The New Demographics of Higher Education

Will DoyleNational Press Foundation

Business of Higher Education Seminar10/30/06

Projections of Population Aged 18-24, 2006-2050

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates

Projections of Population Aged 18-24 2006-2050White Non-Hispanics Only

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates

Projections of Population Aged 18-24 2006-2050African-Americans Only

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates

Projections of Population Aged 18-24 2006-2050Asians Only

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates

Projections of Population Aged 18-24 2006-2050Hispanics Only

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates

Projections of Population Aged 18-24 2006-2050All Racial/Ethnic Groups

Projections of Percent of Population Aged 18-24 by State

States with 10% or more increase in 18-24 Year Old Population, 2005-2030

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates

Projected Dependency Ratio, 2000-2100Under 15 and Over 65

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

80

1990 1995 1998 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Dep

ende

ncy

Rat

io

Low Immigration

Middle Immigration

High Immigration

Actual Projected

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates

Projected Dependency Ratio, 2000-2100 65 and over only

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1990 1995 1998 2000 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100

Dependency Ratio (65+)

Low Immigration

Middle Immigration

High Immigration

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Projection Estimates

Population Pyramid, 2000

Population Pyramid, 2025

Population Pyramid, 2050

Percent of Adult Population With Advanced Tertiary Degrees

16

29

26

22

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Norway

United States

Canada

Korea

JapanNo data for 1997

Source: OECD, Education at a Glance: OECD Indicators (1996-2003)

Percent of Population aged 25-34 With an Advanced Tertiary Degree

37

19

30

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Norway

United States

Korea

Canada

Japan

No data for 1997

Source: OECD, Education at a Glance: OECD Indicators (1996-2003)

Growth in Population With a Bachelor’s Degree

95

40

1513

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Norway

Canada

United States

Korea

Japan

No data for 1997

Source: OECD, Education at a Glance: OECD Indicators (1996-2003)

Output Per Hour, All Businesses

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Major Sector Productivity and Costs

Total Revenues per Bachelor’s , 1959-2001

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

150,000

170,000

190,000

210,000

230,000

250,000

1960

-61

1962

-63

1964

-65

1966

-67

1968

-69

1970

-71

1972

-73

1974

-75

1976

-77

1978

-79

1980

-81

1982

-83

1984

-85

1986

-87

1988

-89

1990

-91

1992

-93

1994

-95

1996

-97

1998

-99\

4\

2000

-01

1960: 92,169

1970: 127,4131980:146,565

1990: 180,277

1999 232,076:

Source: NCES, Digest of Education Statistics, 2005