the national pig...
TRANSCRIPT
The National Pig Association Darlington Pig Discussion
Group
14th April 2016
Perfect storm of events
• Russian trade embargo • Oversupply in Europe • Declining meat consumption in EU AND… • Unfavourable exchange rate
↓DOWNWARD PRESSURE on PRICE !Members losing money on every pig!
• Aldi – committed to British, driving NPD • Asda - ↑ British sourcing to 80% by 2017 • Tesco – BK presented to PG in March • Co-op – NPD, committed to British • Sainsbury’s – new pork product competition!
Linking in with NFU’s Back British Farming – 3 key retailer asks… (Sourcing Guide)
Meetings with Retailers
EU Support Package
• What we asked for: – Re-opening of PSA – Access to finance (e.g. for promotion). – Proper enforcement of the partial sow stall ban – Financing for countries to control ASF – Negotiations with Russia
• What we got: – Meat Market Observatory – PSA ‘potentially’ re-opening
Media Blast!
• NPA conducted more than 20 interviews in the space of 2 weeks
• Regional & national TV, radio, print • Hook to promote British pork • THANK YOU members who got involved!
Media Blast!
• NPA conducted more than 20 interviews in the space of 2 weeks
• Regional & national TV, radio, print • Hook to promote British pork • THANK YOU members who got involved!
Unwanted attention… • 15 pig units targeted in
one week! • Some footage old and
sold later • Three groups active • Mainly explainable –
some not so easy! • New tactics used –
APHA & for planning applications
Be prepared!
• NPA ‘Tidy Units’ campaign • Confidential Reporting Service • NPA pig unit security pack • National police network • Emergency response team • Personal contact and advice • Critical friends & cameras • Look out for each other!
Political lobbying activity • Defra Shadow Minister Nick Smith – farm
visit • Template letter for MPs – public
procurement • Letter to Liz Truss – trotters to China • APPG for eggs, pigs & poultry • Westminster Brief – activists, planning
Brexit – are you in or out?
• NPA will not adopt a formal position • However, some points to consider:
– EU single market & trade – Labour availability – Regulation – EU budget – Direct support – Science & research
• Young NPA EU referendum conference • NFU & CLA providing lots of info
ASF & PEDv • Still a threat! • PEDv in Austria, Belgium, Spain, France,
Italy, the Netherlands and Germany – high morbidity
• ASF in wild boar in Latvia & Estonia – steadily moving westwards
Water provision for piglets • Data on piglet weaning weights and
mortality sent to Defra • Trials using mobile piglet drinkers • AHDB Pork trial work – piglet water
requirements • Interim Defra guidance is that…
Water provision for piglets • Data on piglet weaning weights and
mortality sent to Defra • Trials using mobile piglet drinkers • AHDB Pork trial work – piglet water
requirements • Interim Defra guidance is that…
Manipulable Materials • Recommendations from Commission on
tail docking & provision of enrichment
• Not a legally binding document!
• Successful in ensuring that ‘edible’ was NOT an essential requirement so well done us!!
• Discussing with Defra
Environment & planning • Planning – the new struggle…
– ‘Smear campaigns’ & online petitions – CIWF guidance for objecting to ‘factory farm’
applications – Farms Not Factories campaign
• Rural planning consultation – Effectiveness of current system – Deadline 14th April
• NVZ Action Programme – Designations – FYM/field heaps – Cover crops
UK Rodenticide Stewardship Regime
Sometime from April onwards you will need proof of competence when buying and using rodenticides (>1.5kg). Your options are:
1. Certificate from a CRRU approved training programme
2. Membership of a CRRU approved Farm Assurance Scheme (RT Pigs, QMS + various arable schemes) – until end of 2017
3. Buy & use amateur products 4. Employ services of a professional pest
controller Those that have done the BPEX training in the past have ‘grandfather rights’
Young NPA
• 3 New Regional Chairs – Anna Brown (South) – Becca Inch (East) – Lizzie Jennings (North)
• EPP Congress – May (Dublin) • EU Referendum conference – 5th April
Antibiotics – EU Regs • Veterinary Medicinal Products and
Medicated Feed Directives…
Carry over limit increased to 3% Transport of feed in bulk tanks Metaphylaxis – ill & at-risk animals
X Routine preventative treatment X Prescription only after examination & diagnosis by a vet
Antibiotics – why the pressure? • 52% (225 tonnes) of all sales of antibiotics
authorised for both pigs and poultry • Of the 64 tonnes active ingredient sold for
use in pigs only, 58 tonnes (91%) was as premix.
• BPC released figures on use (90% of industry) – remaining 65% of total all pig?
Presenting…eMB-Pigs
Key features: - Pig producer responsible for data submission - Participation will be voluntary - Will support compliance with Red Tractor - Trend reports for farmers and vets - Facility to benchmark against similar farms - Similar model to eAML2
Online record of farm level antibiotic use for the UK pig industry, with facility for all medicine recording
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
p/kg
In real terms, February monthly pig price
lowest since February 2000
Chart: GB pig prices (DAPP/SPP) adjusted for inflation Source: AHDB Market Intelligence
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000
tonn
es
Pig meat production has been rising for over a decade…
Chart: UK annual pig meat production Source: Defra
600
650
700
750
800
850
900
950
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
000
tonn
es
PorkBeef/veal
…and last year pork production overtook beef for first time since 2003
Chart: UK annual pig meat and beef/veal production Source: Defra
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
Breedingsows
Feedingpigs
Breedingsows
Feedingpigs
Breedingsows
Feedingpigs
Breedingsows
Feedingpigs
England and Wales Scotland Northern Ireland UK
% c
hang
e December census shows decline in feeding pigs
(unlikely) but rise in breeding herd, led by Scotland & NI
Chart: Changes in pig herd by UK country, December 2014-December 2015 Source: Defra, Scottish Government, DARDNI
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
000 head
2014 2015 2016
Sow slaughterings starting to increase but only slightly above normal levels…
Chart: UK weekly slaughterings of adult sows and boars Source: Defra
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
000 head
2012 2014 2015 2016
…and still well below 2012 peak, so little sign of substantial breeding herd decline (yet)
Chart: UK weekly slaughterings of adult sows and boars Source: Defra
Latest forecasts suggest that production growth will continue but slow down during 2016 before reversing
in 2017
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Year
2014 2015 2016 2017
% change y-o-y
Chart: Actual & forecast year-on-year change in UK pig meat production Source: DEFRA (Actual), AHDB Market Intelligence (Forecasts)
Pork
Pork
Bacon
Bacon
Sausages
Sausages
Processed
Processed
0 200 400 600 800 1,000
Feb 14 to Jan 15
Feb 15 to Jan 16
000 tonnes (product weight)
Still little sign of imports rising much but lower prices mean domestic product has to compete
Chart: UK pig meat imports (product weight) and unit price of pig meat imports Source: HMRC
200
220
240
260
280
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
p/kg
2013 2014 2015 2016
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16
UK
EU
p/kg dw Lack of import growth was despite high UK pig price premium
Chart: UK and EU pig reference prices (grade E) Source: EU Commission
Premium averaged 29p/kg in 2015 and never below 19p/kg
Premium averaging 16p/kg in 2016 and now below 10p/kg
1.15
1.20
1.25
1.30
1.35
1.40
1.45
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
€/£
Some of closing of gap due to weaker pound – could it go lower still?
2014 2015 2016
Chart: Value of £1 in euros Source: Pacific Exchange Rate Service
UK pork exports constrained by exchange rate last year but started 2016 very strongly
Chart: UK pork exports Source: HMRC
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
p/kg
2014 2015 2016
25
35
45
55
65
75
85
95
105
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
000 tonnes
2014 2015 2016
Chinese imports have surged since last summer and remain high for now
Chart: Chinese pork imports Source: China Customs, GTIS
£4.00
£4.20
£4.40
£4.60
£4.80
£5.00
£5.20
£5.40
£5.60
11.5
12
12.5
13
13.5
14
14.5
15
15.5
16
Nov
-10
Feb-
11M
ay-1
1Ju
l-11
Oct
-11
Jan-
12Ap
r-12
Jun-
12Se
p-12
Dec-
12M
ar-1
3M
ay-1
3Au
g-13
Nov
-13
Feb-
14Ap
r-14
Jul-1
4O
ct-1
4Ja
n-15
Mar
-15
Jun-
15Se
p-15
Dec-
15Fe
b-16
£/kg
000
tonn
es
Retail pork sales Retail pork prices (in real terms)
Fresh pork sales have declined steadily, despite falling prices…
Chart: Retail purchases of pork and prices (adjusted for seasonality & inflation) Source: Kantar Worldpanel
11
12
13
14
15
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
000 tonnes
2014 2015 2016
…but sales have moved back above last year recently
Chart: GB retail purchases of fresh/frozen pork Source: Kantar Worldpanel
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
p pe
r kg
Chart: Estimated cost of pig production and average GB pig price (DAPP/APP) Source: AHDB Market Intelligence
Average COP DAPP/APP
Production costs at 5-year low but pig prices even lower
Current price
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16
£/tonne
Nearby contract May-16 contract Nov-16 contract
Feed prices continue to fall and signs good that they will remain low
Chart: UK LIFFE feed wheat futures nearby, May-16 and Nov-16 contract prices Source: AHDB Cereals & Oilseeds
-16%
-14%
-12%
-10%
-8%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8% EU pig numbers stable but breeding herd declines
Total pigsBreeding sows
Chart: Annual change in pig and sow numbers in selected EU Member States, December 2014-2015 Source: EU Commission
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016
% c
hang
e EU pig slaughtering growth slowing down but
won’t fall until later in the year
Chart: Actual and forecast year-on-year change in EU pig slaughterings Source: EU Commission
Actual Forecast
EU pig prices steady in the New Year but hovering around a 10-year low
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
€/10
0 kg
dw
2014 2015 2016
Chart: EU average pig reference price (grade E) Source: EU Commission
Prices forecast to remain close to last year (but higher in sterling terms due to exchange rate)
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
€/10
0 kg
dw
2014 2015 2016 2016 (forecast)
Chart: EU average pig reference price (grade E), actual and forecast Source: EU Commission
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
000
tonn
es
EU exports have been strong since mid-2015
2014 2015 2016
Chart: EU pork exports Source: Eurostat
EU prices didn’t benefit from higher prices elsewhere in 2014 but now had to follow others lower
US$ per kg
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
4.00
4.50
Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16
US Canada Brazil EU
Chart: Average export price for fresh/frozen pork from major exporters (EU, US, Canada, Brazil) Source: GTIS
