the midwest solar market: hot or not?
DESCRIPTION
Is solar poised to grow in the Midwest? This presentation to the Midwest Solar Expo by Institute for Local Self-Reliance Director of Democratic Energy John Farrell explains the enormous potential for solar, the favorable economics, and the opportunities for local action to make solar a reality.TRANSCRIPT
H O T O R N O T ?T H E M I D W E S T S O L A R M A R K E T
John Farrell Director of Democratic Energy
May 16, 2014
Credit: Flickr user blmiers2
Big picture: For years, solar was about remote power installations
and the environment
Now solar is about the economics
POTENTIAL PERCENT OF ELECTRICITY FROM
LOCAL ROOFTOP SOLAR
50% or more 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 0 to 10%
20%
42%
31%
18%
23%
24%
19%
19%28%
23%
24%
24%
26%
21%
12%
11%52%51%
49%
22%
23%
21%23%
19%
14%
38%41%
26%
35%
28%
19%
25%
21%
25%
24%
20%
22%
19%
23%
17%
23%
18% 20%
15%
24%
21%18%
Residential and Commercial roofs
L O C A L S O L A R P O T E N T I A L
21%
23%
49%
S AV I N G W I T H S O L A R
0¢
3¢
6¢
9¢
12¢
15¢
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
IA IL IN KS MI MN MO
ND NE OH SD WI Average
R I S I N G R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S(Residential, ¢ per kilowatt-hour)
0¢
3¢
6¢
9¢
12¢
15¢
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Average of Midwest states
R I S I N G R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S
4.7% per year
3% per year
(Residential, ¢ per kilowatt-hour)
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Average of Midwest states
R I S I N G R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S
4.7% per year
3% per year
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Average of Midwest states
R I S I N G R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S
4.7% per year
0¢
10¢
20¢
30¢
40¢
50¢
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Average Midwest residential retail electricity price
Levelized cost of solar electricity (Minneapolis)
Cost of solar with ITC
S O L A R PA R I T Y I S C O M I N G
4.7% per year
Subsidized Solar Parity
Unsubsidized Solar Parity
(¢ per kilowatt-hour)
POTENTIAL PERCENT OF ELECTRICITY FROM
LOCAL ROOFTOP SOLAR
50% or more 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 0 to 10%
20%
42%
31%
18%
23%
24%
19%
19%28%
23%
24%
24%
26%
21%
12%
11%52%51%
49%
22%
23%
21%23%
19%
14%
38%41%
26%
35%
28%
19%
25%
21%
25%
24%
20%
22%
19%
23%
17%
23%
18% 20%
15%
24%
21%18%
Residential and Commercial roofs
L O C A L S O L A R P O T E N T I A L
21%
23%
49%
8500
590
750 30,000
16,000
7200
11,000
1800
990
360012,000
780
7000
8200
510011,000
190026,0002400
7300
5100
360
26001100
1200
800
14004800
1800
32,000
5000
580
970
2300
4100
4400
2900
7200
6800
2800
7100
11,000
11,000
550010,000
12,000
20
1140700
4000
Residential and Commercial roofs
(Megawatts)S O L A R PA R I T Y AT PA R I T Y ( 2 0 2 2 )
PERCENT OF SALES
1-5%
5-10%
10% or more
30,000
6 7 G I G AWAT T S
See ILSR’s Rooftop Revolution reports for data
VA L U E
$0.00
$0.03
$0.06
$0.08
$0.11
$0.14
Brown energy replacement
Avoided transmission losses
Environmental
Avoided transmission access
Local capacity value
L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E(per kilowatt-hour)
Solar is valuable!
14.7¢
L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E(economy)
Not local
0 25 50 75 100
very negative negative neutral positive very positive
L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E(political)
Attitude towards increased use of local wind energy
Not local
0 25 50 75 100
very negative negative neutral positive very positive
-44%
+33%
+77% net approvalLocal
Ownership
L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E(political)
Other 54%
Individuals & Farmers 46%
Germany’s Energy Revolution Still People Powered
29,000 MW
27% renewable
G R E AT O P P O R T U N I T Y
I N S TA L L E D S O L A R C A PA C I T Y ( M W )
1821
4839
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
158
20
Sources: SEIA & ACORE
0 . 3 G I G AWAT T S
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax benefit
N . D A K O TA
1 0 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
1821
4839
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
158
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price
S . D A K O TA
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax benefit
Source: DSIRE
1821
4839
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
158
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price
N E B R A S K A
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax benefit
2 5 K W
Source: DSIRE
1821
4839
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
158
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price
K A N S A S
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax benefit
2 5 / 2 0 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
1821
4839
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
158
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price
I O W A
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax benefit
5 0 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
1821
4839
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
158
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price
W I S C O N S I N
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax
2 0 / 1 0 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
1821
4839
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
158
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price
M I C H I G A N
Solar standard (RPS)*
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax
1 5 0 K W
*triple credit under RPS
Source: DSIRE
1821
4839
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
158
20
I N D I A N A
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax
1 0 0 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
1821
4839
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
158
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price
O H I O
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax
U N L . K W
Source: DSIRE
1821
4839
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
158
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price
I L L I N O I S
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax
4 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
1821
4839
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
158
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price
M I S S O U R I
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax
1 0 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
1821
4839
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
158
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price
?
M I N N E S O TA
Solar standard (RPS)
Community solar
Value of solar
Net metering
State tax/cash incentives
Utility cash incentives
Property/sales tax
1 0 0 0 K W
Source: DSIRE
1821
4839
88
<1
<1
<1
<1
158
20
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
25¢
Residential retail electricity price
Value of solar
Solar price with ITC
Solar price
L O C A L P O L I C Y
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Installed Cost per Watt
$6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00
13%15%
19%
26%
39%
5% 6%8%
12%
22%
L O C A L P E R M I T T I N G
Data from The Impact of City-level Permitting Processes on Residential Photovoltaic Installation Prices and Development Times (LBNL, 2013)
...the savings
Approx. year for residential installation* 2013 2017 2023
*From ILSR’s Rooftop Revolution reports: http://www.ilsr.org/rooftop-revolution/
As the cost of solar falls...
from
permitting ri
se
streamlined
L O C A L P E R M I T T I N G
Leading Cities
Vote Solar: Project Permit
Active CCAs No active CCAs
C O M M U N I T Y C H O I C E
F R A N C H I S E
LEVERAGEUtilitiesCities
L O C A L P O W E R
S A N TA F EB O U L D E R
2x Coal
T H A N K Y O U !
21%
http://www.ilsr.org/rooftop-revolution/