The need for process flexibilility and adaptability in view of global trends and growing technological vos atility

PROMETIA SCIENTIFIC BOARD Barcelona, 28 & 29/11/2017

Patrice Christmann, researcher & consultantKrysmine@gmail.com

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Disclaimer

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• This disclaimer forms integral part of the course material and cannot beremoved.

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Outline of the presentation

• Global trends and scenario up to 2050

• The “technology metals case”

• The challenge of managing uncertainty

• The need for resource efficiency

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2000 2015 2030 2050

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Population Middle-Class Urbanisation

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These are the major drivers that will shape the 21st CenturyData sources: UN Population Division; Kharas H. - 2017 - The unprecedented explosion of the global-middle class - An update - Brookings Institute, Global Economy & Development Working Paper 100

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- Energy transition towards the use of low-carbon energy

Aluminium, copper, steel, dysprosium, neodymium, praseodymiumfor windmills

Copper, indium, gallium, selenium, silver, tellurium for phtovoltaics

Lead, vanadium for grid storage

Aluminium, copper

- Electromobility

Cobalt, graphite, lithium, nickel, manganese, dysprosium, neodymium, praseodymium for electric cars

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Aluminium Cement Chromium Copper Lead Manganese1950-2001 period 6,0% 5,5% 4,2% 3,7% 1,7% 2,9%2002-2013 period 5,9% 7,3% 8,0% 2,5% 5,0% 7,4%

Nickel Phosphate Pig Iron Potash Zinc1950-2001 period 4,9% 4,0% 3,6% 5,1% 2,9%2002-2013 period 2,7% 5,0% 5,9% 4,5% 3,5%

Average annual production rates of selected minerals and metals produced in largerquantities, calculated over two reference periods: 1950- 2001 and 2002-2013. The lowest of both values vas used to develop the production scenario 2014 – 2050. Data sources: USGS Data Series 140

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Published in: Christmann P. 2017 - Towards a More Equitable Use of Mineral Resources - Natural Resources Research - Online edition: DOI: 10.1007/s11053-017-9343-6

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Aluminium Cement Chromium Copper Lead Manganese

Nickel Phosphate Pig Iron Potash Zinc

Cement

Al

Potash

CrPhosphate

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Mn, ZnNiCuPb

Annual production scenario 2014-2050 of selected minerals and metals produced in larger quantities, relative growth compared to 2014 (basis 100)

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LONG-TERM SCENARIOS AND TECHNOLOGICAL VOLATILITY

• Scenarios related to « technology metals » are of great value to assess CURRENT TRENDS and to identify precisely WHAT to monitor. But they are not to be confusecwith forecasts. It is impossible to forecast the demand for minerals and metals thatessential used in 1 or a few applications.

• The pace of innovation is such that forecasting beyond a few ( 2 – 3) years appears veryrisky.

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What will be leading Photovoltaic Energy productioi technology by 2030?Source: US DOE – National Renewable Energy Laboratories – Status: 30/10/7https://www.nrel.gov/pv/assets/images/efficiency-chart.png-

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© Matthew Bowden, Wikimedia © KMJ, Wikimedia © Levente Fulop, Wikimedia © V.v.p., Wikimedia

CANDLE GAS TUNGSTEN COMPACT LEDMANTLE LIGHTBULB FLUORESCENT LAMP

TUNGSTENE LAMP

© Levente Fulop, Wikimedia

0,3 lumen/watt 2 lumen/watt 17 lumen/watt 75 lumen/watt > 300 lumen/ watt

TungstenWax Gallium

AN EXAMPLE OF TECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTITIONS TO PROVIDE A SAME SERVICE: LIGHTING

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Average LiCo battery(~60% Co in cathode)

Pure Li-Mn battery Li Ni Mn Co battery(NMC)

Li-P battery Li Ni Mn Co battery(NMC)

Li titanate cathode

What will the 2030 battery market look like? (All graphics from the Battery University –http://batteryuniversity.com/learn/article/types_of_lithium_ion)

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2013 2035Lithium 0 3.9 Lithium-ion batteries, lightweight airframesHREE (Dy/Tb) 0.9 3.1 Magnets, e-cars, wind power

Rhenium 1 2.5 Super alloysLREE (Nd/Pr) 0.8 1.7 Magnets, e-cars, wind power

Tantalum 0.4 1.6 Micro-capacitors, medical technologyScandium 0.2 1.4 SOFC fuel cellsCobalt 0 0.9 Lithium-ion batteries, XTL.Germanium 0.4 0.8 Fibre optic, IR technologyPlatinum 0 0.6 Fuel cells, catalystsTin 0.6 0.5 Transparent electrodes, lead-free soldersPalladium 0.1 0.5 Catalysts, seawater desalinationIndium 0.3 0.5 Displays, thin layer photovoltaicsGallium 0.3 0.4 Thin layer photovoltaics, IC, WLEDSilver 0.2 0.3 RFIDCopper 0 0.3 Electric motors, RFIDTitanium 0 0.2 Seawater desalination, implants

MetalDemand20xx /

Production2013 Emerging technologies

Impact on the global minerals and metals demand, by 2035, of 42 innovative technologies assessed by the German Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research together with the Federal Institute for Geoscience and Raw Materials (BGR) Derived from: Marscheider-Weidemann F., Langkau F., Hummen S., Erdmann L., Tercero Espinoza L., Angerer G., Marwede M., BeneckeS. - 2016 - Rohstoffe für Zukunftstechnologien 2016 - Fraunhofer IRB Verlag, Stuttgart (Germany) - Disponible en ligne: http://www.bgr.bund.de/DERA/DE/Downloads/Studie_Zukunftstechnologien-2016.pdf?__blob=publicationFile&v=3

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• Future collectible metal-bearing waste streams will not-only be widely heterogeneous,in their composition, but also by the nature of the metals and minerals they will include

• Flexible easy-to-adapt processes will be needed as well as the capacity to anticipatemarket variations

• This will need to be done considering metal market prices.

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THE NEED FOR RESOURCES EFFICIENCY

• Mining and metallurgy have deep impacts on the global and local ecosystems thattechnological can partly help to address

• The production of aluminium, cement and steel use about 14% of the current wordenergy production

• In Chile (34% of the world mine copper production) each tonne of copper producedgenerates 99.3 tonnes of tailings which can contain As, Cu, Mo, Re, Te, Se and, in general, the further development of copper mining faces dire constraints thatmetallurgy

• Sustainable development and resource efficiency (ideally: no waste, no emissions, no energy and water use) issues will become of rapidly growing importance if the dire predicaments of global ecosystemic collapse are to br invalidated. A central question is: how much time does humanity still have to change its linear economy paradigm

• Metallurgy jas an important role to play in this.

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According to the projections established by COCHILCO, the Chilean Copper Commission (Ministry of Mines), Chile’s copper production may grow very little (less than 2% from 2015 to 2027) due to interdependent energy and water availability issues. In 2014, Chile produced 31% of the world copper…

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Thank you for yourattention

andImagine…

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