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Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre The National Climate and Water Briefing December 2011

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Page 1: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

The National Climate and Water Briefing

December 2011

Page 2: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Climate conditions and outlook

Dr Karl Braganza Manager Climate Monitoring

Page 3: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Climate conditions and outlook

•  Summary of WMO global climate statement •  Recent climate conditions and trends •  Current and forecast state of key climate drivers •  Climate outlook

Page 4: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Climate conditions and outlook

•  Summary of WMO global climate statement •  Recent climate conditions and trends •  Current and forecast state of key climate drivers •  Climate outlook

Page 5: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

2011 global highlights

•  10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C)

•  The 13 warmest years have all occurred in the 15 years between 1997 and 2011

•  Warmest year with a La Niña on record

http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/press_releases/gcs_2011_en.html

Page 6: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Arctic sea ice • Sea ice reflects sunlight,

keeping the Arctic region cool and moderating global climate

• September Arctic sea ice extent has declined by 12% per decade since 1979

http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2011/arctic-sea-ice-continues-decline-reaches-second-lowest-level

Page 7: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

La Niña global effects in 2011: drought

Southern United States

Tuvalu drought

2011

Central Equatorial Pacific h"p://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/NaturalHazards/view.php?id=48850  

Eastern Africa

Page 8: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

La Niña global effects in 2011: floods

Southern Africa Southern Asia Eastern Australia

River peaks: 26 Nov 2010–

20 Jan 2011

Page 9: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

2011 Australian highlights: January–November

Rainfall Maximum Temperatures Minimum Temperatures 623.77mm  

2nd  highest  on  record  -­‐0.18°C   -­‐0.12°C  

Page 10: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Climate conditions and outlook

•  Summary of WMO global climate statement •  Recent climate conditions and trends •  Current and forecast state of key climate drivers •  Climate outlook

Page 11: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Calculating deciles

Sort and rank

Historical record Sorted historical record

Group into tenths for deciles

Deciles 1 to 10 1   2   3   4   5   6   7   8   9   10  

Page 12: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

No two La Niñas are alike

2010 Spring Rainfall deciles

September–November 2011

2011 Spring Rainfall deciles

Winter/Spring

Mean Rainfall deciles for 12 La Niña years

September–November 2010

Page 13: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

2010 Spring Ocean Temperature deciles

2010

2011

2010 2011

No two La Niñas are alike

2011 Spring Ocean Temperature deciles

Page 14: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

No two La Niñas are alike

2011 2010

2011 Spring Ocean Temperature Anomalies 2010 Spring Ocean Temperature Anomalies

Page 15: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Rainfall 2011

Rainfall deciles

April–September 1–5 December

Percentage of average December rainfall

October–November

Rainfall deciles

January–March

Rainfall deciles

Page 16: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Temperature 2011

Summer Max Temp Anomalies Autumn Max Temp Anomalies Winter Max Temp Anomalies Spring Max Temp Anomalies

Page 17: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Current upper layer soil moisture

• Top layers are wet again through QLD and WA

• Lower layers are still dry in southwest WA and southeast Australia

Current lower layer soil moisture

Soil moisture reflects rainfall over recent months

Page 18: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Climate conditions and outlook

•  Summary of WMO global climate statement •  Recent climate conditions and trends •  Current and forecast state of key climate drivers •  Climate outlook

Page 19: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

El Niño

La Niña

Pacific Ocean – forecast

•  La Niña conditions forecast to continue through summer

•  Event has started late in the year

•  Current conditions indicate a weaker event than in 2010–11

POAMA forecast

bom.gov.au/climate/enso

El Niño

- 0.8 ▼

+0.8 ▲

La Niña

November sea surface temperatures

Page 20: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Climate conditions and outlook

•  Summary of WMO global climate statement •  Recent climate conditions and trends •  Current and forecast state of key climate drivers •  Climate outlook

Page 21: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Rainfall outlook for January–March 2012

75% chance of exceeding Chance of at least 200 mm Chance of above median rainfall

Page 22: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Seasonal outlook

Confidence in rainfall outlook

POAMA outlook Historical performance

Page 23: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

•  Warm days in the south and east, cool days in the west

•  Warm nights over the northern half of Australia and in the west

Minimum temperature Maximum temperature

Temperature outlook for January–March 2012

Page 24: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

History provides a good guide to the tropical cyclone season

Neutral Years La Niña Years

Page 25: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Key points

1.  Recent rainfall has been above average over Australia, excluding the far east of Queensland 2.  La Niña has established in Pacific – indicators are much weaker than 2010 3.  Onset of the monsoon is expected in mid December 4.  Outlook is for wetter conditions in the west and parts of far eastern Australia

Page 26: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Hydrologic conditions and outlook

Neil Plummer Assistant Director Climate Information Services

Page 27: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Hydrologic conditions and outlook

•  Recent storage and catchment conditions •  NSW floods in November and December •  Streamflow forecasts for summer and flood risk

Page 28: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Hydrologic conditions and outlook

•  Recent storage and catchment conditions •  NSW floods in November and December •  Streamflow forecasts for summer and flood risk

Page 29: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Water storage levels – current status and one year ago

water.bom.gov.au

Page 30: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Streamflow records: December 2010 to November 2011

Month Monthly streamflow records broken

December 2010 10 January 2011 7 February 2011 13 March 2011 6 November 2011 1

Page 31: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

November soil moisture – upper and lower layers

Upper layer soil moisture Lower layer soil moisture

Page 32: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

November catchment rainfall and streamflows

Southern NSW streamflow terciles Rainfall

High flowNear median flowLow flow

High flowNear median flowLow flow

VictoriaMonthly Streamflow Observationsfor November 2011

High flowNear median flowLow flow

High flowNear median flowLow flow

Southern New South WalesMonthly Streamflow Observationsfor November 2011

Victorian streamflow terciles

High flowNear median flowLow flow

High flowNear median flowLow flow

Northern New South WalesMonthly Streamflow Observationsfor November 2011

Northern NSW streamflow terciles

Page 33: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Hydrologic conditions and outlook

•  Recent storage and catchment conditions •  New South Wales floods in November and December •  Streamflow forecasts for summer and flood risk

Page 34: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

New South Wales floods: November and December

•  Started 22nd November •  Moderate to major flooding in

Macintyre, Namoi and Gwydir Valleys •  Moderate flooding extending down

the Barwon-Darling reaching Wilcannia and Menindee Lakes in late January, early February

Rainfall for week ending 29th November

Page 35: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

New South Wales floods: November and December

•  Keepit Dam operators adopt Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts in pre-release decision process

•  Flood peak at Gunnedah maintained below critical flood levels

Page 36: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Hydrologic conditions and outlook

•  Recent storage and catchment conditions •  NSW floods in November and December •  Streamflow forecasts for summer and flood risk

Page 37: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Streamflow forecasts for summer

Victoria Southern New South Wales Northern New South Wales

Page 38: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Elevated flood risk

Lower layer soil moisture

0 – 50

51-75

76-100

100 +

Water storages % full

January to March rainfall outlook Latest storage levels

Page 39: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Current flood conditions and rainfall forecast

Current river conditions Water and the Land rainfall forecast

Page 40: The National Climate and Water Briefing · • 10th warmest year to date January–October temperature: +0.41 °C ± 0.11 °C (1960–1990 annual average of 14.00 °C) • The 13

Lake Eyre - © Pete Dobre

Key points

•  37 monthly streamflow records broken December 2010 – November 2011 •  Recent flooding in Northern NSW and Queensland •  2011–12 summer – near median to high flows forecast •  Wet soils, high storage levels, mild La Niña conditions " elevated flood risk


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