the new is-lm microfoundations allow to –address the lucas critique –perform welfare analysis...
TRANSCRIPT
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The New IS-LM
• Microfoundations allow to– Address the Lucas critique– Perform welfare analysis– Integrate intertemporal budget constraints and
expectations.
• The new microfoundations include– Sticky (but endogenous) prices, usually staggered– A motive for holding money– Monopolistic competition by firms selling differentiated
products
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The Krugman model
• Endowmen economy
• A representative consumer maximizes PDV of utility
• One must hold enough cash to purchase consumption
• All variables are constant from t=2 on = the long run
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• Prices are flexible from t=2 on
• Prices may be rigid at t=1
• The model may be used to analyze the role of a liquidity trap
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Preferences
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Timing
a b
t t+1
a b
Trade bonds for cashGet Mt, Bt
TradeConsumePay taxes
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The second sub-period:
• At t-b, I have an endowment yt that I must trade to consume
• I can’t consume more than my money holdings: PtCt <= Mt
• The government issues money and bonds, levies taxes, and rebates seignorage:
• Net tax Tt = TAXt – (Mt+1 – Mt).
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The first subperiod
• People exchange money for bonds
• Bonds pay a nominal interest rate it between date t-a and date t+1-a
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The budget constraint
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The optimization problem
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The Euler equation
• Substituting the value of μ into the FOC for consumption and dividing between two consecutive periods we get the Euler equation
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The long run
• For t >= 1, Mt = M*, Yt = Y*
• Prices are fully flexible Ct = C* = Yt = Y*
• Assume prices are constant: Pt = P*
• Then it = i* = 1/δ – 1 from Euler
• CIA must then be binding
• This condition determines the price level: P* = M*/Y*
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The short run: IS
• At t=0, variables differ from their long-run values.• The Euler equation gives us a relationship
between C, i and P• It is similar to the IS curve• Expectations about future activity play a role• Inflationary expectations also play a role
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C
i
IS
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The short run: LM
• If the CIA constraint is binding, then i > 0 and C = M/P.
• If the CIA constraint is not binding, then i = 0 and C < M/P
• This defines an L-shaped LM curve
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i
C
LM
M/P
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The flexible price case
• The IS and LM curve can be rewritten in the (p,i) plane
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Regime 1: CIA binding
IS
LM
M/Y
p
i
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Regime I is like a purely « real » model
• Price is proportional to money, P = M/Y
• Real interest rate is determined by intertemporal MRS: 1+r = (Y/Y*)-ρ/δ
• Nominal interest rate determined by Fisher equation 1+i = (1+r)P*/P =(1+r)(1+π)
• This regime holds if M < (Y/Y*)-ρ/δ.P*Y
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Regime 2: CIA not binding
IS
LM
M/Y
p
i
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Regime II is a Liquidity trap
• Nominal interest rate is zero money is useless at the margin
• The price level is determined by expectations and activity, does not respond to money: P = (Y/Y*)-ρP*/δ
• This regime takes place if M >(Y/Y*)-ρ/δ.P*Y
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Determination of P
• Unresponsive to current money
• Higher if future prices are higher
• Higher if future activity is higher
• Higher if current activity is lower
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What’s going on?
• Given the future, the real interest rate must be such that C = Y
• To understand the adjustment, assume future activity Y* goes up
• Regime I: I want to consume more, need more money, sell bonds for cash, the nominal rate goes up, so does the real rate, I prefer to postpone consumption.
• Regime II: I don’t need more money, excess demand for goods, price level goes up, increases the real rate, I prefer to postpone consumption.
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Another interpretation
• There exists an equilibrium rate of return r• This defines the maximum rate of
deflation; higher rates would imply i<0• The larger M, the larger the rate of
deflation at which people are willing to hold it (ROR on money = -deflation)
• When this required rate is more than the maximum, the economy is in a liquidity trap
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LT is more likely when
• Current consumption is too low relative to real money, i.e. when
• M is large
• P* is low
• Y* is low
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Rigid prices
• P is fixed, and the standard IS-LM diagram is used
• One is in that regime provided it yields C < Y
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Rigid prices: regime I
• CIA is binding: C = M/P (AD)
• An increase in M raises C and lowers i
• An increase in Y* raises C and i
• An increase in P* raises C and i
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Rigid prices: regime II
• C determined by Euler with i=0
• Monetary policy is ineffective
• One may get rid of the LT by reducing the money stock to move the economy to regime I, but it is contractionary
• Otherwise, one must increase expectations of future activity and/or inflation
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Ricardian equivalence
• In standard IS-LM, budget deficits shift the IS curve and increase output
• Here, as long as PDV(taxes)=PDV(expenditure), consumption does not react to the timing of debt
• Debt accumulation is useless to get you out of the liquidity trap
• If taxes are distortionary, it can actually be harmful