ONS, Regional GVA and TMP Modeling.


Table 5Cities

Area GVA 2009 Change Change 2004-09 2004-09 2008-09

Liverpool 8,767 18.9% -0.4%Nottingham 7,603 12.2% -0.6%

Glasgow City 17,343 19.6% -0.7%

Bristol (City of) 10,921 16.6% -0.9%

Sheffield 9,578 16.4% -1.5%

Birmingham 19,622 11.1% -1.7%

Manchester (South) 30,896 12.6% -2.0%

Newcastle 14,594 14.1% -2.0%

Cardiff (Vale of Glamorgan) 9,615 15.0% -2.1%

Kingston upon Hull 4,079 7.5% -2.2%

Leeds 17,858 13.8% -2.4%

Belfast 8,003 13.5% -3.2%

Area Rank 5-yearchange

W Yorkshire 15 �1

Gtr Manchester 16 �1

W Midlands 17 �4

Tyne & Wear 24 �0

S Yorkshire 31 �1

Liverpool City Region 33 �1

Area Rank 5-yearchange

Liverpool 34 �10

Halton 41 �9

Knowsley & St.Helens 111 �3

Sefton 131 �9

Wirral 133 �1

Table 3GVA Per Capita: Current rank order and change over 5 years



25


GVA is based on workplace. Anarea may score relatively low interms of economic contributionbecause a large proportion of itsresidents work elsewhere. This isespecially true of Liverpool CityRegion, where there are significantcommuting flows from Wirral andSefton into Liverpool.


Figure 17 represents the absolutecontribution to the economy bydifferent sectors, both in the City Region and the wider area.The wider area includesWarrington, Flintshire andWrexham as well as the CityRegion. Source ONS, Census 2001 data, weighted by 2001 – 2011 employment

(residence and workplace) and / population changes.

Source ONS, GVA

Figure 16Commuting Flows to/from Liverpool

Figure 17Contribution to the Economy by Sector

Agriculture

Other services

Information &communication

Real estate activities

Construction

Financial / insuranceactivities

Business service activities

Production

Distribution; transport; accomodation and food

Public administration;education; health

Wider Area Liverpool City RegionGVA (£m)

£0 £1,000 £2,000 £3,000 £4,000 £5,000 £6,000 £7,000 £8,000

30,500

10,50019,000

12,00021,500

3,000

19,000

4,500

5,000

2,000

1,500

9,500

St.Helens

Liverpool

Halton

Outside City Region

KnowsleySefton

Wirral

The new £72m Museum of Liverpool – is the largest new international museumbuilt in Britain for over a century. It is the world’s first museum devoted to thehistory of a regional city and a significant addition to Liverpool City Region’sdestination offer attracting increasing numbers of domestic and overseas visitors.

Part funded through European Regional Development Fund.


26

Population

One of the key drivers of theeconomy is population growth,especially working-agepopulation. The latest dataavailable, for 2010, showed thatthe total population of LiverpoolCity Region was 1.473 million:

• 955,200 aged 16-64• 267,500 children under 16• 250,200 65 and over.

It should be remembered whenviewing population data for 2011 itis modelled by ONS from the lastpublished census, in 2001.

As with economic value, the CityRegion is starting from a low base,both in terms of population growthand those of working age. To someextent surrounding areas provideinward flows for commuting,leisure and shopping.

WestMidlands

GreaterManchester

WestYorkshire

LiverpoolCity Region

SouthYorkshire

Tyne & Wear

Total population

Total population

Aged 16-64

Aged 16-64

Source: ONS, Mid Year Population Estimates.

Figure 18Population Levels by Local Authority

Source: ONS, Mid Year Population Estimates.

Figure 19Population Comparisons



1.473mtotal population


27

Amongst the areas this applies toare:

• Cheshire West & Cheshire• Warrington• West Lancashire• Flintshire• Wrexham.

Taken together, these areasrepresent a population of 919,800,of which 586,600 are aged 16-64.

The population of Liverpool CityRegion and these surroundingareas taken together is similar tothe populations of Zurich, Auvergnein France and South Sweden.

Up until 2007, the figures showed a continual reduction in the population of Liverpool CityRegion, but more recently thisappears to have stabilised withfigures indicating slow growth.Meanwhile there is a significantdifference in growth compared

with the UK and the comparatorcities. The population level aged18-24 increased over the past tenyears, partly due to growth of thecity’s three universities, but therewas a significant drop in thoseaged 25 to 44 years. These trendswere not experienced bycomparator cities.

Figure 21 Population by Agecontrasts the populationdemographics of the City Regionwith those of the country as awhole. It shows the gap that existsin terms of the proportion of 30 to44-year-olds living in the area.This is especially significant aspeople in that age group might beexpected to play a big part inincreasing entrepreneurship. Thechallenge is to encourage greaterretention of university graduatesas well as more inward migration.Data indicates this has improvedover the past two years.

Figure 20Population Change over Time

Table 6Comparisons of Population Change

Figure 21Population by Age

10-year change Total Working 18-24 25-44Pop age

UK +6% +6% +21% -2%

West Midlands +3% +6% +24% -1%

Greater Manchester +4% +7% +30% 0%

West Yorkshire +8% +12% +36% +6%

Liverpool City Region -1% +1% +26% -11%

South Yorkshire +5% +8% +36% -3%

Tyne & Wear +3% +7% +32% -4%

90

92

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Liverpool City RegionLondon & SEUK

Cha

nge

(inde

xed

to 2

000)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

‹11

- 4

5 -

910

- 1

415

- 1

920

- 2

425

- 2

930

- 3

435

- 3

940

- 4

445

- 4

954

- 5

455

- 5

960

- 6

465

- 6

970

- 7

475

- 7

980

- 8

485

+

Liverpool City Region

Challenge forLiverpool City Region

London & SEUK

Source: ONS, Mid Year Population Estimates



Investment of more than £200m in this leisure, retail and residentialdevelopment demonstrates both developer and consumer confidence inLiverpool City Region. The development will provide 80,000 sq ft of grade Aoffice space, 442 new hotel rooms, a new 6 screen digital cinema and afurther 160,000 sq ft of prime commercial space.


28


A number of datasets provideinformation about the CityRegion’s economic performance,including levels of employment,self-employment, part time, fulltime levels and overall economicactivity. Much of this data comesfrom the Annual PopulationSurvey which provides a snapshotfrom March 2011.

Table 7Economic Activity

(% aged 16-64) LCR UKEconomically active 72.2 76.0

Employment rate 64.9 70.2

Employees 58.0 60.7

Self-employed 6.4 9.0

Source: ONS. Annual Population Survey

The Annual Population Surveyestimated that 72% of those aged16-64 in the City Region wereeconomically active – this is belowthe UK as a whole and belowmany comparable areas.

To give some measure of thechallenge for the City Region toachieve an economically activepopulation on a par with that ofthe UK pre-recession, it needs anadditional 41,000 people to beeconomically active.

Likewise, self-employment is alsobehind national levels. For the CityRegion to be on a par with the UKas a whole, it needs an additional26,000 self-employed.

The proportion of economicallyactive people in Liverpool itself islower than elsewhere in the CityRegion. Sefton and Wirral have ahigher proportion of self-employed.


Figure 23Overall Patterns of Employment

Figure 22Economic Activity Rate: 16-64 years

UK

68

WestYorkshire

Tyne &Wear

SouthYorkshire

GreaterManchester

Liverpool CityRegion

WestMidlands

70 72 74 76

90

95

100

105

110

115

Private SectorEmployment

Public SectorEmployment

Self-employed

Cha

nge

(inde

xed

to Q

1 20

07)

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2007 2008 2009 2010 ‘11

90

95

100

105

110

115

Private SectorEmployment

Public SectorEmployment

Self-employed

Cha

nge

(inde

xed

to Q

1 20

07)

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

2007 2008 2009 2010 ‘11

Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey




29

Recent Trends

Over the 12 months to March 2011,private sector employment inLiverpool City Region is estimatedto have grown by 2.2%, a greaterrate than the national figure. It isdifficult to pin down with anyaccuracy where this growth hascome from, but crude analysisseems to indicate a change led bytransport and communication, up11%, distribution, hotels andrestaurants up 6%, manufacturingup 5%, (Source: Annual PopulationSurvey, March 2011).

This result may be an early indicatorof successful change driven by thefour key growth sectors.

Public sector growth continuedthroughout the recession, until therecruitment freeze in 2010, butdropped by 3.5% over the past yearin the City Region; this issignificantly more of a loss thanexperienced across the UK. In fact,national levels of public sectoremployment showed low growth,0.6%, driven mainly by London andthe South East’s rise of 2.1%.

Figure 25Employee Job Numbers

Figure 24Economic Activity and Self Employment Rates

Sept 2008Sept 2008

Sept 2009Sept 2009

Sept 2010Sept 2010

0

300

600

900

1200

1500

Wes

tM

idla

nds

Gre

ater

Man

ches

ter

Wes

tYo

rksh

ire

Live

rpoo

lCi

ty R

egio

n

Sout

hYo

rksh

ire

Tyne

&W

ear

000’

s

Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey.

Source: ONS, Business Register and EmploymentSurvey

Med ePad has started trials of its interactive mobile touch screen devicewithin the NHS. They are pioneering an innovative approach to development,manufacturing and marketing; identifying future growth sectors andinternational markets from their base at Liverpool Science Park.

Part funded by North West Fund for Biomedical.


30

Figure 26Sector Composition of Employment

Hea

lth

& s

ocia

l wor

kW

hole

sale

& r

etai

l tra

deEd

ucat

ion

Pub

lic a

dmin

and

def

ence

Man

ufac

turi

ngA

dmin

& s

uppo

rt s

ervi

ces

Acc

om &

food

ser

vice

Pro

fess

iona

l, sc

ient

ific

& te

chni

cal

Tran

spor

tatio

n &

sto

rage

Con

stru

ctio

nFi

nanc

ial &

insu

ranc

eA

rts,

ent

erta

inm

ent &

rec

reat

ion

Oth

er s

ervi

ce a

ctiv

ities

Info

rmat

ion

& c

omm

unic

atio

nR

eal e

stat

eU

tiliti

esA

gric

ultu

re, f

ores

try

& fi

shin

gM

inin

g &

qua

rryi

ng

Liverpool City Region GB

0

20

%

20

15

15

10

10

5

5

Source: ONS, Business Register andEmployment Survey


Self-employment in the CityRegion grew by 3.2% in the past12 months, almost twice thenational level of 1.9%.

Business Register andEmployment Survey data showthat employee job numbers inLiverpool City Region declinedbetween 2008 and 2009, duringthe recession, a factor noted by allcomparable areas. Employee jobnumbers decreased by a further1.2% from 2009 to 2010; a smallerdecrease than seen across theNorth West of England as a whole.-1.6%, but a much higher dropthan seen nationally; Great Britainrecorded a drop in employee jobsof -0.5%.

Figure 27 Employee job numbersby sector and annual change2009-2010 shows employment bysector in 2010 across the CityRegion and how this changedagainst 2009.

It can be seen that health and socialwork employed the highest number

in Liverpool City Region, followed bywholesale and retail trade. Noticethat the change in 2010 appeared to be led by growth in administrationand support services, which willinclude the activity of employmentand temporary agencies, to a lesserextent, in health and social work and professional, scientific andtechnical. But construction andmanufacturing saw significantdrops, the former partially as anumber of building projects came to completion, the latter due to theeffects of the recession. Data fromthe recent Annual Population Surveysuggests that after this phase ofreduction manufacturing in the CityRegion in now showing some signsof improvement.

The split between public andprivate sector employee jobs inthe City Region was 29:71 against25:75 nationally – and this afterthe initial stages of job cuts up toQ1 2011. Further public sectorcuts will have a disproportionateimpact within the area.

Figure 27Employee Job Numbers by Sector & Annual Change 2009 – 2010

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

Hea

lth

and

soci

al w

ork

Who

lesa

le a

ndre

tail

trad

e

Educ

atio

n

Pub

lic a

dmin

istr

atio

nan

d de

fenc

e

Man

ufac

turi

ng

Adm

inis

trat

ion

and

supp

ort s

ervi

ce

Acc

omm

odat

ion

and

food

ser

vice

Pro

fess

iona

l, sc

ient

ific

and

tech

nica

l

Tran

spor

tatio

nan

d st

orag

e

Con

stru

ctio

n

Fina

ncia

l and

insu

ranc

e

Art

s, e

nter

tain

men

tan

d re

crea

tion

Oth

er s

ervi

ce a

ctiv

ities

Info

rmat

ion

and

com

mun

icat

ion

Rea

l est

ate

Util

ities

Change

2200 2500

9001500 1600

-2200

-1000

-4500

-2600-2000 -2000-1600

-900

9300

-1100

-7300

2010

Source: ONS, Business Register and Employment Survey


31

Looking at changes in employmentby job category over the past yearmuch of the increase has comefrom lower-grade occupations;there has been little change oreven a drop in other categories,including the calibre of jobsimportant to attract and/or retaingraduates in the City Region and toincrease GVA.

There has been significant growthin male part time employmentfrom 2003 onwards; both locallyand nationally. The last two yearshas seen a trend of reduced levelsof females in the workplace inLiverpool City Region – both full

time and part time; this is a levelof reduction not recordednationally. For example, from 2009to 2011 the number of female full-time workers decreased by 2.7%in the city region (1.1% nationally)and the number of female part-time workers decreased by 2.9%(no change nationally).

Currently both male and femalefull and part time employment lagbehind national levels.

The average full time wage inLiverpool City Region is 2% lowerthan a year ago; £463.70 grossweekly compared to £472.60 in 2010.

Figure 28Occupational Composition of Employment

UK LCR

Male Full Time 65.9% 59.9%

Male Part Time 8.5% 7.2%

UK LCR

Female Full Time 37.4% 35.3%

Female Part Time 27.3% 25.8%

Table 8Percentage of Population Aged 16-64 Currently in Employment, by Gender

Figure 29Average Wage Levels

£300

£350

£400

£450

£500

£550

£600

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

UK Liverpool City Region

£500.70

£463.70

Cha

nge

2010

-201

1

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Managers& SeniorOfficials77,990

ProfessionalOccupations

77,100

AssociateProf & Tech

58,600

Admin &Secreterial

75,200

SkilledTrades57,900

PersonalServices64,800

Sales &Customer

Service56,600

Semi-Skilled49,000

ElementaryOccupations

79,200


Source: ONS, Annual Survey of Hours and Earnings

Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey.

Note: Chart relates to occupations as opposed to sectors of employment (figure 27).

Liverpool Innovation Park has created an internationally recognised centre ofexcellence for knowledge-intensive and technology based firms. This is a keycomponent of Liverpool City Region’s growing knowledge economy.

£1.42million of European Regional Development Funding.


32


Unemployment

One measure of unemployment isto look at the level of job seekerallowance (JSA) claimants. Notethat claimant data is all residencebased and does not reflect travel towork patterns.

Data shows there were 55,759 JSAclaimants in the City Region inSeptember 2011; 10% up on thesame period in the previous year.

Claimant rates tend to be highestin Liverpool and Knowsley. We notethat rates are also significantlylower in the immediate hinterland,although of course, these form atleast in part some of thecommuting residents of the CityRegion.

LCR GBAPS Unemployment rate 10.1% 7.8%

APS Model-based estimates of unemployment 9.8% 7.6%

JSA Claimants 5.6% 3.7%

Table 9March 2011: Different official estimates for levels of unemployment

Figure 30Claimant Count Rates

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

UK

Wes

tM

idla

nds

Live

rpoo

lCi

ty R

egio

n

Tyne

side

Sout

hYo

rksh

ire

Gre

ater

Man

ches

ter

Wes

tYo

rtsh

ire

Sept 2007Sept 2007

Sept 2010Sept 2010

Sept 2011Sept 2011

Cla

iman

t Rat

e

Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey (APS) & Claimant Count

Source: ONS, Claimant Count

Table 10Claimant Count Rates

Halton Knowsley Liverpool5.6% 6.5% 7.0%

Sefton St.Helens Wirral5.2% 5.0% 4.9%

Cheshire West Warrington West Lancs3.2% 3.3% 3.6%



33

Figure 31 JSA Claimant Trendsshows the changing trends on anannual basis. Clearly the gapbetween the City Region and theUK showed signs of reducing pre-recession; even now this is not ashigh as historical data. The graphnow shows a rise again over thelast 12 months; and this is at leastin part associated with publicsector cuts.

After several years of progress,the recession and public sectorcuts appear to have returned theproportions of those aged 50+claiming for six or more monthsback to near 2000 levels, (seefigure 33, Aged 50+ claiming morethan 6 months). Whilst nationallyand locally the proportion of thoseaged 16 to 24 claiming for sixmonths or more is at the highestlevel for 10 years.

Figure 31JSA Claimant Trends


0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Sept2000

Sept2001

Sept2002

Sept2003

Sept2004

Sept2005

Sept2006

Sept2007

Sept2008

Sept2009

Sept2010

Sept2011

Res

iden

ce-b

ased

rat

e


Inde

xed

to 2

000

50

100

150

200

250

300

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011



Figure 32Aged 16-24+ Claiming more than 6 months


Inde

xed

to 2

000

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011


Figure 33Aged 50+ Claiming more than 6 months

ACAL Energy is commercialising fuel cell technology. The development based in Liverpool City Region will create products with enormous potential for global applications across telecommunication and automotive sectors.

£400,000 investment from The North West Fund for Energy and Environmental.


34

Business Base

To measure business stock levels,the Office for National StatisticsBusiness Demography is used;here the most recent data is for2010 performance, published inDecember 2011. The current datareflects the impact of therecession in the City Region, butthe full impact of public sectorcuts is yet to come.

It is estimated that Liverpool CityRegion has 36,885 activebusinesses, an increase of 5.4%since 2005, but this represents adrop of 4.3% on last year. Withinthe City Region, Knowsleyexperienced the highest growthrate in active enterprise levelsfrom 2005, at 15.7% and saw amuch lower fall last year of 3.0%.

The 2009 figures showed thatsince 2005, the business base ofLiverpool City Region grew by

10%, the highest of all comparatorareas and higher than the averageEngland rate of 7%.

The growth in active enterprises isthe difference between births ofenterprises and deaths ofenterprises. The chart belowsuggests that unlike many of itscomparator areas Liverpool CityRegion saw fewer enterprisesclose. 5,225 businesses closed in2010 against 5,310 in 2009,indicating resilience amongst thebusiness population. What isclearly important is the need tofoster new business initiatives, asover the past year Liverpool CityRegion saw much lower birthrates than many areas. Thenumber of new enterprises beingformed dropped to 3,885 from4,215 in 2009. This remains a keychallenge for Liverpool CityRegion economy growth.

Figure 35Change in Actual Enterprises Born/Dying, 2009 -2010

Figure 34Change in Stock of Businesses

90

95

100

105

110

115

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Liverpool City RegionLondon & SE

Cha

nge

(inde

xed

to 2

000)

UK

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

UK Tyne & Wear GreaterManchester

SouthYorkshire

WestYorkshire

WestMidlands

LiverpoolCity Region

Changes in deathsChanges in births

%

Source: ONS, Business Demography Data




35

Figure 36Number of Active Businesses

Figure 37Change in Stock of Active Businesses

Source: ONS, Business Demography Data Source: ONS, Business Demography Data

Ambitious Minds is developing a portfolio of financial training courses andan interactive finance programme for schools. These will enhance thespecialist training services available in a wide and diverse range ofmarkets.

£350,000 from The North West Fund for Venture Capital.

Table 111 Year Survival Rate of Newborn Enterprises

Area 2007 to 2008 2008 to 2009 2009 to 2010UK 95.4 92.0 90.8

Comparator areas 95.6 93.1 91.1

Liverpool City Region 94.2 93.6 91.4Knowsley 92.0 92.3 93.7

Liverpool 94.4 93.0 90.2

St.Helens 94.8 95.0 92.8

Sefton 95.2 95.4 91.8

Wirral 94.4 93.4 91.8

Halton 92.1 92.1 90.8




Another way of considering thisdata is to look at businesses per1,000 residents of working age(usually referred to as ‘businessdensity’). In 2010, there were 38.6enterprises per 1,000 working agepopulation in Liverpool CityRegion. Lowest levels of densitywere found in Knowsley, 27.0.Looking at the UK as a whole,there were 57.0 enterprises per1,000 working age population.

However, in 2010 survival rates ofbusinesses in Liverpool CityRegion remained above nationallevels and those of itscomparators.

During these times of crisis, it isinevitable that survival rates werelower than seen in previous years,although the drop in survival rateswas not as sharp as elsewhere.

Taking the longer term view, datafor both the UK and locally showsthat whilst survival rates are oftengood for new enterprises in theirfirst year, this tails off sharply forthe second and third years.

For Liverpool City Region, it is onlyat five years that we see survivalrates falling significantly belowboth national and comparatorlevels, 41.3% against 44.4%nationally.

Figure 38Survival Rates, Businesses Born in 2005

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Base 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year

UK Liverpool City RegionLondon & SE



Table 12Business Density: Per 1,000,working age population

2005 2010UK 56.0 57.0

LCR 37.0 38.6Halton 36.4 39.8

Knowsley 24.4 27.0

Liverpool 36.7 37.9

Sefton 43.4 43.9

St.Helens 33.4 35.7

Wirral 40.2 42.1

36


Matching skills training to future employer needs in growth sectors is vital forfuture competitiveness. Liverpool Community College has forged an innovativecollaboration with Balfour Beatty to train 14 students each year in commercial,electrical and mechanical skills relevant to the construction sector. The schemerepresents a significant commitment from Balfour Beatty It is under continuousreview to ensure the skills needs of the sector are correctly identified and fulfilled.

Figure 39GCSE Attainment

Figure 40NVQ2

Figure 41NVQ4+

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

05/06 06/07 07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

England Liverpool City Region

% p

upils

ach

ievi

ng 5

+ G

CSE

s(in

c M

aths

+ E

nglis

h)

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


% w

orki

ng a

ge e

duca

ted

to a

t lea

st le

vel 2

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010


% w

orki

ng a

ge e

duca

ted

to a

t lea

st le

vel 4

Source: The Department for Education GCSE attainment Source: ONS, Annual Population Survey


Skills

An important aspect of developingthe economy, both in terms ofhigher levels of GVA and higherjob numbers, rests in developingthe skills of the population.

The City Region traditionallylagged behind in the proportion ofpupils achieving five or moreGCSEs including Maths andEnglish. The latest data (2010/11academic year) indicates thatdespite a sharp increase inachievement for the City Region inthe previous year, a small gapagain shows between LiverpoolCity Region and the nationalaverage; pupils in the City Regionrecorded 56.5% compared to58.3% nationally (see figure 39,GSCE attainment).

This should not detract from thesignificant improvements madewithin the City Region over thepast five years, dramaticallyraising the skills of pupils leavingsecondary school.

The impact of the aboveimprovement now seems to beevident as filtering down into thewider population. Currently theCity Region lags 3% behindnational levels for ‘At least NVQ 2’,but this is a significant leapforward in performance, with thegap to national levels havingnarrowed from 9% in 2004. Inother words, a 10% increase in thelevel of population educated to atleast Level 2 has been achieved.

37



Around 31% of the working agepopulation in the UK, werequalified to at least Level 4.Broadly, this means degree orequivalent level, compared to 24%in Liverpool City Region (SeeFigure 41, NVQ4+, page 37).

At the other end of the scale, theCity Region continues to recordsignificant levels of the workingage population who have noformal qualifications. This iscurrently 15%, compared to thenational average of 11%.

The importance of skills isdemonstrated by figure 43Working age Population byQualification Level; they show theworking age population by theirqualification levels and whether

they were economically active orinactive in December 2010. Theyshow both at a national and locallevel that there is more likelihoodof being economically active withhigher qualification levels.

Despite the economic pressures,it appears that in December 2010organisations were not cuttingback on training, both nationallyand locally – indeed, there isevidence that local industries inthe production sectorssignificantly increased theirtraining of staff to above nationallevels from 18.9% to 20.6%, whichis a positive step for the CityRegion’s performance (See Table14, Employee Training, page 39).

Figure 42No Qualifications

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

England

% w

orki

ng a

ge w

ith n

o fo

rmal

qua

lific

atio

ns



University students 2008/9 2009/10 2010/11Liverpool University 19,380 19,950 20.590

John Moores University 24,445 25,995 25,860

Liverpool Hope 7,110 6,980 7,430

Total 50,935 52,925 53,880

Table 13Graduate Numbers

Source: HESA Data

38


First Ark Group, the housing trust based in the Liverpool City Region, hasadapted to the challenging economic conditions facing their tenants and at thesame time restructured their own operations. With advice from WeightmansFirst Ark Group has adopted new methods of delivering its service. The Grouphas also devised ambitious growth and development plans to ensure itsbusiness remains at the forefront of social housing provision in the City Region.

Liverpool City Region UK

Figure 43Working Age Population by Qualification Level

% receiving training in last 13 weeks LCR UKfull time workers 29.0% 27.4%

part time workers 22.8% 24.6%

Service industries 29.2% 28.8%

Production industries 20.6% 19.8%

Public sector 40.2% 41.2%

23.0%

3.5% 5.0% 5.6% 4.8% 9.0%

15.0% 16.2% 11.4% 6.6% 31.1% 14.0% 13.9% 10.6% 6.4%

Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 None

Liverpool City Region 2010 ActiveLiverpool City Region 2010 Inactive

Level 4 Level 3 Level 2 Level 1 None

UK 2010 Active UK 2010 Inactive

10%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

10%

5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

30%

25%

4.6% 3.9% 4.6% 4.2% 6.8%

Source: ONS Annual Population Survey Source: ONS Annual Population Survey

Table 14Employee Training


39


04Economic Value

Employment

Population


Impact of Delivering the Growth Sector Action Plans

ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR LIVERPOOL CITY REGION

4

Liverpool City Region is to benefit from Irish Sea Zone offshore wind developmentsattracting £18bn investment in the next decade.


ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR LIVERPOOL CITY REGION 04

Economic Value

In 2011, TMP commissioned a revised set of economicforecasts for Liverpool City Region. The forecasts wereproduced by specialistsCambridge Econometrics (CE)using its Local EconomyForecasting Model, tailored toeach district and built into a CityRegion wide picture.

Two sets of forecasts wereproduced:

• Baseline Forecast estimateperformance relative to thenational economy, assuming noadditional investment affectsthe underlying economic trends.

• Policy projections examine theimpact that delivery of growthsector action plans and keyinfrastructure projects wouldhave on the economy.

Forecasts need to be treated withcaution as they offer a broad guideto the direction of travel of aneconomy. Baseline forecasts havebeen calculated using anextrapolation of historical datatrends, starting from the 1980’s,and may therefore not pick uprecent developments in somesectors such as Low Carbon andthe Visitor Economy.

All projections include latest data3

and are consistent with theforecasts for the UK and NorthWest economies from CambridgeEconometrics publicationEconomic Prospects for the Nationsand Regions of the UK, July 2011.

In terms of GVA per capita,Liverpool City Region wasestimated to have seen fastergrowth than the North West andUK as a whole between 2005 and2010.

Figure 44Baseline GVA Per Capita

Table 15Baseline GVA Per Capita

Source: LEFM, Baseline consistent with Cambridge Econometrics’UK Regional Economic Forecast, July 2011.

3 Including employment and GVA (output). Estimates of historical district-level GVA in LEFM are made by applying productivity by industry calculated from ONSNUTS2 (Merseyside) sub-regional accounts data to district-level employment by industry. NUTS3 data are not used as thay are not considered robust enough.

4 Using a workplace-based measure of value-added.

* 5 year growth forecast (2010 - 2015)

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

UK North West LCR

£000

, ref

yea

r 20

06

Source: LEFM, Baseline consistent with CambridgeEconometrics’ UK Regional Economic Forecast,July 2011

2009 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020-(£bn 2005 2010 2015 2020 20252006) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa)

Liverpool City Region 13.8 1.9 0.5 1.5 2.4 2.4Halton 19.3 1.8 1.1 2.4 2.4 2.5

Knowsley 12.7 2.6 0.9 2.4 2.5 2.3

Liverpool 18.0 2.4 1.2 1.1 2.4 2.4

Sefton 10.7 0.8 -1.6 1.1 2.5 2.4

St Helens 11.4 3.0 0.1 1.6 2.2 2.2

Wirral 10.2 0.6 0.1 1.6 2.1 2.1

North West 15.9 1.9 0.2 1.7 2.2 2.2

UK 18.4 2.3 0.0 1.5 2.1 2.2

42


1.6%5 year GVA growth*


Even so, GVA per capita inLiverpool City Region wasestimated to have been around15% lower than the average forthe North West and 25% lowerthan the UK average4 in 2010.

Growth in output for Liverpool CityRegion between 2005 and 2010was estimated to have been onlyslightly slower than in the NorthWest as a whole, at just under0.5% per year, reflecting in partthe different mix of sectors in theCity Region economy relative tothe North West. The pattern ofperformance varied amongst CityRegion districts, with Halton andLiverpool estimated to have seenthe fastest growth of 1.25% peryear in the City Region.

GVA is projected to grow byaround 1.5% per year up to 2015,compared with growth of around2% per year forecast for the NorthWest and UK.

Halton and Knowsley, however,are projected to see growth ofaround 2.5% over this period.Liverpool, on the other hand, isprojected to see growth of only1.25% per year, reflecting a strongcontraction of public sectorspending.

In the longer term between 2015and 2025, output growth in theCity Region as a whole isprojected to be similar to theNorth West average, at around2.5% per year.

Between 2015 and 2025, very slowpopulation growth combined withthe increase in output growthprojected for the City Region willmean that growth in GVA percapita is expected to exceedgrowth in the North West.

Figure 45Baseline GVA

Table 16Baseline GVA

Note: Total includes ownership of dwellings.

Source: LEFM Baseline consistent with Cambridge Econometrics’ UK Regional Economic Forecast, July 2011.

2009 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020-(£bn 2005 2010 2015 2020 20252006) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa)

Liverpool City Region 20.3 1.6 0.4 1.6 2.5 2.5Halton 2.3 1.6 1.2 2.6 2.7 2.7

Knowsley 1.9 2.4 0.8 2.6 2.6 2.5

Liverpool 8.0 2.3 1.3 1.3 2.6 2.6

Sefton 2.9 0.4 -2.0 0.9 2.3 2.4

St Helens 2.0 3.0 0.1 1.8 2.3 2.4

Wirral 3.1 0.2 -0.1 1.5 2.1 2.1

North West 109.8 2.1 0.5 2.0 2.5 2.5

UK 1134.7 2.7 0.6 2.1 2.7 2.8

2000 2005

UK North West LCR

2010 2015 2020 202580

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170

180

Inde

x, Y

ear

2000

= 1

00

Source: LEFM, Baseline consistent with CambridgeEconometrics’ UK Regional Economic Forecast,July 2011

43


Note: Workplace based employment.Source: LEFM Baseline consistent with Cambridge Econometrics, UK Regional Economic Forecast, July 2011.

Note: Workplace based employment.Source: LEFM Baseline consistent with Cambridge Econometrics’ UK Regional Economic Forecast, July 2011.

Table 18Baseline Employment by Sector

Table 17Baseline Employment by Sector in Liverpool City Region, NW and UK (% pa)

Employment

Employment in Liverpool CityRegion as a whole was estimatedto have fallen by around 0.75% peryear between 2005 and 20105,compared with a fall of around0.5% a year in the North West as awhole and around 0.25% per yearin the UK. The sharpest falls wereseen in Sefton, around 2.5% peryear and Halton, around 2% peryear. These reflect job cuts inretailing, banking and finance,

education and miscellaneousservices in Sefton. In Halton jobcuts were in retailing, landtransport services and non-financial business services.Employment in Liverpool wasestimated to have increasedslightly over this period, reflectingrelatively strong growth inconstruction, distribution, hotelsand catering, land transport,education and health.

2009 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020- 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

(000s) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa)Agriculture 1.8 -1.8 23.6 -1.5 -3.0 -2.3

Mining & quarrying 0.1 -8.0 -14.2 -2.1 -1.0 -0.9

Manufacturing 53.1 -4.6 -4.6 -1.0 -1.0 -0.8

Electricity, gas & water 1.2 -0.4 11.0 -2.1 -3.6 -2.6

Construction 39.5 1.2 -2.3 0.6 1.1 0.7

Distribution, hotels & catering 136.1 0.1 -1.2 0.1 0.5 0.0

Transport & comms 40.0 3.6 -0.3 0.7 0.2 0.3

Financial & business services 107.5 3.1 -2.1 1.2 1.0 0.9

Government & other services 266.5 2.9 0.7 -1.5 0.7 0.9

Total 645.8 1.3 -0.8 -0.4 0.5 0.5

5 The latest employment data for Liverpool City Region from the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES) is for 2009.CE’ s estimate of total employment (workplace jobs) includes an estimate for self-employment. The figure for employment in Liverpool City Region in 2010 is anestimate, made by CE, consistent with the latest ONS employment data for the Northwest in 2010.

LCR North West UK2000- 2010- 2000- 2010- 2000- 2010-2010 2025 2010 2025 2010 2025

Agriculture 10.2 -2.3 2.9 -2.1 1.0 -1.2

Mining & quarrying -11.1 -1.4 -4.6 -0.9 -3.0 -1.1

Manufacturing -1.6 -1.0 -4.6 -0.7 -4.3 -0.9

Electricity, gas & water 5.1 -2.8 -1.6 -2.0 -0.1 -1.8

Construction -0.6 0.8 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.0

Distribution, hotels & catering -0.5 0.2 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 0.6

Transport & comms 1.7 0.4 0 .9 0.3 -0.2 0.4

Financial & business services 0.5 1.0 1.7 1.2 1.8 1.3

Government & other services 1.8 0.0 1.9 0.4 1.6 0.4

Total 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.6


44


Source: ONS mid-year estimates and 2008 sub-regional projections.

Table 19Baseline Population

The Baseline Forecast foremployment in Liverpool CityRegion between 2010 and 2015 isfor a fall of around 0.5% per year,compared with a slight increase inthe North West and UK as awhole. Growth in employmentwithin the City Region, is projectedto be fastest, although onlyaround 0.25% per year in Halton,representing something of abounce-back from the sharp fallover the previous five years.Employment in Liverpool, on theother hand, is projected to fall byjust over 0.5% per year and inSefton by around 0.75% per year.In the longer term, employmentgrowth in the City Region, as inthe rest of the UK, is expected topick up once again, around 0.5%per year between 2015 and 2025,but be somewhat slower than thegrowth forecast for the NorthWest, just over 0.5% per year andUK, nearer 0.75% per year. Theonly local authority in the CityRegion expected to see growthstronger than the North Westaverage over this period isLiverpool.

Longer term employment growthover the next 15 years in LiverpoolCity Region is expected to bedriven by the financial andbusiness services. The only broadsectors forecast to grow fasterthan the North West averagebetween 2010 and 2025 areconstruction, transport andcommunications.

Employment in Government andother services, which accounts fora much larger proportion of theCity Region economy than it doesin the North West and UK as awhole (41% of employment inLiverpool City Region comparedwith only 34% in the North Westand 33% in the UK) is forecast toemploy the same number in 2025as in 2010 around 266,000 (SeeTable 18, Baseline Employment bySector, Page 44).

Population

Negligible growth is forecast in the City Region populationthrough to 2025. In contrast, thepopulation in the North West andthe UK is forecast to grow by0.25% a year and 0.5% per yearrespectively (See Table 19, BaselinePopulation).

2009 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020-2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

(000s) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa)Liverpool City Region 1,469.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1Halton 118.7 -0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2

Knowsley 149.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2

Liverpool 442.3 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2

Sefton 273.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0

St Helens 177.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2

Wirral 308.5 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.0

North West 6,897.9 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3

UK 61,792.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6

45



The Baseline Forecast andprojections for the growth sectorsare shown below.

The growth sectors have beendefined in these forecasts by usingbroad industry categories withinCambridge Econometrics’economic model, rather than thedetailed sector definitions in theLiverpool City Region Action Plansdeveloped by partners.

Consequently, these forecasts arenot directly comparable to theAction Plans and for detailed

understanding of where growthlies in each sector, specificLiverpool City Region Action Plansshould be referenced.

The Low Carbon Economy sectoris estimated to account for justover 2% of employment inLiverpool City Region and asimilar proportion of GVA. Incontrast, the Knowledge Economysector, which there are four sub-sectors, the largest of which isProfessional and Financial, isestimated to account for almost30% of employment and just over

Table 20Baseline Growth Sector Employment in Liverpool City Region

Note: Workplace based employment.Source: LEFM Baseline consistent with Cambridge Econometrics’ UK Regional Economic Forecast, July 2011.

Source: LEFM Baseline consistent with Cambridge Econometrics’ UK Regional Economic Forecast, July 2011.

* Figures quoted in £millions based on 2006 prices.

Table 21Baseline Growth Sector GVA in Liverpool City Region

2009 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020-2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

(000s) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa)Low Carbon 14.6 -0.2 -3.5 0.3 0.3 0.5

Knowledge

Advanced Manufacturing 35.1 -4.3 -3.4 -0.3 -0.8 -0.4

Digital & Creative 25.9 2.0 -5.6 1.3 0.3 0.4

Life Sciences 56.2 1.7 1.6 -1.2 0.7 0.9

Professional & Financial 70.6 3.1 -1.9 1.0 0.9 0.9

Tourism & Visitor 50.0 4.3 -0.6 0.3 0.4 0.7

SuperPort 30.8 2.8 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.4

Total LCR Economy 645.8 1.3 -0.8 -0.4 0.5 0.5

2009 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020-2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

(£m 2006)* (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa)Low Carbon 421.5 1.3 -0.7 6.2 4.3 3.5

Knowledge

Advanced Manufacturing 1,623.9 -2.8 -2.3 4.3 2.1 2.1

Digital & Creative 1,071.1 2.8 0.3 4.7 4.7 5.0

Life Sciences 763.4 4.4 10.5 2.9 5.1 3.7

Professional & Financial 2,842.8 2.1 1.7 2.8 3.0 3.6

Tourism & Visitor 768.5 2.5 -1.9 1.4 2.2 2.4

SuperPort 975.5 0.9 -1.4 3.5 2.2 2.8

Total LCR Economy 20,265.5 1.6 0.4 1.6 2.5 2.5


46


30% of GVA. The Visitor Economysector is estimated to account foralmost 8% of employment but onlyaround 4% of GVA.

The SuperPort sector is estimatedto account for almost 5% of bothemployment and GVA in the CityRegion economy. Of the growthsectors, productivity is estimated tobe highest in the KnowledgeEconomy sector, particularly theAdvanced Manufacturing sub-sector.

Impact of Delivering theGrowth Sector Action Plans

The following section shows theoverall impact of delivering thegrowth sector action plans andkey infrastructure projects suchas Liverpool and Wirral Waters,Liverpool John Lennon AirportExpansion Plan and Kirkby TownCentre. This is the policy-onscenario.

The successful delivery of theplanned projects and growth sector action plans would lead to a substantial increase inemployment across the City Region,with employment being boosted byat least 0.5% in each five-yearperiod from 2010. This would meangrowth in employment in Liverpool

City Region outstripping that in the North West and UK over thenext 15 years.

By 2025, total employment in theCity Region would be around90,000, or 14% higher than in theBaseline Forecast.

GVA also grows much faster thanthe Baseline Forecast, or withoutkey policy initiatives, to end uparound 15% higher in 2025. In thisscenario, population and working-age population is assumed togrow at the same rate as in theBaseline Forecast in which casethere would be a substantialimpact on net (inbound)commuting and so GVA per capitain the City Region would growsharply over the forecast periodand by 2025 would have overtakenthe average for the North West asa whole.

With such a substantial impact onemployment, this scenario hassignificant implications for skills,housing, transport and economicpolicy in the Liverpool City Region.These implications includealigning the skills, occupationsand transport requirements ofthose currently out of work withnew jobs and planning forincreased in-migration andpopulation increase.

Note: Workplace-based employment.

Source: Policy-on scenario October 2011.

Table 22Policy-on Employment

2009 2000- 2005- 2010- 2015- 2020-2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

(000s) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa) (% pa)Liverpool City Region 645.8 1.3 -0.6 0.7 1.2 1.0Halton 56.0 1.5 -1.9 2.2 1.3 0.8

Knowsley 61.2 1.2 -0.5 0.7 1.0 0.8

Liverpool 253.5 2.4 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.2

Sefton 100.5 0.6 -2.4 -0.1 1.0 0.7

St Helens 68.7 1.5 -0.2 0.7 1.0 0.8

Wirral 105.8 -0.4 -0.5 0.8 1.3 0.9

North West 3,346.1 1.1 -0.4 0.1 0.6 0.6

UK 30,945.8 1.0 -0.2 0.2 0.7 0.7

Figure 46Policy-on Employment

Source: Policy-on scenario, October 2011

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

LCR - Policy-on

LCR - Basline

UK

North West

Inde

x, Y

ear

2000

= 1

00

47


05GLOSSARY

5New Exhibition and Events complex at ACC Liverpool will support 1,300 new jobsand generate £40m a year for City Region’s economy.


Advanced economies -Economies with a high level ofgross domestic product percapita, as well as a high degree of industrialisation.

Annual deficit - The annualdifference between currentgovernment spending on goodsand services and total currentrevenue from all types of taxes.

Austerity measures -See Consolidation policies

Balance sheets - Summary of thefinancial balances of a business,“a snapshot of a company’sfinancial condition”.

Budget deficit - The annual deficitplus interest payments on the debt.

Business cycle - Fluctuations ineconomic activity in the wholeeconomy around a long-termgrowth trend; typically shifts overtime between relatively rapidgrowth and periods of contraction.

Business stock - Number ofbusinesses.

Capital expenditure - Spending bya company to acquire or upgradephysical assets such as property,industrial buildings or equipmentto maintain or increase the scopeof their operations.

Cash-flow - The amount of moneygenerated by a business during aspecified period of time.

Comparator areas - GreaterManchester, South Yorkshire,Tyne & Wear, West Midlands andWest Yorkshire.

Consolidation policies - Cuts togovernment spending on goodsand services, reductions tosubsidy regimes, tax increasesand reduction in public sectororganisations’ running costsincluding cuts to public sectoremployment.

Consumer indebtedness -Consumers may borrow to meet

current needs using, for example,loans and credit cards.

Consumption expenditure -Expenditure by domestichouseholds on goods and servicesfor final personal use.

Corporate sector - Businessesowned by private shareholders.

Domestic demand - Total demandfor goods and services within aparticular economy during aspecific time period, includingspending on imports.

Economic activity - The amount of buying and selling that goes on in the economy over a givenperiod of time.

Eurostat – European Office forStatistics

Emerging economies/markets -Economies with low to middlelevels of gross domestic productper capita which are undertakingeconomic development to achieverapid industrialisation and opentheir markets to the globaleconomy.

Fiscal Policy - The use ofgovernment expenditure andtaxation to influence theperformance of the economy.

GDP, Gross Domestic Product -The market value of all final goodsand services produced within acountry in a given period of time.

Government expenditure -The value of goods and servicesbought by the government forcurrent consumption andinvestment.

Government indebtedness -Governments may borrow to meet temporary needs as whenestimated revenue is exceeded by estimated expenditure.

GVA, Gross Value Added –The contribution to the economyof each individual producer,industry or sector, measuring the

50

GLOSSARY 05


difference between the value ofgoods and services produced andthe cost of raw materials andother inputs which are used up inproduction.

Household disposable income -The amount of money leftavailable to households forspending or saving, aftertaxes/social contributions,mortgage payments and provisionfor pensions.

Industrial production - The output of the industrial sectorof the economy.

Industrial Sector - Includes thoseeconomic sectors that create afinished, tangible product.

ILO - International LabourOrganisation

Inflation - A rise in the generallevel of prices of goods andservices in an economy over aperiod of time, therefore anincrease in inflation results in aunit of currency buying fewergoods and services.

Monetary Policy - The use ofthe money supply to promoteeconomic growth and stability,includes Quantitative Easing.

NUTS – Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics. A hierarchical classification of administrative boundariesdeveloped by Eurostat.

Output - The amount of goods andservices produced by a firm,industry or country over aspecified period of time.

Peak to trough - The stage of thebusiness cycle from the end of aperiod of growth (peak) intodeclining activity and contractionuntil it hits its lowest point(trough).

Private sector - The part of thenational economy that is notowned by the state.

Private sector demand -The amount of goods and servicesdemanded by private sectororganisations at a given point intime.

Productivity - A measure of howwell an economy uses resourcesto produce output and is afundamental determinant ofinternational competitiveness.

Public sector - The part of thenational economy that isgovernment owned. Theproduction, delivery and allocationof goods and services by and forthe government or citizens.

Public sector demand -The amount of goods and servicesdemanded by public sectororganisations at a given point intime.

Stimulus policies - Monetary orFiscal policy to stimulate theeconomy.

Stock - The supply of rawmaterials, work in progress andfinished goods that are kept onhand for sale to customers bybusinesses.

Stock rebuilding - Production ofmore finished goods than neededto satisfy customer orders bybusinesses so as to build up stocklevels.

Trade performance - The value ofa country’s exports and imports ofgoods and services over aspecified period of time.

Unemployment – InternationalLabour Organisation definition ofunemployment – people withoutjobs who have been activelylooking for work over the past fourweeks.

Wider Area – Wider functionaleconomy including Warrington,Flintshire and Wrexham as well asthe City Region.

51

Established by private sectorcompanies in 1992, TMP has grown tobecome Liverpool City Region’s leadingmembership organisation. In February2012 the Shadow Board of the LiverpoolCity Region Local EnterprisePartnership (LEP) decided to establishthe LEP through the existing corporateentity of TMP, subject to theMembership’s approval.

TMP represents a unique alliance ofover 550 businesses and organisationscommitted to the economic growth ofthe City Region.

TMP members include majorcompanies such as Ernst & Young,ScotishPower plc, Peel Group and ShopDirect Group alongside innovative SMEsincluding Mando Group, AmionConsulting and Merepark.

The organisation, its Members andPartners seek to stimulate businessgrowth and job creation by drivingforward the key business sectors of theeconomy - SuperPort; Low CarbonEconomy; Visitor Economy andKnowledge Economy. It has developed,with Partners, a Panel and Committeefor each of these sectors, comprisingleading private sector businesses, todrive forward economic growthpotential.

To find out more email:[email protected]

Environment: Printed on 100% recycledmaterial manufactured from post-consumer wastepaper.

Disclaimer: The material presented inLiverpool City Region Economic Review2012 is, to the best of TMP’s knowledge,current and accurate at the time ofprinting. Data quoted within thedocument has been produced by TMP.TMP cannot guarantee the accuracy orcompleteness of this information and isnot liable for any errors, omissions orinaccuracies. Use of this material bythird parties is at their own risk.

Economic Review 2012 Image credits:Jaguar Land Rover; Peel Land &Property; ACC Liverpool, SiemensPress Pictures / Siemens AG,Munich/Berlin, Knight Architects.

All data contained in the EconomicReview 2012 is available on request. Contact: [email protected] 0151 227 2727.


Supported by

The Mersey Partnership12 Princes ParadeLiverpoolL3 1BG

Tel: +44 (0) 151 227 2727Fax: +44 (0) 151 227 2325Email: [email protected]


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