the national expert sdg tool for energy planning (nexstep ......the national expert sdg tool for...
TRANSCRIPT
The National Expert SDG Tool for Energy Planning (NEXSTEP) and the Asia Pacific Energy and Resource Modelling Platform
CLEWs framework: Nicaragua case
MINISTERIO DE HACIENDA
Y CRÉDITO PÚBLICO
MHCP
Osmar CuadraPublic Investment [email protected]
Figures
2
Capital Managua
Area (Kms2) 130,373
Country Location Central America
Population (Millions)/1 6.4
Income per-cápita (U$) /1 2,160.6
Poverty/2 29.6%
GDP (U$ Millions) /1 13,814.2
GDP Growth Rate (%) /1 4.9
Electrification rate/3 95.8%
% Urban HH with clean cooking/2 72.8%
% Rural HH with clean cooking/2 9.3%
PacificRegion
Central Region
CaribbeanRegion
/1 2017 /2 2014 /3 2019Source: Central Bank of Nicaragua, INIDE and IMF.
Figures-Energy sector
Big issues:
• Drop the energy price but
preserving the criteria of safety
and quality of service.
• System reliability in the context
of climate change.
• Reduce the investment risk for
the private sector.
Figures-Land use
1983 2000 2010 20152005
Main challenges:
• Reconcile the expected increase in agricultural and livestock production with the
national goal to increase forest land use.
• Mitigate the impact of climate change on water cycle by increasing the forest land use.
Figures: Climate
Rainfall pattern change
Figures: Climate
Rainfall pattern change
Main challenges:
• Increasing demand for water to
irrigate crops (sugar cane) at a time
that drinking water is increasing.
• Manage water resource to generate
electricity and satisfy water demand
for others sectors.
Land use representation
7
Caribbean region
Hydro powerWater availability
Climate change
Pacific region
Water availability Irrigation
Central region
Water availability
Non-agricultural
demand
Crops Hydro power
Non-agricultural
demand
Climate change
Climate change
Agriculturalborder
Land use representation
Pacific region
• Coffee
• Sugar cane
• Grains irrigated
• Oilseeds
• Vegetables
• Other crops
Caribbean region
• Coffee
• Grains (beans and maize)
• Vegetables
• Other crops
Central region
• Coffee
• Grains (beans and maize)
• Oilseeds
• Vegetables
• Other crops
Land use representation
Superficial water
– agriculture
DEMAGRWAT1
Groundwater –
agriculture
DEMAGRWAT1
Sugar Cane –
region 1
LNDSUG1IAGRWAT1
Rainfall resource
RNWLND1
Superficial water
resource
WATSUR001
WATSUR1
WATRUN1
Superficial water for
non agriculture use
DEMNAGWAT1WATSUR1
WATEVT1
WATGRD1
Superficial water for
environmental flows
WATENV001
WATPREC1
Groundwater–
XXXGRWAT1
Groundwater– non
agricultura use
DEMNAGRWTG1
ELC
ELC
ELC
GSL, DSL,…
Energy chain of NicaraguaEn
ergy
re
pre
sent
atio
n
RS-
Res
ult
s
RS-
Res
ult
s
Scenarios - Biomass power production
New capacity installed to biomass power
34
50
Inst
alle
d c
apac
ity
(MW
)
Reforestation scenario
Cultivated
pasture
Natural
pasture
Mixed
pasture Total
Dairy cows 217 147 114 139
Beef cattle 81 94 78 83
Combined 155 126 114 124
Other 161 115 85 111
Total 161 121 100 117
Stocking rate [heads of cattle per Sq. Km]
Cultivated pastureNatural pastureMixed pasture Total
Dairy cows 55.1 30.3 24.5 30.8
Beef cattle 6.4 3.4 4.2 4.4
Combined 25.6 16.4 17.8 18.7
Other 25.9 19.0 12.5 17.4
Total 28.7 18.8 15.9 19.0
Milk yield [Klitres per Km2]
Reforestation scenarioScenario Reference Medium growth High growth Medium growrh +
Production of cattleand milk
Constant 1.1%-0.6% 4%-2.9% 1.1%-0.6%
Allocation betweentypes of pastures
Free allocation with bounds
Free allocation with bounds
Free allocation with bounds
Fixed pasture shares
Reforestation scenario-reference
Reforestation scenario-medium growth
Reforestation scenario-medium growth with no allocation of land
Reforestation scenario-high growth
Soft link of energy and CGE modelsHH consumption 2018-2030 (NPV C$ 108)
GHG emissions
decrees 2018-2030 Poverty Level in
2030 Porcentual variation of GDP
Capacity building
2014
1 OSeMOSYs
workshop
2015
2 CGE and 2 OSeMOSYsworkshops
2016
Technicalreport of
futureenergy
pathways
1 WEAP workshop
2017
3 CLEWsworkshops
Trieste SummerSchool
2018
PN on RE investment
and externalvulnerability
1 CLEWsworkshop
Central Bank and Ministry
of Finance
NationalInstitute of Territorial
studies
Ministry of Energy and
Mining
Next update1. Update rainfall and evapotranspiration data, improve soil use information and interlink the groundwater resource with the extracting technology (WEAP).
2. Use the climate scenarios generated by national agency to study climate change impacts.
3. Create a connection between surface water and hydroelectric generation (WEAP-CLEWS).
4. To take into account Greenhouse Gas Emission related to land use changes.
5. Improve the time framework representation to reflects the seasonality of water availability for crops.
6. To take into account the GHG emission by livestock sector and, at the same time, study what are the opportunity to produce biogas and reduce GHG emissions.
Thank you
MINISTERIO DE HACIENDA
Y CRÉDITO PÚBLICO
MHCP