the nation’s changing€¦ · intermarriage trend, 1960-2010 (% of marriages involving spouses of...

Hispanic Trends Project

The Nation’s Changing

Demographics

Mark Hugo Lopez

Director of Hispanic Research

The National Plan for Hispanic/Latino Ministry

The United Methodist Church

March 12, 2015

About the Hispanic Trends Project

Pew Hispanic Center established in 2001; rebranded in 2013

Funded by The Pew Charitable Trusts

A part of the Pew Research Center

Purpose is to improve understanding of the diverse Hispanic population in the U.S. and to chronicle the growing impact of this population on the U.S.

“Fact tank,” not a think tank

Hispanics are

the Nation’s Largest Minority Group

Population in millions

The New Face of America

Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey

57%

14%

20%

5%

Ages 18-24

68%

11%

13%

5%

Ages 25 or older Asian

Hispanic

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Black White White

The New Face of America

Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations of the 2010 American Community Survey

51%

14%

25%

5%

Ages 0-5

55%

14%

22%

4%

Ages 6-17 Asian

Hispanic

Black

Asian

Hispanic

Black White White

87% 85% 83% 80% 76%70% 67% 65% 61% 60%

56% 51% 47% 44%

10% 11%11%

12%12%

13%13%

13% 12%12%

13%13%

13%13%

27%29%

13%

5%9%

6%4%3%

16% 18%19%22%

24%

14%

9%8%8%7%6%5%

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

White* Black* Hispanic Asian*

Hispanic Share Rises to 29% by 2060

Source: Pew Research Center population estimates & projections (2008). *Not Hispanic.

Percent of Total Population

Latino Demographics

Four Decades of Growth

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Sources of Hispanic

Population Growth, by Decade

Source: Pew Research Center.

Unauthorized

immigrant children

3.1

4.4

7.0

9.6

3.1

5.6

8.1

6.5

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

U.S. births Immigration

The Share of U.S. Hispanics Who Are

Foreign Born is in Decline …

Source: Pew Research Center.

Unauthorized

immigrant children

38.7

47.5

54.0 55.0

49.8

28.3

35.7

40.1 39.8 35.5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60%

All Hispanics

Hispanic adults

1980 1990 2000 2012

Three Great Waves of Immigrants (% of total)

Notes: Immigrants from Canada and other areas not shown.

Sources: Pew Research Center analysis of Integrated Public Use Microdata Samples for 1980,1990, and 2000 Censuses

and 2008 American Community Survey. 1840-1919 numbers from Table 2 of Yearbook of Immigration Statistics,2008.

Office of Immigration Statistics.

88

88

12

1

3

50

2

3

28

Northern Europe Wave,1840-1889

Southern/Eastern Europe

Wave,1890-1919

Modern Wave,1965-Present

European Latin American Asian

(14 million)

(18 million)

(40 million+)

Hispanic Population is Younger

Native-Born Hispanics are Younger

Ethnic Composition of Latinos, 2012

11.6%

2.0%

2.4%

3.1%

3.7%

3.7%

9.3%

64.2%

Other

Colombian - 1.1

Guatemalan - 1.3

Dominican - 1.6

Salvadoran - 2.0

Cuban - 2.0

Puerto Rican - 4.9

Mexican - 34.0

Source: 2012 American Community Survey

Geographic Distribution of Hispanics

Population in millions

Hispanic Origin Composition, 2010

4%

34%

62%

13%

16%

65%

3% 21%

21%

12%

31%

39%

33%

16%

7% 78%

6%

9%

7%

27%

6%

54%

Atlanta

Los Angeles

New York

Washington

Miami

U.S.

Salvadoran Mexican Puerto Rican Cuban Dominican Other

Source: Pew Hispanic Center tabulations from the 2010 American Community Survey.

Religious Affiliation

among Hispanics

Decline in Share of Catholics

among Hispanics, 2010-2013

Source: Pew Research Center National Surveys of Latinos, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013.

Unauthorized

immigrant children

67 62

58 55

2010 2011 2012 2013

% of Hispanic adults

2013 Religious Affiliation

of Hispanics

Source: Pew Research Center 2013 National Surveys of Latinos

Unauthorized

immigrant children

55%

18%

3%

1%

16%

5%

22% Catholic

Unaffiliated

Protestant

Other

Evangelical

Mainline

Other Christian


Religious Affiliation,

by Nativity and Generation

Unauthorized

immigrant children


% of Hispanics in each nativity group who belong to each religious group

Foreign born U.S. born

2nd

generation

3rd generation

or higher

Catholic 60 48 50 45

Protestant 20 24 22 26

Evangelical 16 16 15 18

Mainline 4 8 8 8

Unaffiliated 15 23 24 23

Other 4 5 4 5

Don’t know * * * 1

100 100 100 100

N 2,595 1,485 869 590

Religious Affiliation,

by Hispanic Origin Group

Unauthorized

immigrant children

% of Hispanics in each Hispanic origin group who belong to each religious group

Mexican

Puerto

Rican Cuban Salvadoran Dominican

Catholic 61 45 49 42 59

Protestant 18 29 17 37 21

Evangelical 13 22 8 32 16

Mainline 5 8 8 5 6

Unaffiliated 17 20 26 15 16

Other 4 6 8 5 3

Don’t know * 0 * 1 1

100 100 100 100 100

N 1,843 540 287 228 272


Religious Activities,

Social Views, Politics

Unauthorized

immigrant children


Religious Change

from Childhood to Today

Unauthorized

immigrant children


77

55

Raised Catholic Currently Catholic

All Hispanics

Net

change

-22

14

22

Raised Protestant Currently Protestant

All Hispanics

Net

change

+8

6

18

Raised Unaffiliated Currently Unaffiliated

All Hispanics

Net

change

+12


Religious Change from Childhood to

Today, Among Foreign-Born Hispanics

Unauthorized

immigrant children


percentage point change in each religious group from childhood to current affiliation

Religious Change from Childhood to

Today, Among U.S.-Born Hispanics

Unauthorized

immigrant children


percentage point change in each religious group from childhood to current affiliation

Unauthorized

immigrant children

Latinos and Identity

Which Term Do You Use

Most Often to Describe Yourself?

Source: Pew Research Center, 2013 National Survey of Latinos and Religion

(%)

54

66

48

20

20

21

20

19

23

10

30

59

All Hispanics

Foreign born

Second generation

Third and highergeneration

Hispanic origin term Hispanic/Latino American

Mixed Views about Identity


“Hispanic” versus “Latino” Preference

Do you think of yourself as a Typical American?

Shared Values among U.S. Hispanics?

(%)

50 33 15

No preference Hispanic Latino

49 44

A typical American Very different from a typical American

39 39 19

A lot Some Only a little/almost nothing

Hispanic Trends

Primary Language Use among Latinos

Source: 2011 National Survey of Latinos

(%)

38

61

8

1

38

33

53

29

24

6

40

69

All Hispanics

First

Second

Third and higher

Spanish dominant Bilingual English dominant

Hispanics by generation

Share Who Speak Spanish

at Home is Projected to Decline % among Hispanics ages 5 and older

Source: Pew Research Center, 2012

Unauthorized

immigrant children

75 74

29 34 23 25

70 66

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90Spanish spoken

at home

1980 2000 2011 1990 2020 2015

Only English spoken at home

Hispanics’ Views of Select Issues


Do you prefer a bigger government providing more services or a smaller government providing fewer services?

Do favor or oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally?

Should abortion be legal in all/most cases or illegal in all/most cases?

(%)

67 21 8

Bigger government, more services Smaller government, fewer services

46 34 19

Favor Oppose Don't know/Refused

39 53 7

Legal in all/most cases illegal in most/all cases Don't know/refused

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations of the 2012 American Community Survey and the 2000 decennial census (1% IPUMS)

Hispanic Children Are a Growing Share

of Public Kindergarten Classes States where 20% or more of kindergartners are Hispanic

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the October 2012 Current Population Survey (CPS)

Racial and Ethnic Composition of

Public Schools by Grade, 2012 (%)

51

45

46

52

53

25

29

27

25

23

16

19

16

15

16

8

8

10

8

8

All

Nursery school

Kindergarten

Elementary

school

High school

White Hispanic Black Other

Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of October Current Population Surveys (CPS)

Hispanic Educational Attainment,

1990 to 2013

8.1 8.9

9.7

11.2

13.5

15.7

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

All Hispanics

(% of 25 to 29 year olds with bachelor’s degree or higher)

Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of October Current Population Surveys (CPS)

Hispanic Educational Attainment,

1990 to 2013

7.3 7.8

8.3

10.2 10.8

13.1

9.1 10.1

11

12.4

16.8

18.6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013

Hispanic Women

Hispanic Men

(% of 25- to- 29-year olds with bachelor’s degree or higher)

Number of Children in Poverty,

1976-2012

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

In thousands

4,782

4,201

5,976

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2012200920062003200019971994199119881985198219791976

WHITES

BLACKS

HISPANICS

35%

39%

6%

25%

50%

'Mar-04

'Sep-04

'Mar-05

'Sep-05

'Mar-06

'Sep-06

'Mar-07

'Dec-07

'Jun-08

'Dec-08

'Jun-09

'Dec-09

'Jun-10

'Dec-10

'Jun-11

Dec-11

Jun-12

Dec-12

Jun-13

Share of Adults who Reside in

Cellphone-Only Households, 2004-2013

Source: National Center for Health Statistics, National Health Interview Survey

Latinos

Black, NH

White, NH

Homeownership Rates, 1995-2011

Source: Pew Hispanic Center analysis of Current Population Survey (CPS) data, 1995-2011.

49.8 47.4

70.5

75.9 73.7

41.9 48.3 45.1

49.1

60.8 58.1

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011

Hispanic

White

Asian

Black 42.1

Intermarriage Trend, 1960-2010

(% of marriages involving spouses of a different race or

ethnicity from each other)

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of the Decennial Census and American Community Survey (ACS) Integrated

Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files

8.48.06.8

4.5

3.2

15.114.5

11.2

8.3

6.7

4.0

2.4

0

5

10

15

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

F

Newly married

Currently married

Intermarriage Rates, by Race and Ethnicity, 2010

Source: Pew Research Center analysis of 2010 ACS Integrated Public Use Microdata Sample (IPUMS) files

9.4

17.1

25.7 27.7

White Black Hispanic Asian

% of newlyweds married to someone of a different race/ethnicity

Contact Information

Mark Hugo Lopez

Director of Hispanic Research

[email protected]

Hispanic Trends Project

Voter Turnout Rates

in Presidential Elections

White, non-Hispanics

Black, non-Hispanics

Latinos

Asian, non-Hispanics

Source: Pew Research Center tabulations from CPS November Supplements, various years

Percent who reported voting among U.S. citizens ages 18 and older

64.1

66.6

48.0

46.9

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012

the nation’s changing€¦ · intermarriage trend, 1960-2010 (% of marriages involving spouses of...

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