The M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en H

ors

eshoe M

od

el

Jesse C

ole

man

June 2

4, 2009

Univ

ers

ity o

f T

oro

nto

A W

ork

shop o

n T

ravel D

em

and M

odelli

ng in the G

TH

A

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

Agenda

•O

verv

iew

of M

odelli

ng

Syste

m

–M

ode

l hie

rarc

hy

–M

ode

l fe

atu

res

–M

ode

l pro

cess

•A

dva

ncin

g t

he S

tate

of P

ractice

–C

om

pre

he

nsiv

e la

nd u

se f

ore

casting

–T

our-

base

d a

ppro

ach

–Lan

d u

se-t

ransp

ort

atio

n lin

k

•Q

uestions

June 2

4, 2009

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

2

Overv

iew

of M

odelli

ng

Syste

m

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

The G

GH

Model

•D

evelo

ped in 2

008 for

the M

inis

try o

f T

ransport

ation, O

nta

rio

•C

om

pre

hensiv

e “

best pra

ctices”

regio

nal tr

ansport

ation m

odel

for

a larg

e r

apid

ly g

row

ing “

mega-r

egio

n”

•D

esig

ned to b

e s

ensitiv

e to P

rovin

cia

l G

row

th P

lan o

bje

ctives

pro

moting s

usta

inable

tra

nsport

ation a

nd r

educed u

rban s

pra

wl:

–B

ala

nced, effic

ient tr

ansport

ation s

yste

m

–E

ncoura

ge tra

nsit, w

alk

and c

ycle

modes

–In

tegra

ted tra

nsport

ation-land u

se p

lannin

g

–P

rote

ct environm

ent

•A

pplic

ations to D

ate

:

–M

etr

olin

x “

Big

Move”

–M

etr

olin

x B

enefit C

ases

–M

TO

EA

s

June 2

4, 2009

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

4

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

Model H

iera

rchy

Reg

ion

al

Mo

del

Str

ate

gic

, m

ulti-

modal, 4

-sta

ge m

odel,

coverin

g e

ntire

urb

an a

rea

Su

b-a

rea /

Co

rrid

or

Mo

del

Deta

iled,

multi-

modal n

etw

ork

assig

nm

ent

model,

coveri

ng t

he s

tud

y a

rea

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

June 2

4, 2009

•T

he G

GH

Model is

a r

egio

nal fo

recasting tool, w

here

does this

fit w

ithin

a m

odelli

ng h

iera

rchy?

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

Tw

o L

evels

of M

odels

Str

ate

gic

Reg

ion

al

Mo

del

Su

b-a

rea /

Co

rrid

or

Mo

del

Covera

ge

Entire

metr

opo

litan a

rea,

addre

ssin

g t

ravel w

ithin

and t

hro

ugh t

he r

egio

n

Sub-a

rea/c

orr

idor,

addre

ssin

g

travel w

ithin

an

d t

hro

ugh t

he

corr

idor

/ sub-a

rea

Applic

ation

Long-r

ang

e r

egio

nal lan

d

use a

nd t

ransp

ort

ation

pla

nnin

g

Evalu

ation o

f a

ltern

atives w

ith

in

the c

orr

idor

to s

upport

pro

ject

appra

isal a

nd E

As

Modelli

ng

Tool

Macro

mode

llin

g s

oft

ware

like E

mm

e

Could

be in t

he

sam

e m

acro

model p

latf

orm

, or

an o

pera

tio

nal

(meso/m

icro

) m

odel p

latf

orm

such a

s D

YN

AM

EQ

, V

ISS

IM o

r

Madituc f

or

transit.

June 2

4, 2009

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

7

GG

H M

odel A

ppro

ach

•F

our-

sta

ge m

odelli

ng p

rocess tim

e-t

este

d a

nd s

till

rele

vant to

day, but dem

ands o

n m

odels

have g

row

n

•T

raditio

nal to

ols

, origin

ally

develo

ped in the 1

950s for

hig

hw

ay p

lannin

g, have typic

ally

not fo

cused o

n

susta

inable

tra

nsport

ation

•T

ransit/w

alk

/cycle

modes d

o n

ot have the fre

edom

of th

e

private

auto

mobile

pre

senting c

halle

nges:

–C

om

ple

x trip-m

akin

g

–Land u

se, household

str

uctu

re, em

plo

ym

ent sta

tus,

dem

ogra

phic

s s

trong influence tra

nsit u

se

–la

rgely

tra

nsit c

aptives in s

uburb

an a

reas

•T

he d

eck c

an b

e s

tacked a

gain

st sensitiv

ity to tra

nsit in

traditio

nal fo

ur

sta

ge m

odels

Th

e G

GH

Mo

del is

bu

ilt

to m

ore

accu

rate

ly c

ap

ture

th

e

facto

rs t

hat

imp

act

the u

se o

f su

sta

inab

le m

od

es

June 2

4, 2009

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

Model F

eatu

res

June 2

4, 2009

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

8

•T

raditio

nal F

our-

sta

ge m

odel w

ith s

pecia

l fe

atu

res

•M

odel A

rea

–E

ntire

GG

H c

overe

d b

y o

ver

3000 tra

ffic

zones

•D

esig

ned to b

e s

ensitiv

e to G

row

th P

lan a

nd o

ther

polic

y

initia

tives

Lan

d U

se D

ata

(Per

sons

/Wor

kers

by

Typ

e, H

H

stru

ctur

e, E

mpl

oym

ent,

etc.

)

Au

to O

wn

ersh

ip

Num

ber

of c

ars

by h

oush

old

type

Tri

p D

istr

ibu

tio

n

Dou

bly

cons

trai

ned

Tri

p G

ener

atio

n

Pea

k pe

riod

H-W

-H to

urs

and

jour

neys

Mo

de

Ch

oic

e

Logs

um

Tri

p A

ssig

nm

ent

Lan

d U

se D

ata

(Per

sons

/Wor

kers

by

Typ

e, H

H

stru

ctur

e, E

mpl

oym

ent,

etc.

)

Au

to O

wn

ersh

ip

Num

ber

of c

ars

by h

oush

old

type

Tri

p D

istr

ibu

tio

n

Dou

bly

cons

trai

ned

Tri

p G

ener

atio

n

Pea

k pe

riod

H-W

-H to

urs

and

jour

neys

Mo

de

Ch

oic

e

Logs

um

Tri

p A

ssig

nm

ent

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

9

GG

H M

odel O

verv

iew

Ten

tri

p p

urp

oses:

•W

ork

(4):

gene

ral offic

e, m

anufa

ctu

ring,

pro

fessio

nal, r

eta

il/sale

s/s

erv

ices

•S

chool (3

): p

ost-

secondary

, secondary

, ele

menta

ry

•S

hoppin

g

•O

ther

•N

on-h

om

e b

ased

Ten

mo

des/s

ub

-mo

des:

Au

to D

rive

Acc

Sta

1

Tra

nsi

t

Wal

k

Acc

ess

Wal

k / B

icyc

leT

ran

sit

Au

to P

asse

ng

er

Tra

nsi

t

Au

to

Acc

ess

Co

mm

ute

r

Rai

l

Au

to A

cces

s

Co

mm

ute

r

Rai

l

Wal

k A

cces

s

Acc

Sta

NA

ccS

ta1

Acc

Sta

N

. . .

. . .

Au

to D

rive

Acc

Sta

1

Tra

nsi

t

Wal

k

Acc

ess

Wal

k / B

icyc

leT

ran

sit

Au

to P

asse

ng

er

Tra

nsi

t

Au

to

Acc

ess

Co

mm

ute

r

Rai

l

Au

to A

cces

s

Co

mm

ute

r

Rai

l

Wal

k A

cces

s

Acc

Sta

NA

ccS

ta1

Acc

Sta

N

. . .

. . .

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

June 2

4, 2009

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

Model P

rocess

Inp

uts

•C

alib

rate

d to 2

001 T

TS

Surv

ey

•Land U

se inputs

based o

n 2

001 c

ensus

Tri

p G

en

era

tio

n &

Au

to O

wn

ers

hip

:

•A

uto

ow

ners

hip

based o

n o

rdere

d logit m

odel, b

ased o

n

household

type, com

ponent pers

on types (

i.e.

work

er/

stu

dent/non-w

ork

er

types),

neig

hbourh

ood featu

res,

pro

xim

ity to r

apid

tra

nsit

•D

eta

iled c

ross-c

lassific

ation to o

bta

in trip r

ate

s b

y p

urp

ose w

ith

segm

enta

tions b

y h

ousehold

str

uctu

re, pers

on type, auto

ow

ners

hip

; als

o r

egre

ssio

n e

quations

June 2

4, 2009

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

10

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

Model P

rocess <

cont>

Tri

p D

istr

ibu

tio

n

•W

ork

Journ

eys

–G

ravity m

od

el segm

ente

d b

y o

ccupation (

4 c

ate

gori

es)

–Im

pedance f

rom

mode c

hoic

e m

odel “lo

g-s

um

”

•P

ost-

Second

ary

Scho

ol

–G

ravity m

od

el usin

g s

am

e log

-sum

term

as the w

ork

mod

el

•E

lem

enta

ry &

Second

ary

Sch

ool

–S

ingly

-constr

ain

ed lo

git d

estin

ation c

ho

ice m

odels

•O

ther,

Shoppin

g &

Non-H

om

e-B

ased

–T

rip-b

ased a

pp

roach,

usin

g a

fra

tar

dis

trib

ution

June 2

4, 2009

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

11

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

Model P

rocess <

cont>

Mo

de C

ho

ice

•H

om

e-b

ased w

ork

and s

cho

ol

–M

odels

the h

om

e-d

estin

ation

-hom

e t

our

as a

join

t m

od

e c

hoic

e

acro

ss t

he t

wo t

ime p

erio

ds,

usin

g s

erv

ice le

vels

for

the t

wo

peak

perio

ds in a

n in

tegra

ted m

an

ner

–N

este

d lo

git m

odel w

ith 8

mo

des f

or

wo

rk a

nd p

ost-

seco

ndary

school p

urp

ose

s (

low

er

transit n

est)

–P

ark

-and-r

ide s

tation c

hoic

e m

odel (l

ogit)

•O

ther

trip

purp

oses

–m

odele

d w

ith m

ultin

om

ial lo

git m

odels

•R

ang

e o

f varia

ble

s t

o m

axim

ize e

xpla

nato

ry p

ow

er

and s

en

sitiv

ity

–le

vel-

of-

serv

ice

, cost,

spatial/la

nd-u

se,

vehic

le o

wners

hip

an

d

dem

ogra

ph

ic v

ariab

les

Tri

p A

ssig

nm

en

t

•E

MM

E u

ser

eq

uili

brium

auto

and t

ransit a

ssig

nm

ents

for

the a

.m.

and

p.m

. peak p

eri

ods

June 2

4, 2009

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

12

Adva

ncin

g t

he S

tate

of P

ractice in

the G

TH

A

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

Import

ant A

dvances

1.

Com

pre

he

nsiv

e la

nd u

se f

ore

casting

2.

Tour-

base

d a

ppro

ach

3.

Exp

licit lan

d u

se –

transport

atio

n inte

raction

s

June 2

4, 2009

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

14

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

1.C

om

pre

hensiv

e L

and U

se F

ore

casting

•Land u

se c

oho

rt m

odel pre

dic

ts c

hanges b

ased o

n a

seri

es o

f

assum

ptio

ns o

n t

he a

gein

g o

f th

e p

opula

tion

, im

mig

ration r

ate

s,

chang

ing industr

y m

ix a

nd lab

our

forc

e p

rod

uctivity.

•R

eflects

futu

re t

rends:

–A

ge d

istr

ibutio

n o

f th

e p

opula

tion w

ill c

han

ge s

ignific

antly

–D

welli

ng p

refe

rences c

ha

nges b

y a

ge o

f hou

sehold

–G

row

th P

lan im

posed s

hifts

in s

tructu

ral ty

pes p

erm

itte

d

–E

mplo

ye

d b

y industr

y m

ix w

ill c

hange s

ignific

antly

•M

odels

the o

rganic

dem

ogra

phic

chan

ge t

hat

occurs

over

a 3

0 y

ear

perio

d.

•Is

a s

ignific

ant

advance o

ver

more

sim

plis

tic land u

se p

roje

ctions t

hat

have b

een u

se

d in t

he p

ast.

June 2

4, 2009

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

15

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

AP

A N

ationa

l P

lannin

g C

onfe

rence, A

pril 28, 2009

16

Model P

roje

ctions R

eflect C

hangin

g

Socio

econom

ic a

nd D

em

ogra

phic

Conditio

ns

02

00

,00

04

00

,00

06

00

,00

08

00

,00

01,0

00

,00

01,2

00

,00

01,4

00

,00

0

1, 0

1, 1

1, 2

+

2, 0

2, 1

2, 2

+

oth

er

0

10

0,0

00

20

0,0

00

30

0,0

00

40

0,0

00

50

0,0

00

60

0,0

00

70

0,0

00

80

0,0

00

90

0,0

00

00

-

04

05

-

09

10

-

14

15

-

19

20

-

24

25

-

29

30

-

34

35

-

39

40

-

44

45

-

49

50

-

54

55

-

59

60

-

64

65

-

69

70

-

74

75

-

79

80

-

84

85

+

Ch

an

gin

g H

ou

seh

old

Str

uc

ture

(2001 -

2031

)

Ch

an

gin

g A

ge

Str

uctu

re (

2001 t

o 2

031)

Adults, children

Tra

vel affecte

d b

y:

•H

ousehold

str

uctu

re

•A

ge

•In

com

e

•T

ype o

f jo

b

Influences:

•H

ousin

g type

•A

uto

ow

ners

hip

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

17

Gro

wth

Pla

n Initia

tives R

eflecte

d in

Land U

se/H

ousin

g T

ype M

odel In

puts

0

10

0,0

00

20

0,0

00

30

0,0

00

40

0,0

00

50

0,0

00

60

0,0

00

Sin

gle

Att

ach

ed a

nd

Lo

w R

ise

Ap

art

me

nts

Apa

rtm

en

ts 5

Sto

reys

+

0

10

0,0

00

20

0,0

00

30

0,0

00

40

0,0

00

50

0,0

00

60

0,0

00

70

0,0

00

80

0,0

00

Sin

gle

Atta

che

d a

nd

Low

Ris

e A

pa

rtm

ents

Apa

rtm

en

ts 5

Sto

reys

+

Typ

e o

f H

ou

sin

g,

2001 a

nd

2031

To

ron

toR

est

of

Gre

ate

r T

oro

nto

Are

a

Sin

gle

Att

ach

ed

&L

ow

-ris

e A

pt

Ap

art

men

tS

ing

le

Att

ach

ed

&L

ow

-ris

e A

pt

Ap

art

men

t

Type o

f housin

g d

efined for

each a

rea, re

flecting

household

str

uctu

re, in

com

e, etc

., c

onsis

tent w

ith the

Gro

wth

Pla

n a

nd m

unic

ipal pla

ns

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

June 2

4, 2009

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

18

Model P

roje

ctions R

eflect C

hangin

g E

mplo

ym

ent

0

20

0,0

00

40

0,0

00

60

0,0

00

80

0,0

00

1,0

00

,00

0

1,2

00

,00

0

19

76

19

81

19

86

19

91

19

96

20

01

20

06

20

11

20

16

20

21

20

26

20

31

0

20

0,0

00

40

0,0

00

60

0,0

00

80

0,0

00

1,0

00

,00

0

1,2

00

,00

0

19

76

19

81

19

86

19

91

19

96

20

01

20

06

20

11

20

16

20

21

20

26

20

31

Man

ufa

ctu

rin

g

Bu

sin

ess a

nd

Bu

ild

ing

Su

pp

ort

Serv

ices

Pro

fessio

nal, S

cie

nti

fic a

nd

Tech

nic

al S

erv

ices

Oth

er

Pri

mary

Ag

ricu

ltu

re

1976 t

o 2

03

1 O

nta

rio

Em

plo

ym

en

t B

ase

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

June 2

4, 2009

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

2.T

our-

Based A

ppro

ach

Wh

at

is a

To

ur

?

•A

tour

is a

com

ple

te m

ovem

ent

leavin

g h

om

e a

nd r

etu

rnin

g h

om

e

again

.

Wh

y T

ou

r B

ased

?

•F

ocuses a

na

lysis

on t

he p

rim

ary

movem

ent

that

genera

tes t

he t

rip (

i.e.

wo

rk o

r schoo

l),

while

filt

eri

ng o

ut

the

nois

e o

f re

latively

unim

port

an

t sto

ps

within

the journ

ey

•A

s a

result,

pro

vid

es s

ignific

an

tly

more

expla

nato

ry p

ow

er

rela

tive t

o

conventiona

l tr

ip-b

ase

d m

ode

ls

•N

eed t

o m

od

el both

a.m

. and p

.m.

peak p

eri

ods

•C

an b

e a

pre

curs

or

to m

ore

com

ple

x

activity-b

ase

d m

odel syste

ms

June 2

4, 2009

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

19

HO

ME

WO

RK

SH

OP

HO

ME

-WO

RK

TO

UR

HO

ME

WO

RK

HO

ME

-WO

RK

JO

UR

NE

Y

HO

ME

WO

RK

SH

OP

WO

RK

-HO

ME

JO

UR

NE

Y

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

20

3.L

and U

se –

Tra

nsport

ation Inte

gra

tion

Ch

allen

ge:

•H

ow

to m

odel sig

nific

ant in

cre

ases in tra

nsit

use in r

apid

ly g

row

ing s

uburb

an a

reas a

nd

transfo

rm the r

egio

n?

Resp

on

se:

•F

ocused “

Gro

wth

Pla

n-s

ensitiv

e”

tools

with

deta

iled segm

enta

tions to c

aptu

re k

ey

rela

tionship

s a

nd m

ark

ets

:

–T

ravel by d

iffe

rent ty

pes o

f people

–R

ela

tionship

s w

ith land u

se, urb

an form

, density

–C

aptu

re tra

vel experience, not ju

st cost

and tra

vel tim

e

0%5%10%

15%

20%

25%

Tor

onto

GT

HA

Reg

ions

HO

US

EH

OL

D L

OC

AT

ION

TRANSIT MODE SHARE

Lo

w M

od

e S

hare

in

Hig

h

Gro

wth

Su

bu

rban

Are

as

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

June 2

4, 2009

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

Bru

ce M

ori

, D

irecto

r

IBI G

rou

p21

Connection b

etw

een L

and U

se T

ype a

nd N

etw

ork

Accessib

ility

Lan

d U

se A

rea T

yp

e C

las

sif

icati

on

:

Centr

al B

usin

ess D

istr

ict

>200 p

eop

le+

jobs/h

a

Urb

an -

Hig

h D

ensity

120 –

20

0

Urb

an –

Lo

w D

ensity

80 –

120

Suburb

an –

Hig

h D

ensity

50 –

80

Suburb

an –

Lo

w D

ensity

10 -

50

Rura

l0 -

10

CB

D

Su

bu

rban

•Land U

se A

rea T

ype u

sed to h

elp

define

transport

ation n

etw

ork

attribute

s:

–W

alk

tim

e to tra

nsit

–W

alk

/cycle

chara

cte

ristics

–A

rterial ro

ad c

hara

cte

ristics

–T

ransit r

oute

chara

cte

ristics

•E

xam

ple

: w

alk

tim

e to tra

nsit is 3

0%

gre

ate

r in

suburb

an v

ers

us u

rban a

reas

June 2

4, 2009

Th

e M

TO

Gre

ate

r G

old

en

Ho

rsesh

oe M

od

el

22

Sum

mary

•G

GH

Model is

a s

tate

of pra

ctice fore

casting m

odel fo

r th

e G

TH

A

•H

as s

evera

l im

port

ant fe

atu

res a

llow

ing it to

have

incre

ased s

ensitiv

ity to s

usta

inable

modes o

f tr

avel as

well

as to the im

pacts

of la

nd u

se c

hanges a

s p

rescribed

under

the G

row

th P

lan

–D

eta

iled land u

se fore

casting

–T

our-

based a

ppro

ach

–Land u

se –

transport

ation lin

k

Qu

esti

on

s?

IBI G

rou

p

Jesse C

ole

man

June 2

4, 2009