the mysterious case of the disappearing crime
TRANSCRIPT
The mysterious case of the
disappearing crime
Professor Susan McVie,
School of Law
University of Edinburgh
RSS Edinburgh Lecture, 30 April 2013
The Applied Quantitative Methods
Network (AQMeN)
• A multi-disciplinary research centre which currently has 4 primary strands of
research: Crime, Education, Urban Segregation and Constitutional Change
• Policy focused research using existing secondary data from surveys or
administrative sources
• Research feeds into a wider programme of training in quantitative methods
for UK social science community and engagement with policy, practice and
the public in order to generate impact.
• Funded by the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) and Scottish
Funding Council (SFC) for 3 years; with further ESRC funding for 4 years.
www.aqmen.ac.uk
AQMeN Crime and Victimisation Strand
• Broad aim: – To address a series of questions about changes in crime over
time and explore this at both the individual and geographical
level, with a view to informing more effective policy and practice.
• Four interconnected phases: 1. Explaining change in crime over time.
2. Identifying the participants in crime.
3. Determining criminal careers.
4. Evaluating the impact of interventions.
Sources of secondary data
• Administrative data:
– National statistics (e.g. police recorded crime, courts data, prisons data)
– Convictions data (e.g. Offenders Index, PNC)
– Census data (e.g. Scottish Longitudinal Study)
– Geographical data (e.g. Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics)
– Local crime data (e.g. Police Scotland data)
• Large-scale national ‘victimisation’ surveys
– Scottish Crime and Justice Survey
– Crime Survey of England and Wales
– International Crime and Victimisation Survey
• National and local ‘offender’ surveys
– Offending Crime and Justice Survey
– Edinburgh Study of Youth Transitions and Crime
Phase 1:
Explaining change in crime over time
• In the forty years between 1955-1995 (during which many of the
criminologists active today learned their craft), the great question
was – ‘what explains rising crime?’.
• Since 1995, this has been stood on its head – many countries
worldwide have seen an unprecedented drop in crime rates.
• A variety of hypotheses have been put forward for this phenomenon,
but few have been tested internationally.
• Some work has been done to explain the crime drop within the UK,
but little or none in Scotland.
US crime trends
Source: Rosenfeld (2010) Crime Trends Monitor
EU crime trends (indexed at 2000)
Source: Eurostat - Crimes recorded by the police (accessed February 2013)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Belgium
Bulgaria
Croatia
Czech Republic
Estonia
Finland
Germany
Hungary
Italy
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Malta
Norway
Poland
Romania
Slovakia
Slovenia
Falls in five crime categories
Source: Tseloni et al (2010) Exploring the international decline in crime rates
England & Wales crime trends
Source: ONS - Trends in recorded crime and CSEW, 1981 to year ending September 2012
(accessed February 2013)
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
19
81
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
/99
19
99
/00
20
00
/01
20
01
/02
20
02
/03
20
03
/04
20
04
/05
20
05
/06
20
06
/07
20
07
/08
20
08
/09
20
09
/10
Yr e
nd
Sep
t 1
1
Yr e
nd
Sep
t 1
2
Total CSEWcrime
Total policerecorded crime
Cri
me
(th
ou
san
ds)
Scotland crime trends: police recorded crime
Source: Scottish Government (2012) Recorded Crime in Scotland, 2011-12, Statistical Bulletin, p1
Scottish police recorded crime:
A different perspective
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
Total crimes
Total offences
Nu
mb
er
Scotland crime trends: Scottish crime surveys
Source: Scottish Government (2011) 2010/11 Scottish Crime and Justice Survey: Main Findings, p24
Survey crimes vs
Police Recorded Offences/Crimes
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1992 1995 1999 2002 2003/04 2005/06 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11
Total Surveycrimes
Total PoliceRecordedOffences
Total PoliceRecorded Crimes
Notes:
1)These data are not directly comparable due to differences in measurement and definition.
2) Gap years are not included in chart.
Scotland’s ‘criminal record’
• “Scotland has been named the most violent
country in the developed world” (BBC coverage
of a UN report, 2005)
• “Scotland has the second highest murder rate in
Europe” (Guardian report of a WHO study, 2005)
• Police Recorded Crime rates show a substantial
increase in minor assault since 2004 (Scottish
Government 2007)
• “Murder and Sex Crimes on the Up” (The
Scottish Sun, 2011)
• The least peaceful major urban centre in the UK
is Glasgow (Institute of Economics and Peace
2013)
Scotland’s ‘criminal record’
• “Scotland has been named the most violent
country in the developed world” (BBC coverage
of a UN report, 2005)
• “Scotland has the second highest murder rate in
Europe” (Guardian report of a WHO study, 2005)
• Police Recorded Crime rates show a substantial
increase in minor assault since 2004 (Scottish
Government 2007)
• “Murder and Sex Crimes on the Up” (The
Scottish Sun, 2011)
• The least peaceful major urban centre in the UK
is Glasgow (Institute of Economics and Peace
2013)
Potential explanations? • International hypotheses:
– The ‘Obama Effect’
– Falling demand for Crack Cocaine
– Increased availability of legal abortion
– Reductions in lead in petrol
– The baby boomers grew up
• UK hypotheses
– Improvements in physical security and target hardening
– Smarter policing practices (e.g. data sharing, crime mapping)
– Expansion of electronic surveillance (e.g. CCTV, camera phones)
– A reduction in public alcohol consumption (true in Scotland?)
– Changes in ‘youth culture’ (e.g. internet use and video games
rather than hanging around the streets).
Sources of data on youth crime in
Scotland
A report commissioned by Scottish Government (Pieda Consulting, 2005)
noted the following:
• Police recorded crime statistics provide only a partial picture of crime and cannot
determine the level of youth crime as the perpetrator is usually unknown.
• Court statistics provide data on those proceeded against in court, but few crimes
result in court proceedings and most young people are dealt with by the Children’s
Hearing System.
• The Children’s Hearing System has data on young people referred on offence
grounds but not all crime committed by young people is dealt with by the Children’s
Hearing System.
• The Scottish Crime and Justice Survey collects data on victims of some types of
crime, but only for those aged 16 or over living in residential households. It doesn’t
cover all types of crime and details on the offenders are limited.
• Any national survey of young people in Scotland has either had too small numbers to
draw any meaningful conclusions or has focused on issues other than offending.
• The only large-scale source of data on youth offending in Scotland is the Edinburgh
Study of Youth Transitions and Crime.
How much youth crime?
Source: SCRA Online Statistics Dashboard, 2012.
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
20000
Number of children referred on offence grounds
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140N
um
ber
per
1000 p
opula
tion
Age 17
Age 16
Number of 16 and 17 year olds with charges proved in court
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
Direct sentence (under 21)
Average daily prison population of prisoners in Scotland
Sources: Criminal
Proceedings in Scottish
Courts Statistical Bulletins &
Prison Statistics Bulletins
• “Taken together, information from these two sources - the administrative
statistics and the research-base - provide a broad-brush picture of young
people and violence in Scotland. This is also a rather limited picture, as
much remains unknown about youth violence in Scotland. There is little
doubt that there is a significant lack of available data on youth
offending and the wider experiences of young people in Scotland. The
administrative statistical data has a range of limitations, and there is no
large-scale youth offending survey such as those found in other
jurisdictions. The data deficiencies have clear implications for
understanding underlying causes of offending amongst young people,
trends in offending over time, longer term outcomes for offenders and
effectiveness of current intervention policies and practice.” (Fraser et al,
2010, Youth Violence in Scotland: A literature review)
The Edinburgh Study of Youth
Transitions and Crime
22
About the Edinburgh Study
• Prospective longitudinal study of pathways into and out of offending
• Involving a cohort of around 4,300 young people who started secondary school in Edinburgh in 1998
• Aims to study offending within 3 main contexts: – Individual development through the life-course
– Physical and social structure of neighbourhoods
– Impact of interaction with agencies of social control & law enforcement
• Broad research programme with multiple forms of data collection
• Key aim is to inform policy development at local and national level
23
The study design
Census based approach involving all Edinburgh Schools
School participants: All 23 mainstream schools, 8 out of 14 Independent schools
and 9 out of 12 special schools (92.2% coverage)
Parental consent (3.1% opt out rate)
Six annual sweeps of data collection (1st-6th year of secondary school) involving
self-completion questionnaires administered in schools (high response rates)
Seventh sweep of fieldwork in 2009/10 following up those who were referred to
the Children’s Hearing System on offence grounds
24
Multiple methods of data collection
The young people:
• Self-completion questionnaires (6 annual sweeps + 1 follow up)
• Semi-structured interviews (sweeps 2 and 6 + follow-up narratives)
Schools:
• Survey of teachers (sweep 2)
• School records about attendance & exclusion (annual)
• SQA exam results (sweep 4 onwards)
Families:
• Survey of parents (sweep 4)
Communities:
• Community survey (sweep 3)
• Geographical study of Edinburgh neighbourhoods (updated annually)
Youth/criminal justice:
• Police Juvenile Liaison Officer records (to age 16)
• Children’s hearing and social work records (to age 18)
• Criminal records (to age 22)
Questions on offending
• A wide range of ‘offending’ questions were asked (from low level delinquency to serious forms of offending)
• 10 key questions at each sweep – Truancy
– Breach of the peace
– Vandalism
– Fire raising
– Shoplifting
– Theft from a vehicle
– Housebreaking
– Hitting/kicking/punching
– Carrying a weapon
– Theft by force (robbery)
Involvement in offending
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Up to 12
'ever'
13 14 15 16 17
Age
% o
f all y
ou
ng
peo
ple Any offending (10 types)
Antisocial behaviour
Theft
Violence
Involvement in serious offending
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
12 13 14 15 16 17
% o
f co
ho
rt
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
mea
n n
um
ber
of
seri
ou
s o
ffen
ces
Prevalence of serious offending
Frequency of serious offending
Note: Serious offending = housebreaking, car breaking, joy riding, robbery, weapon carrying, assault
(6+), fire-raising.
Referral to the Children’s Hearing System
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Age
% o
f y
ou
ng
pe
op
le
Of all Edinburgh
Study cohort
Referral to the Children’s Hearing System
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Age
% o
f y
ou
ng
pe
op
le
Of all Edinburgh
Study cohort
Of all referred
30 30
Conviction in the adult criminal justice system
0
50
100
150
200
250
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Age in years
Nu
mb
er
of
co
ho
rt m
em
be
rs w
ith
at
lea
st
on
e c
ha
rge
pro
ve
d
Note: Cohort=3855 whose names were checked against criminal conviction records.
Profile of those convicted
• 15% of all study members were convicted by age 22: – Males were more likely (24%) than females (6%)
– Females accounted for 12% of all convictions (compared to 15% nationally)
– The peak age of conviction was 18 (same as the national figure)
• Amongst those who were convicted: – An average of 5.9 convictions per person
– The largest number of convictions for any one person was 114
– Males had a significantly higher number of convictions on average (6.5) compared with females (3.6)
32 32
Comparing convictions data with self-
reported offending data
0
50
100
150
200
250
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Age in years
Nu
mb
er
of
co
ho
rt m
em
be
rs w
ith
at
lea
st
on
e c
ha
rge
pro
ve
d
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Nu
mb
er
of
co
ho
rt m
em
be
rs w
ho
rep
ort
ed
1+
se
rio
us
off
en
ce
s
Notes: Cohort=3855 whose names were checked against criminal conviction records; self-
report data are unweighted.
33 33
Probability of criminal convictions:
Conviction trajectories (McAra and McVie, 2010)
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Age of conviction
Pro
bab
ilit
y o
f co
nvic
tio
n Early onset
chronic (1%)
Early onset
desisters (1%)
Later onset
decliners (13%)
No conviction
(85%)
Note: Cohort=3855 whose names were checked against criminal conviction records.
34
How do the early onset groups
differ at age 12?
• No significant differences on measures of deprivation, family problems, delinquent peers, risky leisure activities, school problems (truancy, exclusion and bad behaviour), personality dimensions or moral attitudes to crime.
• No significant difference in frequency of serious offending according to self-reports.
0
5
10
15
20
Age 12 Age 13 Age 14 Age 15 Age 16 Age 17
Me
an
vo
lum
e s
eri
ou
s o
ffe
nd
ing
Desisters
Chronics
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Age of conviction
Pro
bab
ilit
y o
f co
nvic
tio
n
Early onset
chronic (1%)
Early onset
desisters (1%)
Convictions data Self-report data
What changes between age 12 and 15?
• The early onset group that went on to have a pattern of
‘chronic’ convictions were more likely than the desisters
to:
– truant from school
– be excluded from school
– get into trouble with the police
– and receive statutory supervision from CHS during this period
NOTE: the groups did not differ on any of these things at age 12.
Youth to adult criminal justice transitions (McAra and McVie 2007, 2010)
• Criminal justice outcomes of those referred to hearing system:
– 55% of those ‘ever’ referred on offence grounds convicted by age 22 compared with 10% of those with no hearing record (5x higher)
– 13% of those ‘ever’ referred on offence grounds imprisoned by age 22 compared with 0.4% of those with no hearing record (33x higher)
– 71% of those made subject to compulsory measures of care convicted by age 22 (compared with 51% of those referred but not placed on supervision)
• Key factors predicting transition from youth to adult system: – Excluded from school by 3rd year of secondary school
– Early history of police warnings/charges
– Being male
– ***Assessed as most ‘needy’ in reporter files***
Some concluding points
• Research to explain the Scottish crime drop is underway, but it will be
significantly weakened by the lack of data on how individual behaviour
(especially amongst young people) has changed.
• There are important gaps in our knowledge about patterns, trends and
explanations for youth offending in Scotland (we are lagging behind many
other countries).
• Studies such as the Edinburgh Study highlight the value of measuring
offending independently of (but also connecting it to) administrative data.
• Without repeated/longitudinal national surveys of offending (like we have for
victimisation) we cannot gain a clear picture of how much youth (or adult)
crime there is in Scotland nor how or why it changes over time.
References
• Fraser, A., Burman, M., Batchelor, S., and McVie, S. (2010) Youth violence in Scotland: a
literature review. Edinburgh: Scottish Government Research Report.
• McAra, L. and McVie, S. (2007) ‘Youth justice? The impact of system contact on patterns of
desistance from offending’, European Journal of Criminology, 4(3): 315-345
• McAra, L. and McVie, S. (2010) ‘Youth Crime and Justice: Key messages from the Edinburgh
Study of Youth Transitions and Crime’, Criminology and Criminal Justice, 10(2): 179-209.
• Institute for Economics & Peace (2013) UK Peace Index: Exploring the fabric of peace in the UK
from 2003 to 2012.
• Pieda Consulting (2005) Measurement of the Extent of Youth Crime in Scotland. Edinburgh:
Scottish Executive Research Report.
• Rosenfeld (2010) Crime Trends Monitor. http://www.crimetrends.com/index.html
• Scottish Government (2007) Recorded Crime In Scotland, 2006/07, Statistical Bulletin.
• Scottish Government (2011) 2010/11 Scottish Crime and Justice Survey: Main Findings.
Edinburgh: Scottish Government Research Report.
• Scottish Government (2012) Recorded Crime in Scotland, 2011-12, Statistical Bulletin
• Tseloni, A., Mailley, J., Farrell, G. and Tilley, N., (2010) Exploring the international decline in crime
rates . European Journal of Criminology. 7(5): 375-394.