the missing piece: quantifying non-completion

8/13/2019 The Missing Piece: Quantifying Non-Completion

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The Missing PieceQuantifying Non-CompletionPathways to Success

Presented by Kathy Booth | October 9, 2013



What’s Completion Got toDo with It?

In a study published in 2010 in the journal Researchin Higher Education , Peter Riley Bahr followedcourse-taking patterns over seven years for 165,921

first-time California community college students whoenrolled in at least one credit or noncredit course infall 2001.

He found that 30% of students:

o Took an average of one course a year for two years

o Attempted an average of 7 credits

o Passed their courses at a rate of 94%, but completed acredential or transferred at a rate of only 9%

… the skills -builders

What Student Course-Taking Behaviors Can Tell Us

Completion-Likely

38%

Completion-Unlikely

28%CTE3%

Skills-Builder

30%

Noncredit1%

First-Time Student Types, Based on Head Count



Identifying a Skills-Builder Cohort

Working with WestEd, Bahr conducted further analyses ofcourse-taking patterns among the first-time students whoentered the CCC system between fall 2002 and summer

2006. He focused his next phase of research on low-unitskills-builder students who:

o Do not attain a degree, community collegecertificate, or transfer to a four-year college withinsix years of entering college

o Enroll for no more than four semesters

o Carry a mean course load of six or fewer credits

o Achieve a unit success rate of at least 70%

One in seven (14%) students met this definition .



Identifying Skills-Builder

Course ClustersUsing the California Community College Taxonomy ofPrograms (TOP), Bahr examined:

o

the percentage of skills-builder students who tookfor-credit courses in the 24 broad fields of studydefined in the TOP

o whether these students continued in the samefield during successive semesters

o the percentage of courses taken in each of the 220TOP subfields by skills-builders who began in eachof the broad fields in which these students primarilyare found



Documenting

Wage OutcomesBahr linked quarterly earnings data from the Californiaunemployment insurance database with credits earned ineach of the 220 TOP subfields for first-time students who:

o were successful in their coursework but did notcomplete a credential or transfer

o were between the ages of 20 and 50 at entry

o had at least one quarterly earnings record prior tocollege entry and after college entry

This group included both skills-builders and other highlysuccessful non-completers.



Findings:

Student AttributesSkills-builder students had the following characteristics:

o enrolled for an average of 1.7 semesters and

attempted an average of 5 creditso three-fifths stayed just one semester, one-fifth

continued for two semesters, and one-fifth continuedfor up to four semesters

o achieved a unit success rate of 98%, with 71%earning a GPA of 3.0 or higher (compared to 28% forother first-time students) .

o average age at college entry was 37 years , 51%male, 47% white, 33% Latino, 7% African American,and 7% Asian American



Findings:

Fields of StudyAbout three-fifths (58%) of skills-builder studentsenrolled initially in fields that are primarily CTE:

o

engineering and industrial technologies (19%)o business and management (13%)

o public and protective services (8%)

o family and consumer sciences (7%)

o information technology (5%)

The remainder pursued fields like interdisciplinary studies,education, fine and applied arts, and humanities.



Findings:

Fields of Study

0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

Engineering and Industrial TechnologiesBusiness and Management

Interdisciplinary StudiesEducation

Public and Protective ServicesFine and Applied Arts

Family and Consumer SciencesHumanities

Information TechnologyMathematics

Social SciencesHealth

Foreign LanguagePsychology

Agriculture and Natural ResourcesMedia and Communications

Biological SciencesPhysical Sciences

Environmental Sciences and TechnologiesCommercial Services

LawArchitecture and Related Technologies

Library ScienceMilitary Studies

Percentage of Skills-Builders Who Enrolled in Coursework

F i e

l d o

f S t u

d y

Percentage of skills-builder students who enrolled in each of 24 fields of study in their first semester



Findings:

Persistence within a FieldMost CTE skills-builder students pursued courseswithin the same field of study if they continued for morethan one semester:

o engineering and industrial technologies (90%)

o public and protective services (79%)

Some students appeared to be pursuing focused cross-disciplinary studies:

o in information technology, 45% of those whocontinued into a second semester enrolled ininformation technology and 17% enrolled inbusiness and management



Findings:

Dominant SubfieldsWithin the broader CTE fields, there were dominantsubfields , such as:

o

family and consumer sciences – 65% childhooddevelopment and early childhood education

o public and protective services – 55% administrationof justice

o business and management – 30% real estate

o information technology – 22% each for computerinformation systems and general IT

o engineering and industrial technologies –17%construction crafts, 15% manufacturing andindustrial technology



Findings:

Labor Market Outcomes16 of the 24 non-completing course clusters yieldedsignificant earnings gains for students. Many studentswho completed six credits boosted earnings between 5-

10%, such as:o administration of justice – 9% earnings gain

o electronics and electric technology – 8% earningsgain

o computer infrastructure and support – 5% earningsgain

o child development & early care education – 3%earnings gain



Findings:

Labor Market OutcomesPercent quarterly earnings increase for students who successfully completed courseworkin selected subfields but did not secure a credential or transfer to a four-year college

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Water and Wastewater Technology

Administration of Justice

Electronics and Electric Technology

Manufacturing and Industrial Tech

Fire Technology

Computer Infrastructure and Support

Civil and Construction Management Tech

General Information Technology

Increase in Quarterly Earnings

6 credits9 credits12 credits



More Data on Skills-Builders:

CTE Employment Outcomes Survey36% of respondents to the CTE Employment OutcomesSurvey were non-completing, non-transfer students

•

had earned an average of 32 units• 27% came to community college with a bachelor’s degree • 57% attended more than one community college

• 41% had attained an industry certificate or journey-levelstatus within a year of stopping coursework

• 35% of job-seekers had found a job by the time theyfinished school and another 27% found jobs within 3months

• 22% average wage gain after taking courses



More Data on Skills-Builders:

Chancellor’s Office Analysis Examined outcomes for students reporting “advance incurrent job/career” as their college application goal (4% ofenrollments in fall 2010)

• 62% took CTE courses• 33% had previously attended a four-year institution• 26% had earned some type of award in the California

community college system

Significant one year wage gains in particular fields:

• Dental Laboratory Technician - $44,887• Plastics and Composites - $35,038• Respiratory Care/Therapy - $27,462



Defining Success

Limiting the definition to success tocompletion misses a significant

number of students who areimproving their standard of living bytaking community college courses

D i s c u s s i o n : At your college, have career and technicaleducation offerings been impacted by the fundingcrisis or the focus on completion outcomes? Whattypes of information would help inform decision-making about the value of these offerings?



Measuring Success

Unemployment insurance wage data are veryhelpful, but not sufficient to capture all aspects ofemployment student outcomes, such as

o earnings from self-employment, federal governmentemployment, military service, informal jobs paid in cash,employment in other states, and several other sources (i.e.,real estate and construction crafts)

o how many jobs an individual held at any point in time orwhether employment was part-time or full-time

o impact of course-taking on job retention (i.e., autotechnology)

o external certifications or licenses (i.e., early childhoodeducation)

D i s c u s s i o n : Is your college collecting additional non-completion success metrics locally, like industry

certifications and job retention data?



Improving Success

Given that significant numbers of students are pursuingshort-term course-taking, with a positive impact inmany CTE fields, colleges should work to improvethese pathways

o Learn from examples like petroleum technology atTaft College – completing one credit led to anaverage 11% gain in quarterly earnings, and 12credits yielded an average increase of 143%

o Identify common exit points to guide modularizationor redesign

Discussion : Should certificate programs be altered sothat they end at the point where most students attaina living-wage job or an external certification?



What Can You Do?

1) Download an inquiry guide and fact sheet on thisresearch and launch conversations on your own campus!

www.learningworksca.org/briefs/practitioners-briefwww.wested.org/project/quantifying-non-completion-pathways-to-success

2) Contact Kathy Booth to discuss your thoughts abouthow this research can be shared and how we can gatherbetter information on skills-builder students([email protected] )

3) Watch for a brief in January that describes skills-builderpathways in ten California community colleges

http://www.wested.org/project/quantifying-non-completion-pathways-to-success


mailto:[email protected]

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the missing piece: quantifying non-completion

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