the new quantitative era - predictive analytics world · 2011. 3. 21. · the new quantitative era...
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The New Quantitative Era Creating Successful Business Change with Analytics
Tom Davenport
Babson College/International Institute for Analytics
Data Driven Business Week
March 15, 2011
The New Quantitative Era
• New management
• New decisions
• New methods
• New relationships
• New skills
• New architectures
• New cultures
Under New Management
Web analytics+
Marketing +
Actuarial +
Predictive + Supply chain/OR
HR analytics+
=
Enterprise Analytics!
New Decision Approaches
Decide on important decisions
Make the decisions better
Systematic Review
Institution- alization
Most Common Decision
Interventions
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Type of Intervention
Average number mentioned per decision: 5.3!
Multiple Interventions:
Pricing Decisions at Stanley
• Pricing one of four key decision domains
• Pricing CoE in 2003
• Adopted new pricing methodologies
• New pricing optimization software
• Regular “Gross Margin Calls”
• Offshore group for competitive pricing
• Automated pricing for promotions
• Center spreads innovations
• Result: gross margin from 34% to over 40% in
six years
Closing the Decision Loop:
Systematic Review
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►Tom Brady: “a student of error”
►The Army’s “After Action Review”
►Providence Regional Medical Center in Everett, Washington
► “The hospital set up an independent panel to investigate medical mistakes, disclose its findings to the patient, and voluntarily offer a financial award if warranted. As a result, Providence has only two malpractice suits pending, compared with an average of 12 to 14 at other hospitals of similar size.” (Business Week, Jan. 7, 2010)
Institutionalized Decision Processes at
Chevron
• Decision analysis group gets attention by
recommending against refinery project
• DA group leads decision workshops
• Builds economic/analytical models
• Projects >$100M require decision analysis
• Ex post facto assessment of decision quality
required for large projects
• DA group has trained more than 2500 decision-
makers, and has certified 10,000 (including the CEO)
through online training
• “Culture of honesty and self-examination”
New Methods: Agile Analytics
• Old method:
– get requirements
– start gathering data and coding
– come back 9 months later with
proposed solution
– find out it’s not what the decision-
maker wanted
• New method:
– A series of user-driven deliverables,
with frequent outputs and check-ins
Agile Analytics at Cisco
1. What tool? 2. Better forecast accuracy
3. Tune models 4. Scale the models
5. Formal signoff
6. Automate models
7. Testing
8. Go live
Effective Analytics Are About
Relationships
• Analytics people have to work
closely with:
– IT organizations
– Business decision-makers
– Outside ecosystem members
• Communications are critical, and are rarely taught in schools!
• Need skill and responsibility overlaps
“Decision Engineering” at Intel
• Karl Kempf: “It’s not about the math”
• Two relationship goals:
– Get the business person to have a
little interest and respect for the math
person
– Get the math person to have a big
interest and a lot of respect for the
business person
• The math person must understand the
intuition and speak the language of the
business person
New Skills
What New Skills?
“Tell a story with
data”
“Help frame the decision”
“Don’t just identify the problem, fix it!”
“Stand firm when necessary”
New Analytical
Architectures
Old BI
Analyst Sandbox
Embedded Analytics
Analytical Apps
Professional Analysts
Business Users
Multi- Purpose
Single- Purpose
Application Breadth
Primary Users
Why Analytical Apps for
Business Users?
• BI and analytics packages too
difficult to use
• Large data warehouses too
hard to navigate
• Shift to mobile devices
• Many decisions needing
analytical support
• Personalize analysis to the
industry and role
Some Actual
Analytical Apps
• Nursing productivity in health care
• Field sales hiring analysis in
pharma
• Truck loading analysis in retail
• Mortgage portfolio analysis in
banking
• Financial planning and modeling in
government
New Analytical Cultures
Facts, evidence, analysis as the primary way of deciding
Pervasive “test and learn” emphasis where there aren’t facts
Free pass for pushbacks—”Where’s your data?”
Never resting on your analytical laurels
Keep in Mind…
►A new model for analytics is emerging
► It will require new management approaches and new ecosystems
►Analytical leaders at every level can have an impact
►Ultimately it’s about making better decisions
►This is not business as usual—there is an historic opportunity to transform your industry and function!