Roger S. PulwartyChief, Climate and Societal Interactions Division

NOAA

The National Integrated Drought Information System

Climate‐A continuumand an adaptation deficit 

30DAYS

1SEASON

Heat WavesStorm Track VariationsMadden-Julian Oscillation

El Niño-Southern Oscillation

3YEARS

10YEARS

Decadal VariabilitySolar VariabilityDeep Ocean CirculationGreenhouse Gases

30YEARS

100YEARS

SHORT-TERM INTERANNUAL DECADE-TO-CENTURY

How do we “usually” adapt?

Infrastructure/assets

Technological process optimization

Institutional and behavioral changes or reinforcement

Crisis, learning and redesign

Adaptation: Crisis, learning and redesign

What has led to “action”?

1. Focusing events-extremes, legal decisions etc.

2. Leadership at different levels and the public are engaged

3. Support for a collaborative framework between research and management-integrated, scenarios, scenarios/gaming, communication, embedding information into practice, evaluation

4. Existing social basis or even pressure for collaboration

Three tasks under the NIDIS Act Public Law 109-430, 2006

(I) Provide an effective drought early warning system: (a) collect and integrate key indicators of drought severity and impacts; and (b) produce timely information that reflect local, regional, and State differences;

(II) Coordinate and integrate as practicable, Federal research in support of a drought early warning system;

(III) Build upon existing forecasting and assessment programs and partnerships

ApplicationsResearch

PredictionMonitoring

ImpactMitigation

ProactivePlanning

ImprovedAdaptation

Integrating Tools e.g.Drought Monitor/Portal

Coordinate  existing federal, state, and local drought‐related data and decision support activities (e.g., within watersheds and states)

Identifying and transferring indicators, decision support tools and innovative strategies for drought risk assessment, communication and preparedness

NIDIS REGIONAL INFORMATION MANAGEMENT MODEL  

Public AwarenessAnd Education

Engaging PreparednessCommunities

IntegratedMonitoring and

Forecasting

InterdisciplinaryNeeds Assessment,

Research,Applications

U.S.Drought Portal

NIDIS Implementation

Team

NRCS, USGSRiver Forecast Center

Climate Prediction CenterCLIVAR, USDA

Regional Integrated Sciences and AssessmentsRegional Climate Centers

NCAR, USDA

NCDCNDMC-NOAA,USGS, USDA,

USBoR

State ClimatologistsWGA, NWS CSD

USDA

NDMCState Offices

US BoR, USACE

Public AwarenessAnd Education

Engaging PreparednessCommunities

IntegratedMonitoring and

Forecasting

InterdisciplinaryResearch andApplications

U.S.Drought Portal

Regional Drought Early

Warning Information Systems

NIDIS Implementation

Team: Over 50 Federal, state, tribal and private sector

representatives

Key Clearinghouse Functions:Credible, Accessible, Timely Information onCredible, Accessible, Timely Information on

Where are drought conditions now?Does this event look like other events?

How is the drought affecting me?Will the drought continue?Where can I go for help?

Recovery

(Basic Indicators)

Colorado River Water Supply & Use

5.0

7.5

10.0

12.5

15.0

17.5

20.0

22.5

25.0

Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Water Use10 ‐Year Averages from 1923 to 2006

10 ‐Year Running Average Basin Water Supply

10 ‐Year Running Average Basin Water Use

Water Use

Water Supply

Short-termScheduling

Long-termPlanning

Mid-termOperations

Real-timeControl

Spatial Resolution/Time Horizon Operational Activity Decisions

Basin-wide over decades

Basin-wide over 1-2 years

Sub-basin over 4-6 weeks

Single project over 1-7 days

Operating Criteria and Guidelines

Annual Operating Plan

Water and PowerSchedules

Unit CommitmentEconomic Dispatch

Automatic Generationand Control

NIDIS Products and Services in the Colorado Basin to date

•New watershed-based drought indicators and triggers used in the Upper Basin•Improved linkages between climate and streamflowmodeling during drought•Spatial analysis of water demand during drought •Low flow impacts database for 164 NWS forecast points•Reconciling projections of climate change on water •UCRB Community Colorado Basin-specific Drought Portal•Weekly Drought and Water Outlook webinars/early warning discussions with resource managers in the UCRB•Engaging underserved communities

Surface Water Supply Index (SWSI) Developed in 1981 for Colorado

(adopted by other Western States)

Integrates Snowpack, Reservoir Storage, Streamflow, & Precipitation at High Elevation

Standardized Units

Plotted by River Basin

http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/wsf/swsi.html

Water accounting components

Surface Storage

Recharge

ET

Baseflow

Runoff

Precipitation

USGS

•Recharge•GW yields•Changes in storage.•Saltwater Intrusion•Trends in GW Indices•Artificial Recharge•GW/SW Interactions

Assess Groundwater’s role in Water Availability

Groundwater depletion

trends(groundwater 30% of available

freshwater on the planet)1000 = one cubic kilometer of

depletion per year

The future (2041-2060): where do the models agree?

Many potential futures ???????

“ALSO, THE BRIDGE IS OUT AHEAD”

Focus on the critical problems: not just asking but answering the right question

Demand‐Counties with peak demand  in June

Direct‐flow water rights of each primary decreed use as a percentage 

of total 

Wilhelmi,2011 NCAR, NOAA

Irrigated Agriculture: average (1980‐2008) irrigation diversions for June

by climate zone

Correlation with Drought Indices

Upper Colorado Basin Drought Outlooks

Revision of the Plans to meet drought requirements of the State Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan, as well as FEMA

NIDIS role

•Development of indices that incorporate current surface water conditions and a forecast component

•Assessment of trigger points and responses

•Weekly Early Warning Webinars•(coordinated with River Forecast Center briefings)

Native Nations in SW

6 million acres/ 242kha  of land  held in trust by the US for American 

Indian tribes and Alaska Natives Reservations and tribal lands are 

>25% of land in AZ Confronting same climate trends, 

need same info, but context is different

• cultural ties to landscape• federal trust relationship• widely variable capacity 

25

Landscape changes-Drought Early Warning on Tribal Lands in the Four-Corners Region

(Nature, 2009)

Dryness of climate

Mea

n ve

geta

ti on

biom

ass

Co‐produced Scenarios: Navajo Lands

Drought          SeverityDuration and Frequency

change little

Extreme Droughts

become far more common

Patterns change little

Patterns shift – more winter precipitation relative to

summer

Precipitation Patterns

Shrubland Novel Ecosystem

Mixed-grass Prairie Shortgrass Prairie

Through conversations before and during workshops, the team identified the most important and most uncertain climate drivers that will affect conditions over the next 40 years. These were combined in the following matrix. (Also note that temperature increase was a ‘given’ so it applies in all scenarios

Ecosystem becomes more susceptible to annual grass invaders.  Fate of pines and other trees uncertain.  Soil erosion increases. Faunal composition  changes.

Increased evaporation decreases plant productivity somewhat;  ecosystem change occurs, but more slowly  and/or to lesser degree than in other scenarios.

Climate changes quickly to something like  southern SW U.S. and species migration limited. Water table drops; streams go from perennial to intermittent or 

gone.  Soil erosion increases.  Many fauna may not be sustainable.

Forest is more restricted by moisture than currently.  Megafauna  capacity decreases because 

forage production is lower.  Water table drops; spring and stream flow decreases or ceases, 

depending on location.

Flash floods entering caves more often

Native grassland replaced by shrubland and exotic annuals

Ponderosa pine communities more susceptible to catastrophic fires due to decreasing summer precipitation

Period of frequent, intense fire followed by decrease in fire because of lack of fuel

Tough decisions regarding above-ground mission

Extreme heat events – camp fire bans

Decreased water availability

Park culls half of the bison herd – limits on carrying capacity

Changes seen as part of normal variability

Other management issues dominate

Streams more intermittent, trees dry out

The 2010-2011 South Central

U.S. Drought:Driest 2010-2011 TX, OK, NM, LA,

on record

Drought is No Stranger to Texas.

Courtesy of David Hillis, University of TexasSep 2000 May 2010

Climate Model Simulations of Historic La NinasCreating Perfect SST Analogs….24 simulations for each La Niña Since 1950

The Period Oct’10 - June’11 is the Driest 9 Months On Record for NM, TX, OK Area-Average

Did This Particular La Niña Cause This Record Drought? The Severity of the 2011 Drought Has Not Been Caused by La Nina Alone Weak and Strong Las Niñas Have Comparable Efficacy in Causing Drought

Prototyping Regional Early Warning Information Systems systems‐the NIDIS model

Allows for  Existing barriers to cross‐agency collaboration to be addressed 

Innovations and new information to be introduced and tested as baselines change 

The benefits of participation in design, implementation and maintenance to be clarified

Mature prototypes becomes the implemented regional system and its lessons become more likely to be successfully transferred within or to other regions

”Closing” water  systems, drought and scarcity As yet‐Little comprehensive understanding of the long‐term and 

widespread consequences of past adaptations

Complications of changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall,  soil moisture, runoff, frequency and magnitudes of drought are gradually being included in response planning

Systems design, operational inflexibility, and legal and institutional constraints still reduce the adaptability of resource systems to prepare for and respond to drought

Compounded by lack of agreement on event definitions, such as what constitutes an “extraordinary” (i.e., severe and persistent) drought in different place Equitable and reasonable use of water involves definitions of broad 

concepts such as “no harm,” and “optimal utilization”

Ecosystem Services: Flows Needs

• Provide tools and data to systematically assess the ecological affects of hydrologic alteration

• Assist users to develop flow or water level alteration –ecological response relationships by type of water body

Drought and Water Resources:Federal Partnerships

Monitoring & ForecastingDrought and Flood Impacts

Assessments and Scenarios

Communication and Outreach Engaging Preparedness & Adaptation

NIDIS-Early Warning Information in support of Adaptation

Risk information governance

2011 Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk ReductionRevealing Risk, Redefining Development

NIDIS Governance: Executive Council

NIDIS Program Office NIDIS Implementation Team:

NIDIS Technical Working Groups

Regional Drought Early Warning Systems Information clearinghouse,prototypes, and Implementation

REGIONAL

NATIONAL

Public AwarenessAnd Education

Engaging PreparednessCommunities

IntegratedMonitoring and

Forecasting

InterdisciplinaryResearch andApplications

U.S.Drought Portal

WATERSHED/URBAN/LOCAL

39

(i) Understanding the nature of local knowledge, (ii) the transformation processes surrounding local knowledge, (iii) the key dimensions of local knowledge on disaster preparedness, and (iv) the links between local knowledge, disaster preparedness, and livelihoods and poverty reduction.

This does not mean that all local knowledge and practices are appropriate or sustainable

More data and new technology do not always help to decrease the level of drought impacts? Is knowledge lacking?Is knowledge not used? Is knowledge used ineffectively?

Local knowledge

Transitions from applications to adaptation: Social-structural and spatial-temporal, resource management

Limits of co-production

Social-ecological

Path dependence

Organizational boundaries

Joint monitoring and joint fact-finding

IMPACTS VULNERABILITY DEVELOPMENT RESILIENCE

Translation……Transitions……Transformation

THANK YOU!