the myth of influencers
DESCRIPTION
Our own experience tells us, that some people are more influential then others. A good run CRM system should therefore identify those “Opinion Leader”, “task makers” or “influencer” to treat them differently. But do they even exist? Lutz Finger (@LutzFinger) will look at anecdotal evidence as well as research to clarify how to measure influence. The findings: # Influencers are often not wide-spreading… they are local. # There not only a few dominating the rest… it is more network and peer pressure which influences. # Influencers are often overestimated… 50% is homophily. # Influence very much depends on the topic. Rather than to look for influencers look for Broadcaster. However be aware that broadcaster only create awareness and not necessarily intention. The video from the presentation: http://youtu.be/HgCNwUytjZITRANSCRIPT
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The Myth of Influence
@LutzFinger
@LutzFinger
Co-‐Founder
Researcher & Speaker
Book Author
Quiz Please raise your hand, if….
• Would you choose a doctor because friends recommended it?
• Would you choose a computer program because friends recommended it?
• Would you have gone to a movie because your friends recommended the movie?
Success Stories
● 100 influencers in social media ● Offered Test Drives and “broadcasted” their comments ● YouTube videos related to this campaign generated over 6.5 million views
… and was it successful? ● Ford received more than 50,000 requests for informaQon ● 10,000 cars were sold in the first six days
Source: "Demys.fying social media," McKinsey Quarterly, April 2012 Picture: YouTube channel
Awareness Trigger Intention
Influencer
The Marketer Dream
Logo by OCAL & clker.com
The Marketer Dream
Logo by OCAL & clker.com
The Marketer Dream
Logo by OCAL & clker.com
Since 1955
● opinion leaders (Katz and Lazarsfelt 1955) ● influenQals (Merton 1968) ● Influencers (Rand 2004) ● e-‐fluenQals (Burson-‐Marsteller 2001) ● hubs (Rosen 2000) ● Mavens & connectors (Gladwell 2000)
Source: Amazon.com
Website
Law of the Few Social epidemics (are)… driven by the efforts of a handful of exceptional people (Malcom Gladwell, 2000, The Tipping Point)
Influence can be local
Source: h3p://www.doh.wa.gov/
Why? ● By Chance? ● Influence? ● Socio-‐Economical?
Yahoo! Go
Source: Sinan Arala, Lev Muchnik, and Arun Sundararajan (2009): PNAS Vol 106, no 51
IntroducQon 2007 QuesQon:
• friends influence friends to adopt • friends with similar backgrounds and tastes adopt (homophily)
Sinan Arala et.al.: • Analyzed 27.4 million users • 89 million disQnct relaQonships • 14 bn page views • 3.9 bn messages • Over 5 month
Influence comes from many
Source: Sinan Arala, Lev Muchnik, and Arun Sundararajan (2009): PNAS Vol 106, no 51
FracOo
n of Ado
pters v
s. Non
-‐ado
pters
Number of Adopters in Network
• Network externality are the main driver for Influence -‐ contagious • Homophily is accounQng for 50% of the adopQon effect
Influence depends on the Topic
Source: Kevin Lewisa, Marco Gonzaleza and Jason Kaufman (2012): PNAS Vol 109, no 1
Not all Topics are: • 4 years • 1001 Students on Facebook • tradiQonal Self-‐reported Data • How did taste Spread
Source: orgtheory.net
The Myth of Influencer
● Influence can be local
● Influence is done by many (like peer pressure) ● Influence might be in reality homophily
● Influence depends on topic
13
BUT why…. Aja Dior M. omgg, my aunt .ffany who work for whitney houston just found whitney houston dead in the tub. such ashamed & sad :(
45 min
Or why….
6 month
Source: TED talk by Kevin Allocca
15
BroadcasQng ≠ Influence
Awareness ≠ IntenQon
How to MEASURE broadcast
● Reach ● AcQvity ● Engagement
16
Youth Olympic Games
17
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Athletes Role Models
Young Ambassadors
Young Reporters
YOG Ambassador
AcOvity versus Response
Response
PromoQng YOG Social Media AcQvity
● Reach ● AcQvity ● Engagement
Source: Fisheye Analy.cs
CRM Strategy
● Re-‐Check your Influencer Strategy: ─ It might be local ─ It might be more based on peer pressure ─ It might not fit all of your products
● Look out for the Broadcaster ─ Most reach measure will work ─ Be sure that you measure engagement ─ Stay away from acQvity
Intent
Awareness
Source: Fisheye Analy.cs
Thanks
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Book by O’Reilly Media To be published in Spring 2013